Real election results that would have seemed absurd as predictions

[Oldiesfreak1854]

George W. Bush beating Ann Richards for governor of Texas in 1994.  And a losing Republican candidate for Michigan governor carrying Genesee County in 1960:

FTR, that was Paul Bagwell.  Nixon also carried Genesee County that year, which also would have seemed absurd as a prediction:


These maps really creep me out because it just makes no sense for heavily unionized Genesee County to vote for a losing GOP candidate for both president and Michigan governor, even as Macomb County was voting overwhelmingly Dem.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

A huge portion of this map (MI Governor 1978) probably would have seemed absurd too:

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Hamilton County OH being more Democratic than the national average. Who would have EVER thought that would happen?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

George W. Bush beating Ann Richards for governor of Texas in 1994.  And a losing Republican candidate for Michigan governor carrying Genesee County in 1960:

FTR, that was Paul Bagwell.  Nixon also carried Genesee County that year, which also would have seemed absurd as a prediction:


These maps really creep me out because it just makes no sense for heavily unionized Genesee County to vote for a losing GOP candidate for both president and Michigan governor, even as Macomb County was voting overwhelmingly Dem.

The Republicans weren't anti-union in 1960 and with their rich contracts, I imagine many of the UAW members voted as befitted their economic interests.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

George W. Bush beating Ann Richards for governor of Texas in 1994.  And a losing Republican candidate for Michigan governor carrying Genesee County in 1960:

FTR, that was Paul Bagwell.  Nixon also carried Genesee County that year, which also would have seemed absurd as a prediction:


These maps really creep me out because it just makes no sense for heavily unionized Genesee County to vote for a losing GOP candidate for both president and Michigan governor, even as Macomb County was voting overwhelmingly Dem.

The Republicans weren't anti-union in 1960 and with their rich contracts, I imagine many of the UAW members voted as befitted their economic interests.

First, Republicans were never anti-union.  I'm a Republican and I'm not necessarily anti-union.  And second, in at least the last two governors' races before that, and in the next one, Genesee County voted for the Democrat.  It seemed to be pretty strong Dem leaning in presidential elections as well, aside from the GOP landsldes (Ike, Nixon '72, and Reagan).  Also, Macomb County, where the UAW had major clout, leaned Dem and voted over 60% for Kennedy and Swainson (the Dem nominee for governor) in 1960.  Macomh Couny was als one of only a few Michigan counties to vote for Stevenson in 1956.  What happened in Genesee County in 1960 that caused it to vote for both a losing GOP presidential and a losing gubernatorial candidate?

[Mr. Morden]

1991, just after the Gulf War ends, and Bush has ~90% job approval ratings: Bush will get the lowest %age of the popular vote of any incumbent president since William Howard Taft.

1992, a few weeks before the Wisconsin Senate primary: Russ Feingold will win the Democratic nomination for Senate with 70% of the vote.

1992, in the wake of Clinton's victory: The Republicans will win control of both houses of Congress in 1994.

September 1998, when the Starr Report was released: In the '98 midtersm, there'll be a net change of zero Senate seats, and the Democrats will actually *gain* ground in the House.

1998, just days before the election: Jesse Ventura will win the Minnesota governorship.

December 2003: John Kerry will win the Democratic nomination.

December 2003: Howard Dean will win no primaries outside of his home state.

Fall of 2007: John McCain will win the Republican nomination.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Summer of 2010: Pat Quinn will win a full term as governor of Illinois.

[Sopranos Republican]

Before 1964: That one day the Democratic Presidential candidate will consistently carry every, or all but one county in Vermont. And that the governor will be a Democrat, one out of the two senators will be a democrat, and the other one will be a socialist who is a de facto Democrat, and that the Democratic Party will have huge majority's in both state houses. And pretty much the same thing will happen to the Republicans in Mississippi and Alabama.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

June 2006: Jennifer Granholm would be reelected governor of Michigan.

[Blackacre]

1956: The GOP runs candidates who are against New Deal policies.

Before 1994: The Democrats will have a winning Presidential streak, Congress will be Republican Territory

[Liberalrocks]

Before the market crashed.

2008 Obama winning Indiana was pretty shocking. North Carolina was too but Indiana takes the cake that year.

[SingingAnalyst]

WV votes GOP 4 times in a row 2000-2012. In 1980, after WV was one of only 6 states to vote Carter (and one of only 3 where the white vote went to Carter).
VT tied for 3rd lowest GOP percentage in US in 1992. In 1976 after Ford comfortably carried the state.
Macomb, MI votes GOP 6 times in a row 1972-1992. In 1968 after Humphrey won 55% in a 3 way race.
NH votes Dem 1992. In 1988 after NH ties for 2nd best state for Bush, or perhaps after 1991 Gulf War.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Before 1964: That one day the Democratic Presidential candidate will consistently carry every, or all but one county in Vermont. And that the governor will be a Democrat, one out of the two senators will be a democrat, and the other one will be a socialist who is a de facto Democrat, and that the Democratic Party will have huge majority's in both state houses. And pretty much the same thing will happen to the Republicans in Mississippi and Alabama.

But then just to mess with them, you tell them that Vermont has only ever elected 1 Democrat to the US Senate.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Before 1964: That one day the Democratic Presidential candidate will consistently carry every, or all but one county in Vermont. And that the governor will be a Democrat, one out of the two senators will be a democrat, and the other one will be a socialist who is a de facto Democrat, and that the Democratic Party will have huge majority's in both state houses. And pretty much the same thing will happen to the Republicans in Mississippi and Alabama.

But then just to mess with them, you tell them that Vermont has only ever elected 1 Democrat to the US Senate.

Bush winning WV in 2000

Obama winning Indiana 2008

Reagan winning Massachusetts 1980(Only state to go for McGovern)

Hoover winning the South in 1928

Clinton winning New Hampshire 1992

[SingingAnalyst]

DuPage County, IL votes Dem in 2008. (Any time prior to 2008)
WV is 5th worst Dem state in the nation 2012. (After 1992 election when WV was Clinton's 5th best state)

[kcguy]

I always thought the 2000 elections were pretty preposterous:

1.  After narrowly leading in polls all year, an incumbent senator was defeated by a corpse.
2.  Despite never having held elective office, the First Lady of the United States was elected to the Senate from a state she'd lived in for less than 2 years.
3.  The presidential election was decided by a single state.  A state where the margin of victory was less than 1/100 of 1%.  Oh, and the governor of that state happened to be the brother of the guy who won.  (Did I mention that an election happened in Canada almost simultaneously, and the entire official Canadian election campaign was shorter than the American recount?)

Go back to 1990, and try to get people to buy that combination.

[Ebsy]

January 2006: Jim Webb being elected Senator against incumbent George Allen in Virginia.
Morning of Tuesday, Nov. 7, 1948: Truman reelected President, almost winning in a landslide against Dewey.