Kerrey could pull a surprise here. Not than many watch the debates, but he is running very smart ads. He stresses his opponent is a millionaire rancher who gave herself tax breaks. He stresses his military experience and even (falsely) states this is the first ever Presidential election where neither major party candidate had military service (think Jefferson vs Adams ro Wilson vs Hughes for just two).
Kerrey will carry CD 2 and should carry Lincoln. The rest of the state will be hers. He'll need to carry CD-2 by 25,000 and hold CD-1 fairly close. Otherwise, she'll win. My guess right now would be 53%R, 47%D.
Wow! You give me some hope.
Maybe he's lying about this being the first election where candidates for President don't have military service, but it's true that it the first where neither the presidential candidates nor the VP candidates have.