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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Kansas  (Read 10284 times)
Torie
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« Reply #75 on: April 01, 2012, 01:39:06 pm »
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LOL.  Memory is the second thing to go.

Anyway, I like this map better. I like squares, where possible.  I do that nasty chop of the county east of Wichita in honor of respecting its metro area.

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« Reply #76 on: April 01, 2012, 02:07:50 pm »
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Hutchinson is for some reason not part of the Wichita metro according to the Census Bureau definition (but rather forms its own Metro), and is also already included in the 1st district.
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« Reply #77 on: April 01, 2012, 02:13:31 pm »
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Hutchinson is for some reason not part of the Wichita metro according to the Census Bureau definition (but rather forms its own Metro), and is also already included in the 1st district.

I don't care what the census bureau thinks. Anyway, this appeared to me to be the best cut, after mixing and matching counties back and forth. I don't like chopping in half tiny counties.
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« Reply #78 on: April 01, 2012, 03:06:44 pm »
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What matters, I suppose, is what the people of Hutchinson (and Wichita) think of it*. Which I don't know, really. The Census Bureau definition is quite technical and largely about commuters to the central county as a percentage of total residents with a job - which can lead to formerly wholly rural counties being included in a definition more quickly than counties with an older urban core. They do consider it sufficiently separate that the joint TV market is referred to as the Wichita-Hutchinson Market, not the Wichita Market.

*both in theory for finding the best map - and in practice, as Speaker O'Neal is from Hutchinson. Grin Which I suppose means the fact that none of the maps he's let out of committee have included a transfer of Hutchinson says something about where the town wants to be. I'd personally go with least change for CD4 if I were a judge drawing the map.
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« Reply #79 on: April 01, 2012, 03:39:06 pm »
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That Hutchinson would rather be the largest city in its district rather than just sit in Wichita's shadow should surprise no one. And Hutchinson strikes me as the type of place where people would be very adamant that they aren't a Wichita suburb (much like St. Cloud. Or Boulder, CO, or Reading and Lancaster, PA, or Kenosh and Racine, WI, and even places where it's not as defensible a position like Bel Air, MD, Rockland County, NY and where StatesRights was from.)
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« Reply #80 on: April 01, 2012, 04:46:39 pm »
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Hacking up Southeast Kansas is almost as frowned upon (by politicians with connections to there) as hacking up KC or Topeka or Wichita. It's a well-defined region.

One thing that surprises me is that Jenkins was very much considered the moderate candidate in the 2008 primary... you wouldn't think that given the political battle lines now.

Southeastern Kansas (Baxter Springs) is where my great grandfather went from Jackson County, Indiana (a place he described as one where nobody amounted to much and never would), in his covered wagon with his new bride to claim his 160 acres under the Homestead Act as a Civil War Veteran. Great Grandfather was on Sherman's March to the Sea carrying two bullets in him acquired from all that action in Tennessee which he retained until his death in 1933 at age 93, in the rear guard as sharpshooter, trying to pick off the men in gray, who were trying to pick off them. My grandmother asked how good his aim was; he said well, more than once, hostile bullets ceased to fly after he took aim and pulled the trigger. That is all that he would say about it. They didn't eat much; there wasn't much around to eat for that rear guard, where the land had been "cleansed" of anything productive.

Anyway, as to SE Kansas, Baxter Springs was hell. Two of his first three children died there. There were some Native Americans around that did not appreciate the interlopers. So he finally decamped to Winterset, IA, and bought 10 arable acres for $12,000 an acre in today's dollars, next door to where his brother had a rather larger farm (how his brother got there is unknown, my grandmother never talked about that, and I discovered this all looking at old deeds in the Madison County Courthouse last year). Finally, his bonus for serving as a Veteran arrived rather late in 1877 (grandmother didn't mention that either, but I connected the dots, and figured out what must have happened), and with that money, he bought the bottom land just south of Winterset, or which I am now a proud one sixth owner. That land made him "rich" as it were.

It's kind of fun to part a part of American history that way. It comes alive, up close and personal.

That is truly fascinating. You see, my great grandfather along with his parents and brothers lived in Sheridan township KS in 1880 in the same Cherokee county as Baxter Springs. They originally also came from IN, however it was from Clinton county up near Kokomo, and they resided in MN for a few years in the 1870's before heading to KS. To continue the parallel my great grandmother and my grandfather eventually moved from MN to IA (Linn Co). Spooky.

When I was showing Cherokee county to my family on our 2008 road trip, I found it was home to the world's largest coal shovel, 16 stories high.

Anyway, to avoid splitting SE KS, why not give it to the western CD as I suggested earlier in the thread? The Dems can be split by putting Lawrence with OP and KCKS with Manhattan. Both those CDs are then about 51.5% McCain.




OK, to synthesize all the fine work on this that we have all collectively done ( Smiley), based on reading this, I agree that the map will be one of two types. One will be like you have drawn Mike, except that given the 1) Hutchinson contretemps, and 2) not "Deming" up KS-02 even if the extra Pubs should be moved into KS-03 from an RNC perspective, and after looking up what "SE Kansas" meant (yes, it is very much a real region and state of mind and it means the 9 corner counties), the map will either be something very much like this (SE KS is kept together, KS-01 is kept rural (with Hutchinson in it and not crowded in to boot, so that Speaker O'Neil can run for the seat someday or whatever, and who might particularly love it because he is the "middle man between SE Kansas and the western Kansas), KS-02 is not made materially more Dem (it's 53.5%-44.8% McCain), so the only potential departure from meeting everyone's list of "demands" is that SE KS is moved from KS-02 to KS-01).  Is doing the CD switch of SE Kansas some cardinal sin in and of itself or not?  



or this (it looks prettier, but maybe putting McPherson in KS-04 is its own little sin, and a bridge too far for some faction or person who's a player):



Absent this kind of map, the other option is that we get something very much like the "clean map" that I drew (see below), the State Senate drew and passed, and that the courts will draw if no map is passed. I think we are down to one or the other. It is fortunate for the Pubs that KS-03 needs to lose 50,000 in population, which kicks it out of Lawrence and Douglas County, and instead picking up 10,000 people in the county south of Douglas. Absent that, the downside for the Pub squabbling would be that a court would draw KS-03 as including Johnson, Douglas and Wyandotte, which would make it hyper marginal.




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« Reply #81 on: April 01, 2012, 06:05:11 pm »
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Is it possible to go south of Wichita to connect western and SE Kansas?

As they've had to come east, they've gone north of Wichita rather than splitting Wichita, and they've had to keep going further east to make room for the Wichita district.
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« Reply #82 on: April 01, 2012, 06:33:37 pm »
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Is it possible to go south of Wichita to connect western and SE Kansas?

As they've had to come east, they've gone north of Wichita rather than splitting Wichita, and they've had to keep going further east to make room for the Wichita district.


Hey, I like it!



In fact, I like it so much that I sent an email off to Speaker O'Neil attaching it, and commending its virtues and seeming meeting of all of the little constraints out there that have folks in gridlock.  Kudos!  Smiley
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« Reply #83 on: April 01, 2012, 09:30:46 pm »

Is it possible to go south of Wichita to connect western and SE Kansas?

As they've had to come east, they've gone north of Wichita rather than splitting Wichita, and they've had to keep going further east to make room for the Wichita district.


Hey, I like it!



In fact, I like it so much that I sent an email off to Speaker O'Neil attaching it, and commending its virtues and seeming meeting of all of the little constraints out there that have folks in gridlock.  Kudos!  Smiley

Before you send the email, let me suggest a modification between CD 2 and 3. Keep all of Miami county south of Johnson in CD 3 and split off a piece of KC into CD 2. It doesn't hurt CD 2 too much (53% McCain), but helps keep CD 2 out of extreme danger (50.5% McCain). I'll redraw my map showing it to incorporate the southern bridge and then post.
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« Reply #84 on: April 01, 2012, 09:59:20 pm »

Here's the way I would do the southern link. I think the link is best as whole counties, and I only grab the city of Mulvane south of Wichita to keep it whole. CD 3 is 50.5% McCain and CD 2 is 52.8%. The maximum deviation is 28 in this map.

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« Reply #85 on: April 01, 2012, 10:20:13 pm »
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Here's the way I would do the southern link. I think the link is best as whole counties, and I only grab the city of Mulvane south of Wichita to keep it whole. CD 3 is 50.5% McCain and CD 2 is 52.8%. The maximum deviation is 28 in this map.



Here is another version, which tries to respond where possible (I couldn't help him on the south corridor counties to the great KS SE, home of the ancestors of us both with the biggest shovel on the planet, but I did my cut there just to show my heart was in the right place) to the onanistic catawaulings of the incumbent in KS-04 (he had on his j'accuse list the abandonment of the good folks of Kingman from the Wichita family on which they depend). The State Senate seems to freak over splitting the KS metro area, so your little chop of Wyandotte might cause some contretemps (but yes, it does pump up the Pub numbers in KS-03, bless you, so if it sells with the "Torie" faction in the State Senate, that is just grand). KS in short is well - unusual. I gave a link to Speaker O'Neal to this page or the one before, so maybe he will read all this stuff. Smiley



Anyway, think about it, and maybe we can send another email with a final product, with your KS-03 "adjustment."  I already sent my first one. He is going to make another attempt next week to cut the Gordian Knot, so the time is now. Not of course that he really needs our "help." But one never knows. Bear in mind, that another factor, is that the farther KS-04 extends from Wichita up towards the north and NE outside of its "zone," the more there will be complaints from those roped in I suspect (e.g., Dickinson).


Here is a potential chop of Wyandotte (with Miami made whole into KS-03), which alas chops the city of KS, KS, itself (which can't be avoided even if you cut out the burbs first, so don't chop the burbs, but chop the city, but that is going to cause controversy). It does however move the ball a point in the Pub direction for KS-03, versus no chop of Wyandotte at all. Can it sell?






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« Reply #86 on: April 02, 2012, 07:49:43 am »

Here's my preferred chop of KC. KS tries to minimize county splits, and doesn't split more than one county between two districts. So, once you decide to chop KC, then Miami county must be whole.



Kingman to the east, but Hutchinson to the west. Tongue With that in mind, here's my remake. I've made CD 2 very rectangular, but cutting off those far western counties in exchange for land near Emporia drops CD 2 by 20 GOP basis points. So it goes.

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« Reply #87 on: April 02, 2012, 11:09:01 am »
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I was concerned about chopping into the black community in KSC, KS, but your chop isn't too egregious in that regard, Muon2, and picks up a few Pub basis points, so I went for it. However, KS-04 I don't think going that far east is going to fly, taking in those two counties that are currently in KS-02, that are really part of its "core," (exclusive if SE KS, which we are excising, to shore it up in exchange for its sucking up Douglas County and now part of KSC). Whether KS-02 is Pub enough for everyone but the State Senate moderates with this approach remains to be seen. Heck, it may not be even for them.  It is 20 basis points less Pub than the State Senate plan and what a court might draw (see the map at the bottom).

Anyway, putting the KS-02 20 Pub basis points issue aside, here is my volley back to you. I did follow your approach to put the county south of Miami in KS-01, for the sake of preserving rectangular shapes, and because it fits in just fine with SE KS.

Hey, as an aside, I "found" a Minneapolis, KS. So now we have Manhattan, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis. I wonder how many other such towns there are like that in the state. My favorite KS town of course is "Liberal," which isn't "liberal" at all. Smiley I wonder what its provenance is.

If this is a go, I will email it to the Speaker, with the screen shot and the drf file. He will probably think I am a pretty obsessive creative (obviously true), and laugh, but what the heck. If you want your name associated with any of this as a fellow state legislator lending "gravitas" to this all, let me know.





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« Reply #88 on: April 02, 2012, 11:21:42 am »

I was concerned about chopping into the black community in KSC, KS, but your chop isn't too egregious in that regard, Muon2, and picks up a few Pub basis points, so I went for it. However, KS-04 I don't think going that far east is going to fly, taking in those two counties that are currently in KS-02, that are really part of its "core," (exclusive if SE KS, which we are excising, to shore it up in exchange for its sucking up Douglas County and now part of KSC). Whether KS-02 is Pub enough for everyone but the State Senate moderates with this approach remains to be seen. Heck, it may not be even for them.  It is 20 basis points less Pub than the State Senate plan and what a court might draw (see the map at the bottom).

Anyway, putting the KS-02 20 Pub basis points issue aside, here is my volley back to you. I did follow your approach to put the county south of Miami in KS-01, for the sake of preserving rectangular shapes, and because it fits in just fine with SE KS.

Hey, as an aside, I "found" a Minneapolis, KS. So now we have Manhattan, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis. I wonder how many other such towns there are like that in the state. My favorite KS town of course is "Liberal," which isn't "liberal" at all. Smiley I wonder what its provenance is.

If this is a go, I will email it to the Speaker, with the screen shot and the drf file. He will probably think I am a pretty obsessive creative (obviously true), and laugh, but what the heck. If you want your name associated with any of this as a fellow state legislator lending "gravitas" to this all, let me know.







I'll sign off on the plan. You are free to use me as a reference, too.
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« Reply #89 on: April 02, 2012, 11:37:54 am »
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Here is one other alternative Muon2. No change in the KS-02 partisan numbers however. Do you like this one better?  The negative is that Elk County was previously in KS-04, so by moving it to KS-01, it is one more change element which seems to freak people out, even if the population numbers (like in Kingman), are de minimus.

Addendum: Oh this has another county chop, which sucks, so I don't think so. Do you agree?

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« Reply #90 on: April 02, 2012, 12:00:57 pm »

Here is one other alternative Muon2. No change in the KS-02 partisan numbers however. Do you like this one better?  The negative is that Elk County was previously in KS-04, so by moving it to KS-01, it is one more change element which seems to freak people out, even if the population numbers (like in Kingman), are de minimus.

Addendum: Oh this has another county chop, which sucks, so I don't think so. Do you agree?



I think the extra county split leads us away from this version. I'm still with the prior offering.
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« Reply #91 on: April 02, 2012, 12:08:13 pm »
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Here is the version that does away with the extra chop. It does make the Sumner County chop uglier, but does pick up the county seat for KS-04, which would please the incumbent. I suspects he thinks it is a commuter exurb, if he thinks Kingman is. You do know Sumner County produces the most wheat of any county in the U.S (or did when I read that 20 years or so ago, I assume. Just another bit of trivia for you. Smiley



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« Reply #92 on: April 02, 2012, 12:27:49 pm »

I think either plan is fine. If there's a strong political reason to choose one over the other you can go that way. Otherwise it seems like a wash.

I was concerned about chopping into the black community in KSC, KS, but your chop isn't too egregious in that regard, Muon2, and picks up a few Pub basis points, so I went for it. However, KS-04 I don't think going that far east is going to fly, taking in those two counties that are currently in KS-02, that are really part of its "core," (exclusive if SE KS, which we are excising, to shore it up in exchange for its sucking up Douglas County and now part of KSC). Whether KS-02 is Pub enough for everyone but the State Senate moderates with this approach remains to be seen. Heck, it may not be even for them.  It is 20 basis points less Pub than the State Senate plan and what a court might draw (see the map at the bottom).

Anyway, putting the KS-02 20 Pub basis points issue aside, here is my volley back to you. I did follow your approach to put the county south of Miami in KS-01, for the sake of preserving rectangular shapes, and because it fits in just fine with SE KS.




Here is the version that does away with the extra chop. It does make the Sumner County chop uglier, but does pick up the county seat for KS-04, which would please the incumbent. I suspects he thinks it is a commuter exurb, if he thinks Kingman is. You do know Sumner County produces the most wheat of any county in the U.S (or did when I read that 20 years or so ago, I assume. Just another bit of trivia for you. Smiley




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« Reply #93 on: April 02, 2012, 12:52:59 pm »
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I think I will go with this then - yet another version. Tongue  It just "feels" right, minimizing the wanderings of KS-04.



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« Reply #94 on: April 02, 2012, 01:00:14 pm »
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I've known about that Minneapolis, KS for awhile, what made things even more amusing for me at the time is there is also a Mankato, KS, and it's not too far from Minneapolis, the distance is actually comparable to the distance between the Minnesota Mankato and Minneapolis. Of course Mankato, KS is north of Minneapolis, KS, unlike in the Minnesota version.
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« Reply #95 on: April 02, 2012, 01:41:38 pm »
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Just had a go for a bit of fun. Using Daves Redistricting is rather time-consuming though. Is there a way of selecting whole counties at a time? And what are the size restraints? Is +/- 142 close enough?
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« Reply #96 on: April 02, 2012, 01:45:49 pm »
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Just had a go for a bit of fun. Using Daves Redistricting is rather time-consuming though. Is there a way of selecting whole counties at a time? And what are the size restraints? Is +/- 142 close enough?

No, put if you push down shift and "z" when the coloring feature is turned off (or control and z, or command and z, depending on your computer, you can draw a box, and color vast swaths of territory at once.  When done, do the check contiguity utility for each CD, because there are these tiny precincts that are very hard to see with the naked eye - sometimes impossible - and Kansas for example is loaded with them. Good luck.
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« Reply #97 on: April 02, 2012, 02:44:51 pm »
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Map:
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« Reply #98 on: April 02, 2012, 04:04:34 pm »
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Well, the rub is that way of doing it makes KS-02 "too" Dem, and it may make KS-03 even more Dem than it picking up the extra 11,000 in population that it needs by going south in Miami County (by 20-30 basis points or something).
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« Reply #99 on: April 02, 2012, 05:15:21 pm »
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This is where the layman comes up against al the bipartisan nitpicking that goes on. You'd think the people would be happy with districts that are logical from the point of view of keeping local areas in the same district, equalising population, and keeping counties intact.
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