SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[mileslunn]

Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again.  Although not too familiar with Swedish politics, here in Canada many on the left like point to Nordic Countries as examples we should follow and I like to point out 4 of the 5 Nordic countries have centre-right governments and since Denmark is likely to swing right in 2015, if Sweden sticks with the centre-right that would mean the right governs all Nordic Countries.  Considering how Sweden is doing better than most European countries, I would think that should help the governing party, mind you where I live we use first past the post rather than proportional representation thus coalitions are rare and majority governments (even if the winning party doesn't get over 50% which they usually don't) are the norm.

[mileslunn]

Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again. 

No. It's 10 to 20 points behind in the polls.

That may seem like a long shot, but I've seen parties come behind by further.  In France 2012 and Denmark 2011, the left held similar leads yet in both cases just barely scraped by.  It seems in much of Europe, polls tend to underestimate the right in its support, at least amongst mainstream right wing parties (they often overestimate the hard right).

[mileslunn]

I don't see Alliance minority as viable either. I think the most likely outcome then is S-MP, if they have enough votes for that to make sense. If F gets in they'll probably be included but I don't think F will get in.

So otherwise a grand coalition sort of like you have right now in Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium.

My question is how do those work out as I know in the English speaking world they would be DOA considering how much the right and left hate each other.  But it seems in Europe there isn't the same animosity you see in the English speaking countries.