A New 2012 & 2016 Election Timeline: Crisis

[sentinel]

Ok, so here is my timeline so far...tell me what you think and if I should keep going, etc.



2010 was a year filled with a chorus of voices calling for bipartisanship but with no one actually coming to the table to compromise. Obama's approval ratings averaged around 48% for most of the year but as the Democrats dillydallied in Congress their chances of winning the 2010 elections grew slim.

2010 Elections Results:



Winners/Losers in 2010:

(Winner’s name)

Democrats holds Connecticut (Blumenthal), and Illinois (Alexi Giannoulias), New York (Schumer), Arkansas (Lincoln), California (Boxer), Hawaii (Inouye), Maryland (Mikulski), New York (Gillibrand), Oregon (Wyden),  Vermont (Leahy)

Democrats lose in Delaware (Michael Castle), Indiana (Daniel Coats), North Dakota (John Hoeven), Colorado (Jane Norton), Nevada (Sue Lowden), Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey), Wisconsin (Tommy Thompson) (-7 for Democrats)

Republicans hold Kansas, Kentucky (Rand Paul), Missouri (Roy Blunt), Ohio (Rob Portman), Florida (Marco Rubio), Alabama (Shelby), Alaska (Murkowski), Arizona (McCain), Georgia (Isakson), Idaho (Crapo),  Iowa (Grassley), Louisiana (Vitter), North Carolina (Burr), Oklahoma (Coburn), South Caorlina (DeMint), South Dakota (Thune), Utah (Bennett)

Republicans losses in New Hampshire (Paul Hodes) (-1 Republicans)


Senate Composition:
Democrats: 51 (-6)
Independent: 2
Republicans: 47

House Composition:
Democrats: 217 (-40)
Republicans: 222 (+40)

Gubernatorial Races:

State (Winner – Party)

Colorado (Hickenlooper – D), New York (Cuomo – D), Maine (Rowe – D), New Mexico (Denish – D), Michigan (Bernero –D), Oklahoma (Brogdon – R), Oregon (Kitzhaber – D), Pennsylvania (Corbett – R), Tennessee (Ramsey – R), Wisconsin (Barrett – D), Wyoming (Micheli – R), Arkansas (Beebe – D), Illinois (Quinn – D), Iowa (Culver – D), Maryland (O’Malley – D), Ohio (Strickland – D), Idaho (Otter – R), Nebraska (Heineman – R), Nevada (Gibbons – R), Texas (Perry – R), Utah (Herbert – R), Alabama (Byrne – R),  California (Brown – D), Connecticut (Lamont – D), Florida (McCollum – R), Georgia (Oxendine – R), Hawaii (Abercrombie – D), Minnesota (Seifert – R), Rhode Island (Chaffee – I), South Carolina (Barrett – R), South Dakota (Duagaard – R), Massachusetts (Cahill – I), Arizona (Arpaio – R), Alaska (Parnell – R), Vermont (Markowitz – D)


Unemployment is at 9.3%

After the 2010 elections, the last act of the 111th Congress was pushing the Senate Health Care Bill through the House. This was seen as a spiteful act by Nancy Pelosi against the incumbent Speaker and the new Congress. The President’s approval dropped from 45% to 40% after the signing of the Health Care Bill in December 2010. President Obama has not yet announced his bid for re-election but it is widely assumed that he will run for a second term.
At the same time, especially in December 2010 it was unclear who the third person in line to the Presidency would be.


The first of several candidates to announce his running for Speaker of the House of Representatives was Representative John Boehner of Ohio.



112th Congress Senate Majority Leader: Charles E. Schumer


112th Congress Senate Minority Leader: Addison Mitchell "Mitch" McConnell, Jr

[sentinel]

A Congressional Aide leaked the names of the candidates who were fighting for the Speaker position in the House. Boehner is being seen as too unwilling to compromise with the President by some, and not taking a hard-enough stance against the President’s policies by other Republicans. Future Presidential ambitions are also to be taken into consideration.
Minority Whip Eric Cantor is supporting John Boehner. If Boehner manages to be Speaker then it is believed that Cantor will be the Majority Leader.

Estimated Vote Count Before First Vote:

111 needed for majority


John Boehner of Ohio, House Minority Leader: Estimated 90


David Dreier of California, Chairman of the House Rules Committee: Estimated 49


Peter King of New York, Chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee: Estimated 34
 


David Camp of Michigan, Chairman of the House Ways & Means Committee: Estimated 18



Mary Fallin of Oklahoma: Estimated 5

Undecided: 26
John Boehner is persuading members of his experience and leadership in being minority leader, although he has only been in the House for about ten years.

David Dreier is campaigning to his fellow House members saying that they need to compromise more with the President. Allegations of his sexual orientation make some hesitant to support him.

Peter King is calling Boehner spineless and lacks the will power to make clear choices of when to support and not support the President’s policies.

David Camp is on the same page as Dreier, although he does not have the support or the sexual allegations that Drier has.

Mary Fallin is presumably in it to siphon off votes and to get on a powerful committee. No one takes her seriously.

[sentinel]

So Fallin isn't elected governor of Oklahoma?

Sh1t she's running? Oh well, she's not an essential part of my plot...or even part of my plot.

Why does Hodes somehow manage to pull off a win, but Feingold loses? Thompson doesn't seem like he could bring Feingold down, the Wisconsin GOP would probably need a somewhat fresher face.

Feingold is polling badly now (at least according to the polling on Wikipedia) while Paul Hodes is polling alright. It was unfortunate for me to make Feingold lose, I like him, but it was a rough year for the Democrats.

[sentinel]

On the Democratic side, Steny Hoyer will remain the leader of the Democrats but as minority leader.

-----------

“Look, we’re on the same side of the same battle. I need you. What can I do to get your support?”
“No you look, with these contentions you’ll never get enough support to be Speaker. The support you’re getting now is surprising. Tell your backers to back me.”
“I’d have more bipartisan support on legislation.”
“That’d be useful if the Republicans would listen to you. Let me know when you decide to back me.”

---------------------

“You’re not going to be Speaker, we all know this. What do you want?”
“More stimulus funds, we’re hurting here John…”
“More stimulus funds? Go talk to the Democrats.”

Estimated Votes:

John Boehner of Ohio: Estimated 92
David Dreier of California: Estimated 47
Peter King of New York: Estimated 34
David Camp of Michigan: Estimated 20
Mary Fallin of Oklahoma: Estimated 3
Undecided: 26

Mary Fallin decides to end her run for Speaker of the House.

In late December 2010 it is also announced that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates will leave his position as soon as President Obama finds a successor. Obama says whoever the successor will be, will be confirmed by the 112th Senate.

   Rumors start flying if any other administration officials will leave. There were rumors in early 2010 regarding how long Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel would stay on. Due to Obama’s low approval rating there is more and more talk about a primary challenger, possibly Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She would have to step down as Secretary of State in order to do this.

In the race to be Speaker of the House and right behind the Vice President in the line of succession, David Camp loses at least half of his support and ends his bid after publically making comments about David Dreier’s sexual orientation.

Estimated Votes:

John Boehner of Ohio: Estimated 97
Peter King of New York: Estimated: 60
David Dreier of California: Estimated 58

Undecided: 7

----------------

“Majority Leader?”
“Excuse me?”
“That’s what they’ll be calling you.”

---------------------

“Mr. President?”
“I need you to do me a favor, not just for me –for the country. No one would expect you to do this, and I understand if you won’t, but its best for America.”
“Sir, meddling in the leadership affairs of Congress, it’s going to look bad.”
“I’m not running, what do I care?”

January 4th 2011

   The 112th Congress is sworn in. The Republicans, after hours of backroom dealing, elect David Dreier of California as Speaker of the House of Representatives. Peter King will serve as Majority Leader. Eric Cantor declines remaining as the Whip and instead is replaced by a no-face representative.

President Obama calls the new Speaker to congratulate him. Representative John Boehner becomes Chairman of a committee of his choosing,

The Washington Post drops a few possible names for Secretary of Defense…

Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island
Former Secretary of State Colin Powell
Former Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia
Former Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska

[sentinel]

January 5th 2011

   President Obama meets with the new Speaker David Dreier of California. Dreier says he is “willing to work with the President on his agenda while reducing the budget.”
January 15th 2011

   The Democratic and Republican National Committee’s say they have agreed to a radical new primary plan (Carter-Bush Plan) that will be released in February. They recommend that no candidate who is planning to run for President announce before the plan is revealed.

January 17th 2011

   President Barack Obama announces his new Secretary of Defense.

Former Senator Chuck Hagel formerly of Nebraska now of Virginia

February 5th 2011

   The Carter-Bush Primary Plan is revealed in a joint-press conference by both the Republican and Democratic National Committees. It will be implemented in the 2012 primaries.
Stipulations of the plan:
   Except for the first three primaries, the states will vote in-bloc by region.

   The regions go as follows:
   
Primary Zone 1 (New England)
Primary Zone 2 (West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, DC)
Primary Zone 3 (Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Puerto Rico)
Primary Zone 4 (Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota)
Primary Zone 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan)
Primary Zone 6 (Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico)
Primary Zone 7 (California, Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Democrats Abroad & remaining territories)


The primary season will also be pushed forward to April and will run until June. The first three states to vote will be chosen at random, after that the states will vote in-bloc and the order will be determined by lottery.

April 2nd – Colorado
April 9th –Kansas
April 16 – Connecticut
April 23 – Primary Zone 3 (South)
April 30 – Primary Zone 5 (Michigan…)
May 7 – Primary Zone 1 (New England…)
May 14 – Primary Zone 6 (Idaho, Arizona…)
May 28 – Primary Zone 4 (Kansas, Iowa…)
June 5 – Primary Zone 7 (West Coast)
June 12 – Primary Zone 2 (Mason-Dixie Line)

The DNC and RNC state that any state who does not abide will have all of their delegates stripped by both parties.

President Obama, Former President’s Clinton, Bush Sr and Carter all endorse the plan.

[sentinel]

February 8th

The Senate confirms former Senator Chuck Hagel as the new Secretary of Defense 84 – 16.
New Hampshire says it will have the first primary while all other 49 states sign onto the new rules. The Democratic and Republican National Committee’s say that New Hampshire will receive no delegates at their conventions and candidates will not be allowed to campaign there.

February 12th 2011

Former Governor Gary Johnson of New Mexico is the first to announce his candidacy for the Presidency, with the first primary over a year away.
February 13th 2011

When asked if he would run, Mitt Romney replies that he will make an announcement by September.
Mike Huckabee reiterates “September sounds like a good time under the new system for any announcements.”

February 20th 2011

   President Barack Obama announces an education overhaul as well as an investigation to the effects of the elimination of teacher tenure.
   Howard Dean publically criticizes the plan as not good enough.

March 2011

   The President’s approval rating is averaging 43% and there is speculation on whether or not he will run for re-election.
   A commercial plane goes down over Saudi Arabia that was headed for Iran. Iran blames Israel, while Saudi Arabia and Israel say it was mechanical problems. Tensions flare.

If an election was held today who would you vote for?

Someone else: 45%
President Obama: 41%
Not sure: 12%

May 2011
   New Hampshire legislature repeals the law making it its first primary and agrees to move its primary to meet DNC and RNC criteria.

June 2011

   President Obama has his first formal press conference in a few months, the press asks “Mr. President, will you run in 2012?”
   “Yes, I will be running for re-election.”

Presidential Approval Rating: 50%

A small boost in Obama’s approval after announcing his re-election bid.

July 2011

   Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announces that she will be stepping down from her position as soon as President Obama appoints a new successor.

August 2011

   President Obama nominates Special Envoy to the Middle East and Former Senator from Maine George Mitchell to be Secretary of State.

   Mitchell is confirmed a week later by a overwhelmingly majority.

Obama Approval: 47%
Unemployment: 8.9%

September 3rd 2011

Former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee announces he will run for President.

Pundits say his record on crime may hurt him but he has a solid chance of sweeping the first voting-bloc of primaries if he makes it there.

September 7th 2011

In an attempt to stop the media coverage of Huckabee and Johnson, Former Governor George Pataki of New York announces that he will run for President.
Unfortunately for Pataki, there is another announcement today stealing some wind out of his announcement.

Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana will run for President.

September 18th 2011

Former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota announces that he will seek the Presidency.

October 1st 2011

Former Governor Mitt Romney announces that he will seek the Presidency.

Senator Scott Brown endorses Governor Mitt Romney for the Presidency.

October 4th 2011

Former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich announces that he will seek the Presidency.

Governor Rick Perry of Texas throws his hat into the ring.

President Obama’s education plan passes the Senate.

October 23rd 2011

Former Senator Rick Santorum also throws his hat into the ring.

October 25th 2011

Senator Jim Risch of Idaho announces his campaign for the Presidency.

November 8th 2011

Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee announces his campaign for the Presidency:

December 25th 2011:

As a Christmas Present, Former Governor Howard Dean announces that he will challenge President Obama in the Democratic primary.

It is still unclear if Sarah Palin will seek the Presidency.

December 2011 Republican Presidential Primary Polling:
Romney: 18%
Huckabee: 17%
Pataki: 10%
Johnson: 8%
Perry: 7%
Corker: 5%
Gingrich: 5%
Pawlenty: 4%
Daniels: 3%
Santorum: 3%
Risch: 2%
Undecided: 27%

Democratic Presidential Primary Polling:
Obama: 83%
Dean: 7%
Unsure: 10%

President Obama Approval December 2011: 45%

[sentinel]

What's with everyone joining so late? Most years, all primary candidates are in by July, at the latest.
My only other problem is Licoln winning, which I find nearly impossible. Other than that, good job!

There is a new primary system and the primaries start in April --so the candidates are joining later. FEC regulations occur later too.

I'll update tonight if my studying goes well.


Just an FYI - here is the voting eligible population (from 08) of each primary zone...

Primary Zone 1 (New England)    38,759,181
Primary Zone 3 (West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carlina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, DC)    57,788,651
Primary Zone 4 (Texas, Arkansas, Louisana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia)   28,105,704
Primary Zone 5 (Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa, Minesotta, North Dakota, South Dakota   17,139,934
Primary Zone 6 (Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan)   26,997,940
Primary Zone 7 (Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico)   11,832,130
Primary Zone 8 (California, Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada, Washington, Oregon)   32,253,456

[sentinel]

Statewide Polling January 2012

Colorado (1st State to Vote…in April)

Romney: 23%
Johnson: 18%
Huckabee: 17%
Pataki: 15%
Pawlenty: 10%
Perry: 9%
Gingrich: 3%
Corker: 2%
Daniels, Santorum, Risch (respectively): ~1%

Kansas (2nd State to Vote)

Huckabee: 25%
Perry: 15%
Romney: 13%
Pawlenty: 11%
Johnson: 10%
Gingrich: 7%
Pataki: 5%
Corker, Daniels, Santorum, Risch (respectively): ~1%

Connecticut (3rd State to Vote)

Romney: 24%
Pataki: 20%
Huckabee: 13%
Pawlenty: 12%
Johnson: 10%
Gingrich: 7%
Santorum: 3%
Corker, Daniels, Risch (respectively): ~1%

January 20th 2012
   President Barack Obama’s third State of the Union address. He says the spending freeze will continue into 2012 to help reduce the deficit. President Obama is given a standing ovation when he announces that all combat forces have returned home from Iraq. Iraq’s government is a minimally functioning democracy but what is left of the insurgency is under control by Iraq’s own forces.
   Afghanistan is another story. US & NATO troops have begun to pull out and Afgani forces are not able to contain the insurgents and terrorist pockets. Pakistan’s problems grow worse also with the foundations of its regime starting to untangle due to the rising power of warlords.
   Republicans respond saying that the deficit is bigger than ever and President Obama is still not going enough. They give Bush credit for Iraq and say Obama’s job was easy. They blame the President for the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan saying not enough was done to help. Republicans are worried that Iran may take action against Israel soon.

January 23rd 2012

   When asked if she will run for President, Sarah Palin replies “The field of contenders could use a strong female voice.”

Obama Approval: 50% (small bump from SOTU Speech)

February 2012



   Former Governor of Alaska announces her candidacy for the Presidency.

The Republican field now has 10 contenders.

National Polling for the Democratic Primary:

Obama: 79%
Dean: 15%

National Polling for the Republican Primary:

Huckabee: 18%
Romney: ~15%
Palin: ~15%
Pataki: 12%
Perry: 10%
Pawlenty: 8%
Johnson: 8%
Daniels: 3%
Santorum: ~2%
Gingrich: ~2%
Corker: ~2%
Risch: ~1%

February 15th 2012

   The first Republican Presidential debate occurs. Subjects range from social security to national security to health care policy. Huckabee gets hit hard regarding his record on crime in regards to Wayne DeMund and Maurice Clemmons. Palin says Huckabee simply “does not know right from wrong.”

   Palin comes under fire for resigning as Governor and not “finishing the job” according to Romney and Pataki.

   Gingrich, Palin, Romney, Palin and Pataki led in time spent talking while Risch and Corker trailed everyone else. Perry and Johnson spent the most time talking on economic issues and for Johnson good government but didn’t get much time during other sections. Daniels and Santorum’s performance weren’t something you’d see on the evening highlights.
Some of the first head to head polls come out…

Obama: 44%
Huckabee: 40%

Romney: 50%
Obama: 47%

Obama: 50%
Palin:  39%

Obama: 44%
Pataki: 40%

Obama: 47%
Perry: 33%

Obama: 44%
Pawlenty: 31%

Obama: 46%
Johnson: 30%

The other candidates don’t have enough name recognition to come even close to beating Obama yet, however; the polls show that he is vulnerable

February 18th 2012

   Senator Jim Risch who is having trouble fund raising and is barely considered in the polls, drops out of the race. Risch gives a unpublicized endorsement to Bob Corker.

February 23rd 2012

   “Mrs. Clinton, will you challenge President Obama for the Democratic nomination?”

   “We saw what happened to Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George HW Bush in the general election when they were challenged in the primary. I would never want that to happen to the President that I served for more than two years and to whom I give my unyielding support.”

   “Mrs. Clinton, why did you step down then?”

   “With the birth of my first granddaughter, I wanted to be able to see her more. I can’t do that flying around the world, can I?”

March 2012

   President Barack Obama has dismissed Dean as a challenge and still maintains his huge lead in every state including Vermont. President Obama’s campaign war-chest is exponentially larger than Deans who is attracting very liberal Democrats.

March 3rd 2012

   Governor Mitch Daniels of Tennessee drops out of the race for President and endorses Governor Rick Perry. Daniels says his campaign failed to get any traction.

March 18th 2012

   President Karzai of Afghanistan is assassinated by members of his own elite guard. Chaos ensues as political leaders as well as the military try to claim power in Afghanistan.
   Republicans immediately blame the situation on the withdrawal of NATO forces which was spearheaded by President Obama.


Obama Approval in the days after the Karzai assassination: 38%

[sentinel]

March 18th 2012
   A Republican Presidential debate occurs that night and national security is in the spotlight.
   Mike Huckabee, George Pataki and Mitt Romney agree that it is too late to put US forces back into Afghanistan because it would endanger too many American lives. They refuse to intervene in what they see as a developing civil war.

   Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich all retort them by saying that if the Taliban and Al-Qaeda regain control then American lives are in more danger than ever before.
   Viewers are split on the winner of the debate.

March 19th 2012

   After a dismal showing in the debates, Senator Rick Santorum drops out of the race for the Republican nomination. He endorses Sarah Palin.

   Rumors are floating about Corker dropping out soon too.

April 2nd 2012

Colorado Republican Primary Results:


Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts wins the Colorado Republican Primary

Romney: 23%
Huckabee: 18%
Palin: 16%
Pataki: 13%
Johnson: 11%
Pawlenty: 8%
Perry: 7%
Gingrich: 3%
Corker: 1%

President Obama trounces Howard Dean in the primary (90% - 10%). Kansas, Connecticut and virtually every other state refuses to have a Democratic primary due to the expensiveness and lack of competition.

April 3rd 2012

   New Gingrich and Bob Corker both drop out of the race for the Republican nomination.

April 8th 2012

   During the debates Governor Rick Perry brings up doubts about President Obama’s patriotism. Governor Huckabee retorts with “Excuse me, but President Obama never talked about seceding from the Union unlike how some of us…”
   Rick Perry tries to justify his comments but is ridiculed by the candidates and booed by the crowd.
   The rest of the debate is made irrelevant by the media since they keep playing that one clip over and over. It’s too late in the day for the campaign to recover.

April 9th 2012

Kansas Presidential Republican Primary

Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas wins the Kansas Primary

Huckabee: 27%
Palin: 18%
Romney: 16%
Pataki: 13%
Pawlenty: 9%
Johnson: 8%
Corker: 5%
Perry: 3%

Huckabee’s win was expected but Palin usurps Romney for second place.

April 10th 2012

   Senator Bob Corker and Governor Rick Perry of Texas drop out of the Presidential race.
   Howard Dean drops out of the Democratic race.

April 14th 2012

   Another Republican Presidential debate occurs with Huckabee, Palin, Romney, Pataki, Pawlenty and Johnson.
   Johnson is criticized for his liberalism on drug policy mainly legalizing marijuana. Pawlenty frames him as out of touch with American values.
   Huckabee is criticized for his record on crime and economic policy as Governor.
   Palin gets hit for “not having the cognitive ability to be President” by Gary Johnson as well as other remarks from the other candidates.
   Romney is criticized for his health care plan while Governor of Massachusetts.
   Pataki and Pawlenty come out relatively unscratched by criticism and both focus on their records as Governor.

April 16th 2012
   

Connecticut Primary Results

Pataki: 35%
Romney: 29%
Pawlenty: 12%
Huckabee: 11.9%
Palin: 7.1%
Johnson: 5%

The next primary will be Primary Zone 3 who will be voting in bloc; Texas, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas Mississippi and Louisiana on April 30th.

Pundits: Even though Huckabee has lost two of the three first states, he has a lot to gain by staying in the race at least until April 23rd where he will most definitely pick up more delegates. Pataki and Romney who while trying to portray themselves as conservatives are still not very popular in the south.

The President is definitely vulnerable. Howard Dean proved that he couldn’t pierce the President’s armor but the Republicans definitely can. Polls are showing he is vulnerable and the American people do not approve of the job he is doing. Since the Karzai assassination his approval has gone back up to about 40-43%. The President has the war in Iraq and the economy in his favor but Afghanistan, the poor way health care was passed, and trouble with his education policy and budget are not helping him at all.

April 17th 2012
   Former President George H.W Bush endorses Former Governor George Pataki of New York for President.

   Gary Johnson drops out of the race for the Republican nomination.

April 18th – National Republican Primary Polling

Romney: 32%
Pataki: 26%
Huckabee: 24%
Palin: 10%
Pawlenty: 8%

April 20th 2012
   Governor Tim Pawlenty drops out of the race and endorses Mitt Romney.

[sentinel]

Mitch Daniels is from Indiana...
Good job!

Surprised I put Tennessee. I must have been thinking of Bob Corker...

[sentinel]

April 22nd

Sarah Palin drops out of the Presidential race and endorses Mike Huckabee and she defends his record on crime.

April 23rd 2012

Primary Zone 3 Primaries Results:

Texas:  Huckabee (40%) Romney (37%) Pataki (23%)

Arkansas: Huckabee (67%) Pataki (18%) Romney (15%)

Louisiana: Huckabee (50%) Romney (33%) Pataki (17%)

Mississippi: Huckabee (48%) Romney (27%) Pataki (25%)

Alabama: Huckabee (52%) Romney (30%) Pataki (18%)

Florida: Pataki (35%) Romney (34%) Huckabee (31%)

Georgia: Huckabee (43%) Romney (32%) Pataki (25%)

Analysis:

Huge wins for Former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee but not unexpected. Florida was thought to be in Romney’s favor but went in Pataki’s favor by only a few thousand votes. Mitt Romney came in second place in every race except for Arkansas where Pataki, surprisingly, edged him out for second place. Pataki’s win in Florida will be played up by the media more because it stands alone amongst the Huckabee landslide.

Green: Huckabee
Red: Romney
Blue: Pataki

April 24th – 28th 2012

   Huckabee surges ahead in the polls while the Pataki and Romney campaigns try to downplay Huckabee’s wins in the south. The Romney campaign begins to go negative with attack commercials and come out with one in particular that is particularly gruesome regarding Huckabee’s pardoning of a convicted rapist. Huckabee responds by calling the advertisement disgusting and saying “clearly the Romney campaign is in trouble,” however; after the advertisement appears in states in Primary Zone 5, Huckabee’s surge evaporates
.
   The Pataki campaign is focusing on saying that Huckabee is a regional candidate who will only appeal in the south. Pataki says Huckabee cannot win in the north or west and will be destroyed by Obama in the general election.

   Mitt Romney begins to resort to using some of his own money again.

National Polling:

Huckabee: 38%
Pataki: ~31%
Romney: ~31%
Nationally, Huckabee has momentum while Romney and Pataki fight for second place.

April 30th

Primary Zone 5 Results

Illinois: Pataki (34%) Romney (34%) Huckabee (32%)

Indiana: Huckabee (40%) Romney (32%) Pataki (28%)

Wisconsin: Romney (41%) Pataki (37%) Huckabee (22%)

Ohio: Pataki (37%) Romney (35%) Huckabee (28%)

Michigan: Romney (45%) Pataki (35%) Huckabee (20%)

Analysis: A mixed bag of nuts. Huckabee runs away with one win out of the five which shows he is not the frontrunner, or at least, extremely vulnerable. Pataki and Romney are still in the game.

End of April Statistics

Obama Approval Rating: 43%

Green: Huckabee
Red: Romney
Blue: Pataki

Delegate Count:
Huckabee: 337
Pataki: 283
Romney: 140

Magic number is 1,128. Note: I’m using winner take all for the Republican primaries.

[sentinel]

May 7th 2012

Primary Zone 1 Results:

Maine: Pataki (40%) Romney (38%) Huckabee (22%)
New York: Pataki (50%) Romney (39%) Huckabee (11%)

New Hampshire: Romney (43%) Pataki (36%) Huckabee (21%)
Vermont: Pataki (41%) Romney (35%) Huckabee (24%)

Massachusetts: Romney (48%) Pataki (45%) Huckabee (7%)
Rhode Island: Pataki (40%) Romney (37%) Huckabee (23%)

Pennsylvania: Romney (37%) Huckabee (36%) Pataki (27%)
New Jersey: Pataki (45%) Romney (40%) Huckabee (15%)

Analysis: A big night for Pataki and Romney with victories across the board for both of them, but is this the end for Huckabee? He has failed to win a single primary in the northeast and had trouble winning in the Midwest. Huckabee came in second only in Pennsylvania which was a surprise to pundits, beating out Pataki by by 9%. We will see what the Huckabee campaign does in the morning.

May 8th 2012
   “Governor Huckabee, you failed to win any primaries last night –and you only came in second in one state Pennsylvania. Will you stay in the race?”

   “Of course, no one has won the nomination yet, and I still have the second most delegates won. This seems to be a race between myself and Governor Pataki. Why don’t you ask Governor Romney that question?”


   “Governor Romney –if you heard Governor Huckabee’s earlier comments, he is questioning if whether or not you will stay in the race…so will you stay in?”

   “We had an excellent showing last night, and we we will have an even bigger victory next week when we win the primaries out West. I’m in this to win it.”

Green: Huckabee
Red: Romney
Blue: Pataki

Head-To-Head Polling May 2012

Obama: 46%
Huckabee: 44%

Romney: 50%
Obama: 45%

Obama: 47%
Pataki: 45%

   The President’s agenda is getting through Congress but with big compromises. The new Speaker proves very willing to compromise on legislation but at the cost of some of President Obama’s ambitions. The President’s education plan passes in May but the media spins it as a Republican plan signed by the President due to the amount of compromises in it. It barely passes the Senate.

[sentinel]

May 14th 2012
Primary Zone 6 Results

Idaho: Romney (45%) Huckabee (35%) Pataki (20%)
Montana: Romney (43%) Huckabee (31%) Pataki (26%)

Utah: Romney (60%) Pataki (24%) Huckabee (16%)
Wyoming: Romney (47%) Huckabee (34%) Pataki (19%)

Arizona: Pataki (46%) Romney (43%)  Huckabee (11%)
New Mexico: Romney (42%) Pataki (40%) Huckabee (18%)

Analysis: This looks like the end for Huckabee. He must clinche 82% of the remaining delegates to grasp the nomination but if 2008 showed us anything it was that Huckabee won’t be out of the race until someone gets the magic number.

Green: Huckabee
Red: Romney
Blue: Pataki

May 18th 2012

   Pakistan, upset over refugees coming out of Afghanistan along with violence on the border, sends 10,000 troops over the border in order to defeat the insurgents and to help restore order in Afghanistan. Pakistan says it notified Russia, India, Iran and the United States before doing so. Pakistan has assured the United Nations Security Council that it will be acting as enforcers of civility and not occupiers.

   Several new governments in Afghanistan condemn the action and say that they control the country, ironically. The Afghan Military Junta that controls the southwest of the country says it will wipe out the invading forces.

   President Obama fumbles the ball on this during a news conference and does not fully recover when asked if pulling out of Afghanistan was a good thing. The media focus on the situation in Afghanistan makes Obama look like he isn’t doing anything about the situation especially after the Karzai assassination.

Obama Approval: 39%

May 28th 2012

National Polling for the Republican Presidential Nomination:

Romney: 43%
Pataki: 37%
Huckabee: 20%

Primary Zone 4 Results

Oklahoma: Huckabee (37%) Romney (34%) Pataki (29%)
Nebraska: Huckabee (35%) Romney (33%) Pataki (32%)

Missouri: Huckabee (36%) Romney (34%) Pataki (30%)
Iowa: Romney (35%) Pataki (33%) Huckabee (32%)

Minnesota: Romney (43%) Pataki (37%) Huckabee (20%)
North Dakota: Romney (45%) Pataki (35%) Huckabee (20%)

South Dakota: Romney (46%) Pataki (34%) Huckabee (21%)

Name (Color): Delegates (Percent of total) (Percent of remaining delegates needed to win)
Romney (Red):  517 (22.92%) (83.58%)
Huckabee (Green): 466 (20.66%) (90.56%)
Pataki (Blue):  541 (23.99%) (80.30%)
Remaining: 731

Pundits agree it looks like it’s going to be a brokered convention. Huckabee’s wins here help reinforce Romney’s and Pataki’s criticisms that Huckabee is a regional candidate, only viable in the south and barely the Midwest.

[sentinel]

June 5th 2012

Primary Zone 7 Results

California: Romney (46%) Pataki (45%) Huckabee (9%)
Alaska: Romney (53%) Pataki (37%) Huckabee (10%)

Hawaii: Romney (45%) Pataki (43%) Huckabee (12%)
Nevada: Romney (56%) Pataki (30%) Huckabee (14%)

Washington: Pataki (48%) Romney (34%) Huckabee (18%)
Oregon: Pataki (45%) Romney (35%) Huckabee (20%)

American Samoa: Romney
Puerto Rico: Romney

Delegate Count:
Romney: 739
Pataki: 587
Huckabee: 466

Pundits: Huckabee might still be running but he has no chance at winning. He has failed to win any primaries in the northeast and west. The race is now between Pataki and Romney. Who wins very well may depend on who Huckabee endorses.


June 12th Primaries

Primary Zone 2 Results (Last set of primaries)

West Virginia: Pataki (40%) Huckabee (30%) Romney (30%)
Kentucky: Pataki (38%) Romney (32%) Huckabee (30%)

Tennessee: Huckabee (35%) Pataki (33%) Romney (32%)
North Carolina: Romney (37%) Pataki (36%) Huckabee (27%)

South Carolina: Romney (48%) Pataki (45%) Huckabee (7%)
Virginia: Romney (50%) Pataki (40%) Huckabee (10%)

Delaware: Pataki (48%) Romney (42%) Huckabee (10%)
DC: Pataki (53%) Romney (40%) Huckabee (7%)

Maryland: Pataki (46%) Romney (43%) Huckabee (11%)

Final Delegate Count:

Romney (Red): 952
Pataki (Blue): 770
Huckabee (Green): 533

States Won:

Romney: 22 + Guam, Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Puerto Rico
Pataki: 17 + DC
Huckabee: 11

June 6th 2012
   Republicans start freaking out over that this will end in a brokered convention. High profile Republicans are contacting both Governor Pataki and Governor Huckabee regarding an endorsement of an opposing candidate (obviously they wouldn’t contact Romney, he’s in the lead). 

Pataki who thinks he is off camera says “There is no way I’m gonna ever endorse Huckabee.”
James Carville comments on Pataki’s statement with “Pataki should not have made that comment anywhere near a TV camera. He’s alienating Huckabee and his endorsement –if Pataki was ever going to get it, he is not going to now.”


June 7th 2012

   Rumors are floating about Governor Huckabee dropping out of the race after speaking to Former President Bush (W & HW), Chuck Norris, Michael Steele and other prominent Republicans.

June 10th 2012
   With the Convention coming up in July, more people call for Huckabee to get out of the way and endorse a candidate.
When President Obama is asked about the Republicans he only responds “I like Huckabee’s sense of humor.”

June 11th 2012

   Vice President Joe Biden announces that he will remain on the ticket for 2012 and adds in that right now he does not intend to seek the nomination in 2016 but he will remain open to the idea but “it depends on a whole lot of things.”

June  15th 2012
   The New York Times reports that Governor Romney and Governor Pataki secretly met and discussed the Republican nomination. Romney and Pataki’s staff deny the report.

June 16th 2012
   Governor Pataki makes a statement “After talking to many people including former President George H.W Bush who is a supporter of my campaign, I have decided to endorse Governor Romney for the Republican nomination. I know he will be able to defeat President Obama for reelection in November.”

June 17th 2012

   Mike Huckabee ends his campaign for President. Chuck Norris cries.

President Obama comments “I look forward to facing Governor Romney at the ballot box in November.”

That same day, Governor Romney makes a speech claiming the nomination.

End of June Ratings
Obama Approval: 38%

Head-To-Head Matchup:
Romney: 51%
Obama: 45%

Dark Blue/Red (90%) – Strong Republican/Democrat
Blue/Red (50%) – Safe Republican/Democrat
Light Blue/Red (30%) – Leans Republican/Democrat

July 1st

   With the Republican National Convention only weeks away (July 20-24) there are a few speculated Vice Presidential nominees for Romney…

-Governor of Louisiana Bobby Jindal
-Former Governor of New York George Pataki
-Governor of Indiana Mitch Daniels
-Former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
-Representative Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee
-Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia

[sentinel]

I hate your timeline, Romney would never win the Nom...

He did pretty well in 2008, didn't he?

I was a little hesitant on making Pataki win since I tend to favor NY politicians anyhow haha.

[sentinel]

I hate your timeline, Romney would never win the Nom...

He did pretty well in 2008, didn't he?

I was a little hesitant on making Pataki win since I tend to favor NY politicians anyhow haha.

Not really, but I just hate Romney, I think Pataki would have won. But you are doing a good job on this timeline.

I rather Pataki win but alas it did not work out that way ...on a funny note I was telling a friend the other day that if Arnold Schwarzenegger could run for President and did, I would switch parties and vote for him just to say that the Terminator is my President.

Thanks! Next update will be this afternoon.

[sentinel]

July 5th 2012

   George Pataki’s spokesman, who thought he was on hold, is caught on speaker phone saying “…turned down Romney’s offer”
   Pataki’s spokesman was quoted as saying “mind your own damned business.”
No comment on any Vice Presidential speculation from the Romney camp.

July 15th 2012

   Mitt Romney announces his choice for Vice President…

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky

Analysis: Rand Paul is relatively new on the political scene but has been involved in politics all his life thanks to his father, Congressman and a few times a Presidential candidate Ron Paul of Texas. This could prove to be a very risky maneuver for Romney who has a lead over President Obama in the polls or it could prove to be a very useful. Richard Nixon was only in the Senate for two years when Dwight D. Eisenhower selected him to be his Vice Presidential nominee.

President Obama and Vice President Biden call Rand Paul to congratulate him on being picked.

July 19th 2012

   Pakistan sends another 10,000 troops into Afghanistan as fighting breaks out between Pakistani and Afghan warlord forces.

July 20th – 24th 2012

   The Republican National Convention occurs in Salt Lake City, Utah. Two keynote speakers are former Governor George Pataki who speaks of national security issues and the problems that the Obama Administration made in Afghanistan and Representative Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee. Blackburn calls for all the “Tea Party” supporters to come and support true conservatives with American values Mitt Romney and Rand Paul.

   Rand Paul’s speech focuses on deficit reduction and transparency in the financial market
.

Post Convention Head-To-Head Polls:
Romney/Paul: 57%
Obama/Biden: 40%

July 25th 2012

   Mitt Romney and Rand Paul begin to campaign around the country. Rand Paul is being cast as an outsider and newcomer to Washington with fresh ideas.
   President Obama takes up a light campaign schedule, since he is President after all, while managing Presidential duties.

End of July Obama Approval: 40%

August 2012

   The Democratic National Convention occurs and President Obama makes his case for re-election known to the country. The President says he has brought the economy back into a full recovery, brought the troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan, passed health care, made the government more transparent, helped support working middle class families, lowered unemployment and invested in education for American children. President Obama says much more has to be done especially in education and Social Security reform.

   The keynote speakers are Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York and Senator Alexi Giannoulias of Illinois.

Post Convention Head-To-Head Polls:
Romney/Paul: 50%
Obama/Biden: 47%

Ralph Nader also announces that he will seek the Presidency as an independent. The Libertarian Party is running Wayne Root for President.

September 2012

A poll held by CNN shows that if the election were held today, President Obama would be very much in danger of losing:

Romney/Rand: 261
Obama/Biden: 168

The economy is doing well but it is not helping the President as the aftermath of the war in Afghanistan is hurting him badly as well as the constant reminder of the way the Administration passed the health care bill which was not supported by the majority of people.

[sentinel]

The economy is doing well but it is not helping the President as the aftermath of the war in Afghanistan is hurting him badly as well as the constant reminder of the way the Administration passed the health care bill which was not supported by the majority of people.

As of February 9, 2010, 63% of Americans support health care reform...

I don't think this is a hack (aren't you a democrat?), but it sure seems it.  Romney would never lead in the polls against Obama if the economy is doing well and health care is passed.  Besides, no one in the US likes Karzai anyways.  I'd be a good day in Afghanistan if he was out of office.

63% of Americans may support health care reform but less than a majority support Obama's plan, nor could anyone agree on what "reform" is or should be.

A good economy helps an incumbent President but NEVER as much as a bad economy hurts him. In this scenario, the slowly expanding economy is not helping the President but its not hurting him either. It's overshadowed by the chaos the US left in Afghanistan by pulling out which started with the Karzai assassination and the intense media coverage of that. Also how the media gave a bad spin to health care being passed via reconciliation. It also hasn't gone into effect yet (most of it anyhow).

I'm a democrat but this scenario revolves around Obama having some troubles.

[sentinel]

September 23rd 2012

   The first Presidential debate occurs between President Obama and Governor Romney. The debate focuses around national security. Romney gives credit to the President for improving America’s image abroad but nails him on Afghanistan and what is currently going on there. President Obama cites successes in Iraq and says Afghanistan’s situation is unfortunate but he did not want to put American lives into a fight that they couldn’t win. The President says “Look Mitt, I’m not LBJ –when I think we can’t win I’m not going to keep our guys in there. You might think that’s a great idea but I don’t.”

A slim majority of people say President Obama won the debate.

Head-To-Head Polling:

Romney/Paul: 48%
Obama/Biden: 44%

October 23rd 2012

   President Obama orders a secret deployment of Special Forces to the mountains betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan based on US, Pakistani and Russian intelligence.

   The second Presidential debate occurs between President Obama and former Governor Romney. The debate focuses on the economy. Romney dismisses Obama claims that his policies helped the economy and falls back on his work in business and as a governor.

   Romney hits Obama hard for not doing enough about the deficit which is still in the trillions as well as the incoming costs of health care that will take full effect in 2013. Obama does not get flustered during the debate but Romney is viewed by a majority to have won the debate.

Head-To-Head Polling:
Romney/Paul: 50%
Obama/Biden: 45%

October 25th

   The Vice Presidential debate occurs but is rather uneventful. Rand Paul comes off as a bit quarrelsome yet proves himself as a worthy contender for the Vice Presidency.

http://October 26th 2012

   Special Forces in Afghanistan begin an assault on a system of caverns that Al-Qaeda operatives are believed to be hidden in. The operation is not known to the public and only senior officials in the military and the administration. Joe Biden is kept in the dark for obvious reasons.

Monday November 5th 2012

Head-To-Head Polling:
Romney/Paul: 51%
Obama/Biden: 46%

Dark Blue/Red (90%) – Strong Republican/Democrat
Blue/Red (50%) – Safe Republican/Democrat
Light Blue/Red (30%) – Leans Republican/Democrat

10:17am EST: President Obama will be addressing the nation at 12pm EST.  Press Secretary Gibbs says he does not know what the address will be on but the President has said it is a matter of “national security.”

Reports are coming out of Afghanistan of rumors of a Special Forces team being deployed there.

[sentinel]

11:00pm – The United States goes to Defcom 3.

11:30pm – A senior aide to the President leaks to reporters that United States Special Forces have killed and taken the body of Osama Bin Laden and that the raise in Defcom level was due to fear of attacks against the United States following his death.

11:43pm – A bomb goes off in the subway of New York City. At least 20 are dead and hundreds more injured.

11:45pm – New York Officials and Federal Officials begin responding to the attack.

12:00pm – National News outlets are covering what has been quickly determined as a terrorist attack and have received no word regarding the President’s speech.

12:07pm – Mayor Michael Bloomberg shutsdown the NYC subway system but allows the LIRR, NJ Transit and MetroNorth to continue running under extreme security procedures.
 
12:10pm – Bloomberg requests the NY Reserves to be placed in Penn Station & Grand Central Station, Governor Cuomo grants the request.

12:11pm – Reports coming in from AP regarding a similar attack in Seattle, Washington.

12:20pm – Reports from Washington DC say the Secret Service shot and killed a would be
 suicide bomber near the White House gates. The White House is on lockdown mode.

12:21pm – The Press in the White House is brought to the bunker for Obama to address the nation from there.

12:30pm – President Obama addresses the nation and starts off with “Last month I ordered United States Special Forces to go into Afghanistan on intelligence that we knew where Osama Bin Laden was hiding. Twelve hours ago our forces shot and killed Osama Bin Laden. Unfortunately in the process we lost two brave soldiers and today as retaliation for the death of Osama Bin Laden there have been several attacks on American soil. Many lives were lost in the subways of New York City today and on the streets of Seattle. We are still receiving information about the attacks and doing all we can to aid the survivors. Help is on the way…due to these attacks the United States will be going into Defcom 3 globally…”
 The President calls for all Americans to be vigilant in the following days and report if they see anything suspicious.
He also adds in “I am also aware that tomorrow is Election Day. I would advocate that everyone goes out to vote still, but use caution. I have instructed state, local and federal officials to increase security at all voting centers.”
Peter Gibbs says that Bin Laden’s body will arrive in an undisclosed airbase in the United States in the following hours and pictures will be available to the media.
Peter Gibbs says that Obama informed Governor Romney earlier in the day.

1:15pm: Gibbs says that President Obama has “more to worry about than voting for himself” in response to a question on the President’s schedule for Election Day.
Governor Romney cancels his schedule for the day.

2:00pm – American Marines kill several would-be suicide bombers outside the American Embassy in Iraq.

2:15pm – Turkish Police kill armed men outside the British Embassy in Turkey.

3:00pm – The FBI raids a sleeper Al-Qaeda cell in San Diego, California.

   Globally there are other incidents like the previous few but nothing as big as the ones in New York or Seattle. In New York 58 people were killed and 27 injured. In Seattle 23 people were killed and 96 injured.

   No one group claims responsibility for the attacks.

[sentinel]

Tuesday November 6th 2012 – Election Day

   President Obama clears his schedule for the day and travels to New York City to meet Governor Cuomo and Mayor Bloomberg in the Bronx. The President holds a joint press conference with the two other officials as well as FEMA and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano.

President Obama then has a video conference with the Governor of Washington Christine Gregoire regarding the same topics, and apologizes for not being able to fly out to Seattle today.

   Pundits are unsure if or how the attacks will play out in the election today. Governor Romney has his first public appearance since two days ago, today –and has been quiet since the attacks.

Romney travels throughout the northeast trying to get people out to vote.

7:00pm polls close in Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

7:05pm: Wolf Blitzer:

We are now ready to call our first state of the night…

Kentucky will go to Governor Mitt Romney.

President Obama is doing very well early on in Georgia and Virginia. The President’s showing in Virginia will show how strongly his supporters came out tonight and if the recent attacks play a role in tonights election.

Soon after Wolf Blitzer announces two more states…

Unsurprisingly, Vermont will go to President Barack Obama

.

8:00pm polls close in New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia, Delaware, Illinois, Alabama, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

Romney is leading in both Virginia and Georgia but only 20% of precincts are reporting.
Wolf Blitzer: Our exit polls are showing a surprising very strong showing for President Obama in Georgia which no Democrat has won since President Clinton. President Obama lost this state in 2008…

Wolf Blitzer makes several calls in a row a few minutes after 8pm

Massachusetts for President Obama
Maryland for President Obama
Delaware for President Obama
Illinois for President Obama
Connecticut for President Obama


Mississippi for Governor Romney
Alabama for Governor Romney
Tennessee for Governor Romney
West Virginia for Governor Romney

Obama/Biden – 54 Electoral Votes – 13,196,450 PV
Romney/Paul – 34 Electoral Votes – 9,003,594 PV

[sentinel]

9:00pm polls close in Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, Wyoming, DC, Florida

We are now able to call the state of Georgia in favor of…

This is a huge --but extremely slim-- win for the President and it could show a movement across the nation in favor of the President. 

New York for President Obama
Rhode Island for President Obama
Minnesota for President Obama
Washington DC for President Obama
Wisconsin for President Obama
Maine for President Obama
New Jersey for President Obama
New Hampshire for President Obama

What is also surprising is that we cannot call South Carolina for anyone yet. Romney should have been able to pull off an easy victory here.

We can call Nebraska for Mitt Romney with one congressional district still up in the air.
Wyoming for Governor Romney
Kansas for Governor Romney
Arkansas for Governor Romney
Louisiana for Governor Romney
Oklahoma for Governor Romney

Obama/Biden – 153 Electoral Votes – 28,331,833 PV
Romney/Paul – 51 Electoral Votes – 20,505,961 PV

[sentinel]

10:00pm polls close Iowa, Montana, Nevada, and Utah

More states are called at 10pm as the polls close…

In an unexpected blow to Mitt Romney, Michigan is carried by President Obama.

Pundits: It looks like Americans are rallying behind their President in response to the terror attacks and the capture and death of Osama Bin Laden.

Pennsylvania is carried by President Obama
Virginia is carried by President Obama
Florida is carried by President Obama

Nebraska’s second congressional district goes for President Obama

Utah goes for Governor Romney
Texas goes for Governor Romney

Pundits: The election can’t be called yet because people are still voting on the West Coast but unless California fails to deliver for the President, then President Obama will be re-elected tonight.

Obama/Biden – 227 Electoral Votes – 43,694,406 PV
Romney/Paul – 116 Electoral Votes – 36,197,111 PV[

[sentinel]

11:00pm polls close in Idaho, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

Wolf Blitzer: We are now ready to call the presidential election of 2012, as well as all of California’s electoral votes, in favor of President Barack Obama. The President has defeated Governor Romney and will serve a second term.

Results are still coming in though. How large of a victory the President has is unclear.

Results at the moment the election was called:

Obama/Biden – 286 Electoral Votes – 51,107,291 PV
Romney/Paul – 119 Electoral Votes – 40,433,046 PV


Next: Morning After Analysis & Extensive Results

[sentinel]

Morning After Results & Analysis:

President Barack H. Obama /Vice President Joseph R. Biden – 410 Electoral Votes (76%) –71,263,973 (53.5%) Popular Vote

Governor Willard “Mitt” Romney/Senator Rand Paul –129 Electoral Votes (22.4%) – 60,363,120 (45.4%) Popular Vote

 Minor Candidates: 1,417,925 (1.1%)

Analysis:
   The Presidents victory came on the coattails of his strong reaction to the terrorist attacks on November 5th and the capture of Osama Bin Laden. What is important to note is that in terms of the popular vote he received about the same percentage as in 2008, but significantly more actual vote. In regards to theElectoral College, this is a huge victory for President Obama sweeping 76% of the college, however; the President’s victories in many of the states he won in 2008 was extremely slim. Mitt Romney proved to be a formidable opponent in many states that were considered safely Democratic and probably would have won if it wasn’t for the terrorist attacks.      

30% Red/Blue = exactly or less than 1% margin of victory
50% Red/Blue = 1.1-2.9% margin of victory
70% Red/Blue = 3-5% margin of victory
(EV with less than 5% of margin of victory = 214 Electoral Votes that went in favor of the Democrats, 4 in Favor of the Republicans)

Margin of Victory - % Color
5% & under - 30%
5-15% -  50%
15-25% - 60%
25-35%-  70%
35-50% - 90%

Senate Results:
Texas: Republican Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst wins Kay Bailey Hutchinson’s seat. No party change.
California: Feinstein wins re-election
Delaware: Carper wins re-election

Florida: Nelson wins re-election
Hawaii: Akaka wins re-election

Michigan: Stabenow wins re-election
Minnesota: Klobuchar wins re-election

Missouri: McCaskill wins re-election
Montana: Tester wins re-election

Nebraska: Nelson wins a slim re-election
New Jersey: Menendez wins re-election

North Dakota: Conrad wins re-election
Ohio: Brown wins re-election

Pennsylvania: Casey wins re-election
Rhode Island: Whitehouse wins re-election

Virginia: Webb wins re-election
West Viginia: Democratic Governor Joe Manchin wins Robert Byrd’s seat.

Washington: Cantwell wins re-election
Wisconsin: Kohl wins re-election

Vermont: Former Governor Howard Dean wins election to the United States Senate following the retirement of Bernie Sanders.
Connecticut: Governor Jodi Rell beats Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont for Senate. +1 Republicans.

Arizona: Kyl wins re-election
Indiana: Dick Lugar wins reelection.

Maine: Snowe wins re-election
Massachusetts: Brown wins re-election

Mississippi: Wicker wins re-election
Nevada:  Ensign wins re-election

Tennessee: Corker wins re-election
Utah: Hatch wins re-election

Wyoming: Barrasso wins re-election
New York: Gillibrand wins re-election

Senate Composition:
Democrats: 51
Republicans: 49

*Note, I realized I never stipulated that Evan Bayh won re-election or even ran in 2010. In my timeline, he runs for re-election, wins and announces that his 2011-2017 term will be his last term as Senator.

House Composition:
Democrats: 219 (+2)
Republicans: 220 (-2)

Democrats maintain a small majority in the Senate while a one-seat majority for the Republicans shows their grasp on power.

Gubernatorial Races 2012:

Indiana: Republican Mike Pence wins a first term as Governor.
Vermont: Democratic Governor Deb Markowitz wins a full term as Governor.

Utah: Republican Governor Gary Herbet wins a full term of his own.
New Hampshire: Democratic Governor John Lynch wins a fifth two year term.

Montana: Republican Representative Dennis Rehberg is elected Governor.
West Virginia: Democratic Lt. Governor Earl Ray Tomblin is elected Governor.

Delaware: Democratic  Governor Jack Markell wins a second term as Governor.
Missouri: Democratic Governor Jay Nixon wins a second term as Governor.

North Carolina: Democratic Beverly Purdue slides into a win on the President’s coattails and wins a second term as Governor.

Washington: Democratic Christine Gregoire wins a second term as Governor.
North Dakota: Republican Governor Jack Dalrymple wins a term of his own.

I realized I never posted the 2010 gubernatorial results so I made em and put them on the first post.