Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Likud apparatchiks are briefing to the effect that a grand coalition would be a good idea.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any way of telling which areas have been counted so far?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, they're still looking at the upper range of their election period polls even if maybe the exit polls overestimated them a tad (but then I always expect Labor to drop a couple of seats overnight). The news, so to speak, is elsewhere.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which areas are still uncounted, incidentally?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There isn't an obvious way of knowing (other than soldiers, prisoners, Hospital patients and embassy workers, that will be counted later).

Worth a try

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Joint List pulls ahead of Yesh Atid.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given certain issues even that lineup doesn't look exactly stable.

Anyway, shame about the overnight seat movements, but this is overall a significantly better result than I would have expected last year, so...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think we have to question whether a plurality of Isreali people care about that.

I have to believe that a plurality of Israeli people would rather live in a democracy at peace than a hybrid regime at perpetual war. I have to.

Whatever a plurality may or not think about those or indeed other issues (and a billion surveys all contradicting each other mightily can be produced at this point), the overwhelming tendency is to vote along sectional lines.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have results by subdistrict been calculated? They were useful for mapping purposes last time round.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So essentially the Israeli electoral system is like the Schleswig-Holstein Question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist.

It's more that while they exist on an electoral (and demographic) level, they are not political coalitions in embryo and there are rather more than the two that the media sometimes talk about.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voting for them is brilliant if you're agnostic on whether the left or right rules but want the new government to respect your issue.

Why in their heyday Shas were even able to extend way beyond their obvious base by playing the ethnicity card with much vigour and decisiveness.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maps of the results - by municipality - in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area:



_{To an extent this is a test map with a generic key (for municipal and lower results) that can be used everywhere (I would use something more specific for larger territorial units). Note that 50% includes everything from that point up to the nineties.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clearly Lieberman is a dish served cold kind of guy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lmao