I'm not sure if a Cap-n-Trade bill will move through the Senate in 2010. And if it waits until 2011, how the bill looks will depend on the elections.
Why not? Are Democrats too busy passing other legislation, or are they afraid of electoral ramifications if they pass a bill right before election time?
Well, the Democratic leadership does not want to force a painful vote in an election year if they don't have the votes necessary in the first place. Otherwise you just cause electoral losses and a depressed base and no actual policy accomplishments.
If cap-n-trade is the starting point for energy policy in the same way that the public option was the starting point for the healthcare bill, I don't think I even want to see what sort of ridiculousness the Senate would even pass. I find the concept of cap-n-trade with limited grandfather clauses to be reasonable, but I'm pretty sure that the grandfather clauses would be extended to perpetuity by the time the Senate is done with it.