States most likely to flip to the Republicans?

[bullmoose88]

Now here's a question...as Pennsylvania goes, building an electoral coalition for the Reps...are SW PA and the philly burbs almost mutually exclusive?

[Misoir]

States which could flip from Democrat to Republican are as follows:

Indiana
New Hampshire
Nevada
Ohio
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Florida

[Kevin]

OH is distinctly more GOP than PA, and has been since rocks cooled. And Ohio has more of West Virginia in it (as it were), than PA does (including a lot of mountain Pubbies from Kentucky that live in the Cincinnati area, the one metro area where Jews tend to, or did, vote Pubbie).  And OH does not have large swaths of suburban areas appending a big liberal city trending Dem.  PA has the Philly suburbs. 

Which is funny, since the Philly Burbs used to be one of the big/essential building blocks to a Republican's vote in the commonwealth up until about 1988-1992.

The Republicans have a fair shot of at least capturing a couple of the suburban counties...its not a more likely than not situation...but entirely feasible that the Reps could recapture Chester Co, and possibly Bucks County.  Those two alone are unlikely to give them the commonwealth...unless they're also indicative of a resurgence in the rest of the burbs (and the trend out west has held up).

Bucks is far more republican friendly than either Montco or Delaware county, the latter being one of the traditional "former" homes of Republicanism in PA. 

I mean looking at the  2008 election results in Eastern Pennsylvania, I think it's entirely possible for the Republicans to also flip Northhampton, Leigh, Monroe, and Luzerne counties as someone like Romney or Huntsman would appeal there. However, in terms of SW PA I'm worried some counties there could flip back to Obama, but the anointed one's reputation amongst white working class voters now is even worse then it was in 2008. 

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

In this order IMO:

Indiana- first to go for GOP regardless of nominee except Romney who would lose it
New Hampshire- Anyone but Santorum would flip
North Carolina- I see it flipping but a moderate could lose it
Florida/New Jersey/Virginia- Given Obama's pro-Arab lean I see the Jewish vote becoming a game changer
Nevada- If Ron Paul or Gary Johnson are the nominee this will be a lock
Colorado/Ohio/Missouri/PA/Iowa- If unemployment numbers overall don't change or get worse they all flip
Minneasota= game over
Conneticut

[sg0508]

Curious as to why any of you think NH is switching so fast.  This isn't NH of the 1980s anymore and had it not been for Nader in 2000, Gore likely wins it.

[Alaska Thunderfvck]

Curious as to why any of you think NH is switching so fast.  This isn't NH of the 1980s anymore and had it not been for Nader in 2000, Gore likely wins it.

Romney seems to be polling very well in NH as of right now, so Republicans are having a joygasam for the moment. Once the campagin actually starts up though, it'll come back.

[hfred]

Washington (would be before NJ but for King County shenanigans)

King county shenanigans? I'm a Washington republican and even I don't think voting irregularities in King county are a significant problem. The fact is we lose elections because we have done a lousy job appealing to the Puget Sound region and not because of voting irregularities in King county.

[sg0508]

Washington (would be before NJ but for King County shenanigans)

King county shenanigans? I'm a Washington republican and even I don't think voting irregularities in King county are a significant problem. The fact is we lose elections because we have done a lousy job appealing to the Puget Sound region and not because of voting irregularities in King county.

The Slade Gorton tactic of "the rest of the state and screw King County" doesn't work there anymore.  The state has changed

[Keystone Phil]

Now here's a question...as Pennsylvania goes, building an electoral coalition for the Reps...are SW PA and the philly burbs almost mutually exclusive?

It's all the in the delivery. Follow the Toomey model and you win.

[anvi]

Now here's a question...as Pennsylvania goes, building an electoral coalition for the Reps...are SW PA and the philly burbs almost mutually exclusive?

Hard to say, depends on the candidate.  Clinton, Gore and Kerry had much more play in Western PA than they did in the burbs west of Philly.  Obama had better results in the burbs west of Philly than he did in western PA outside of Allegheny.  What happens if the GOP cracks 20% in Philly and wins Chester but loses Bucks? 

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Now here's a question...as Pennsylvania goes, building an electoral coalition for the Reps...are SW PA and the philly burbs almost mutually exclusive?

Not against Obama, they aren't. I could conceivably see Romney overperforming in the Philly burbs and still holding down Pennsyltucky by the virtue that he isn't Obama. In otherwords, following the Toomey model makes sense. Although I'd expect Romney to do better in Fayette, Greene and Washington County. Obama's approval ratings there are horrendous, even compared to his weak election result.

[Keystone Phil]

What happens if the GOP cracks 20% in Philly and wins Chester but loses Bucks? 

That probably wouldn't happen but if it did, I'm assuming we'd just barely lose Bucks and it would mean a win statewide. Cracking 20% in Philly is a huge blow for any Democrat running statewide. It's essentially game over at that point.

[freepcrusher]

Pat Tumor = bad example. This isn't 2010.

[Keystone Phil]

Pat Tumor = bad example. This isn't 2010.

It not being 2010 doesn't mean his formula for uniting very different types of voters is worthless.

Please understand the topic and point being made before you post. Thanks.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Let's deal with one state and one candidate: Florida with Bachmann.

One ordinarily expects (at least) Cuban-Americans to vote for just any Republican -- but the Obama campaign can associate Michelle Bachmann with contempt for human rights, a salient feature of someone whom Cuban-Americans have cause to hate:

FIDEL CASTRO

Dude, quit crack. NOW.

[sg0508]

Pat Tumor = bad example. This isn't 2010.

It not being 2010 doesn't mean his formula for uniting very different types of voters is worthless.

Please understand the topic and point being made before you post. Thanks.

It's probably not a good idea to compare the mid-term strategy though with the general considering that if that race happened in 2012 (with the same political environment), Toomey probably loses as the number of democrats that would have showed up would have exceeded the increase in GOP voters.

[Secretary Polnut]

Obama's most-vulnerable...

Indiana
North Carolina
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Nevada
New Hampshire

... the dynamics are clearly different to 2008, therefore the Dems cannot get too hopeful, but they will also be different to 2010... so the GOP cannot be too confident either.

[Keystone Phil]

Pat Tumor = bad example. This isn't 2010.

It not being 2010 doesn't mean his formula for uniting very different types of voters is worthless.

Please understand the topic and point being made before you post. Thanks.

It's probably not a good idea to compare the mid-term strategy though with the general considering that if that race happened in 2012 (with the same political environment), Toomey probably loses as the number of democrats that would have showed up would have exceeded the increase in GOP voters.

...

Implementing a strategy that appealed to a broad group of voters, not narrowly focused on the base, has nothing to do with what the result would have been if it was a Presidential election year. If the strategy was to just appeal to the Republican base, you'd have a point. That wasn't the strategy. I've made that clear. You and others keep talking about the result in a different environment, not the strategy. You're comparing apples and oranges.