NV-02 special election: 9/13

[Tender Branson]

Let's remember that Magellan gave incorrect names in their poll, under that circumstance, they can't win anything, since their poll was flawed.

Well, either that or it could have been a bunch of Democrats who called the blog to discredit the Magellan company ...

[DrScholl]

Well, either that or it could have been a bunch of Democrats who called the blog to discredit the Magellan company ...

That's a bit of a stretch. You have to admit that the poll was very lopsided. It's doubtful that Marshall will get less than 40% of the vote, it's not like she's some random candidate. PPP has the a better record of accuracy of Magellan, anyway.

[krazen1211]

Amodei is dominating the early voting.

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

Early Vote a Bad Omen for Harry Reid

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43835.html

(not that I'd bet any money on a Dem winning NV-2.)

Angle however did win NV-02, if I recall. The problem was NV-01.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Amodei is dominating the early voting.

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

Early Vote a Bad Omen for Harry Reid

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43835.html

(not that I'd bet any money on a Dem winning NV-2.)

Angle however did win NV-02, if I recall. The problem was NV-01.

Not by enough though (you need 59% to 63% of the vote there to be on target for a statewide win) and she probably lost the third district (which you need 49% to 52% for a statewide win).



Keep in mind that it is very important for Amodei to win Washoe or to tie it 50-50. If he loses it by a wider margin and only narrowly wins a squeaker district wide, he could have problems in 2012. This district currently contains heavily GOP exurbs in Clark county and the cow country, of which all of the former and about half (territory wise) of the latter, will be removed from the district and placed into one of the Clark seats (probably the third).

[BigSkyBob]

Amodei is dominating the early voting.

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

Early Vote a Bad Omen for Harry Reid

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43835.html

(not that I'd bet any money on a Dem winning NV-2.)

Angle however did win NV-02, if I recall. The problem was NV-01.

Not by enough though (you need 59% to 63% of the vote there to be on target for a statewide win) and she probably lost the third district (which you need 49% to 52% for a statewide win).



Keep in mind that it is very important for Amodei to win Washoe or to tie it 50-50. If he loses it by a wider margin and only narrowly wins a squeaker district wide, he could have problems in 2012. This district currently contains heavily GOP exurbs in Clark county and the cow country, of which all of the former and about half (territory wise) of the latter, will be removed from the district and placed into one of the Clark seats (probably the third).

Depending on how you define "cow country,"---CarsonCity is an urban area complete with suburbs--either very little of the "cow country" will be lost in redistricting,  or  your analysis misses the fact that Amodei can reasonably expect to win by a large margin in the Carson City area, even if he loses a chunk of Central Nevada. He won't have to finish near even in Washoe to win this election, or in 2012.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Please read my scenario again. If Amodei wins by 1% or less in the current district and then the new lines move it 2 to 3 maybe more points towards the democrats, he will be in trouble in 2012. He may not lose, but he will be in trouble. A lot of it depends on how the map is drawn, but unless the court goes crazy and draws a LV to Reno seat, NV-02 will become more Democratic then it is now, by virtue of geography and population distribution.

[BigSkyBob]

Please read my scenario again. If Amodei wins by 1% or less in the current district and then the new lines move it 2 to 3 maybe more points towards the democrats, he will be in trouble in 2012. He may not lose, but he will be in trouble. A lot of it depends on how the map is drawn, but unless the court goes crazy and draws a LV to Reno seat, NV-02 will become more Democratic then it is now, by virtue of geography and population distribution.

1) If Amodei wins by 1%, and the district shifts a few points, as the incumbent, he will remain the favorite.

2) If Amodei wins by 3%, he will not acheive anything near parity in Washoe county, which is the "scenario" you offered.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No that is not my scenario, at all. Try again, BSB.

[BigSkyBob]

No that is not my scenario, at all. Try again, BSB.

Here are you exact words:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, it isn't that important that Amodei wins close to 50% in Washoe county since he can reasonably expect to win by large marjorities in the Carson City suburbs, and, Northern rural Nevada, which will be in his district next time.

[Talleyrand]

No that is not my scenario, at all. Try again, BSB.

Here are you exact words:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, it isn't that important that Amodei wins close to 50% in Washoe county since he can reasonably expect to win by large marjorities in the Carson City suburbs, and, Northern rural Nevada, which will be in his district next time.

But heavily conservative and rural Central Nevada will be removed, right?

[BigSkyBob]

No that is not my scenario, at all. Try again, BSB.

Yes, it was your scenario. Perhaps you meant to "wide margin" rather than "wider margin?"

Whatever you meant to say, you are simply wrong in noting Amodei needs to break even in Washoe County.

[BigSkyBob]

No that is not my scenario, at all. Try again, BSB.

Here are you exact words:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, it isn't that important that Amodei wins close to 50% in Washoe county since he can reasonably expect to win by large marjorities in the Carson City suburbs, and, Northern rural Nevada, which will be in his district next time.

But heavily conservative and rural Central Nevada will be removed, right?

Here's the numbers. The district will be of about 675,000 people, of whom,  421,000 will be from Washoe County. That leaves 254,000 people in the rest of Northern Nevada. Since many of those counties with those 254,000 people are heavily Republican, Amodei can afford to lose Washoe County both now, and in 2012. He simply does need to "tie" Washoe County either in this special election, or 2012.

The loss of people in Central Nevada will be about 75,000. That is a small fraction of non-Washoe Northern Nevada.  [The district also loses parts of rural Clark County as well.]

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why is this so hard to grasp? I said if he loses Washoe by a WIDE MARGIN and wins district wide by 1% or less, he will have problems in 2012 because Washoe will make up more of the damn vote in 2012 then it does now. Yes incumbency will help, but only by a few points. And even if he wins narrowly again, my point is that he would have problems, not that he would loose.

If he wins Washoe or comes close, the Democrats will likely concede trying to contest the damn thing in favor of more favorable options.

[Tender Branson]

The NV Sec. of State has an overview of early and absentee voting in the district so far:

22,484 Republicans (54.5%)
13,814 Democrats (33.5%)
  4,944 Others (12.0%)

http://nvsos.gov/index.aspx?page=1012

Hard to see how Marshall can "win" with these numbers. She's probably not even within 15 points.

[Meeker]

I'm still a little puzzled why the DCCC was willing to play in NY-26 but not here.

[Brittain33]

I'm still a little puzzled why the DCCC was willing to play in NY-26 but not here.

That third party guy helped by attacking the R.

[Tender Branson]

First week of early voting is over and the breakdown is (excl. Clark County):

55% GOP
34% DEM
11% IND

In the first week of early voting in 2010, the breakdown was (excl. Clark County):

51% GOP
35% DEM
14% IND

...

Sharron Angle won NV-02 by 50-43 in 2010.

In 2010, early voters made up 60% of all voters.

So, if current trends continue Amodei should win this by about 10-15 points - unless election day voters are EXTREMELY Democratic.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, this looks over.

How many people are earlyvoting, though - as a percentage of how many did in 2010, say?

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, this looks over.

How many people are earlyvoting, though - as a percentage of how many did in 2010, say?

Excl. the small portion of NV-02's Clark County, the numbers after the first week (through Thursday) are roughly:

2010: 45.300
2011: 34.900

(In 2010, people were allowed to vote early on Sunday as well in Clark, Washoe and Nye - so I subtracted these numbers)

So, turnout is roughly 77% of the 2010 turnout so far.

[minionofmidas]

So quite decent, then.

Yah, forget it. It's over (presumably).

[Tender Branson]

So quite decent, then.

Yah, forget it. It's over (presumably).

Yeah, I estimate total turnout to be in the range of 170.000-200.000, with 185.000 being the most likely scenario.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The latest ads against Marshall were nuclear and with Obama in complete freefall I'm not surprised by the awful early voting numbers.

[Guderian]

It's time for PPP to squirt out Amodei by 10 poll to remain amazingly accurate.

[Holmes]

So this is a mandate for Republicans, right? Actually winning a special election in a Republican district?

[Brittain33]

Do you remember when Heath Shuler's win in 2006 meant the whole election was a mandate for conservatives? People will spin anything.