Ontario 2011 (6th October) (user search)
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Author Topic: Ontario 2011 (6th October)  (Read 84762 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #75 on: October 06, 2011, 08:57:00 PM »
Essex is looking very good for the NDP.

NDP might not win in Weston.

A quarter of the polls in, in TriSpa and the Liberals still holding on.

Thornhill closer than expected, Libs nipping at the Tories heels.

PC Party will be seatless in the 416
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #76 on: October 06, 2011, 09:08:40 PM »
The PC Party is not off on vote count but is off in Toronto; in terms of projections.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #77 on: October 06, 2011, 09:21:40 PM »
Lib - 53
PC - 37
NDP - 17

Still a few undecided races
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #78 on: October 06, 2011, 09:35:58 PM »
Pop Vote
Lib - 37.45%
PC - 35.31%
NDP - 22.94%
Grn - 3.03%
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #79 on: October 06, 2011, 09:49:34 PM »
First NDP, or even CCF, win in Peel. Ever. I'll look up if the Progressives ever won here.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #80 on: October 06, 2011, 09:57:24 PM »
No, Peel county has never elected an NDPer, at Provincial or Federal level, since 1867. This includes the NDP, CCF, Progressives, etc.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #81 on: October 06, 2011, 10:01:53 PM »
Undecided ridings with leads, seconds

Sudbury - Lib/NDP
Perth - PC/Lib
Niagara - Lib/PC
Kit Cen - Lib/PC
York S W - Lib/NDP
Northum - PC/Lib
Davenp - NDP/Lib
TriSpa - NDP/Lib

Decided
Lib - 49
PC - 35
NDP - 15
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #82 on: October 06, 2011, 10:16:10 PM »
Smelling more and more like a Minority
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #83 on: October 06, 2011, 10:21:10 PM »
I cant see the Tories or NDP allowing that. The NDP in particular would want to be able to exercise their newfound power.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #84 on: October 06, 2011, 10:25:28 PM »
Unlikely the NDP can find 500 extra votes for them over the Liberals in the last poll in Sudbury
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #85 on: October 06, 2011, 10:27:22 PM »
The lead in Perth for the Tories is also too big IMO.

Same with YSW.

The other ridings *should* stay as they are.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #86 on: October 06, 2011, 10:38:15 PM »
Quote from: VICTORY 10.06.11 on October 06, 2011, 10:34:20 PM
Comments on my crazy day tomorrow... but now... Victory. We won. Forward, Together.

Also, screw you Lister, Bloess, Monette, Galipeau, Citizen and Le Droit. Because we owned. Also, props to Naqvi in O-C, IMPRESSIVE!
You won a minority Tongue
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #87 on: October 06, 2011, 10:43:15 PM »
CBC PROJECTS LIBERAL MINORITY
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #88 on: October 07, 2011, 07:13:11 AM »
Ontario gets new boundaries when Canada does, which is 2014
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #89 on: October 07, 2011, 07:40:53 AM »
The popular vote was 37.62% to 35.43% which is 2 points away from a tie, meanwhile the Liberals nearly won a Majority on that. If not for Singh, they would have.

In the recent Federal election there was a vote shift, and the Federal Liberals look a heck of a lot more like the provincial Liberals. Look at the light blue ridings near Peterborough, ridings the OLP held two days ago. The Feds did not really manage to do well here compared to the Tories. The new stripped-down Federal Liberals however did comparatively well here. The Federal voting patterns looked more like provincial patterns following the last election. What we saw last night was a strengthening of the vote for the PC Party in rural areas, all of em, and now the provincial vote share looks a lot more like the federal share.

I'll need to run some experiments, but my guess is that the vote share of the three parties is now very very close when you compare Provincial to Federal. This has never happened before. This is, however, interesting. The OLP has always been more moderate, and the federal party may need to move in this direction if they want to win 53 seats from Ontario.

More on this later.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #90 on: October 07, 2011, 08:23:07 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2011, 08:35:47 AM by Teddy (SoFE) »
Quote from: Holmes on October 07, 2011, 08:09:37 AM
Sault Ste. Marie should be purple. CPC and OLP hold it. And Oshawa should be dark blue. Barrie as well.

Crap
And Windsor has errors too.


FIXD


Combined MP and MPPs
C 110
L 68
N 35
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #91 on: October 07, 2011, 03:30:28 PM »
Quote from: Hatman on October 07, 2011, 11:14:48 AM
One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!
I find this post offensive actually, and if I thought the moderator of this forum was impartial, I'd report it.

You chose to be there. Democracy is democracy, and the DRO counts the ballots, not you, and he counts it the way he wants to.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #92 on: October 07, 2011, 11:16:51 PM »
Remember the Freedom Party is another Libertarian party.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #93 on: October 07, 2011, 11:29:52 PM »
Quote from: adma on October 07, 2011, 08:44:23 PM
From glimpsing results, it seems to me like the Libertarians fared better (well, in numbers of 1%+ candidates) than they have for over 20 years--dunno whether it's a "Ron Paul" effect...

I thought you were wrong (I was clicking though the map) until I hit the GTA. Wow! What the hell is going on there?

I'll do some numbers.

Quote from: Hatman on October 07, 2011, 07:44:27 PM
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on October 06, 2011, 01:42:45 AM
Quote from: Hatman on October 05, 2011, 10:18:30 PM
Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

BTW, did I win the bet, or did both of us lose?

What kind of coffee do you like?
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #94 on: October 08, 2011, 12:12:24 AM »
Hatman: sure

Results:
Toronto, York, East York, North York
Lib - 47.84%
NDP - 28.79%
PC - 19.49%
Grn - 2.53%
Lt - 0.42%
FP - 0.33%
Oth - 0.61%

Etobicoke
Lib - 50.51%
PC - 29.49%
NDP - 15.60%
Grn - 2.28%
Ltn - 0.57%
FP - 0.55%
Oth - 1.00%

Brampton, Mississauga
Lib - 44.69%
PC - 32.01%
NDP - 18.74%
Grn - 2.80%
Ltn - 0.49%
FP - 0.35%
Oth - 0.92%

Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, King City, Whitchurck-Stoufville
Lib - 48.04%
PC - 37.36%
NDP - 10.12%
Grn - 2.43%
Ltn - 1.46%
FP - 0.07%
Oth - 0.53%

Scarborough, Pickering, Ajax
Lib - 46.60%
PC - 29.35%
NDP  - 20.64%
Grn - 2.02%
Ltn - 0.98%
FP - 0.26%
Oth - 0.15%

TOTALS
Lib - 47.18% - 674,925
PC - 27.54% - 393,983
NDP - 21.19% - 303,196
Grn - 2.46% - 35,256
Ltn - 0.71% - 10,134
FP - 0.30% - 4,260
Oth - 0.61% - 8,786
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #95 on: October 08, 2011, 07:04:10 AM »
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on October 07, 2011, 11:16:51 PM
Remember the Freedom Party is another Libertarian party.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #96 on: October 08, 2011, 04:47:27 PM »
Quote from: adma on October 08, 2011, 03:15:16 PM
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on October 08, 2011, 12:12:24 AM

Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, King City, Whitchurck-Stoufville
Lib - 48.04%
PC - 37.36%
NDP - 10.12%
Grn - 2.43%
Ltn - 1.46%
FP - 0.07%
Oth - 0.53%


That NDP figure seems low. There weren't *that* many under-10% up there, were there?

I may have erred, but also remember that some ridings in the area are huge.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #97 on: October 08, 2011, 05:03:26 PM »
I deleted the original so again it could be an error. There are only 5 ridings in there so you guys could recalc it
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #98 on: October 11, 2011, 12:55:56 AM »
Dufferin Caledon has no business being Green, but it's been among the top few Greenist ridings for a decade
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #99 on: October 15, 2011, 06:35:43 PM »
Quote from: 555 95472 on October 15, 2011, 11:41:40 AM
it's also full of people who make their living selling the organic products of their self-consciously small farms at farmers' markets
Which does not fit in anywhere else in Rural ontario
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