A year from today, who'll already have announced, one way or the other?

[Mr. Morden]

I believe election day 2014 comes on Nov. 4.  So a year from today, we might already have a couple of potential candidates declaring whether they will or will not run for president in the 2016 cycle.  In 2006, for example, Vilsack launched his 2008 campaign on November 9.  Gravel launched his campaign earlier in the year, Warner ruled himself out of contention in October 2006.

The 2012 cycle was slower to develop, but what about this time?  What will be the state of play in November 2014?

[Flake]

Everyone is going to wait for Hillary.

[Mr. Morden]

Everyone is going to wait for Hillary.

Santorum is going to wait for Clinton?  I don't think so.

[morgieb]

Santorum will probably announce an exploratory committee. Ditto O'Malley.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think we could get somebody in the next 6-9 months, probably sometime next Summer.  Someone who doesn't have a race to worry about in 2014 or 2015.  It will likely be someone who is in it for the fun of it, but we could get as high as a second-tier candidate like Santorum or possibly Rubio.  I think Christie and Clinton will wait until early 2015 if Clinton even runs, which I'm not sold that she is.

[Mr. Morden]

On the GOP side, those potential candidates who don't have a day job, like Bolton, Carson, and Santorum, will probably announce first.  Then you'll get folks currently in office, like Jindal and Rubio.  Actually, the question of which Floridian ends up running (Bush or Rubio) and which Wisconsinite ends up running (Ryan or Walker) could complicate the timing of those announcements.  Though maybe whichever one ends up deferring will announce early on that they're staying out.  If, say, Bush decides that there's no clear path for him to the presidency, then I could potentially see him making a relatively early announcement that he's out, in order to clear the path for Rubio.

Walker, assuming that he's reelected, which of course isn't a certainty, will wait for Ryan to decide, and even then could end up announcing rather late, should he decide he wants to run.  It's bad form to win reelection, and then set up a presidential exploratory committee the following week.  And harder for governors to do that than members of Congress, since it's easier to be an absentee congressman than an absentee governor.

On the Dem. side, everyone will wait for Clinton.  Though she'll be strongly encouraged to give some sort of preliminary indication of her intentions immediately after the midterms.

[barfbag]

Why are you guys so obsessed with 2016?

[Mr. Morden]

Why are you guys so obsessed with 2016?

Ummm.....you've made 800 posts on the 2016 board in the last five months.  That's more than 5 posts a day.  Why are *you* so obsessed with 2016?

[badgate]

Do exploratory committees count? That might be easier/more fun since Mid-Nov 2014 is still very early

[Mr. Morden]

Do exploratory committees count? That might be easier/more fun since Mid-Nov 2014 is still very early

Yes, exploratory committees count.

[ShadowRocket]

On the GOP side, I think both Santorum and Perry will announce before the end of next year. I don't see any reason for them to wait and they may as well maximize the media attention before the likes of Christie, Paul, etc. jump in. Maybe Jindal as well since his term will start to wind down.

For the Dems, Hillary will probably start to say that she is at least giving another run serious consideration. Schweitzer, O'Malley, and Dean may jump in at that point for similar reasons as Santorum/Perry.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul is in a weird spot, since he can't legally run for both president and senate at the same time (and the Kentucky presidential and senate primaries are on the same day).  So the timing of his announcement, one way or the other, will involve addressing that problem in whatever way he can.

[Likely Voter]

The only people I could see running are people who aren't holding any public office so  maybe Santorum and/or Schweitzer. Even though Hillary isn't in office, I don't think she will announce anything officially until Spring or Summer 2015.

In the unlikely event that Hillary decides not to run she may announce in late 2014 or early 2015 to let go of her grip on the money and talent.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm entirely with Morden on timing. White-noisers like Perry and Santorum are the only ones I could see announcing in late 2014. As for Cheesemen, Ryan will have to decide on W&M before the midterms, so we'll know his decision from that.

[MATTROSE94]

Republicans:
Rick Santorum
John Bolton
Ben Carson
Rick Perry
Jon Huntsman
Jack Fellure
Peter King
Josue Larose
Grady Warren

Democrats:
Howard Dean
Martin O'Malley
Jeff Boss
Randall Terry
John Wolfe Jr.
Keith Russell Judd
Lyndon LaRouche (assuming he is still alive by 2014)

None of the major candidates for either side will begin announcing until early or mid 2015. Few major Democrats will announce until Hillary Clinton announces if she is going to run or not. Furthermore, the outcome of the 2014 midterms might lead to different candidates running.

[NewYorkExpress]

Republicans

Rick Perry
Peter King
Jon Huntsman
and Perennial candidates

Democrats
Martin O'Malley
Bill De Blasio
Perennial Candidates

[whanztastic]

Republicans

Rick Perry
Peter King
Jon Huntsman
and Perennial candidates

Democrats
Martin O'Malley
Bill De Blasio
Perennial Candidates

Uh, What?

[pbrower2a]

Santorum. Christie, Cruz. J. Bush. Harold Stassen. (why should death stop him?)

Stassen might be the best of the lot.

[The Mikado]

No serious candidate is going to announce before New Years, 2015.  Even on the GOP side.  Most of the candidates won't hop in until around Valentine's Day, 2015.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Could HIllary be dissuaded to run if Democrats face heavy losses next year?
Also, Walker is probably focusing on his reelection first.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Could HIllary be dissuaded to run if Democrats face heavy losses next year?
Also, Walker is probably focusing on his reelection first.

Anyone?

[BaconBacon96]

Could HIllary be dissuaded to run if Democrats face heavy losses next year?
Also, Walker is probably focusing on his reelection first.

Anyone?

Your right about Walker, but I doubt that will factor into Clinton's decision.

[eric82oslo]

I'm starting to feel that Hillary could announce as early as during the summer this year. Mostly in order to boost Democrats' chances in the 2014 elections, to be able to play a gamechanger role in many individual statewide (or countywide) races (much like her husband did in reelecting Obama), to bolster her 2016 warchest so much that even the savyest Republican candidate will find it hard to match up (or even come close) and finally in order to make sure that as few challengers as possible will join in the same primary ring, possibly - if she's ultra lucky - none at all. The Hillary 2016 campaign will be one like we've possibly never seen before. George W. Bush 2000 came close, but he wasn't nearly as universally popular as Hillary is today and he had a really formidable challenger in John McCain. Anyone who thinks Joe Biden could be an equally formidable challenger really doesn't know their politics well. The only Democrat who could reach McCain levels would be Elizabeth Warren, but she's already declared a million times that she's definitely not gonna run. Frankly, it looks like a walk-over already. And I think that walk-over includes an early announcement, for practical and political reasons. It could come during the quieter parts of summer or it could come during early fall. I think she would be wise to choose the quieter political season, to make sure she doesn't steal too much attention from other Democrats who'll be running campaigns in the fall.

She's already at a record high 68% support among likely Democratic primary voters. Everyone else has 12% or less. There's just no chance she's not gonna run. The only thing that could be stopping her at this point would be a fatal incidence like hospitalization or serious health problems.