LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Greg Brannon is running in NC-02, effectively making it a three-way race. Brannon cleaned up in southern Wake County in 2014, so he shouldn't be dismissed.

[Miles]

^ Tricia Cotham also filed today for CD12. I knew we'd see more of get after she announced her retirement from the Assembly a few months ago.

[Miles]

^ If Brannon wins CD2, the closest recent parallel would be Marlin Stutzman in 2010, where he lost the Senate primary but won a House seat later that year.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: To the extent he's still relevant, Ben Carson endorses Maness.

[Miles]

^ For some reason, I don't think that the black vote was what the Maness campaign was targeting by rolling out this endorsement.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: JBE is supporting Campbell.

[Miles]

^ Expected. But i would try something "new" (Pellerin, for example) instead of the "old hand" (with it's well-known pluses and minuses)....

Yeah, but Foster is popular in his PSC district which includes some rough turf.

[Miles]

LA-03: The poll is a few weeks old, but Angelle has an internal where he pretty easily avoids a runoff:

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[Miles]

LA-02: Despite being at a serious geographic disadvantage, ex-Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden (D) is challenging Rep. Richmond.

I wish the Democrats had talked him into CD6 instead. It's tough, but in his LG runoff last year, he got 47% there, far ahead of Obama's 33%. Would have been good wave insurance.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: JBE is supporting Campbell.

From my inbox, JBE is now actively raising money for Campbell. That link from April was just about what he told the DSCC, but looks he's being more overt now.

[Miles]

^ Yep.

Just on the R side, you have Fleming competing with Maness, and Boustany with Kennedy. Combine that with the three Democrats (and Indie Dem Troy Hebert), and no way anyone clears 50%.

[Miles]

LA-02: Despite being at a serious geographic disadvantage, ex-Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden (D) is challenging Rep. Richmond.

I wish the Democrats had talked him into CD6 instead. It's tough, but in his LG runoff last year, he got 47% there, far ahead of Obama's 33%. Would have been good wave insurance.

I don't get this.  By all accounts, Richmond is above board and doing right by his constituents.  What does Holden think his angle is here?

I don't get it, either.

He wasn't a great fundraiser when he ran statewide, and underperformed in the New Orleans area even then (e.g., losing Jefferson Parish 65/35 while JBE carried it).

Richmond is popular with the rank and file members of the state party, as well, so I don't think that makes Holden's fundraising any easier.

[Miles]

^ Yeah, listening to Campbell on the stump (e.g., he goes first in this forum) he's definitely the most populist-sounding, which would help. He's also popular in his PSC district, which is a lot of northern LA.

[Miles]

I am a bit worried about this LA race. It is guaranteed to go to a runoff, right?

If this is serious, why?  Are you worried about a D vs. D or D vs. Lefty I runoff due to vote splitting? Or are you worried about Campbell tapping into disaffected Trumpy turnout and beating an R outright like JBE did last year?

Yeah, I'm worried about Campbell winning the runoff, especially if control of the Senate is already settled. Democrats can still win a Senate race in LA against a weak Republican. I'm generally worried about open seats - they can cause much trouble. 

Absolutely. If Landrieu faced a weak candidate in 2014 she would have been reelected. Open Senate seats should never be taken for granted. (See Rick Berg 2012 as a classic example.) It would also be interesting (and scary) if the runoff ended up deciding Senate control.

What would be really interesting is if Trump is President-Elect and the senate is 50D/49R pending LA (IL, WI, NH and FL flipped).  It's likely Trump would secretly prefer a D-controlled senate with red state populists like Manchin and Campbell holding all the cards vs. an R-controlled senate for his budget negotiations with Ryan.

To make it even more interesting, suppose Trumpists also propelled Barksdale into a runoff in GA even as Trump comfortably won the state.

Yeah, if you gave me the general script of Campbell's announcement ad and didn't tell me who it was for, I might have guessed Trump. He mentions revesring our trade deals and beefing up border security, among other things.

[Miles]

^ Looks like all he had as of the last report (at the end of March) was a $250K self-loan. I guess JBE's endorsement will help with that. JBE didn't have issues raising money in his race, and I don't see why that wouldn't be the case in a runoff this time. 

[Miles]

LA-02: Despite being at a serious geographic disadvantage, ex-Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden (D) is challenging Rep. Richmond.

I wish the Democrats had talked him into CD6 instead. It's tough, but in his LG runoff last year, he got 47% there, far ahead of Obama's 33%. Would have been good wave insurance.

I don't get this.  By all accounts, Richmond is above board and doing right by his constituents.  What does Holden think his angle is here?

I don't get it, either.

He wasn't a great fundraiser when he ran statewide, and underperformed in the New Orleans area even then (e.g., losing Jefferson Parish 65/35 while JBE carried it).

Richmond is popular with the rank and file members of the state party, as well, so I don't think that makes Holden's fundraising any easier.

And the LA Democratic party endorsed Richmond yesterday.

It looks like they only have candidates for CDs 2 and 6 (though the filing deadline is still two months away).

[Miles]

LA-03: Not as large a lead as the last one, but a poll from the Trafalgar Group has Angelle clearly up (all the candidates are Republicans):

Angelle  - 39%
Higgins  - 18%
Ellison - 8%
Geymann - 5%

[Miles]

Some maps from last week's House primaries in NC.

First, my personal favorite, CD3:



CD2, where Holding crushed:



The very close CD9:



CD12 - I was rooting for Cotham, but she's young and will have other opportunities. Very impressive that Adams won so comfortably despite being from Greensboro:



And finally, CD13, which was the biggest clown car I've seen in a while:

[Miles]

Harris is requesting a recount in CD9; he's currently trailing Pittenger by 135 votes.

[Miles]

LA-SEN: The other candidate reports will be out soon, but Campbell slightly outraised Kennedy:

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[Miles]

Does anyone have a detailed map of the new NC CDs?  I have some family in Wake County, and it looks pretty close as to which side they would be on, so I was just a little curious.

Here's a Google maps overlay of the new (and old) districts.

[Miles]

The last time he was on the ballot there:

[Miles]

^ When I posted that map on Twitter, I by far got the most comments about Monica Monica!

[Miles]

LA-Sen: The Landrieu wing of the Democratic Party is pretty hard at work for Fayard, as she's claiming to have raised $1.1 million this last quarter.

[Miles]

^ Well, Louisiana has one of the better state Democratic parties in the south