Slovakia gay marriage/adoption/sex education referendum - Feb. 7, 2015

[politicus]

From what I understand, the Slovak constitution already bans same-sex marriage.

Does anyone know if this is a referendum that would change the constitution if a majority votes "No" and has 50%+ turnout, or not ?

If not, what's the point of asking Question 1 (SSM), if there's already a ban ?

They could just ask Q2 and Q3.

It may be that a no vote would make the government reverse the constitution - to allow same-sex marriage. The question seems to be slanted towards a positive response though...

Alliance for Family wants to make it as hard as possible to revert the constitutional ban on same sex marriage. The current ban was approved as part of a horse trade. The ruling SDs in Smer wanted some judicial reforms and they got them through by agreeing to the gay marriage ban. Prime Minister Robert Fico doesn't seem to give a damn about this issue, but they can not be sure a future Smer leader would not reverse the party's position. Slovak opinion on gay rights has turned a lot more liberal in recent years, so its a safeguard against future attacks on the ban. You only need a 3/5 majority in Parliament to amend the Constitution (=90 seats, Smer got 83 now), but it would be politically very risky to do so by overruling a referendum. So if they get the ban confirmed in a referendum they are de facto guaranteed that it can only be changed by another referendum.

So the context with a dominant party that is on the left and not "naturally" SoCon is important, as is the increasing support for some rights to gay couples (joint property ownership, bereavement leave, medical info on partner and all the other soft stuff).

[politicus]

Slovak opinion on gay rights has turned a lot more liberal in recent years

By "a lot more liberal" you mean going from 86% opposition in a 2006 poll to ca. 80% in the 2014 poll I posted above ?

Gay rights is about more than gay marriage and the numbers on the "soft stuff" has moved a lot. Seen from a SoCon POV the SoLibs seem to be winning the long game and they react against that.

[politicus]

At bit of background:

http://visegradrevue.eu/?p=3215

[politicus]

At bit of background:

http://visegradrevue.eu/?p=3215

I wonder if the referendum results will be anywhere close to the Mississippi results (86%) ...

Considering the usual underpolling. So, when the poll says 80% opposed, could it be in fact 86% ?

What poll?

[politicus]

So I'm gone for a few days and trying to settle in a new country, and you domkops start behaving like 2 year olds? Thanks!

I will probably clean up this mess, without infraction points.

EDIT: All cleaned up. You domkops do this again and I'm handing out infraction points.

A bit weird to leave Al's train post (and then delete Tender's trolley lady ).

[politicus]

It was quite amusing!

Not really.

[politicus]

The gay community in Slovakia advocates a boycot of the referendum, which needs 50% turnout to be valid. Observers find it unlikely that 50% of Slovaks will participate, so the expected win will only be a moral victory for Coalition of Families.

All Slovak TV stations have declined to bring a Coalition of Families commercial with an adopted child being handed over to a creepy looking gay couple by his foster parents and asking "where is mum?", which has raised some controversy. It was rejected because of the implied paedophilia.

http://www.thedaily.sk/anti-gay-referendum-stirring-sentiment/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RcmF68WUtE

[politicus]

The general attitude among ordinary  Slovaks regarding this vote seems to be that it is a waste of money initiated by some crazy fundis over an issue nobody cares about.

Given that Slovakia normally has very low turnout in referendums it seems almost certain to fall far below the 50%. Only one referendum has ever met the quorum in Slovak history: The 2003 vote on EU membership and even that only got a turnout of 51.5%.

In 2010 the libertarian Freedom and Solidarity collected enough signatures to get six constitutional measures on the ballot (abolition of the TV licence, limiting parliamentary immunity, lower number of MPs from 150 to 100, setting a maximum price for limousines used by the government at €40,000, introducing electronic voting via the internet, changing the Press Code by removing politicians' automatic right of reply) and that only attracted 22.8% with 70-95% supporting each proposal.

I think this one will attract a similar crowd. It is "stuff some people care a lot about, but most don't" promoted by a movement/party with some support, but seen as a bit nutty by the majority.

[politicus]

Representatives of the LGBT community in Slovakia have declined to participate in discussions with Alliance for Family in TA3 and STV as planned. According to a joint statement of five NGOs' the Alliance of Family is campaigning in a way that in their opinion precludes a decent discussion "as it is limited to repeating widely proven lies and half-truths." According to Martin Mack of Initiative Otherness it is "useless to discuss with people using arguments and opinions that experts have repeatedly explained and refuted."

The NGOs that oppose the proposals (incl. Amnesty) have declined to use money on public campaigning and rely exclusively on using social media. It seems they are convinced turnout will be below 50% - almost certainly with good reason.

[politicus]

Well, here's my prediction:

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Official results tomorrow here:

http://volbysr.sk/en/index.html

Given that the opponents advocate a boycot I think the Yes percentage will be much higher (85-90%+) and the turnout much lower (around 25%). 38% would be quite a high turnout for a Slovakian referendum.

[politicus]

Given that the opponents advocate a boycott I think the Yes percentage will be much higher (85-90%+) and the turnout much lower (around 25%). 38% would be quite a high turnout for a Slovakian referendum.

Did they really call for a boycott of the referendum, or did they just boycott the debates like you posted ? I didn't follow this lately ...

Anyway, turnout could be anywhere between 20-40% - depending on the motivation of the homophobic right-wingers.

Yes. Reply 27 (and partly 28) deals with this.

There aren't that many homophobic right wingers in Slovakia. Certainly not 40% of voters. You need Smer voters to turn up for that and they seem to be in the don't care group.

[politicus]

OK, thanks for the numbers.

If we take the poll at face value and look just at turnout and the first question, it means the Yes share is 85 per cent overall, 92 per cent among voters and, therefore, about 81 per cent among non-voters.

The same maths suggest fewer than 40 per cent of Yes supporters plan to vote, while fewer than 20 per cent of No supporters will turn out. Even if there were no tactical abstention, it wouldn't reach half of voters.

There really is no point for No supporters to vote. The issue here is if turnout breaks 30%, which gives the result some legitimacy, or goes lower. This is purely a turnout thing and the Yes/No distribution is irrelevant. Below 30% makes the Alliance for Family look like fools, above 40% makes it possible for them to claim a moral victory, 30-40% is "a tie".

[politicus]

Pope Francis on the issue:

http://spectator.sme.sk/c/20053385/pope-francis-encourages-slovaks-to-protect-families.html

"encouraging everybody to continue the fight for the defence of the family, the life-giving unit of society"

The Church has nvvested uite a lot of prestige in this and a low turnout would be a significant defeat for them. The typical yes voter is a female village-dweller, the backbone of the Catholic church.

[politicus]

Slovak LGBT group Queer Leaders estimates 32% to 38% turnout.

[politicus]

President Andrej Kiska: "I feel sadness and disillusionment for what this referendum has brought this country"

[politicus]

Pics:

http://www.sme.sk/c/7633544/pozrite-si-na-fotografiach-sme-ako-prebieha-referendum.html?ref=trz

Old people have been overrepresented among voters - no surprise.

[politicus]

Preliminary results expected from around 10.30 onwards, so 35 min to go.

Some rural places have been counting for 20 minutes already - finishing early due to low interest.

[politicus]

Martin Poliačik from the Slovak Referendum Commission: "I think that participation is even lower than expected".

Well, give us some numbers Martin...

[politicus]

He expected a low turnout of 35%. Now he suspects it will even lower "perhaps 30%".

[politicus]

Alliance for Family spokesperson Anton Chromík just thanked their volunteers saying "the adventure has been amazing".

Not sure the Slovak taxpayers would agree.

[politicus]

Q1: 93,4% Yes 5,3% No
Q2: 91,2% Yes 6,7% No
Q3: 88,8% Yes 8,8% No

With 12,5% counted. Turnout 16,7% so far.

[politicus]

More than a third counted and still less than 19% turnout.

[politicus]

Half counted. 19.2% turnout.

[politicus]

At 50.5% counted

Q1: 94,1% Yes 4,6% No
Q2: 92,1% Yes 6,0% No
Q3: 89,6% Yes 8,0% No

Turnout 19,3% so far.

[politicus]

19,95% turnout at 64,2% counted.

Q1: 94,2%
Q2: 92,1%
Q3: 89,8%