VIRGINIA: Conservative paper endorses "None of the Above"

[Non Swing Voter]

This is kind of telling. 

I still fail to see how it is unreasonable to call Virginia a lean democrat state now.  At this point 70-80% of the state population lives in the eastern crescent, about half of those living in NOVA.  It is more unreasonable to say Virginia is an even 50/50 state when the main population centers are voting so heavily democrat nowadays.  The numbers do not add up.  The best argument I have seen to the contrary is that Virginia didn't vote more democrat than the country in the last election... not sure what that proves since the country voted democrat.  Some states swung democrat and/or republican in the last election to make that the case, but Virginia voters don't swing like they do in Ohio.  There are very conservative voters who will probably always vote Republican.  There are social moderates who will probably always vote Democrat.  Just because the margins are close doesn't mean they are swingy and that the state is 50/50.  The results mirrored the country as a whole because the numbers were close but in the Democrats' favor not because a lot of people swung. 

I also suspect the numbers will become more and more out of reach for Republicans over the next 10 years as NOVA becomes closer to 40% of the state population than 30%.

[IceSpear]

I'd usually define a "lean D" state as showing a consistent trend of being a few points more Democratic than the country as a whole. In the past 2 elections Virginia has matched the popular vote almost exactly. Of course, it was safe R in 2000/2004, which really shows how much of a disaster for Republicans it is that it's even contested, much less won by a Dem twice. I think we need to see how VA falls relative to the nation in 2016 to see if it has truly become a lean D state.

[Non Swing Voter]

I would not be surprised if it is 3-5 points more Democrat than the nation as a whole in 2016!

[ElectionsGuy]

First, the paper not endorsing Cuccinelli is embarrassing, but not super surprising. Cuccinelli is a terrible candidate and deserves no endorsement. Its not telling of Virginia getting bluer or anything.

And the whole Lean D Virginia thing, Virginia has to prove itself that it can be a Lean D state. Its always been regarded as the state that can go toward anyone. Virginia doesn't have as many swing voters, but it has enough to change its vote since its margins have been close in the last two presidential elections. Every state has a certain number of swing votes, but a lot of times it doesn't make a difference if the state is Safe (Hawaii), and every state has a certain number of decided stubborn voters, but sometimes it doesn't make a difference because the margins are so close (Virginia). Also, margins and votes of counties don't stay consistent, they change, trend, swing, etc. so you can't say with 100% confidence that Virginia will become a blue state. Likely, but not Safe.

The best argument I have seen to the contrary is that Virginia didn't vote more democrat than the country in the last election... not sure what that proves since the country voted democrat.

The country swings, the country will not consistently vote democratic forever. And when a republican wins, the republican will most likely win Virginia. That's why its not Lean D yet.

As I stated above, Virginia will have to prove itself as a Lean D state, we can't just say for sure that something will happen based off the patterns and population growth of today, even if they're likely to happen. With that said, in the coming years I expect Virginia to change a lot politically and become more liberal.

[Badger]

Um, what conservative paper?

[pbrower2a]

What is it -- Virginia has been more D than the US as a whole in only one Presidential election since the FDR era (2012)? It is easier to say that Barack Obama is a perfect match for Virginia than to say that the state is now more D than the US as a whole.

It is easy to see the demographic trends favoring Democrats, but such is not yet set in stone. The state voted for Herbert Hoover in 1928 (probably due to anti-Catholic sentiment  -- "Keep the Pope Out of the White House") and was one of the best states for Nixon in 1960, and it was the only former-Confederate state to choose Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter. It never voted for Bill Clinton even in a near-landslide.   

When Virginia goes for the Democratic nominee in 2016, I may be convinced.

[Non Swing Voter]

What is it -- Virginia has been more D than the US as a whole in only one Presidential election since the FDR era (2012)? It is easier to say that Barack Obama is a perfect match for Virginia than to say that the state is now more D than the US as a whole.

It is easy to see the demographic trends favoring Democrats, but such is not yet set in stone. The state voted for Herbert Hoover in 1928 (probably due to anti-Catholic sentiment  -- "Keep the Pope Out of the White House") and was one of the best states for Nixon in 1960, and it was the only former-Confederate state to choose Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter. It never voted for Bill Clinton even in a near-landslide.   

When Virginia goes for the Democratic nominee in 2016, I may be convinced.

I like how 2008 and 2012 are not really strong evidence but the 1960 election of Nixon is...

[Flake]

What is it -- Virginia has been more D than the US as a whole in only one Presidential election since the FDR era (2012)?

Virginia has been more Republican than the national total in these elections: (going from '68)

1968
1972
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008

Virginia has been more Democratic than the national total in these elections:

1976
2012

Virginia was a West Virginia-esque state, pretty conservative but voted Democratic.

[Non Swing Voter]

What is it -- Virginia has been more D than the US as a whole in only one Presidential election since the FDR era (2012)?

Virginia has been more Republican than the national total in these elections: (going from '68)

1968
1972
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008

Virginia has been more Democratic than the national total in these elections:

1976
2012

Virginia was a West Virginia-esque state, pretty conservative but voted Democratic.

Since 2000 or so there has been a very obvious democratic trend that has accelerated, which Republicans like to pretend is not the reality but very clearly is.

[pbrower2a]

What is it -- Virginia has been more D than the US as a whole in only one Presidential election since the FDR era (2012)?

Virginia has been more Republican than the national total in these elections: (going from '4

1952
1960
1964
1968
1972
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008

Virginia has been more Democratic than the national total in these elections:

1976
2012

It was ambiguous in 1948 and 1956, with both the Democrat and the Republican doing worse in Virginia than they did nationwide. 

Virginia was a West Virginia-esque state, pretty conservative but voted Democratic.

Virginia is very dissimilar from West Virginia in demographics, economics, politics, and culture. Virginia has gone from being a predominately-Southern state to a predominately-Northeastern State. West Virginia used to be very liberal on economics due to the powerful United Mine Workers union, but now that that union's power has been gutted the right-wing  mine owners prevail in politics.   Virginia has a huge number of blacks, and West Virginia has very few.

Virginia and West Virginia have voted together in:

2004
2000
1984
1972
1964
1956
1948

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Virginia and West Virginia seem to have been going in opposite directions in politics since 2000. One of the oddities of Virginia is that it is the first state to elect a black as Governor (and by all accounts he was a good one), which probably made it far easier for Virginia to vote for Barack Obama.

Virginia has become a legitimate swing state capable of deciding a close election. One election or even a trend to being slightly D in a Presidential election does not make it a D-leaning state. Let it pass a state like Iowa, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin (a tough standard) and it will clearly be a D state.

[Flake]

What is it -- Virginia has been more D than the US as a whole in only one Presidential election since the FDR era (2012)?

Virginia has been more Republican than the national total in these elections: (going from '48)

1952
1960
1964
1968
1972
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008

Virginia has been more Democratic than the national total in these elections:

1976
2012

It was ambiguous in 1948 and 1956, with both the Democrat and the Republican doing worse in Virginia than they did nationwide.  I'm talking about marginal victories here

Virginia was a West Virginia-esque state, pretty conservative but voted Democratic. Before and during FDR's term.

Virginia is very dissimilar from West Virginia in demographics, economics, politics, and culture. Virginia has gone from being a predominately-Southern state to a predominately-Northeastern State. West Virginia used to be very liberal on economics due to the powerful United Mine Workers union, but now that that union's power has been gutted the right-wing  mine owners prevail in politics.   Virginia has a huge number of blacks, and West Virginia has very few.

Virginia and West Virginia have voted together in:

2004
2000
1984
1972
1964
1956
1948

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Virginia and West Virginia seem to have been going in opposite directions in politics since 2000. One of the oddities of Virginia is that it is the first state to elect a black as Governor (and by all accounts he was a good one), which probably made it far easier for Virginia to vote for Barack Obama.

Virginia has become a legitimate swing state capable of deciding a close election. One election or even a trend to being slightly D in a Presidential election does not make it a D-leaning state. Let it pass a state like Iowa, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin (a tough standard) and it will clearly be a D state.

[Non Swing Voter]

What is it -- Virginia has been more D than the US as a whole in only one Presidential election since the FDR era (2012)?

Virginia has been more Republican than the national total in these elections: (going from '48)

1952
1960
1964
1968
1972
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008

Virginia has been more Democratic than the national total in these elections:

1976
2012

It was ambiguous in 1948 and 1956, with both the Democrat and the Republican doing worse in Virginia than they did nationwide.  I'm talking about marginal victories here

Virginia was a West Virginia-esque state, pretty conservative but voted Democratic. Before and during FDR's term.

Virginia is very dissimilar from West Virginia in demographics, economics, politics, and culture. Virginia has gone from being a predominately-Southern state to a predominately-Northeastern State. West Virginia used to be very liberal on economics due to the powerful United Mine Workers union, but now that that union's power has been gutted the right-wing  mine owners prevail in politics.   Virginia has a huge number of blacks, and West Virginia has very few.

Virginia and West Virginia have voted together in:

2004
2000
1984
1972
1964
1956
1948

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Virginia and West Virginia seem to have been going in opposite directions in politics since 2000. One of the oddities of Virginia is that it is the first state to elect a black as Governor (and by all accounts he was a good one), which probably made it far easier for Virginia to vote for Barack Obama.

Virginia has become a legitimate swing state capable of deciding a close election. One election or even a trend to being slightly D in a Presidential election does not make it a D-leaning state. Let it pass a state like Iowa, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin (a tough standard) and it will clearly be a D state.

Saying it needs to pass solidly blue states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which have voted democrat (often by wide margins) for decades to become dem leaning is nonsensical. 

[barfbag]

This is kind of telling. 

I still fail to see how it is unreasonable to call Virginia a lean democrat state now.  At this point 70-80% of the state population lives in the eastern crescent, about half of those living in NOVA.  It is more unreasonable to say Virginia is an even 50/50 state when the main population centers are voting so heavily democrat nowadays.  The numbers do not add up.  The best argument I have seen to the contrary is that Virginia didn't vote more democrat than the country in the last election... not sure what that proves since the country voted democrat.  Some states swung democrat and/or republican in the last election to make that the case, but Virginia voters don't swing like they do in Ohio.  There are very conservative voters who will probably always vote Republican.  There are social moderates who will probably always vote Democrat.  Just because the margins are close doesn't mean they are swingy and that the state is 50/50.  The results mirrored the country as a whole because the numbers were close but in the Democrats' favor not because a lot of people swung. 

I also suspect the numbers will become more and more out of reach for Republicans over the next 10 years as NOVA becomes closer to 40% of the state population than 30%.

I don't think calling it lean Democrat is too unreasonable, but when dealing with where a state falls, I've never heard of including state politics in the mix. No one ever includes state politics. No, it's usually where a state has fallen in recent elections. It's likely that Virginia will move more to the left and then your leaning Democrat label will be correct. In the last two elections, Virginia has matched the popular vote. So, when dealing with presidential elections, it's as purple as a state can get. When trends are included and we're talking about where a state will be a decade or even an election or two from now, then leans Democrat would be correct.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is kind of telling. 

I still fail to see how it is unreasonable to call Virginia a lean democrat state now.  At this point 70-80% of the state population lives in the eastern crescent, about half of those living in NOVA.  It is more unreasonable to say Virginia is an even 50/50 state when the main population centers are voting so heavily democrat nowadays.  The numbers do not add up.  The best argument I have seen to the contrary is that Virginia didn't vote more democrat than the country in the last election... not sure what that proves since the country voted democrat.  Some states swung democrat and/or republican in the last election to make that the case, but Virginia voters don't swing like they do in Ohio.  There are very conservative voters who will probably always vote Republican.  There are social moderates who will probably always vote Democrat.  Just because the margins are close doesn't mean they are swingy and that the state is 50/50.  The results mirrored the country as a whole because the numbers were close but in the Democrats' favor not because a lot of people swung. 

I also suspect the numbers will become more and more out of reach for Republicans over the next 10 years as NOVA becomes closer to 40% of the state population than 30%.

I don't think calling it lean Democrat is too unreasonable, but when dealing with where a state falls, I've never heard of including state politics in the mix. No one ever includes state politics. No, it's usually where a state has fallen in recent elections. It's likely that Virginia will move more to the left and then your leaning Democrat label will be correct. In the last two elections, Virginia has matched the popular vote. So, when dealing with presidential elections, it's as purple as a state can get. When trends are included and we're talking about where a state will be a decade or even an election or two from now, then leans Democrat would be correct.

Remind me, didn't you predict Romney would win Virginia by 2 points in 2012?

[DINGO Joe]

This is kind of telling. 

I still fail to see how it is unreasonable to call Virginia a lean democrat state now.  At this point 70-80% of the state population lives in the eastern crescent, about half of those living in NOVA.  It is more unreasonable to say Virginia is an even 50/50 state when the main population centers are voting so heavily democrat nowadays.  The numbers do not add up.  The best argument I have seen to the contrary is that Virginia didn't vote more democrat than the country in the last election... not sure what that proves since the country voted democrat.  Some states swung democrat and/or republican in the last election to make that the case, but Virginia voters don't swing like they do in Ohio.  There are very conservative voters who will probably always vote Republican.  There are social moderates who will probably always vote Democrat.  Just because the margins are close doesn't mean they are swingy and that the state is 50/50.  The results mirrored the country as a whole because the numbers were close but in the Democrats' favor not because a lot of people swung. 

I also suspect the numbers will become more and more out of reach for Republicans over the next 10 years as NOVA becomes closer to 40% of the state population than 30%.

I don't think calling it lean Democrat is too unreasonable, but when dealing with where a state falls, I've never heard of including state politics in the mix. No one ever includes state politics. No, it's usually where a state has fallen in recent elections. It's likely that Virginia will move more to the left and then your leaning Democrat label will be correct. In the last two elections, Virginia has matched the popular vote. So, when dealing with presidential elections, it's as purple as a state can get. When trends are included and we're talking about where a state will be a decade or even an election or two from now, then leans Democrat would be correct.

Remind me, didn't you predict Romney would win Virginia by 2 points in 2012?

HaHa.  I've been on the board for less than a year and it's seems like barfy's been here for 10 years, but no he's only been on the board for about 4 months.

[DS0816]

Virginia is now a bellwether state. Along with Colorado. And they are now in line with Ohio and Florida.


To call Va. a Lean Democratic state is to say that it is such because we are now in a presidential realignment period that is [Lean] Democratic.