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| | |-+  Which states have picked the winner the longest?
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Author Topic: Which states have picked the winner the longest?  (Read 2163 times)
senorboogie woogie
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« on: October 15, 2004, 02:22:31 pm »
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Hola!

Which states have consistantly voted for the winner in Presidential elections? I think Tennessee has a good winning streak, only picked the loser once since 1932.

Which state always picks the loser?

Which state has voted for the same party the longest? Probably Hawaii since 1960 elections, all Democrat. Utah hasn't voted Democrat since 1964. Minnesota since 1972.

Any other comments?

Senor

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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2004, 03:38:07 pm »
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Missouri has picked it every time since 1960.  Delaware missed in 2000, but otherwise has had a good record.

The Green Papers has a record of how well each state has done since 1972 here:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G04/President-1972-2000.phtml?format=winner

Hope it helps!
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2004, 05:55:11 pm »
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More information can be found about this topic here:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/pe2000bellwether.php

There are also eight counties that had a perfect record for the ten elections between 1960 and 1996. One, Ferry County, Washington, is a semi-bellwether. In 1988, it had a tie down to the very vote between Dukakis and Bush.

In 2000, the streaks were ruined for the state of Delaware, as well as New Castle County, Del., and Socorro County, N.M. All of the other bellwethers remain so.

The state results in 2000 for the bellwether states were:
Delaware - Kerry +13.1
Missouri - Bush +3.3

The bellwether county results were:

New Castle, DE - Gore +23.0
Socorro, NM - Gore +1.8
Vigo, IN - Bush +1.2
Van Buren, AR - Bush +4.1
Lincoln, MO - Bush +10.0
Logan, AR - Bush +14.8
Eddy, NM - Bush +18.1
Ferry, WA - Bush +31.7

If Bush wins, it is almost definite that the last four counties will remain bellwethers; if Kerry wins, we may lose all of them, except perhaps Vigo County and Van Buren County. It all depends on the outcome.

I would be interested in stats about what county votes closest to the national percentage. Does anyone have that?
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Jim Valvano
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2004, 08:28:08 pm »
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The place with the longest streak of voting for one party is DC, which has voted Democratic all 10 time since it got the vote in '64. For the 50 states, the longest streak is a big tie between a bunch of states that voted for Johnson in '64 and never voted Democratic again. This tie includes Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Indiana, Virginia, and Alaska - possibly others. I think Mississippi has a historic record of picking losers - partly because of all the years they voted for the States Rights 3rd party candidates (1948, 1960, 1968)
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2004, 11:20:39 pm »
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Here is one for all you.....which county has picked the winner for the longest?
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2004, 03:54:01 am »
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There are also eight counties that had a perfect record for the ten elections between 1960 and 1996. One, Ferry County, Washington, is a semi-bellwether. In 1988, it had a tie down to the very vote between Dukakis and Bush.

In 2000, the streaks were ruined for the state of Delaware, as well as New Castle County, Del., and Socorro County, N.M. All of the other bellwethers remain so.

The state results in 2000 for the bellwether states were:
Delaware - Kerry +13.1
Missouri - Bush +3.3

The bellwether county results were:

New Castle, DE - Gore +23.0
Socorro, NM - Gore +1.8
Vigo, IN - Bush +1.2
Van Buren, AR - Bush +4.1
Lincoln, MO - Bush +10.0
Logan, AR - Bush +14.8
Eddy, NM - Bush +18.1
Ferry, WA - Bush +31.7
Of course, you could argue that since these (those for the counties) are Popular vote results and Bush did not win the popular vote, New Castle and Socorro are the counties with the longest streak as bellwethers.
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2004, 09:09:17 am »
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More information can be found about this topic here:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/pe2000bellwether.php

There are also eight counties that had a perfect record for the ten elections between 1960 and 1996. One, Ferry County, Washington, is a semi-bellwether. In 1988, it had a tie down to the very vote between Dukakis and Bush.

In 2000, the streaks were ruined for the state of Delaware, as well as New Castle County, Del., and Socorro County, N.M. All of the other bellwethers remain so.

The state results in 2000 for the bellwether states were:
Delaware - Kerry +13.1
Missouri - Bush +3.3

The bellwether county results were:

New Castle, DE - Gore +23.0
Socorro, NM - Gore +1.8
Vigo, IN - Bush +1.2
Van Buren, AR - Bush +4.1
Lincoln, MO - Bush +10.0
Logan, AR - Bush +14.8
Eddy, NM - Bush +18.1
Ferry, WA - Bush +31.7

If Bush wins, it is almost definite that the last four counties will remain bellwethers; if Kerry wins, we may lose all of them, except perhaps Vigo County and Van Buren County. It all depends on the outcome.

I would be interested in stats about what county votes closest to the national percentage. Does anyone have that?
I had written Dave on this subject before the 2000 election.  At that time the Atlas did not have county results before 1960, but I was able to track them down in America at the Polls 1920-1964" by Scammon.

IIRC, Dave was able to find the bellwether counties graphically by overlaying  maps.

The streak of a few of the counties began before 1960:

New Castle, DE had been right since 1936 (it voted for Hoover in 1932).  If we go by the national popular vote, it has been right 17 straight times.

Socorro, NM has|had been right since 1952 (it voted for Dewey in 1948).

Vigo, IN has been right since 1956.  Going by the electoral vote, it is now the national bellwether at 12 straight elections.

The other 5: Logan, AR; Van Buren, AR; Lincoln, MO; Eddy, NM, and Ferry, WA all started their streak in 1960.

Before the 2000 election, there were 75 other counties whose streak began in 1964 (i.e. they had voted for Nixon in 1960).  By state: Arkansas (2), Florida (2), Illinois (11), Indiana (Cool, Iowa (2), Kansas (1), Kentucky (1), Michigan (1), Minnesota (3), Missouri (17), New Jersey (2), Ohio (7), Oklahoma (1), South Dakota (1), Tennessee (6), Virginia (2), West Virginia (5), and Wisconsin (3).

There is one other county that is a possible bellwether - Valencia. NM.  In 1981, the western part of the county was split off to form Cibola County, which is more Democratic-leaning.  In 1976, the pre-split county was carried by Carter by 4.4%, so it is possible that the current area of Valencia County was carried by Ford.  Otherwise, it is possible that its streak began in 1952.

As for the States, Delaware has picked the popular vote winner since 1952. 

Missouri has picked the EV winner since 1960.  Had it not messed up in 1956, it would have been with the winner in every election of the 20th century (Bryan carried Missouri in 1900).  In 1956, Missouri switched from Eisenhower to Stevenson by 4,000 votes (0.2%), in a election in which Stevenson only carried 7 States, 6 in the South, even losing VA, KY, TN, FL, LA, and TX.
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2004, 01:17:36 pm »
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So, in other words, if you go by popular vote, New Castle County, Delaware, is the longest streak (76 years) and if you go by electoral vote, the longest streak is Vigo County, Indiana (44 yeras). I think that's right.
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2004, 11:43:19 pm »
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So, in other words, if you go by popular vote, New Castle County, Delaware, is the longest streak (76 years) and if you go by electoral vote, the longest streak is Vigo County, Indiana (44 yeras). I think that's right.
New Castle County, Delaware (Wilmington) has voted with the popular vote winner for 64 years (17 elections since 1936).

Vigo County, Indiana (Terre Haute) has voted with the winning candidate every year since 1956 (12 elections).  In 1952, it went for Stevenson by 35 out of over 50,000 votes.  Its previous miss was in 1908.  Eugene V Debs was born in Terre Haute, which he represented in the state legislature (before he became a socialist).

A possible alternative to Vigo County is Valencia County, New Mexico.  What makes it tricky is the western part of Valencia County was detached in 1981 to form Cibola County.   "Valencia County" has voted with the winner every year since 1952.  But the pre-1981 combined area voted for Dukakis in 1988.  While the combined area voted for Carter in 1976, it is possible that the current area of Valencia County went for Ford.

Cibola and Valencia counties are quite different.  Cibola County stretches to Arizona, has a 40% Native American population, and uranium mining is (was) the main industry, and has voted strongly Democrat in recent elections.   Valencia County is along the Rio Grande south of Albuquerque and has been growing fairly rapidly (about 50% in the 1990s).
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2004, 05:12:30 pm »
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Hola!

Which states have consistantly voted for the winner in Presidential elections? I think Tennessee has a good winning streak, only picked the loser once since 1932.

Which state always picks the loser?

Which state has voted for the same party the longest? Probably Hawaii since 1960 elections, all Democrat. Utah hasn't voted Democrat since 1964. Minnesota since 1972.

Any other comments?

Senor



You're incorrect about Hawaii.  Hawaii voted for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984.

There are a number of states that have not voted Democratic since 1964, mostly in the mountain west, but also Indiana.

Maine seems to have a knack for picking losers, while Missouri has a very good record of picking winners.  The last time Missouri voted with the loser was 1956, when it voted for Adlai Stevenson.

With the exception of 1980 and 1984, Massachusetts has voted Democratic as far back as I can remember.  Rhode Island voted Republican in 1972 and 1984, but otherwise voted Democratic as far back as I can remember.  Except for 1972, Minnesota has voted Democratic for as long as I can remember.
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2004, 06:40:15 pm »
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Minnesota voted for Ike both times, and before Roosevelt's '32 landslide, Democrats had never won the state (Roosevelt's 1912 win there was the only non-Republican victory since statehood).

MN's current streak is pretty impressive, but its 1860-1928 all-Republican/Bull-Moose run is more so.

What's the longest streak on the books?  I'm guessing Arkansas, voted Democrat every election 1876-1968.

Found a longer one...

Vermont.  Voted Whig / Republican every election from 1836 to 1960.  Other than Johnson's landslide in 1964, they didn't vote for a single Democrat between Monroe and Clinton.

I doubt anyone can beat that.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2005, 10:23:08 am »

The bellwether page here has been updated with county data (1960 through 2004) for the bellwethers defined as those counties having voted for the winning candidate in all general elections from 1960 through 1996, inclusive.  Vigo, IN remains the most solid bellwether of the nation (average of 0.9 percentage points difference from the national result for Democratic and Republican candidates since 1960).
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