US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[krazen1211]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

That's not that much different than the current map.  The current map has 30 McCain districts and 20 Obama districts.

The key issue is avoiding the donut hole of 53-59% districts which are inefficient packs.

In 2010 senate, 33 districts are 57%+ Burr, and 15 districts are 54%+ Marshall. Only 2 are in between.

[Mr.Phips]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

That's not that much different than the current map.  The current map has 30 McCain districts and 20 Obama districts.

The key issue is avoiding the donut hole of 53-59% districts which are inefficient packs.

In 2010 senate, 33 districts are 57%+ Burr, and 15 districts are 54%+ Marshall. Only 2 are in between.

Burr's 2010 performance was pretty much the ceiling for what Republicans can get in North Carolina these days.  I looked at the 2008 McCain/Obama numbers and there are a number of districts that McCain barely won.  SD-09, SD-17, and SD-27 come to mind.   

[Miles]

Burr's 2010 performance was pretty much the ceiling for what Republicans can get in North Carolina these days.  I looked at the 2008 McCain/Obama numbers and there are a number of districts that McCain barely won.  SD-09, SD-17, and SD-27 come to mind.   

I wouldn't call it the 'ceiling' per se, but yes, he did perform about as well as a generic Republican could in NC.

I'd also add SD-15 and SD-18 to that list.

Here are the Senate numbers: (from DKE)

  Pres                                 Party Line       
#    Obama    McCain    Margin     Dem    GOP    Margin
1      44.8%    54.7%      -9.9%    59.1%    40.0%     19.1%
2      38.9%    60.6%    -21.8%    48.6%    50.6%      -2.0%
3      62.3%    37.5%     24.8%    81.6%    17.9%     63.7%
4      66.1%    33.6%     32.5%    81.9%    17.7%     64.3%
5      62.2%    37.4%     24.8%    75.5%    24.1%     51.4%
6      39.6%    59.9%    -20.3%    49.5%    48.8%       0.8%
7      39.1%    60.5%    -21.4%    50.4%    48.9%       1.4%
8      44.1%    55.4%    -11.3%    54.4%    43.8%     10.6%
9      47.8%    51.6%      -3.8%    54.0%    45.0%      9.0%
10    41.5%    57.9%    -16.4%    54.3%    44.8%       9.6%
11    41.5%    58.1%    -16.6%    53.4%    46.0%       7.4%
12    40.3%    59.3%    -19.0%    55.5%    43.7%     11.8%
13    52.6%    46.9%       5.7%    79.4%    19.4%     60.1%
14    76.2%    23.3%     52.9%    82.5%    17.0%     65.6%
15    49.3%    50.0%      -0.7%    48.3%    51.0%      -2.7%
16    63.5%    35.7%     27.8%    65.7%    33.2%     32.5%
17    48.9%    50.3%      -1.4%    47.6%    51.5%      -3.9%
18    48.0%    51.3%      -3.3%    55.2%    44.0%     11.2%
19    49.9%    49.7%       0.1%    61.3%    37.8%     23.6%
20    75.8%    23.9%     51.9%    83.8%    15.7%     68.1%
21    68.0%    31.7%     36.2%    77.3%    22.0%     55.3%
22    62.4%    37.0%     25.4%    72.2%    27.0%     45.2%
23    66.8%    32.5%     34.2%    73.0%    26.3%     46.7%
24    42.2%    57.1%    -15.0%    50.4%    48.7%       1.7%
25    42.3%    57.1%    -14.8%    57.6%    41.4%     16.1%
26    43.3%    56.0%    -12.7%    48.8%    50.2%      -1.5%
27    45.9%    53.4%      -7.5%    49.3%    49.9%      -0.6%
28    81.9%    17.8%     64.1%    86.7%    12.7%     74.0%
29    33.5%    65.8%    -32.3%    35.4%    63.7%    -28.3%
30    32.6%    66.4%    -33.8%    40.3%    58.2%    -17.9%
31    38.7%    60.7%    -22.0%    41.2%    57.9%    -16.7%
32    69.5%    29.9%     39.6%    77.4%    22.0%     55.5%
33    34.4%    64.8%    -30.4%    39.7%    59.3%    -19.6%
34    37.2%    62.1%    -24.9%    45.2%    53.8%      -8.6%
35    37.1%    62.3%    -25.2%    38.5%    60.8%    -22.3%
36    39.4%    60.0%    -20.5%    44.7%    54.5%      -9.8%
37    66.5%    32.9%     33.6%    68.4%    30.7%     37.7%
38    78.1%    21.5%     56.6%    82.3%    17.2%     65.1%
39    44.5%    55.0%    -10.4%    36.8%    62.5%    -25.7%
40    80.3%    19.3%     61.0%    84.1%    15.4%     68.7%
41    47.0%    52.5%      -5.4%    43.4%    55.9%    -12.5%
42    35.7%    63.5%    -27.8%    40.3%    58.6%    -18.3%
43    37.4%    62.0%    -24.6%    44.2%    53.5%      -9.3%
44    36.6%    62.8%    -26.2%    40.0%    56.7%    -16.6%
45    40.0%    59.0%    -18.9%    45.6%    53.2%      -7.5%
46    39.9%    59.5%    -19.7%    51.9%    46.9%       5.0%
47    38.0%    61.1%    -23.1%    49.1%    49.7%      -0.6%
48    42.0%    57.3%    -15.3%    44.6%    54.3%      -9.8%
49    58.8%    40.5%     18.3%    66.2%    32.8%     33.3%
50    42.0%    57.1%    -15.1%    52.7%    46.3%       6.5%

[BigSkyBob]

House of Representative Plan:

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Lewis-Dollar-Dockham_1&Body=House

[Miles]

Thanks.

Good link, BigSkyBob!

From my prima face analysis, the House map looks worse than the Senate map.

[minionofmidas]

North Carolina is a quarter black, doesn't it need three Black-opportunity districts?



(None of which is over 50% Black VAP; the green and grey skirting very near, the yellow doing the same if you lump the Lumbee with the other kind of colored folks.)

[minionofmidas]

Note that the map is not an R gerrymander, the other districts being pretty much drawn to make as much sense as can still be made after those three monstrosities are in place. The teal is quite heavily Democratic, the pink and red are quite marginally McCain, and Shuler hasn't been targetted either, so it could conceivably elect 7 Democrats.

[minionofmidas]

Here's an attempt at a fair map if the VRA did not exist. Some areas are probably all wrong.



Before coming to a conclusion as to what map to draw, I kind of need to decide what kind of VRA district I want and how many. If it's two, Watt's Black Snake is pretty much a given (or maybe it's possible to build a Black seat out of Charlotte and points east? That urban Charlotte seat above is 43% White, 35% Black), but there's still leeway in the east. Rural? That'd be pretty much that green district from the map above, possibly with the southern end cut out somehow. Rural/Durham/Raleigh? That might be an interesting one (and your only hope if you want to draw a really solidly, like 55% and up, Black seat in NC.)

[Miles]

Your fair map is interesting.

Ellmers would be drawn in with McIntyre in the red district, though he'd likely run in the purple on. Maybe Kissell would run there instead; putting all of Union county in his current district would really drive up his McCain %.

Overall, looks like 7-5-1.

This was my attempt at 3 VRA seats:

[minionofmidas]

Your fair map is interesting.

Ellmers would be drawn in with McIntyre in the red district, though he'd likely run in the purple on. Maybe Kissell would run there instead; putting all of Union county in his current district would really drive up his McCain %.

Overall, looks like 7-5-1.

Pretty clearly 6-6-1 on the presidential figures, actually, green, purple (though it's a borderline marginal), pink, cyan, grey and cornflower as R districts; Shuler's as a seventh McCain district,  but the most marginal of all 13. The red district is actually quite solidly Democratic; I doubt McIntyre would move.

The map's not guaranteed to lock out the Blacks either; Democratic primary electorate in the blue, the red and the Charlotte district would probably be majority Black. Though who knows what would happen in those circumstances. The VRA is not, after all, a perfectly pointless bit of chicanery.

Which brings me back to my question. I need pointers as to what's most preferrable regarding the VRA seats before I can start drawing my map for realz.

[krazen1211]

NC legislative maps up at the same link.

34 seats where Obama got 55%+.
8 seats where Obama got 50-55%.

60 seats where McCain got 55%+
18 seats where McCain got 50-55%.

[minionofmidas]

60 seats where McCain got 55%+

That has a certain magic to it.

I looked at the 2008 McCain/Obama numbers and there are a number of districts that McCain barely won.  (...) SD-17 (...) come to mind.   

I'd also add SD-15 and SD-18 to that list.

Yeah, trying to take (or hold?) three out of five seats in Wake County is going to slice your margins down.

[timothyinMD]

North Carolina is a quarter black, doesn't it need three Black-opportunity districts?



(None of which is over 50% Black VAP; the green and grey skirting very near, the yellow doing the same if you lump the Lumbee with the other kind of colored folks.)

I'm pretty sure the Constitution does not require districts allotted by race or ethnicity.  Thanks

[Verily]

North Carolina is a quarter black, doesn't it need three Black-opportunity districts?



(None of which is over 50% Black VAP; the green and grey skirting very near, the yellow doing the same if you lump the Lumbee with the other kind of colored folks.)

I'm pretty sure the Constitution does not require districts allotted by race or ethnicity.  Thanks

Statute and judge-made law do, though. Lest you need be reminded: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act

(That said, North Carolina is not a preclearance state, so the bar is pretty low, and two districts  likely meet it.)

[Miles]

Your fair map is interesting.

Ellmers would be drawn in with McIntyre in the red district, though he'd likely run in the purple on. Maybe Kissell would run there instead; putting all of Union county in his current district would really drive up his McCain %.

Overall, looks like 7-5-1.

Pretty clearly 6-6-1 on the presidential figures, actually, green, purple (though it's a borderline marginal), pink, cyan, grey and cornflower as R districts; Shuler's as a seventh McCain district,  but the most marginal of all 13. The red district is actually quite solidly Democratic; I doubt McIntyre would move.

Still the best scenario for Dems on your fair map would be 8-5. They'd have 5 fairly safe seats (the blue one, 2 in the Triangle, Greensboro/W-S, and Charlotte), Kissell would run in the red district, they'd somehow get McIntyre to run in the purple one and Shuler would hold down the tan district pretty easily.

[Miles]

Here's my shot at a fair/nonpartisan map. Its 7-6 R at the Presidential level, but would probably be 7-5-1 D.

I tried to keep COI together, except for in the Triangle; I drew the Chapel Hill liberals into the blue GOP-leaning district (I've had a grudge against UNC Chapel Hill ever since they turned my application down).



Democrats would have:

Red- (55-44 Obama) [Butterfield, but he'd be vulnerable to a primary challenge]
Pink- (52-47 Obama) [Kissell vs. Ellmers]
Gray (52-47 McCain) [Still safe for McIntyre]
Yellow (64-35 Obama) [Miller, though maybe Price]
Tan- (59-41 Obama) [Open, though Miller could run here and give Price the Yellow district]
Navy- (66-33 Obama) [Watt]
Lime- (53-46 McCain) [Still safe for Shuler]

Republicans would have:

Green- (55-44 McCain) [Jones]
Blue- (52-47 McCain) [Coble, he's a fairly weak incumbent for only an R+6 district though]
Teal- (64-35 McCain) [McHenry, or maybe Coble could run here, making the primary bloody]
Cyan- (59-40 McCain) [Myrick]
Orange- (62-37 McCain) [Foxx woudl actually live in her own district!]

The Purple district would an open swing district. It went 51-48 Obama but votes 51-49 for Republicans on the state level.

[Frodo]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

House of Representative Plan:

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Lewis-Dollar-Dockham_1&Body=House

-----------------------------------------------------

What's the likelihood that the Justice Department will approve these maps?  Also, when is the congressional redistricting map coming out? 

[Miles]

What's the likelihood that the Justice Department will approve these maps?  Also, when is the congressional redistricting map coming out? 

The Congressional map is pretty old news...they went for 10-3.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1&Body=Congress

[BigSkyBob]

The map at the link below is one of the most interesting maps I have seen:

http://www.carolinapoliticsonline.com/2011/07/04/fair-districts/

[The mapmaker embraces the absurdities of so-called "libertarianism."]

[minionofmidas]

So he kept Winston-Salem and Greensboro separate, which is reasonable. And he split Charlotte which is meh - but a solitary Charlotte seat will exclude part of the suburbs anyways so it's okay I guess. In the Northeast he drew much the same as I did, except putting South Wake in with Fayetteville - looks calculated to create an extra tossup (the one possible type of gerrymandering you very rarely see in real politics!)
And why people always do that with Robeson County is beyond my comprehension, frankly. Probably being influenced by the current map.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The map at the link below is one of the most interesting maps I have seen:

http://www.carolinapoliticsonline.com/2011/07/04/fair-districts/

[The mapmaker embraces the absurdities of so-called "libertarianism."]

[sarcasm]Yes, that is without a doubt the fairest map I have ever seen. Obviously any fair map would split Charlotte and Raleigh right down the middle. [/sarcasm]

You'd think a "libertarian" would care more about communities of interest. If there's one thing I agree with BigSkyBob about, it's that libertarianism is absurd.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

HOW DARE THEY PUT ME IN JONES' DISTRICT!!!!!!!!!!

[Miles]

HOW DARE THEY PUT ME IN JONES' DISTRICT!!!!!!!!!!

He's the only Republican in the NC delegation I like.

I'm ok with Coble too, but the others are nuts.

You're lucky. I'm still stuck with Myrick...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'd rather have Myrick. She has never struck me as being that bad. What don't you like about her? I don't see how I am really lucky unless you think Myrick is worse then Ellmers.

I thought Coble had some connections with extremist groups. Though that may be because someone used to complain about him a lot in discussions with me.

Jones isn't horrible, but I don't want to be represented by him though.

[Miles]

I'd rather have Myrick. She has never struck me as being that bad. What don't you like about her? I don't see how I am really lucky unless you think Myrick is worse then Ellmers.

I thought Coble had some connections with extremist groups. Though that may be because someone used to complain about him a lot in discussions with me.

Jones isn't horrible, but I don't want to be represented by him though.

Myrick is rabidly anti-Islam. She also broke her term limits pledge.

I think Coble is pretty genuine and I think he means well. I like that he took the No Pension Pledge.