Political Ad Megathread

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The ad buys for next week's states, Utah and Arizona, are starting to come into the stations' FCC political files.  All of Utah is in the Salt Lake City market, making it easy to track.  Arizona is split between 3 in-state markets (Phoenix, Tucson, Yuma), with a small part of the state (northern Apache County) in the Albuquerque market.

So far, Ted Cruz and John Kasich have made Utah ad buys.  Trump has not.  According to his approximately $52,000 KSL-TV ad buy, Kasich is spending almost $175,000 in the market.  Cruz's KSL-TV ad buy is currently smaller than Kasich's - about $37,000 for 77 spots over the next week, compared to Kasich's $52,000 buy for 166 spots.  Kasich is buying much more cheap daytime TV than Cruz, while some of Cruz's buy is for prime time spots.  

Cruz's KSL-TV contract didn't include competitive market data, so it's not clear if Cruz is spending less than Kasich on all other Utah TV stations, too.  Cruz is outspending Kasich $44,895 to $5,600 on ABC affiliate KTVX so far.  Cruz filings for Salt Lake City's CBS and Fox affiliates are not in the stations' political files yet.

Bernie Sanders is also up on KSL-TV, and is spending almost $95,000 statewide on :30 second spots and almost $56,000 on 1:00 spots.  

There are no Clinton or SuperPAC filings for KSL-TV yet.  However, anti-Trump Club For Growth has made a $92,000 Utah ad buy according to filings from KTVX.

Clinton and Sanders are also up in Tucson and Phoenix.  Cruz seems to have canceled a buy on KVOA in Tucson, though it's not clear whether the campaign will substitute another buy yet.  Trump and Kasich aren't up at all in Arizona so far.

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Club For Growth released a :30 second ad today, Trump will betray us on healthcare., which compares Trump's position on healthcare with Hillary Clinton's, and tells voters to "ask Donald Trump why he sides with Hillary Clinton and why he wants more government health care."

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Three new ads have been released so far today, two from Cruz and one from Kasich's New Day for America PAC:

The Cruz campaign released the following two ads, one of which has :30 second and 1:30 second versons:
-In the Utah-specific :30 Second Lee, Utah Senator Mike Lee explains why he supports Cruz - he promised he would stand up to an overbearing federal government, fight Obamacare, stand up for the second amendment and fight for religious liberty - and has kept those promises.
-In Grant (:30, 1:30), a father whose son, Grant, was shot to death working at an Arizona convenience store by an illegal alien who wasn't deported on time due to Obama's executive action causing a lag in deportations, endorses Cruz because he trusts he will tear up Obama's illegal executive actions on immigration.

Pro-Kasich PAC New Day for America released Win, which argues that voters in Ohio took the first step to defeat Hillary Clinton, as John Kasich is the only one beating her in the polls and is presidential.

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I haven't paid much attention to the Democrats' YouTube TV ads thus far.  Bernie Sanders' YouTube page is barely active, with only 4 new videos over the past 3 weeks.

Hillary Clinton has released a few TV ads on her YouTube page in the past three weeks:
1) The 1:00 minute Real Life features famous Hollywood actresses who play strong women on TV saying that the real world has Hillary Clinton, a bona-fide, rolls up her sleeve champion for all of us.  They're with Hillary.
2) The :30 second Gabby from about 2 weeks ago features former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords endorsing Hillary Clinton because she's tough and will stand up to the gun lobby.
3) The :30 second The Letter from South Carolina about 3 weeks ago features the mayor of Columbia, SC endorsing Hillary because he wrote an open letter to his daughters explaining why he is spending so much time fighting for Hillary Clinton - she'll get equal pay for women, make college more affordable, beat the Republicans and fight for an America where all of our sons and daughters have the chance to reach their God-given potential.
4) The Morgan Freeman-narrated :30 second Stand, also from about 3 weeks ago, argues that Clinton stands with the mothers of police violence, speaks for Flint and stands with the President against those who would undo his achievements.
5) The Morgan Freeman-narrated 1:00 minute All the Good is a biographical ad detailing Clinton's past fight for the minority rights and legal aid explains how she has and will break barriers.  It is also from 3 weeks ago.

I'm not going to go back further - but Clinton's earlier ads are on her YouTube channel if you want to see them.

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Is she airing the Gabby ad in AZ?

It's from 2 weeks ago, but I would think Clinton would be.  She certainly should be running it in the Tucson market, at least.  I have no way of knowing for sure, though.

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The Arizona ad wars are really starting to heat up on the Republican side, with Trump and the new pro-Cruz Trusted Leadership PAC going on-air in Phoenix.  Tucson Trump ad buys are also starting to show up in the political files.

According to the CBS5 Phoenix filings, here's what the candidates/PACs are spending in the Phoenix market so far:
Trump $201,759
Trusted Leadership PAC $360,911

Clinton $146,718 (:30 second ads) + $138,093 (:60 second ads) = $284,182
Sanders $420,867 (:30 second ads) + $165,281 (:60 second ads) = $585,968

In the Tucson market, we only have marketwide breakdowns for Clinton and Sanders, courtesy of the KOLD-TV (CBS) filings:
Clinton $32,903 (:30 second ads) + $32,774 (:60 second dads) = $65,677
Sanders $141,361 (:30 second ads) + $92,210 (:60 secon ads) = $233,571

So far in Tucson, Trump is spending $10,480 for 58 spots on KGUN (ABC) and $2,275 for 28 spots on KMSB (FOX).  There is nothing in the Tucson political files for Cruz or any Cruz PAC yet.

Nobody is advertising on Yuma TV.

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Three PACs are now up on Utah TV - anti-Trump Club for Growth, pro-Cruz Trusted Leadership PAC, and pro-Kasich New Day for America.  The filings are still not complete (we're missing a likely Cruz buy on KUTV (CBS) and a Cruz PAC buy on KTVX (ABC), along with a few minor reported buys by a few candidates on KJZZ (Independent).  Here is the size of the buys on the 5 network Salt Lake City stations so far:

Cruz                                                         $104,525        246 ads
Kasich                                                     $174,950        464 ads
New Day for America PAC (Pro-Kasich)    $65,725          61 ads
Trusted Leadership PAC (Pro-Cruz)           $146,280        128 ads
Club For Growth (Anti-Trump)                   $205,675        395 ads

Sanders                                                   $225,975      491 ads (:30 and :60)

As of earlier this evening when I compiled the data, neither Trump nor Clinton were up on Utah TV.

Of course, not all ads cost the same.  Prime time ads cost more than daytime ads, and higher priority non-preemptable ads cost more than lower-priority ads.  I've tallied the daypart/type of ads that each candidate/PAC has ordered on KSL-TV:

Cruz   $37,330 for 77 ads (36 news, 7 prime time, 17 daytime, 17 other)
Kasich $52,430 for 166 ads (85 news, 0 prime time, 60 daytime, 21 other)
New Day for America PAC (Pro-Kasich) $14,775 for 21 ads (17 news, 1 prime time, 3 daytime)
Trusted Leadership PAC (Pro-Cruz) $28,680 for 63 ads (45 news, 0 prime time, 18 daytime)
Club For Growth (Anti-Trump) $46,580 for 99 ads (63 news, 4 prime time, 28 daytime, 4 other)

Sanders $38,295 for 74 ads (49 news, 1 prime time, 17 daytime, 7 other)

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A few new campaign TV ads were released today and yesterday:

-The Kasich campaign released a :15 second ad, Please Caucus for Gov. John Kasich, featuring Mitt Romney extolling the virtues of John Kasich at a campaign rally earlier in the month.  It's not clear whether this will end up on TV, as I don't think the Kasich campaign has any :15 second spots reserved yet.  Two :15 second spots usually cost 60% more than your typical :30 second ad.

-Anti-Trump Our Principles PAC released the :30 second Imagination, which features excerpts from Mitt Romney's anti-Trump speech at Utah's Hinckley Institute from earlier this month.  I'll discuss Our Principles PAC's Utah media buy in the next post.

-Pro-Clinton WomenVotes released a :15 second ads on the virtues of Hillary Clinton.  In Can't Find Affordable Child Care? Give 'Em Hill, the group argues when child care costs more than your rent, you give them Hill, who has a plan on that.  It's not clear that this ad has or will ever end up on TV.

Pro-Clinton WomenVotes Project has released a number of similar :15 second ads in the past few weeks:
1) When Your College Loans Are Taking Over Your Life... give 'em Hill.
2) It's Called Women's Health Care - when politicians tell you what to do with your body... give 'em Hill.
3) Held To A Different Standard? Give 'em Hill argues that Hillary is indeed inspirational given the jobs she has held in the past.
4) Paid Less? Give 'em Hill - when bro who has the same job makes more than you ... give 'em Hill.

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Trump and the anti-Trump Our Principles PAC are now up in Utah.  Trump's buy is at least $74,465 for 217 spots - though, like with Cruz, we don't know the size of his buy on market spending-leading KUTV (CBS).  Trump is spending $12,040 for 41 ads on KSL-TV (NBC) (25 news, 3 prime time, 7 daytime, 6 Other).

Our Principles PAC reportedly made a $250,000 Utah ad buy, but the data from the FCC filings in so far doesn't bear that out.  According to the data, so far, Our Principles PAC is spending $46,340 on two Utah stations for 74 spots.  On KSL, the PAC is spending $29,185 for 45 ads (37 news, 6 prime time, 2 other).  It is possible that the PAC is spending on cable ads, which don't get tracked by the FCC.  

Sanders has upped his ad spending on some Utah stations, buying even more ads.  Clinton isn't even advertising in the state.

Pro-Cruz Trusted Leadership PAC has also increased its ad buys to a reported $195,727 marketwide.  I can account for about $170,000 of that for 197 ads through the FCC filings so far.

I haven't thoroughly checked the Arizona filings, but I don't see any Cruz ad buys there yet.  The pro-Cruz Trusted Leadership PAC is spending $383,200 in the Phoenix market, though.

Edit: I found the KUTV filings.  Our Principles PAC is spending $173,950 on that station for 51 spots, including $10,000 spots during the NCAA Basketball Tournament.  So, yes, they are indeed making a $250,000 buy in the Utah market.  The Trump campaign is spending $49,125 for 35 KUTV spots; Cruz is spending $79,675 for 83 spots.  With KUTV, that brings the Utah TV spending for the top 3 Republican candidates to:

Cruz                  $184,200      329 ads
Kasich               $174,950      464 ads
Trump               $123,590      252 ads

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Cruz's new SuperPAC of SuperPACs, Trusted Leadership PAC, recently created a YouTube Channel.  They posted one ad 3 days ago:

In the :30 second Ready on Day One, the PAC focuses on Cruz's fights against Obamacare and for religious liberty and the Ten Commandments to argue that he is ready on day one.

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Pro-Kasich New Day for America PAC released a :30 second ad on YouTube today:

- In Suggest, the PAC argues that voters should vote Kasich because he is the only one who can defeat Hillary Clinton, citing the polls.

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The now Pro-Cruz and always Anti-Trump Club for Growth released a :30 second TV ad to YouTube today:

-In "Math" to Stop Donald Trump, Club for Growth argues that only Cruz can beat Donald Trump in the delegate math, and a vote for Kasich helps Trump by dividing the opposition.

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Anyone care to guess what the top network/syndicated TV show for poltiical ad spending is this cycle?

Hint: It somewhat has to do with who's watching and available local inventory for local TV commercials.  And it's the same answer as in the full 2012 cycle.
Answer. 

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Three new Cruz ads and two new Anti-Trump Our Principles PAC ads were released on YouTube today.  All are :30 seconds.

Cruz's ads are largely focused at Wisconsin:
1) Every Day Fighter, features a presumably auto shop owner who says Donald Trump's empty promises won't cut it and we need a principled leader like Ted Cruz who has a real plan to turn things around.
2) Worried features Ted Cruz speaking to American families who are worried that they are falling behind, about their jobs and their freedom, telling them that he is running for President to restore opportunity, raise wages, bring jobs back to America, reverse the damage Obama has done, restore the Constitution, etc.  It includes a vote April 5 message, so it is targeted at Wisconsin.
3)  Tax Plan features Ted Cruz and a voice over artist highlighting Ted Cruz's tax plan.

Our Principles PAC put 4 of its ad on its public YouTube channel, but we've already highlighted two before they were publicly released.  The two totally new ads are:
1) "Trust", highlighting Trump's prior non-conservative positions on universal health care, gun control and eminent domain, using Trump's own words.  It ends "Can we trust Donald Trump?"  To do that, the paid for by Our Principles PAC message is at the front of the ad, although it correctly includes the four-second written paid-for message at the end.
2) "Know" is similar to "Trust", except that it highlight's Trump's prior position on partial birth abortion in addition to universal health care and gun control.

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I added Rocky de La Fuente's YouTube Channel to the list on the front page of this post.  He has been advertising in some states, usually making small TV buys.  Yesterday, De La Fuente added an Alaskan-specific ad to the channel - though I'm not sure if he is actually airing it.

-Rocky, Coming to an Alaskan Democratic Caucus Near You starts by saying how Rocky is running for President, even though you may not know it.   He got signatures of ordinary people to get on the ballot.  It also highlights De La Fuente as a successful entrepreneur, and asks for Alaksans' votes.

De La Fuente actually aired this ad, We the People 30s, on Spanish-language TV in Arizona.  Note that the paid for written disclaimer doesn't appear at the exact end of the ad, as required by law for TV ads, but about :20 seconds in.  The ad also came in :45 and :60 second versions.

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Pro-Kasich New Day for America released a new :30 second ad today:
-In Again, the PAC argues that a vote for Ted Cruz is a vote for Hillary Clinton because Cruz can't beat her but Kasich can.

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Pro-Cruz Trusted Leadership PAC strikes back at the Pro-Kasich New Day for America's recent ad by releasing a Wisconsin attack ad against Kasich:

-In the :30 second Kasich Won't Play, Trusted Leadership PAC attacks John Kasich for his PAC's Soros Ties, voting against the Second Amendment and expanding Obamacare in Ohio, costing taxpayers billions.  Given Kasich's liberal record, John Kasich won't play in Wisconsin - or so the PAC claims.

Trusted Leadership PAC is making a $500,000 TV, radio and digital buy in Wisconsin, according to CNN.

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Morning Consult outlined this week's Wisconsin ad buys, likely as of this morning.  Note: These figures include broadcast, radio and cable:

Cruz: $206,000
Kasich: $267,000
Trump $347,000

Clinton: $67,000
Sanders: $984,000

Trusted Leadership PAC (Pro-Cruz):  $343,000
New Day for America (Pro-Kasich): $283,000
Club For Growth (Pro-Cruz): $346,000
Club For Growth (Anti-Trump): $162,000
Our Principles PAC (Anti-Trump):  $546,000

I'm not sure how/why Morning Consult listed Club For Growth twice, with different amounts.

Click on the article if you're interested in knowing where some of the candidates/PACs have concentrated their ad buy.  The big disparity between Clinton and Sanders ad spending tells me that Clinton has all but given up on winning the state.  I expect another Sanders blowout, which is what occured in almost every state that Clinton didn't bother to advertise in over the past month.

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I'm not sure how/why Morning Consult listed Club For Growth twice, with different amounts.

Aren't they just separating out the money spent on anti-Trump attack ads from those spent on pro-Cruz ads?

Yes, but I have no idea how they could possibly calculate that upfront before the ads have been aired.  A PAC or candidate can easily swap out ads.

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Two new ads today, one from the Cruz campaign, the other from the Karl Rove-affiliated American Crossroads:

The Cruz campaign released a :60 second Wisconsin specific ad, Opportunity.  In it, Cruz, talking directly to the camera, claims his campaign is for a broad cross-section of Wisconsinites, that he will repeal Obamacare, peel back the EPA and small-business killing regulations, fight for fair trade, and see that wages go up and there is opportunity again.

American Crossroads released the :15 second #NeverHillary.  The ad begins with the caption "Scandal follows Hillary Clinton like a shadow", and the names of Clinton's scandals follow on the screen while audio of Hillary Clinton saying "I think I'm the most transparent person in public life" loops twice.  It ends "Stay Tuned, they'll be a lot more."  It's not clear that American Crossroads is actually airing this anywhere or that it is anything more than a web ad, though.

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Three new ads today, all :30 seconds:

The Cruz campaign released Walker, in which Scott Walker speaks directly to the camera explaining why he supports Ted Cruz for President.

Pro-Kasich New Day for America released Nose, an ad slamming "Lyin' Ted" for lying about Carson to steal a win in Iowa, lying about being the best in the GOP despite the polls, and lying in a TV ad about Kasich, causing stations to pull it off the air (I'm not sure which ad they are referring to, perhaps the ad put out by a Pro-Cruz PAC).  If Ted Cruz's mouth is moving, he's lying, they claim.

Pro-Trump Great America PAC released Concerned, which features a Trump supporting mom who claims Trump will keep her family safe by controlling our borders while Cruz supported letting Syrian refugees in and giving amnesty to illegal immigrants.  NBC News has more information on who this PAC is and what their plans are.  This ad is supposedly slated to air in Wisconsin.

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Pro-Cruz Trusted Leadership PAC released Kasich BFF, a :30 second ad tying Kasich to Obama for his Medicaid expansion in Ohio.  It uses Obama and a Fox News anchor's words to make the point.

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Three candidates and one PAC released TV ads on Youtube over the past few days.  All except one are :30 seconds.  On the Democratic side:

Hillary Clinton released 3 ads on YouTube:

-In Every Corner, Clinton argues that she helped New Yorkers in every corner of the state as Senator, and will do the same in every corner of America.  My guess is this will run mainly Upstate, as it mentions a lot of Upstate cities, but not much in the NYC area.
-Norma, mentions Clinton's support for the Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus, which brought high-tech jobs to the region.  My guess is this will be played mainly in Buffalo, as it is meaningless Downstate.
-Spanish-language La vida requiere riesgos (Life Requires Risks) features DREAMer Dan-el Padilla Peralta, a Columbia professor that Hillary got a visa to return to the U.S. after studying at Oxford - I think.  But my Spanish is really rusty, so someone who speaks better Spanish can confirm or contradict.

Bernie Sanders released two ads:
-Erica features the daughter of Erica Garner endorsing Sanders because he is a protester who is willing to talk about police brutality and go up against the criminal justice system.  It features video of the police takedown of Eric Garner.
-The 1:00 minute America (New York) features New York-specific imagery at the beginning of Sanders' older ad featuring the Simon and Garfunkel song America.

Clinton and Sanders are both up in the NYC market.  From what I've seen, both have ads not on their YouTube channels.

On the Republican side:

-John Kasich released "Values", attacking Ted Cruz over his "New York values" comment.  It argues Cruz divides to get a vote while Kasich unites to get things done.
-Pro-Kasich New Day for America PAC released Ted Cruz & New York Values, along the same lines.  It argues New Yorkers aren't stupid, Ted, after 9/11, New Yorkers rallied, rebuilt but remembered - and will remember Cruz's comments about New York values.  Don't believe it when Cruz now says he loves New York, they claim.

As of right now, neither Kasich nor New Day for America are on air in the NYC TV market.  I'm not sure about Upstate markets.  That, obviously, can change in a heartbeat.

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Two new ads on YouTube so far today, plus a shorter version of an ad aired yesterday:

-The Kasich campaign released One Choice (:15, :30), which argues that only Kasich can beat Clinton, and Cruz can't win the nomination outright or beat Clinton.
-The Kasich campaign also released a :15 second version of the Values ad they released yesterday, hitting Cruz on his New York values remarks.said we

-Pro-Kasich New Day for America released the :30 second Crazy, which argues Cruz is crazy because he was told by his father that he was ordained by God to hold a powerful position and Trump is crazy because he wants to, among other things, punish women who have an abortion and police Muslim neighborhoods, as the song Crazy plays in the background.  The ad claims Kasich is the stable, Presidential choice.

New Day for America has begun airing ads in the New York City market, at least.  There's very little in the FCC files for them so far, but things should be appearing soon.  I haven't seen any media buys by the Kasich campaign itself, either on air or in the FCC files - yet.

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One new :30 second spot from Bernie Sanders today:

-In These Are Mothers and Fathers, Sons and Daughters, Sanders uses endorsements from Harry Belafonte, Erica Garner, Shaun King and Linda Sarsour to reach out to minority voters.