Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey Max, you said Liberals had no shot at Ungava

I'm very surprised by it, Earl. Don't blame me.

BUT IT'S YOUR FAULT.



Lots of surprises all around, but hey- it's a Canadian provincial election. Expect the unexpected.

[Hatman 🍁]

The famous 2 boxes left in most ridings are the postal vote for people living in foreign countries, TVA said.

I figured it was something like that. I wonder how the electoral district of "Florida" will vote?

I'm thinking Quebecers living abroad are probably wealthy, so perhaps bad news for QS.

[Hatman 🍁]

Map. Thanks to Smid for getting it started for me.

[Hatman 🍁]

I suppose CAQ did poorly with the advance polls, as they were in the tank at the time. The fun thing about advance polls is, it's a snapshot in time to a point earlier in the campaign.

Another example is in the 2011 federal election, where the NDP won the E-Day vote in Westmount-Ville-Marie, but the advance votes came before the orange wave, and so were enough for the Liberal to win.

One reason people should wait until election day to vote. 

[Hatman 🍁]

I was always under the impression that most people who vote in advance polls are people who are more partisan and certain of their choice and less likely to change their minds in the final week anyways

This is probably true, but I'm sure some people would still change their minds. Plus, you never know- the candidate you would've voted for might eat a baby a few days before election day!

One reason people should wait until election day to vote. 

How very Republican of you.

I'm not suggesting it be law, I'm just suggesting people should vote on E-Day if possible, because you never know what might happen.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've been posting some maps to Twitter. For those of you who don't have Twitter or Facebook, here they are:

PLQ - PQ swing:


CAQ - PQ Swing:


Turnout change (2012-2014):


Linguistic map:

[Hatman 🍁]

Another map, QS change:



Looks like the inverse of the turnout change map. This shows that polls were correct to show the QS as being stagnate in Montreal, despite the focused campaigns in the east end. Really hard to make projections when that kind of thing is going on.

[Hatman 🍁]

Grenier on where the PQ vote went. Swept away in the couronne particularly.

Speaking of Grenier, he only correctly projected 82% of ridings correctly. Me? 84%.  Why do the press take him seriously?

[Hatman 🍁]

QS vote map very interesting. Looks like improvement in the Francophone areas and decrease in the Anglophone areas, suggesting it was possibly a protest party last election for disaffected Liberals (who returned home this election) and a protest party for disaffected PQ's this election.

And a good deal of the CAQ decrease was likewise in the Anglo areas; where they, too, acted as a token viable/non-separatist "protest vote" safe zone in 2012...

CAQ map coming up, but you can see some of that going on in the CAQ-PQ swing map. Funny to see swing to the PQ in some Anglo areas (although, it's the case of not being able to go much lower than they were)

[Hatman 🍁]

QS vote map very interesting. Looks like improvement in the Francophone areas and decrease in the Anglophone areas, suggesting it was possibly a protest party last election for disaffected Liberals (who returned home this election) and a protest party for disaffected PQ's this election.

And a good deal of the CAQ decrease was likewise in the Anglo areas; where they, too, acted as a token viable/non-separatist "protest vote" safe zone in 2012...

That makes a lot of sense, too. I had mis-read the CAQ vs PQ map (was looking at it on my phone on the train this morning) and had got the two parties in the reverse order, which made some sense to me, given the number of seats the CAQ lost in and around Quebec City.

Remember Smid, I use "Atlas colours" Much like Dave Leip's colour reversal, I have reversed the PQ and CAQ colours (Wikipedia agrees with me though). I'd prefer to keep all conservative parties blue and all separatist parties in teal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Remember Smid, I use "Atlas colours" Much like Dave Leip's colour reversal, I have reversed the PQ and CAQ colours (Wikipedia agrees with me though). I'd prefer to keep all conservative parties blue and all separatist parties in teal.

All the cool kids use violet instead of teal.

Using violet won't get you the girls.

[Hatman 🍁]

CAQ vote change:

[Hatman 🍁]

PQ change:

What's happening in the Québec City area? A Péquiste in the city centre, and Liberals around it. I know Lévis was the Canadian Alliance's strongest riding at federal level, so the CAQ vote is not surprising on the south shore.

The central riding is Taschereau, which votes like a typical city centre, for a left of centre party (the PQ). QS also had a strong vote there.

The area south of Quebec City, the Chaudiere-Appalaches region is the most conservative region in the province. It's what the Tories hold most of their seats federally. The Canadian Alliance hasn't existed in a decade

[Hatman 🍁]

Levis(et-le-Chutes-de-la-Chadiere) was the fourth most CA-friendly riding in Quebec in 2000:

Charlesbourg – Jacques-Cartier: 15.41
Portneuf: 15.28
Québec East: 15.21
Lévis-et-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière: 14.51

I don't think it was just the candidate, I think the CA had some appeal to suburban Quebec City residents.

[Hatman 🍁]

The central riding is Taschereau, which votes like a typical city centre, for a left of centre party (the PQ). QS also had a strong vote there.

Sorta like what Ottawa Centre is relative to the (Ontario) ridings surrounding it.

Yes, exactly- though less evident provincially.

[Hatman 🍁]

The central riding is Taschereau, which votes like a typical city centre, for a left of centre party (the PQ). QS also had a strong vote there.

Sorta like what Ottawa Centre is relative to the (Ontario) ridings surrounding it.

Yes, exactly- though less evident provincially.

True in the last election; but still definitely evident provincially compared to what surrounds it, i.e this is the one seat around these parts where they really *try* to be competitive.  It's just that the Yasir Naqvi reelection machine proved to be more than they bargained for...

Wait, you're in Ottawa too?

Ottawa Centre was definitely the pinkest riding in 2011. Naqvi is very popular, and did a good job scaring voters into voting for them (to stop the Tories). Plus, the NDP ran a candidate with no name recognition (but, with strong credentials). This time, they're running a public school trustee, so they should make the race competitive. However, Naqvi's machine will be too much for the NDP to win, I think. Plus, the provincial NDP is too populist for some of the Ottawa Centre types, while the Liberals are very much their cup of tea; led by a progressive Lesbian? Latte liberals love that kinda stuff. Especially if the local candidate is a "progressive" Muslim like Naqvi.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberal change:

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberal vs PQ trend map:

[Hatman 🍁]

Mother tongue:

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW, if you transposed the 2011 federal election results onto the 125 Quebec provincial ridings the results would be:

NDP - 101
Lib - 10
Cons - 8
BQ - 6

The two closest seats would be:

• Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré (BQ by 55 votes over NDP)
• Robert-Baldwin (NDP by 89 votes over Liberal, by 469 votes over Conservative)

If you want to send me the data, I could make a map of it!

[Hatman 🍁]

Here it is Thanks again, Krago!

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout:

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberal %

[Hatman 🍁]

Good timing!

PQ %:

[Hatman 🍁]

CAQ support