Predict a 1964 Landslide Scenario

[avashi]

What is the best scenario of there being a 1964 style electoral blowout this year? I would consider an election a Johnson-Humphrey landslide if a candidate breaks the 450 electoral votes barrier. I know this is almost impossible considering the extreme polarization of the country. The fact that the Clinton campaign wasn't able to get over 400 electoral votes in 1992 or 1996 with a booming economy is evidence that the polarization process began as early as the early 1990s. I think the historic realigning House of Representatives election of 1994 is one of the earliest indications.

Also, how long do you think this polarization will last before a potential switch back to the years when elections weren't decided by less than six to eight swing states and landslides were a lot more common?

Post your maps and answer away!   

[Wisconsin+17]

see my electoral prediction!

[Sir Mohamed]

That scenario (though unlikely) would be Drumpf’s ultimate Waterloo:

✓ Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX): 405 EVs.; 54.7%
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY)/Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA): 133 EVs.; 42.2%
Former Governor Gary E. Johnson (L-NM)/Former Governor William Weld (L-MA): 0 Evs.; 2.8%

[CatoMinor]

With a Trump collapse I could see this being a realistic Clinton over 450 map.

[Sir Mohamed]

ND, SD and TX won't flip. The overall PV has to be 60% in such a Scenario, and that's not gonna happen. Even not with Drumpf as GOP nominee.

[Mallow]

The national margin would have to be around 22%. Clinton would get all states except AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, NE, ND, OK, SD, TN, WV, and WY. AK, UT, and MS would all have JUST switched, and ND, SD, and ID would be just about to switch.

(People forget that if Mormons make such a difference in UT, they will make a notable difference in ID, too. And Idaho has a reasonably high proportion of Mexican-heritage Hispanics, as well.)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

With a Trump collapse I could see this being a realistic Clinton over 450 map.

This one, or flip UT and MS.  SC and KS are within 5% as well.

I'd say this is the result of the following:

1. The GOP convention is a total disaster.
2. The Dem convention is a love-fest and Bernie Sanders gives a rousing speech backing Hillary
3. Successful debunking of Clinton "scandals" in eyes of public
4. Clinton destroys Trump in debates, Trump makes a fool of himself
5. Sustained, fantastic economic news and confidence
6. Religious conservatives abandon Trump en masse and endorse Clinton
7. Trump makes some terrible gaffes close to the election
8. Bernie's campaign organizes massive, 50-state GOTV for Clinton on social media.

Basically, everything that can go wrong for Trump, does go wrong for Trump.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Clinton 55% (458) - Trump 35% (80) - 3rd Party 10%

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

fmr. sen./s.o.s. h.r. clinton (d·ny) / rep. xavier becerra (d·ca) – 54% p.v., 456 e.v.
the stubby-fingered rapist (r·ny) / fmr. speaker newt gingrich (r·ga) – 27% p.v., 76 e.v.
fmr. gov. mitt romney (r·ma) / sen. ben sasse (r·ne) – 15% p.v., 6 e.v.
fmr. gov. gary johnson (r/l·nm) / fmr. gov. bill weld (r/l·ma) – 3% p.v., 0 e.v.
others – 1% p.v., 0 e.v.

[President Johnson]

Businessman Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Senator Bob Corker (R-TN): 360 EV. (54.40%)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Al Franken (D-MN): 178 EV. (45.07%)

[Ronnie]

see my electoral prediction!

[DS0816]

What is the best scenario of there being a 1964 style electoral blowout this year? I would consider an election a Johnson-Humphrey landslide if a candidate breaks the 450 electoral votes barrier. I know this is almost impossible considering the extreme polarization of the country. The fact that the Clinton campaign wasn't able to get over 400 electoral votes in 1992 or 1996 with a booming economy is evidence that the polarization process began as early as the early 1990s. I think the historic realigning House of Representatives election of 1994 is one of the earliest indications.

Also, how long do you think this polarization will last before a potential switch back to the years when elections weren't decided by less than six to eight swing states and landslides were a lot more common?

Post your maps and answer away!   

Although I won’t post a map, I would suggest an outcome of six states for Donald Trump which make him look like a combination of Adlai Stevenson and Barrr Goldwater.

I would give Trump these six states: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia. (Between them are 45 electoral votes.)

It would be cool to see a Democrat carry Alabama and Mississippi while having carried the party’s base state of Vermont. (That has not yet happened. I might have to trade them for Kentucky and Tennessee.)

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Senator Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III (R-AL) - 440 EV (58.5%) ✓
Former SoS Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Elizabeth 'Pocahontas' Warren (D-MA) - 98 EV (39.6%)

[DS0816]

clash,

Give New Mexico to Trump/Beauregard.

[Senator Spark]

TRUMP Slide

Businessman Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA): 456 EV. (61.45%)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MN): 78 EV. (38.03%)
Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)- 4 EVs. (0.52%)

Hill Slide:

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MN): 505 EV. (63%)
Businessman Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA): 33
EV. (24.43%)
Former Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)/William Weld (R-MA)- 0 EVs. (13.0%)

[Indy Texas]

Mormons trend sharply Democratic. Trump loses Great Plains voters as Clinton warns his protectionist threats would hurt agricultural exports and during a debate, Trump proves to be shockingly ignorant about how farm subsidies work. Hispanic voters descend on the polls like the Flight of the Valkyries, enabling a Democratic sweep in the Southwest that knocks John McCain out of office and causes Texas to go to the Democrats for the first time in 40 years.

Clinton / Kaine (D) - 446 EV
Trump / Sessions (R) - 91 EV
Johnson / Weld (L) - 1 EV cast by a faithless elector from Idaho

[Sir Mohamed]

Businessman Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Senator Bob Corker (R-TN): 360 EV. (54.40%)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Al Franken (D-MN): 178 EV. (45.07%)

Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Senator Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III (R-AL) - 440 EV (58.5%) ✓
Former SoS Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Elizabeth 'Pocahontas' Warren (D-MA) - 98 EV (39.6%)

LOL!

[Kingpoleon]

414: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton/Former Senator Mark Begich - 54.0%
124: Businessman Donald Trump/Senator Ted Cruz - 40.3%

Gary Johnson/William Weld - 4.5%
Jill Stein/Luis Rodriguez - 1.0%
Others - 0.2%