Do you think John McCain is going to lose this time?

[Vosem]

I can imagine McCain losing to Ward, though considering how he destroyed Hayworth I really don't think it'll happen. McCain does still have contacts (Palin has lost prominence since 2010 but I'd imagine she still has some pull with these types of voters) on the anti-establishment side of the GOP who will pull for him if necessary. In the general, Kirkpatrick of course can win if there is a sufficiently large Democratic wave, but I tend to doubt it; Arizona is a pretty inelastic state and it's not a place where the Republican base will be put off by one of the more extreme presidential nominees.

As to McCain dying in his seat, I thought it was well-known that Martha McSally is his intended successor, and he's running again because she wouldn't be able to win the primary as a first-term Congresswoman. He'll most likely retire in 2022 (though I can imagine her losing her seat, McCain not finding a new "successor", and ending up running for yet another term as he tries to groom someone else). Chuck Grassley and Dick Shelby strike me as die-in-the-seat types, but I don't really think McCain is.