Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Hatman 🍁]

Map of the first round. Errors possible. Where there was a tie, I went down the ballot chain until the tie was broken.

[Hatman 🍁]

Seems like Trost relied more on immigrants than rural voters, similar to Patrick Brown in Ontario. It explains Waterloo better than my earlier Mennonite hypothesis.

He cleaned up in ridings with a lot of Chinese people, specifically. Hilariously could not win his own riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Any reason why Leitch won Surrey?

Very bizarre. The areas she won have a high South Asian population, fwiw.

[Hatman 🍁]

Weren't Hindus supporting Trump of his anti-Muslim policies in 2016 a thing? Might've been a similar dynamic up here in Canada.

The reason it's weird is that Leitch had none of Trump's white working class or rural support. It was just her home district and Surrey, afaik.

Although tbh I wouldn't be surprised if a right wing populist campaign in Canada does better among immigrants than WASPs.

That's how Rob Ford won.

[Hatman 🍁]

Seems like Trost relied more on immigrants than rural voters, similar to Patrick Brown in Ontario. It explains Waterloo better than my earlier Mennonite hypothesis.

He cleaned up in ridings with a lot of Chinese people, specifically. Hilariously could not win his own riding.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/karen-lin/conservative-leadership-chinese-communities_b_16335086.html
Looks like Trost had targeted those communities during his campaign.

Interesting read. The results speak for themselves. I bet Leitch also did some campaigning in Surrey and Chong in urban centres. Speaking of which, Chong did well in the more bobo dowtown ridings in Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal (and even Hamilton), which I find very interesting, if not unsurprising.

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess this explains the Trost score in Brossard- Saint-Lambert. Multiethnic with a big chinese community. Before being eliminated Trost was first with 44% to Bernier 30%. Final round result: Bernier 57%   

I wonder how many votes were actually cast in that riding.

You can tell that in some ridings very few votes were cast. Like in Nunavut, it was obvious that only 16 people (or maybe 32) voted. The results were Bernier 50%; Scheer 18.75%; Chong 12.5%; Leitch, O'Toole and Raitt all at 6.25%.

[Hatman 🍁]

Someone asked what riding O'Leary did the best in? It was Repentigny (5.3%). I would be surprised if that represented very many votes though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final round map

[Hatman 🍁]

So Scheer's the Dutch candidate? Wow, thank you Canada!

Actually, Michael Chong was the "Dutch" candidate. That is, he is half Dutch, half Chinese.

[Hatman 🍁]

e.g. Lemieux got over 20% in Provencher.

Metis Conservatives?

Mennonites.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does anybody see much of a class divide in the first round results? Like Raitt did well in the economically depressed areas near her hometown, Chong did well in well-off urban ridings?

A quick look at my map suggests Bernier did better in wealthier ridings than Scheer.

[Hatman 🍁]

Votes cast for leader as a percentage of Conservative votes in the 2015 election, the top five are:

Ottawa Centre - 9.9%
University–Rosedale - 8.3%
Toronto–Danforth - 7.6%
Toronto Centre - 7.5%
Halifax - 7.3%

Chong won all five of those ridings. Lots of cross over support for him.

[Hatman 🍁]

1082 votes in Ottawa Centre? Wowza. Makes sense I guess, a lot of partisans who work for MPs, etc.

[Hatman 🍁]

http://conservative.ca/leadership/en/results

Here is an excellent link from the Conservative Party of Canada for the leadership voting.

You can check the national vote, each province, each constituency, each ballot.

Gee, thanks. This exact link was posted the day of their election.