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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: February 15, 2012, 11:36:40 AM »

do you think leads the polls in the following states ?

AZ
WA
AK
ID
ND
OK
VT
WY
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NVGonzalez
antwnzrr
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« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2012, 04:41:02 PM »

AZ Toss up
WA Barely lean Romney
AK Toss up. Paul has a minor shot here
ID Likely Romney
ND Toss up
OK Likely Santorum
VT Lean Romney
WY Lean Santorum
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2012, 04:56:31 PM »
« Edited: February 15, 2012, 04:58:40 PM by Lief »

AZ = Romney narrowly
WA = Santorum (Paul in second)
AK = Santorum/Paul tie
ID = Romney landslide
ND = Santorum
OK = Santorum (Gingrich in second)
VT = Romney (Paul in second)
WY = Santorum
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GLPman
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« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2012, 07:12:56 PM »

AZ - tossup
WA - lean Romney
AK - tossup
ID - Romney
ND - tossup
OK - Santorum
VT - Romney
WY - Santorum
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Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
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United States


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« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2012, 07:29:47 PM »

AZ - Romney, narrowly
WA - Santorum
AK - Paul? Either him or Santorum.
ID - Romney
ND - Santorum, Paul second
OK - Santorum
WY - Santorum, Paul second
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
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Canada
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« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2012, 07:52:17 PM »

AZ - Romney
WA - Santorum
AK - Santorum
ID - Romney
ND - Santorum
OK - Santorum
VT - Romney
WY - Santorum
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2012, 03:08:08 AM »

AZ = Romney narrowly
WA = Santorum (Paul in second)
AK = Santorum/Paul tie
ID = Romney landslide
ND = Santorum
OK = Santorum (Gingrich in second)
VT = Romney (Paul in second)
WY = Santorum

Agreed on all points, except perhaps Wyoming.  The Wyoming county conventions aren't real caucuses.  They're just the party leadership in each county getting together to pick delegates.  See the 2008 results for example, when they went for Romney (with a few votes thrown at Thompson and Hunter too, since they actually decided to visit the state for a campaign event):

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=56&f=1&off=0&elect=2

So really, it's whoever the party leadership in the state is supporting.  Which might be Romney again, but I'm not sure.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2012, 03:52:10 AM »


AZ  Romney
WA Romney/Paul
AK  Paul/Romney
ID  Romney
ND Santorum/Paul
OK Santorum
VT  Romney/Paul
WY  Romney/Paul
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20RP12
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« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2012, 09:40:13 AM »

AZ - Romney
WA - Romney
AK - Paul
ID - Romney
ND - Paul(?)
OK - Santorum
VT - Romney
WY - Santorum
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
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United States


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« Reply #9 on: February 16, 2012, 10:52:06 AM »

AZ - Romney
WA - Impossible to predict, though I imagine Paul will win the caucus. if narrowly
AK - Tossup between Santorum and Gingrich
ID - Tossup between Santorum and Paul
ND - I have no clue
OK - Santorum
VT - Paul
WY - No idea
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #10 on: February 16, 2012, 12:23:37 PM »

Guys, contrary to popular belief, the Washington-state GOP is not moderate and is instead one of the more conservative in the country. I'd be very surprised if Romney does well in its caucus.
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