Israeli General Election 2013

[danny]

Is this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HaYisraelim) a different party with the same name, or is it the same thing? 'Doron' doesn't sound like a Russian immigrant's name, but perhaps it was Hebraized. In any case, the introduction of constituency seats is something I personally staunchly support. First reaction is quite positive.

As far as I can tell, the party that ran in 2009 effectively ceased to exist after their failure.

If you want to start a new party in Israel you have two choices:
1) Register as a new party for which you need 100 signatures and pay 42,182NIS, an example of this in the current election is Yesh Atid.
2) Take over a different party that has already registered previously, with the former parties consent, an example of this in the current election is The Movement which took over Hetz, a Shinui splinter party.

This is the case of the second choice, where the new Russian people took over the unrelated party you found out about. Since you know Russian, you can find more about the party here.

[danny]

Poll from Globes:

Likud Beitenu: 35
Labour: 17
JH-NU: 16
Yesh Atid: 12
Shas: 10
The Movement: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 6
Hadash: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3

[danny]

Why such divergent figures for JH-NU from the various polling outfits?

They seem to currently be on an upwards trajectory, most polls lately have given them 11-12, so this latest poll is either an outlier or it is showing further gains.

[danny]

Polling must show the "left" as a brand as being toxic, as only Meretz and Hadash call themselves that. Shelly gave an interview today in which she said that "Labour is not a left wing party and never has been a left wing party... Yitzhak Rabin was a hawk in his views." Livni and Lapid call their parties centre.

[danny]

Another poll amongst "Russians" (previous poll from a week ago in brackets):

Likud Beitenu: 70% (68%)
The Movement: 8% (9%)
JH-NU: 7% (4%)
Labour: 6% (4%)
The Israelis: 4% (0%)
Kadima: 4% (4%)
Yesh Atid: 1% (4%)

everyone else with 0%.

[danny]

New poll from channel 2:

Likud Beitenu: 35
Labour: 19
JH-NU: 12
Shas: 11
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Hadash: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Meretz: 3
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 2
Am Shalem: 2

The site also continues the annoying Israeli tradition of providing little tidbits from the internals but not a file with all of the internals like you get in the US.

what they do mention is about JH-NU:
1) A third of their voters define themselves as Secular or traditionalist.
2) Two thirds of their voters are under age 40.
3) Amongst voters under age 30, they are the biggest party.

Also, a third of Yesh Atid voters consider themselves right wing.

[danny]

A funny event today in the knesset. Because of the resignation of Amir Peretz from the knesset, the next person on Labour's list was sworn in. This person happenned to be Yoram Marziano, a Labour MK until 2009. But in a twist, Marziano used his swearing in to announce his resignation from the party and support for Bibi in the elections.

[danny]

New poll from Ma'ariv:

Likud Beitenu: 37
Labour: 20
JH-NU: 12
Shas: 11
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 7
UTJ: 6
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 3
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 2
-------election threshold------
Am Shalem: 1
Kadima: 1

They also had a profile of voters for right wing parties, not including the Haredi (I.E Likud, JH-NU and Otzma)

Religion: secular 54%, traditionalist 27%, national religious 11%, national haredi or haredi 8%.

Age: 18-30 29%, 31-64 55%, 65+ 16%.

Gender: female 58%, male 42%.

Do you support a demilitarized Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria?
66% against
11% support
23% other/dk

Do you support Israeli construction between Jerusalem and Ma'ale Adumim (E1)?
9% against
51% support
40% other/dk

Do you support giving Jews te right to pray at the temple mount?
7% against
71% support
22% other/dk

Do you support higher taxes on the rich?
49% against
41% support
10% other/dk

Should the high court cancel laws of the knesset if it is necessary?
38% against
41% support
21% other/dk

If you could add class time in schools, which subject would you add?
51% science
31% Judaism
18% other/dk

[danny]

There seems to be a ridiculous amount of party switching and floor-crossing in Israel - more than in just about any other country i know of. I usually associate constant party switching with newly democratized countries in the developing world where there is no mature political culture and parties tend to be just temporary "flags of convenience"

Isn't there any loyalty in Israel? Doesn't anyone believe in anything?

This is because of the Israeli electoral system which makes it particularly convenient to do so. Ideological people also split and merge.

[danny]

New poll from mako:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 18
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 10
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Meretz: 4
Otzma Leisrael: 3
Hadash: 3
Balad: 2
Am Shalem: 2

[danny]

Cartoon faces are quite normal in Israel, as for the rest of the poll:

Likud Beitenu: 35
Labour: 17
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 13
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2

Which politician do you believe the most?

Bibi: 18%
Bennet: 14%
Livni: 10%
Deri: 9%
Shelly: 9%
Lapid: 7%
Lieberman: 5%
None of them: 22%

which politician cares the most about you and your problems?

Shelly: 17%
Bibi: 9%
Deri: 9%
Lapid: 7%
Bennet: 7%
Livni: 5%
Lieberman: 4%
None of them: 33%

Who do you trust on security issues?

Bibi: 38%
Bennet: 9%
Livni: 8%
Shelly: 4%


Who do you trust on economic issues?

Bibi: 37%
Shelly: 14%
Livni: 6%
Bennet: 4%

[danny]

New poll from walla:

Likud Beitenu: 35
Labour: 18
JH-NU: 15
The Movement: 11
Shas: 10
Yesh Atid: 10
UTJ: 6
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3

[danny]

Rehet Bet poll:


Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 15
Shas: 13
The Movement: 11
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3

[danny]

Interesting chart for those who are not so familiar with Israeli parties (like me):

It's interesting but I wouldn't really agree with everything there.

For instance, I don't see why The Movement (Hatnuah) is more secular than Yesh Atid or more right wing than Labour (Peretz defected from Labour to The Movement because Labour wasn't talking enough about peace). Also the entire campaign of Am Shalem is attacking Shas (and even Likud) from a more "secular" standpoint. Also The Jewish Home (Habayit Hayehudi) is definitely more right wing than Likud, certainly as long as Bibi is in charge, even though some of the Likud's members are similar to the Jewish home's opinions.

[danny]

I was under the impression Balad has a vaguely Ba'athist, "socialist Arab unity" ideology affiliated with the Assad regime...

Arab parties are not my expertise but  that is my understanding. I don't know if this is still their view, but here is a video of their previous leader, Azmi Bishara calling the "Palestinian People" a colonialist invention, and that Palestine is southern greater Syria.

[danny]

New poll:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 18
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 10
The Movement: 8
Yesh Atid: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 3
Am Shalem: 2

[danny]

And here is an election compass if you want to know whee you stand compared to the different parties, I came closest to the Likud.

[danny]

And I just read that Mitzna is now on board with Hatnua.  Facepalm.  Mitzna in a party lead by the woman that went around the world so vigorously defending Operation Cast Lead.  What has this world come to...

He came from the party which the had the minister of defence as its leader during cast lead, so I'm not sure this reaction is warranted.

[danny]

Balad and Hadash have identical or very close positions on nearly all issues. For what reasons Arab voters support Hadash? Two parties have the same ideology (socialism, secularism) but Balad is obviously preferable for Arabs due to its more clear pro-Palestinian stance.

I'm pretty sure more Hadash voters are Jews than Muslims, though they're the only party with significant cross-community support, thus being labeled as an Arab party. They are also the party for those Muslims who see cooperation with (pro-peace) Jews as essential--basically, less radical, for voters who don't harbor a real hatred of Israel as a concept.

Anyway, I landed about equidistant from Ta'al, Labor and Hatnu'a.

About 90% of Hadash voters are are Arab. I don't think the differences between voting Hadash and Balad are very ideological, but rather are more personality based.

[danny]

And I just read that Mitzna is now on board with Hatnua.  Facepalm.  Mitzna in a party lead by the woman that went around the world so vigorously defending Operation Cast Lead.  What has this world come to...

He came from the party which the had the minister of defence as its leader during cast lead, so I'm not sure this reaction is warranted.

But surely on that basis he would have left earlier anyway? Bizarre defection.

You misunderstood, As far as I know Mitzna wasn't opposed to cast lead (if he did, he couldn't have made much of a fuss about it). It's just that Mitzna's reasoning for the defection is from the left, saying that Labour has stopped talking about peace.

[danny]

About 90% of Hadash voters are Are Arab. I don't think the differences between voting Hadash and Balad are very ideological, but rather are more personality based.

you obviously haven't spoken to many Balad or Hadash voters. Hadash gets roughly 10K Jewish vote across the country (though in 2009 they nicked some votes from Meretz and got 13K Jewish votes cast to them). This time Meretz and Da'am will both dig into Hadash Jewish and Arab strength.

5# in Meretz's list is Isawi Farig from the triangle region and he is aiming to bring 60K arab votes to Meretz.

I'm not sure in what way you are disagreeing with me here, Hadash got 112K votes in the last election, 10-13K would be about 10%.

[danny]

About 90% of Hadash voters are Are Arab. I don't think the differences between voting Hadash and Balad are very ideological, but rather are more personality based.

you obviously haven't spoken to many Balad or Hadash voters. Hadash gets roughly 10K Jewish vote across the country (though in 2009 they nicked some votes from Meretz and got 13K Jewish votes cast to them). This time Meretz and Da'am will both dig into Hadash Jewish and Arab strength.

5# in Meretz's list is Isawi Farig from the triangle region and he is aiming to bring 60K arab votes to Meretz.

I'm not sure in what way you are disagreeing with me here

Maybe with the "not very ideological" bit?

He should expand on the differences between them then, I admit that the Arab parties are those that I know the least about.

[danny]

1. What are main differences between Hatnuah, Yeash Atid and Kadima besides different party leaders? I understand only that Hatnuah is probably to the left of others on Palestinian issue.

This is the biggest difference, but Hatnuah is definitely to the left of those, and is also positioning itself to the left of Labour (in the very Israeli sense of the word).

2. Am Shalem is a split from right-wing and religious Shas. So why is it situated in centre on compass, on some issues even to the left of centrist parties? Is Am Shalem simply a moderate version of Shas?

Amsalem doesn't talk about left/right issues in this campaign, although in the past he was no less right wing than a Shas MK is expected to be. The parties single issue is opposing Shas and what it stands for on religious issues, and calling Shas a corrupt party and stooges for the Lithuanians (Litvishers).

[danny]

A hypothetical poll from mako in the case that Israel returned to a separate vote for PM.

Knesset:
Likud Beitenu: 23
JH-NU: 17
Labour: 15
Yesh Atid: 14
The Movement: 12
Shas: 11
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 3
Am Shalem: 3

PM:
Bibi: 37%
Livni: 18%
Bennet: 12%
Shelly: 12%
Lapid: 4%
Deri: 4%
Eldad: 4%
Mofaz: 3%
Galon: 1%
other: 5%

[danny]

Walla [urlhttp://news.walla.co.il/elections/?w=/2780/2602368]poll[/url]:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 18
JH-NU: 15
Shas: 11
Yesh Atid: 10
The Movement: 10
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 2
Kadima: 2

Profile of JH-NU voters:

Gender:

male 53%
female 47%

age:

18-29: 27.2%
30-49: 40.4%
50+: 32.4%

religion:

national religious: 52.9%
traditionalist: 24.2%
secular: 18.6%
haredi: 1.6%
no response: 2.8%


Also 71% of Yesh Atid and 69% of The Movement voters are secular.