Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread

[lilTommy]

Not sure if others who are connected with the Liberals and PCs are seeing this but, I'm seeing a number of provincial NDP candidates from June running for municipal wards now. I'm sure they are hoping for name recognition to help, and note 4 were 2nd place high performing NDP candidates (White, Holland, Dhillon and Shan) There is nothing new i suppose but i feel its very sudden so many prov. candidates are jumping municipally, no?

Brian White - Sarnia
Mary Rita Holland - Kingston
Gurpreet Singh Dhillon - Brampton
Alex Cullen - Ottawa
Thomas Gallezot - Toronto (ward 16)
Neethan Shan - Toronto (ward 42)
Margaret Johnston - Kitchener
Joe Cressy - Toronto (ward 20)(although it was the Federal by-election)

[lilTommy]

Have any of you heard of Poletical? looks like they have an online poll of the TO mayoral race:

http://www.poletical.com/toronto-election-race-2014.php?formI3132Posted=true

Tory - 31%
Chow - 29%
Ford - 19%
Socknaki - 17%

The outlier for me is Socknaki, I have never seen him above like 5%! Its online, and he seems to be playing well with the urban-hipster-but-not-ndp-voter. 

"Poletical's poll results were acquired exclusively online. Only IP addresses from Toronto were counted, while multiple votes and votes from outside of Toronto were discarded. Through the month of August, 521 Torontonians took the poll. Votes received from people who chose 'under 18' were not counted in these results."

[lilTommy]

Jon Stewart endorses Chow: http://www.torontosun.com/2014/09/08/jon-stewart-pulling-for-olivia-chow-in-mayors-race

Is this a game changer? He should mention her on his show.

YAY! a lil'boost for Chow among those who are tittering between her and Soknacki I think... Also hear he might drop out this week?

Anywho... wonder what Sarah Thomson is up to? she is now joined the 20+ candidates in the race for ward 20
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sarah-thomson-quits-race-for-mayor-will-seek-council-seat-1.2760487?utm_content=bufferb3fed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

My estimate is that she will actually do rather well, if 2010's Ward 27 race tells us anything, a candidate can win with under 30%. But I think it will be Cressy with a slim margin over Thomson; there are no other "big" names that I can see running there outside those two.

[lilTommy]

TO: Soknacki has dropped out.

Does that benefit Chow more than the others ?

Possibly... Soknacki and Chow hold similar positions on transit (only candidates to support the LRT option) they also previously had worked together on council both on the budget committee and from what I can see get along rather well. I don't see him endorsing Tory, mostly over his platform but Soknacki is a centrist, but seems to have gathered a strong lite-progressive-liberal-uber-hipster following. He's never really polled that well so she could expect maybe, IF he endorses here a 5% boost? I have two friends who were voting for him, one had Chow as his second choice the other Tory, I think that tells the story there.

[lilTommy]

NOW has a breakdown of the ward races:
http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=199508

also, just to note there are 27 Candidates in ward 20 (Cresy, Thomson)

[lilTommy]

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/toronto2014election/2014/09/12/giorgio_mammoliti_in_close_fight_in_york_west_poll_suggests.html

Toronto Council races, Forum poll, small sizes, marin is 7%

Ward 7
Mammoliti 37% (crazy reactionist conservative type)
Nick DiNizio 33% (looks conservative, just not as ridiculous as mammo)

Ward 2
Michael Ford 50% (Doug Fords son, Rob's nephew, populist conservative obviously)
Andray Domise 30% (progressive, Liberal I believe)

Ward 30
Paula Fletcher 56% (established NDP candidate)
Liz West 18% (moderate centrist type)
Jane Farrow 13% (another leftist, grassroots, non-aligned so left liberals might like her)

Ward 32
Mary-Margaret McMahon 60% (moderately progressive, more centrist with left tendencies)
Sandra Bussin 21% (former Councillor, NDP)

Ward 20
Joe Cressy 47% (established left NDP)
while other candidates (26 or so) are stuck in single digits (not sure if that including Thomson)

[lilTommy]

CONFIRMED:

Doug Ford running for mayor.
Rob Ford running for council in Ward 2.

Michael Ford running for School Trustee now

[lilTommy]

New poll:
http://globalnews.ca/news/1566237/john-tory-opening-up-big-lead-over-olivia-chow-doug-ford-poll/

Tory - 43% (+2)
Chow - 29% (+ 10)
DFord - 28% (-6)

Three days ago:
http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/toronto2014election/2014/09/12/poll_doug_ford_starts_mayoral_campaign_in_competitive_second_place.html

Tory - 41%
DFord - 34%
Chow - 19%

[lilTommy]

Vote compass is doing the Toronto election: http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/votecompass/toronto2014.html

I got:

Chow: 73%
Tory: 52%
Ford: 29%

I got:

I got:

Chow: 86%
Tory: 49%
Ford: 23%

[lilTommy]

http://www.poletical.com/toronto-mayoral-race-october.php?formI3264PostFailed=true

Tory - 36%
Chow - 30%
Ford - 20%

[lilTommy]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/multimedia/explore-toronto-s-political-landscape-by-issue-1.2815817?utm_content=buffer2ceee&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

This is a review of the actual issues based on ward by ward support (Subways vs LRT, Airport expansion, Affordable housing, etc)
Some very interesting results; many areas that have the highest levels of poverty, immigrants and low income earners support some of the more right-wing conservative stances (and in fact harmful/detrimental policies that make their lives worse) The Ford ideology has permeated these areas.. its really rather sad. The left has it's work cut out for it!

[lilTommy]

Miller was a Harvard-educated Bay St. lawyer so he probably had more appeal among the affluent.  As I said, Chow would have had to have out-polled Miller in Scarborough, Weston, Rexdale etc.

Exactly; Fords hardcore wealthier, whiter contingent would have stayed home i think, they are loyal to the brand name and Tory is elitist to them, I think chow would have worked extra hard in those wards that Miller won to get their vote and i think many would have gone her way... but the turnout would have been in the 30's and that would have helped her.
Miller won Wards 1 in Etobicoke, 8&9 in North York, 11 in York and 42, 35 & 36 in Scarborough 
17 (Toronto but older, Italian, Latin neighbourhoods) all won by Fords... this year EXCEPT 35&36 won by Tory. Miller also won 15, 21 and 22 those are those wealthier educated socially liberal areas that went en masse Tory.
Chow might have wont all these additional wards (15,21,22 maybe...) but it would have been a much more policy directed campaign and Chow's had Tory beat on that.

[lilTommy]

Tory won with a "Bloomberg" type constituency of largely affluent voters.  The Chow campaign just seemed confused, not sure if they wanted to resurrect the Miller coalition or trying to take more of a left-populist "De Blasio" approach.

Chow's campaign started as Miller2.0 but then changed into a DeBlasio-esk campaign.

[lilTommy]

But, in Rosedale-Moore Park I bet Tory won 70-80% and i'm being conservative there.
Toronto's ward 27 is home to the Gay Village BUT ward 28 and 30 have significant gay populations, in fact the whole old city is pretty diverse when it comes to LGBT, large numbers in most DT wards but in those two in particular (older, more professional in Cabbagetown and St. Lawrence in ward28 and Riverdale/Leslieville in ward 30) arguably have the most spill over. Taking a look at those two removes the old money Rosedale that sku's centre-right/Liberal to give you a better idea of how overall LGBT voted...
28 - Tory 46%, Chow 37%
30 - Tory 43%, Chow 42%
... basically LGBT voted for anyone but Ford and it depended on more then just being LGBT. Speaking personally, oh my friends, acquaintances who are also LGBT, it was about 50-50, maybe 60-40 Chow-Tory.

[lilTommy]

Just saw this on my FB feed... looks like polls?

Chow - won the York University Student ghetto big, also the TO Islands... and this long mixed sliver of support unsurprisingly reminiscent of the ONDP polls won in the summer, mostly a Tory/Chow mix.
 
Ford - Owned North Etobicoke, Western  North York and York; surprisingly competitive with Tory in Scarborough, Yes he won most of the polls north of the Lakeshore but not by huge margins.

Tory - No surprise, Rosedale, Leaside, Forrest Hill North through that wealthy central belt, as well as the wealthier older areas of Etobicoke and Scarborough. The old city was a battle with Chow, with Tory winning along the waterfront, High Park and the Beaches, Chow winning over Regent Park, Riverdale and western core (Parkdale, Kensington, South Annex, UofT)

[lilTommy]

Here are my proposed Toronto ward maps in a handy travel-size: http://tinyurl.com/Proposed-TOWards

There are three scenarios:

38 Wards -- This proposal would reduce city council by six members without having wards cross the Humber River or Victoria Park Ave.

44 Wards -- This proposal would freeze the size of city council at its current level.

50 Wards -- This proposal would add six councillors by splitting each of the 25 new federal electoral districts in half.


The well-compensated consultants responsible for redrawing the ward boundaries will be holding public meetings in December and January for some reason.  http://www.drawthelines.ca/

If we can only choose new boundaries... I prefer the 50 wards model you have there. It would be the least controversial (outside of adding 6 Councillors which will rile up Ford and Mammo) as in its basically what they did last time around.

But i'm with Hatman; I'd rather see more Councillors and a MTL styled City wide Councillors with Boroughs Mayors and borough councillors kind of system.

[lilTommy]

Boundary Review proposals!
http://static1.squarespace.com/static/53bc0914e4b0eb57996e4dee/t/55ca03a7e4b030afc3b39487/1439302567071/TorontoWardBoundaryReview.ConsultationGuide.August11.pdf

or
http://torontoist.com/2015/08/toronto-ward-boundary-review-a-primer/

5 proposals:
1 - Minor Changes - 47 wards, 61K average size
2 - 44 wards - 70K average size
3 - Small wards, 58 wards - 50K average size
4 - Large wards, 38 wards - 75K average size
5 - Natural boundaries, 41 wards - 70K average size

I've filled out the survey and prefer the #3 small wards and then #1 minor changes. 

[lilTommy]

"During the Round One public consultation phase there was ample support for small wards to warrant the development of this option.  Many people believe that smaller wards improve citizen access and the Councillors' capacity to represent their constituents"



Bout time Toronto changed its ward boundaries. I of course support option 3 as well. (Look at how small some of those wards are. Squee!)

I know! look at ward 338! You could walk that whole ward in probably 30-45 minutes.
I made one suggestion in regards to wards 320 and 319... to move the portion of 319 above front to ward 320, and move the area south of the Rail lines from 320 to 319. Basically moving King west Village and that portion of the DT financial core, i think the change would be more contiguous... if the population works

[lilTommy]

I of course had to come up with names for the proposed wards:

And why not... were on the same page for many.. me being picky here:

Spadina-Christie Pitts - I don't like using street names, I'd go with Annex-Christie Pitts or even Annex-University
Trinity - Works, but I'd make it Trinity-Kensington (to represent the two east-west sides of the ward)
Midtown - I'd go with neighbourhoods, Rosedale-Forrest Hill
Eglinton - Again i'd go with the neighbourhoods, Davisville
I probably could go on