The absentee/early vote thread

[dspNY]

So as of 5:00 the total in NC on the first day of Early Voting is 137,000 votes down from 167,000 on the first day in 2012. But we are still 12 minutes away from poll closings.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NCSBE/status/789225125732376576

Keep in mind that number might spike in the last hour as people try to vote after work. We'll see what the final total is

[dspNY]

Georgia early vote demographics (10/20)

White: 270,554 (62.5%)
African-American: 122,660 (28.4%)
Hispanic: 4,124 (1.0%)
Other: 7,058 (1.6%)
Unknown: 28,217 (6.5%)

[dspNY]

http://www.wpr.org/early-voting-strong-wisconsins-most-democratic-counties

MADISON — About 30 percent of all absentee ballots cast in Wisconsin so far have come from the state’s most heavily Democratic counties.

The latest data posted on the Wisconsin Elections Commission website shows ballots cast in Milwaukee and Dane counties are far outpacing those that have come from the conservative suburban counties of Washington, Waukesha and Ozaukee.

As of Wednesday, there were just over 55,000 ballots returned in Dane and Milwaukee counties compared with about 21,700 in the co-called WOW counties. About 183,700 were cast statewide.

Dane and Milwaukee Counties represented 26% of the overall Wisconsin vote in 2012 and currently represent 30% of the early vote. The WOW counties represented 12.3% of the Wisconsin vote in 2012 and currently represent 11.8% of the early vote. Not a severe drop off for the republicans but a nice rise for the democrats

[dspNY]

Florida VBM stats, 10/21

Ballots still outstanding:

DEM: 823,824
GOP: 818,279
IND: 412,207
Other: 50,471

Ballots cast:

GOP: 416,860
DEM: 399,508
IND: 154,713
Other: 26,215

Florida will pass the million mark in votes cast tomorrow (they're at 997K now)

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot stats 10/21

Ballots requested:

DEM: 190,229
GOP: 155,417
IND: 93,140
Other: 1,211

Dems have gained almost 3,000 on the GOP since yesterday.

Ballots cast:

DEM: 114,737
GOP: 75,782
IND: 44,732
Other: 598

Dems have gained almost 700 since yesterday and now lead by about 39K. I think the magic # for Clinton is a 50K margin going into election day to win

[dspNY]

My guess is that the true believers are coming out for Trump with in person voting, but it should revert to traditional trends of Democrats dominating early voting. TargetSmart's #s look weird/outdated for North Carolina, unless they think white Dems are Republicans this year...

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/789477974353518592
Registered Republicans were only 24% of 1st day in person voters.

That's probably worse for them than 2012, and we still have Souls to the Polls to expand the advantage. In Iowa, the best analyst is Pat Rynard (the Iowa Starting Line guy). He recently posted that the Democrats are recovering their position and starting to impose their will in the ground game after falling behind early.

[dspNY]

Nevada is unsettling.

The Dems built an 89K voter registration edge in the state. In person early voting starts tomorrow. I think we'll be OK in Nevada

[dspNY]

A few other states and CDs

Colorado ballots cast

DEM: 22,605 (43.9%)
GOP: 15,680 (30.5%)
IND: 12,410 (24.1%)
Other: 770 (1.5%)

Maine-2 ballots cast

DEM: 10,932 (46.0%)
GOP: 6,490 (27.3%)
IND: 5,631 (23.7%)
Other: 725 (3.0%)

These numbers indicate that Clinton has recovered well in Maine-2 and is likely being under-polled there.

Nebraska (statewide)

GOP: 65,823 (43.5%)
DEM: 61,611 (40.7%)
IND: 23,117 (15.3%)
Other: 880 (0.6%)

The Nebraska early vote numbers indicate that Clinton is doing very well in Nebraska-2

[dspNY]

Florida VBM stats (10/22)

Ballots requested/still outstanding:

DEM: 790,749
GOP: 780,168
IND: 402,220
Other: 48,620

Ballots cast:

GOP: 463,959 (41.8%)
DEM: 443,502 (40.0%)
IND: 172,753 (15.6%)
Other: 28,901 (2.6%)

Overall advantage for the GOP in ballots cast is now 20,457. Overall advantage for the GOP in ballots cast + ballots requested is down to a four digit margin: 9,876. However, as the number of ballots requested turn into votes, the actual vote count becomes more important

[dspNY]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/789824761576599552

North Carolina Early Vote and Absentee Vote is 6% less black than 2012.

Far fewer polling places open in African-American neighborhoods this time than last time. That will pick up as more polling places open

[dspNY]

reps ahead by about 5% in florida as of today.

They were ahead by 5.5% at this time in 2012 in VBM. They are ahead by 1.8% now. Obama won FL by 0.8%. If anything, that proves the polling showing Clinton +4 because the early vote in person will create the winning margin for her

[dspNY]

Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz  31m31 minutes ago
Early vote returns in FLORIDA so far

• Democrats:  305,700 in 2016 (111,471 in 2008)
• Republicans: 314,301 in 2016 (176,855 in 2008)

I'm more curious about 2012

GOP was up by about 5.5 points at this time in 2012 in VBM

[dspNY]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789901835066716160



Guilford: Had 21,560 in-person votes on first two days of early voting in 2012; 3,295 in 2016 (-85%). Reduced polling places from 16 to 1

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789902702889140224

Mecklenburg (Charlotte) still had almost the exact same turnout as 2012 despite 12 fewer polling places. That's astonishing and bodes well

[dspNY]

before anyone notices it....dspNY is right but the first pic misstated the numbers of polling places. i updated the pic.

Yeah. Charlotte had 22 polling places at the start of early voting 4 years ago and they are down to 10, but with virtually the same turnout

[dspNY]

Ralston:

Clark County turnout record for the first day of early voting was 33,000 in 2012. They are likely to beat that this time around. Most likely bad news for Trump, but we'll have to see the party breakdown

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/789966976957284352

[dspNY]

Wisconsin absentee ballot data 10/21

Dane and Milwaukee Counties comprise 29% of the overall absentee ballots. They comprised 26% of the overall Wisconsin vote in 2012. These are the heavy Dem counties.

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties (WOW counties) comprise 12.3% of the overall absentee ballots. They comprised 12.3% of the overall Wisconsin vote in 2012. These are the heavy GOP counties.

[dspNY]

Ralston:

Clark County turnout record for the first day of early voting was 33,000 in 2012. They are likely to beat that this time around. Most likely bad news for Trump, but we'll have to see the party breakdown

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/789966976957284352

When will we see the party breakdown?

Voting continues until 8 PM Pacific so we won't see it until very late tonight, possibly tomorrow in the East

[dspNY]

Ralston:

Day 1 of early voting in Clark County breaks the 2012 record. As of 6 PM, 37,138 people have voted. The record was 33,000

[dspNY]

Ralston: Dems with 1,800 voter advantage on the first day of early voting in Washoe (the swing county in NV). About 4800 Dems to 3000 Repubs

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790009366321639424

[dspNY]

drip drip drip

gop turnout down in swing country with republican reg. edge in NV


More democrats than republicans voted today in @washoecounty. Dems=4,809. Reps=3,078
https://twitter.com/Colinlygren/status/790006894307848192


9,429 people voted today in @washoecounty. That's just 18 more people than the first day of early voting in the 2012 General Election (9411)
https://twitter.com/Colinlygren/status/790005513371185156

That indicates Republican disillusionment in NV, at least in the early going. Washoe is a fast-growing county with a slight GOP voter registration edge. Clark County's 1st day turnout will be much larger than 2012, even with the population growth taken into account

[dspNY]

Florida VBM 10/23 (last day before in-person early voting begins)

Ballots outstanding/remaining

DEM: 767,354
GOP: 751,791
IND: 394,468
Other: 46,836

Ballots cast

GOP: 496,040 (41.7%)
DEM: 476,292 (40.1%)
IND: 185,369 (15.6%)
Other: 31,039 (2.6%)

The GOP leads by 19,748, with one more county needing to update (Volusia)

Combined, the Republicans lead by 4,185 ballots out of 3.15 million ballots sent/cast right before in-person early voting begins

[dspNY]

Georgia early vote demographics (10/20)

White: 270,554 (62.5%)
African-American: 122,660 (28.4%)
Hispanic: 4,124 (1.0%)
Other: 7,058 (1.6%)
Unknown: 28,217 (6.5%)

Michael hasn't tweeted yet, but I checked his spreadsheet and it's a bit concerning... Since 10/20, whites are down 0.1%, blacks down 1.2%, other up 0.4%, unknown up 0.8%.

White: 403,067 - 62.4%
Black: 175,732   - 27.2%
Hispanic: 6,752   - 1%
Other: 12,896 - 2%
Unknown: 47,264 - 7.3%

Total: 645,711

I wouldn't be too concerned as of yet.  IIRC Griffin said that many people who were registered under unknown were African Americans who were not able to or haven't changed the designation.  I could be remembering wrong though, so just better ask him.

http://www.peachpundit.com/2014/10/30/examination-voting-history-shows-changing-demographics-affect-2014-elections/#comment-392573
Mark Rountree (Landmark pollster) has said his research shows unknown to be 2/3 minority. Still, odd that weekend voting and blacks declined. Maybe expanded early voting 10/29 will flip the numbers.

So the real demographic numbers are something like 64% white, 30% African-American, and 5% other

[dspNY]

Well I downloaded the Georgia absentee files and learned that Clayton, Bibb, Richmond, Rockdale, etc. (heavily Black/Obama counties) don't have weekend voting until October 29, so that definitely explains a lot...

Voter suppression

Were they open for the entire early voting window in 2012? That's the question for comparison purposes. We have clear data showing NC's attempt to suppress the African-American vote

[dspNY]

daniel a. smith
‏@electionsmith

Absentee ballots cast in 2012 GE at this time, 80% by Whites, 9% by Hispanics, 8% by blacks.
Thru 10/22/2016, the %s are:

76% W
12% H
8% B

That number is for Florida so it indicates an improvement for Dems over 2012. Interesting to see how the early in-person vote breaks out

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot stats, 10/24

Ballots requested:

DEM: 201,034
GOP: 162,170
IND: 100,109
Other: 1,306

Ballots cast:

DEM: 134,487
GOP: 94,519
IND: 56,032
Other: 746

Iowa Dems are now 39K ahead on ballot requests, an improvement of 3500 over the weekend, and are up 40K in ballots cast, up about 1500 from last Friday. Clinton has a long way to go to reach a 50K lead but she is slowly getting out of trouble here