The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Trump's approval rating may only average in the high 30s throughout his term, but they are the the most important 30-something percent of the population. The majority-of-the-majority, so to speak.

When Donald Trump becomes President, 2% of the American public -- the people who own more than 50% of the assets -- will be more important that the rest of America. That is how plutocracy works. There will be no meaningful change in the political reality of America for nearly two years. All hail Lord Mammon Who requireth human sacrifices unto Him!

There will always be snobs and flunkies who think that it is better to be a house slave than a field slave and fear that in the wake of emancipation their privileged state among people far worse-off than them will be at risk if a more just order, one that no longer needs slavery, comes into being. Such people are fools. (Sure that is an exaggeration, and an ugly one... but it has relevance).

Donald Trump winning the Presidential election with slightly more of the popular vote than McCain got in 2008 or Dukakis got in 1988 (and they are considered big losers), less than Kerry in 2004 or Romney in 2012, and less than the winner of the plurality, is a fluke.

It could be that for the next four years the American economic system will dictate that the masses suffer more for the Master Class and pretend to love it. Should that be the permanent state of things in America and I have no means of escape other than pulling the pin on a live grenade, then I will pull the pin on a live grenade. At the end of those four years... 39% approval will not be enough to keep Donald Trump or his successor in power.

It is possible to sell manure. It has its uses. It is impossible to sell human suffering unless one disguises it carefully as some promise to "Make America Great Again".        

[pbrower2a]

How could devout Christians fall for a Presidential nominee just slightly more moral than Dracula?

[pbrower2a]

Trump's approval took a hit because of the fake golden shower affair.

He will recover pretty soon.

There hasn't been time to measure the impact.

Besides, it hasn't dropped at all from last week. Maybe kinky people like me approve of him more now.

The awful puns and double-entendres practically write themselves. The topic offers a steady stream of psychological connotations.

[pbrower2a]

The double entendre by me (steady stream) was intentional.

[pbrower2a]

He or Mike Pence might need a whites-only electorate to win re-election.

Fasten your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.

[pbrower2a]

He or Mike Pence might need a whites-only electorate to win re-election.

Fasten your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.

What wonderful times we live in!

I don't trust an impetuous fool with the red button -- or my civil liberties.

[pbrower2a]

And here we go again! The Trumpster just tweeted what I previously predicted/joked:

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Link


The orange clown just never grows up. #LOLDrumpf

Again, except for having nice clothes and never being short of cash, Donald Trump reminds me of the semi-literate juvenile delinquents that I knew all too well -- and did everything possible to avoid -- when I was in middle school and high school. The juvenile delinquents either grew up  and took  honest blue-collar jobs (Hooray!) or failed to grow up and ended up in prison for theft or violent crime. 

Nobody has compelled Donald Trump to grow up. He has been exempt from the humiliating (and often humanizing) realities that anyone not born with a silver spoon in his mouth ends up having to endure.

[pbrower2a]

New poll from Monmouth U, whose reputation probably took the largest hit among pollsters, conducted from 1/12 - 1/15:

34% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable, 20% No opinion (who are these people?!?)

The margin is the same as for those pollsters that give Trump favorability around 40%... that negative margin suggests a rough start for the President-Elect.

The only good thing that I can say of it is that if he is going to be down that much, then it had better be early. Can he convince Americans that Corporate America can do more good for them than anyone else, that only the harshest discipline of brutal management and the sting of poverty can force people out of their inherent laziness, and that vicarious delight in the ostentatious display of success by America's 'winners' can bring true happiness? Can his real-estate huckster and reality-TV model of management work well for Americans?

I'd rather watch old movies. Wouldn't you?

[pbrower2a]

Here's the first poll of a state that in fact voted for Donald Trump (if not by much) -- North Carolina. PPP, as if you are surprised.

January 13-16, 2017
Survey of 953 North Carolina voters

North Carolina Survey Results

Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama's job performance?

 50% Approve
..........................................................
 47% Disapprove
......................................................
  4% Not sure
..........................................................
Q2
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?

 44% Favorable
........................................................
 49% Unfavorable
....................................................
  6%  Not sure
....................................................

In other polling news... North Carolinians do not expect Donald Trump to be as good a President as Barack Obama; they trust the intelligence services more than they trust Donald Trump; and they don't look sympathetically upon Russian President Vladimir Putin. They want the Affordable Care Act reformed and strengthened -- not scrapped.

(If you are wondering about Q -- it's polling New York City this week, so any results for the Big Apple will be interesting -- if irrelevant).


Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_11817.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Aren't these the same polls that showed Trump losing?  As far as how people think he'll do it's 48/48.  Democrats can spin it however they want.  Remember polls are fake news.  Nice little work though!

Sure. Polls go obsolete quickly in a dynamic reality. They can also fail to recognize the effectiveness of voter suppression, as in Wisconsin. News that fails to tell the full story is not fake news unless it has a deliberate intent to deceive. Polls measure something and are only estimates of reality.

No conventional wisdom can tell us how well Donald Trump will do as president based upon whether people like him early. Some things, like asparagus and classical music, are acquired tastes. So it could theoretically be with Trump economics -- that the social order that can enforce great sacrifices by people other than elites can lead to incredible gains in productivity that will make the suffering all worthwhile.

Approvals for the transition are awful. This is a chaotic transition, offering to many indications of a chaotic administration that will call for drastic changes that cannot be implemented. Nowhere do people like chaos in governmental administration or foreign policy. 

Donald Trump will work miracles or he will lose the faith of multitudes who voted for him. He had enthusiasm on his side, but that can wear off rapidly if the results are awful. Some expect it all to work well, with America unleashing the phenomenal growth (if with horrible conditions of life by current standards) of the Gilded Age. I look at the personality and see someone that I would not want as a boss. I see someone who has no idea of how to govern without resorting to despotic command unsuited to the American people. I see someone more likely to inspire mass contempt than to convince people to make great sacrifices of political qualities and agendas that they have long cherished.

[pbrower2a]

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Land lines only, effectively selecting an older and much more conservative se3gment of the population.

[pbrower2a]

WBUR, Massachusetts

This looks like favorability, altogether -- how optimistically Massachusetts people think of  Donald Trump today. Average the "good" as favorability, and one gets about 25%.

Was George III ever that unpopular in Massachusetts?




http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2017/01/19/poll-trump-massachusetts-inauguration

At this point, I think Massachusetts would be ready to return to British rule!

If PPP does a poll of Massachusetts and wants a quirky question, whether Massachusetts voters would rather return to British rule than endure Donald Trump might be a good one. I have supplied some such questions that have been placed in their polls. 

Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[pbrower2a]

Favorability is general optimism. Approval is whether one likes the results. That is why I have two maps for now. Approval is more germane to the likelihood of re-election because politicians run on their records with the chance of winning or run from their records and lose.

I will keep the favorability polls up for a couple of months -- until I have approval ratings for ten so states, or perhaps seven relevant states. I have yet to decide what 'relevant' is. If I see Donald Trump with approval of 40% in Georgia or 52% in Michigan, then that might be enough.

Polls should be coming in soon in several states -- most likely swing states of 2016. I already have a favorability poll in North Carolina, but the Massachusetts estimate and polls of New York, New Jersey, and Maryland are of non-swing states. I think that Virginia has swung hard against Donald Trump.  

[pbrower2a]

Says it all really.

Even if you support him, can we all simply acknowledge that Trump is unpopular and it's not surprising?

He became president despite losing the popular vote by a greater amount than anyone whose managed entering the Oval Office. He ran a campaign that was proudly divisive against "anyone who isn't us". He was chronically vulgar, insulting, and obnoxious in a manner greater than literally every other major party candidate in history combined--supporters considered it "telling it like it is". Whats more, we can all agree that his REPEATED statements about pussy grabbing, women "being dangerous by working out of the home", liking to intrude on beauty show dressing rooms, etc.  etc. etc., proved even to his supporters that, although they preferred him to Clinton, he's still fundamentally a scumbag personally.

Most importantly, he has not said one thing or taken a single action since being elected to change that course and actually unify the country. His supporters saying that candidate Trump would develop gravitas and his non-ideological nature to build bridges have bupkis to show for that theory, and it ain't about to happen.

The only people trying to claim he's not unpopular are those that always supported him.

Yes. He has basically told people that if they dislike him or his policies that it is the fault of those who 'failed' to support him and not of him or his policies. People who found him appalling on November 8 still find him appalling. The threat "change your political views or be miserable" is about what one expects in a dictatorship that does not go so far as to admonish people "comply or die".

He is going to demand sacrifices of people who did not vote for him with promises of miracles, but have no responsibility for the failure of the miracles to arrive. Of course some of us will continue to have memories of the vulgar, insulting manner of his campaign.

I predict that he will have a chaotic Presidency... and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again or some international crisis or natural disaster emerges that he cannot meet competently, then he will be the sort of leader who gets overthrown in a military coup in many countries other than America.

We are also seeing his managerial style, and persuasion is not part of it. His style is pure command> I could never get away with that as a substitute school teacher.

   

[pbrower2a]

"and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again"

LOL, will be a hard awakening for some delusional Democrats in 2018 ^^

Midterm elections usually break badly for the Party with the President in the White House. This time I acknowledge that the Republicans will likely make gains in the Senate. They will lose some gubernatorial seats... of course I will need to see some polls for Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  The Governors elected in 2018 may decide whether the Republican ticket gets necessary aid through voter suppression. The gubernatorial elections are the key elections.

[pbrower2a]

"and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again"

LOL, will be a hard awakening for some delusional Democrats in 2018 ^^

Midterm elections usually break badly for the Party with the President in the White House. This time I acknowledge that the Republicans will likely make gains in the Senate. They will lose some gubernatorial seats... of course I will need to see some polls for Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  The Governors elected in 2018 may decide whether the Republican ticket gets necessary aid through voter suppression. The gubernatorial elections are the key elections.

Let's hope the Dems won't get help through voter fraud. But I doubt that Scott Foval and Bob Creamer are out of business. And I doubt that you have a problem with them ;-)

Your "voter supression" is nothing more than installing rules to make voter fraud harder - rules which are common in every European country.

Voter fraud is a rarity. The reward for fraudulent voting is so small in contrast to the possible consequences that such a deed as shoplifting is a more attractive offense. The people who would commit voter fraud are not so politically involved as the average.

Voter suppression is far easier to implement because it involves people who really know what they are doing -- people with access to demographic information that people must take considerable effort to get and use. These people know well enough to ensure that certain electoral precincts get plenty of voting devices and others get inadequate numbers of machine, or that voting be rushed through in some precincts and slowed in others. I may easily find out how some ethnic and occupational groups vote because of some limited research. Knowing one precinct from another is for people intimately involved in elections. 

[pbrower2a]

Four days into his Presidency and now, more people disapprove of the job Trump is doing. I don't think that's ever happened before. Gallup now has 45% approving Trump, 46% disapproving.

It was better than expected. Four days into trump and it's already amazing. Unexpected for me. If this continues I'm all on board for 2020

At the moment, Trump is at the bare minimum to have a chance at re-election. He has no room to slip, I would not call that amazing.

According to Nate Silver, incumbent Senators and Governors typically can estimate a gain of 6.5% in vote share from an approval rating at the beginning of a campaign season.  Politicians who do not have a lock on 50% of the vote typically must campaign vigorously to win re-election. Those who have already won an election to their office can turn voters on the margin to their side against the 'average' challenger. Very few incumbents with approval near 50% who have won the seat in a prior election lose their re-election bids; the most blatant example was Senator George Allen, who ran an incompetent and abrasive campaign against an unusually-strong challenger in a bad year for his Party. Note that appointed incumbents often fare badly in their first election, showing that they have never shgown themselves capable of appealing to voters.

The gain from campaigning in a contested election is about the same whether one has an approval rating around 38% or around 62%. Above 62%, one often ends up with a practically-uncontested election, and below about  28% one mostly has incumbents who choose not to run because they see themselves losing, withdraw early, or lose to primary challenges.

So what about politicians with hidden problems, like scandals that had not yet erupted? Those pols generally telegraph fear and pessimism and experience the aversion of political journalists  who have no desire to praise an idol with clay feet.
 
Most Presidents were Governors or Senators, so this model is relevant to the re-election election of incumbent Presidents. When I saw Obama with 45% approval in early 2012 I thought that with as competent a campaign as he ran in 2008 against the usual challenger he would win.    

We are three years away from the start of the Presidential campaign of 2020. We cannot yet know whether there will be a free and fair election; a rigged election would of course make any analysis of voluntary behavior in voting moot. Beware: bad governments that have much gain from corruption and cronyism generally ensure that there will be no honest election capable of sweeping them out. All rules that you know for American political life have been destroyed.  

[pbrower2a]

Four days into his Presidency and now, more people disapprove of the job Trump is doing. I don't think that's ever happened before. Gallup now has 45% approving Trump, 46% disapproving.

It was better than expected. Four days into trump and it's already amazing. Unexpected for me. If this continues I'm all on board for 2020

True. But everything must go right, which means that he can't face:

1. an economic downturn
2. a war that goes badly
3. civil unrest
4. a diplomatic debacle
5. a natural disaster that he mishandles
6. a really-strong Democratic opponent
7. a Third Party or independent challenge from within or near his Party

... and be re-elected.

At the moment, Trump is at the bare minimum to have a chance at re-election. He has no room to slip

One does not project an election almost four years away at this stage. Early in 2009 I thought that Barack Obama would be re-elected in a landslide with 400 or more electoral votes.

[pbrower2a]

At the moment, Trump is at the bare minimum to have a chance at re-election. He has no room to slip

Suuuuure.

Your confidence is misplaced. 45/45 are not good numbers for a newly elected president, they are not good numbers for an incumbent running for re-election either. You can plug your ears and pretend Trump is in good shape, but you'd just be lying to yourself.

These are horrible numbers contrasted to the numbers for Obama at the same time. Of course the situation is very different. In 2009 the economy seemed to suggest a time about halfway through the meltdown between 1929 and 1932 (it really was analogous) and America had very badly-run wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The world scene was much safer before Trump than with him, and the economy has more potential for a downside than an upside. 

This is before President  Trump introduces legislation, and it is premature for me to predict how it will go. The pattern is that people who were marginal supporters in the election will usually be disappointed to some extent and that marginal non-supporters will remain skeptical. He can use the phrase "Make America Great Again" however much he wants, but now we get  to find what that means. If it means great only for some economic royalists, then he will be terribly unpopular.

Remember -- Donald Trump the campaigner used a phrase that people could interpret however they  wanted... and I'm guessing that most who liked it interpreted it to mean "Make America great again -- for me". Figure that people who remember the halcyon days of Industrial America when there were plenty of well-paying jobs in mines and factories that supported working-class prosperity, that such meant a return to the time when anyone with a strong body and a good work ethic could get and hold a job which doesn't require one to think too much. That may be impossible. More likely is an economic order in which economic elites grab everything possible and treat the masses badly, but expect everyone to see the plutocratic exploiters as unalloyed benefactors -- or else. "Or else" could mean imprisonment, torture, or death.

We are going to find "for whom" and "how" very soon. Most who did not believe Donald Trump are unlikely to be convinced. Many who did will be disappointed.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, California: first statewide approval poll. It's only of the Presidential transition, but that went badly according to California respondents. 33-59. California did go 61-31 for Hillary Clinton.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/CaliforniaPollJanuary2017.pdf

Revision: it will be treated as favorability.


Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[pbrower2a]

PPP, California: first statewide approval poll. It's only of the Presidential transition, but that went badly according to California respondents.

But that's not his job approval as president.  The poll was taken before he took office, so he didn't have a job approval as president at that point, since he wasn't president.

True. But it is what he starts with. Of course, California is hardly representative of America. I did not expect to see a poll of California of any kind. 

[pbrower2a]

PPP, California: first statewide approval poll. It's only of the Presidential transition, but that went badly according to California respondents.

But that's not his job approval as president.  The poll was taken before he took office, so he didn't have a job approval as president at that point, since he wasn't president.

True. But it is what he starts with.

It's what he has on a question that's different from "presidential job approval".  Job approval as president is not job approval in managing the transition.

I am not on thin ice. President Trump has been throwing his weight around even before being inaugurated, just as Barack Obama did in late 2008 and the first three weeks of January. Beyond any question, Barack Obama was more effective and got better results.

In any event, the state in question is California, a state that gets polled very rarely. The question is whether I put this in "approval" or "favorability". Second, California is one of the most strongly-Democratic states in America, and the split is very close to the electoral result. If anything, it even reflects a slight gain from the electoral result.

I was hoping to see polls from other states closer to the partisan edge, and the only ones close to the partisan edge for which I have seen any post-election polls are Virginia and North Carolina -- for favorability. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida will be far more interesting.

[pbrower2a]

I agree with Mr. Morden.

pbrower, you should remove that CA poll and only start with polls after his inauguration. This CA poll was clearly done before and shouldn't be included. There are going to be many CA polls anyway (PPIC, Field, SurveyUSA etc.)

I have revised it to treat it as favorability.

[pbrower2a]

Contrasting how people expect to see Donald trump against prior Presidents:

Who will be better -- this prior President or Donald Trump:

Who will end up being a better
President, Donald Trump or...

Barack Obama Obama 48-43
 
George W. Bush Bush 40-35

Bill Clinton Clinton 51-41

George H.W. Bush Bush 47-32

Ronald Reagan Reagan 57-17

Jimmy Carter Carter 45-42
 
Gerald Ford Ford 42-37

Richard Nixon Trump 40-31 

Trump has accomplished the incredible feat of making Democrats long for George W. Bush, who they think by a 62-14 spread will end up having been a better President than Trump. The numbers do  show the extent to which it is now Trump's Republican Party though.

 Among GOP voters he beats out George W. Bush 65/15, George H.W. Bush 63/17, and Gerald Ford 71/13. He loses out only to Ronald Reagan and even that's relatively competitive with Reagan getting 45% to Trump's 31%.

“Usually a new President comes in with voters having positive feelings and high
expectations for them,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
“Donald Trump comes in with Americans expecting him to be the worst President
in 40 years from Day 1.”

[pbrower2a]

Donald Trump is less likely to be an adequate President than to be overthrown in a military coup. I can put him in the same sentence with Washington, Lincoln, and FDR in a comparison ... as an antithesis.  

America just does not do military coups.

The Armed Forces and the intelligence services apparently found President Obama easy to deal with. I never imagined that President Obama would get Osama bin Laden whacked.