Some final thoughts on 2012 ROC elections. As I mentioned before in 2008 and just like the ROC election of 2008, this election is a reflection of the partisan divisions of what I call "System of 2000."
See the last post of
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=67360.30 where I outline this. It mostly comes down to urban/rural divide and ethnic identify politics. Pan-Blue are getting releatively stronger in urban areas and relatively weaker in rural areas. Looking at 2000 versus 2012 pan-blue vote and swings we get
2000
59.10% 14.64% 26.26%
Region Total Urban Township Rural
Greater Jinmen 96.64% N/A 96.12% 97.58%
Hualian County 78.19% 74.83% 80.06% 79.64%
Taidong County 76.55% 71.83% 82.60% 80.18%
Miaoli County 71.97% 77.07% 66.57% 79.33%
Greater Hsintsu 69.21% 65.73% 72.42% 74.68%
Taoyuan County 66.10% 67.74% 64.88% 63.36%
Greater Taipei 62.70% 62.64% 64.19% 62.44%
Naotou County 65.22% 68.25% 63.09% 66.52%
Greater Taichung 62.86% 62.26% 62.94% 64.12%
Penghu County 62.94% 64.58% N/A 60.44%
Changhwa County 59.57% 61.29% 60.23% 58.38%
Yilan County 52.69% 57.34% 55.26% 49.13%
Greater Kaoshiung 53.23% 54.05% 55.69% 50.61%
Pingdong County 53.34% 57.81% 51.08% 52.17%
Yunlin County 52.72% 58.42% 52.25% 51.53%
Greater Jiayi 51.01% 51.81% 53.08% 50.03%
Greater Tainan 48.96% 53.27% 41.92% 45.13%
Total 60.07% 61.03% 60.12% 57.87%
2012
60.81% 14.14% 25.05%
Region Total Urban Township Rural
Greater Jinmen 91.80% N/A 91.87% 91.70%
Hualian County 74.06% 72.68% 73.28% 75.02%
Taidong County 69.50% 66.34% 74.62% 72.14%
Miaoli County 66.82% 74.46% 61.86% 72.51%
Greater Hsintsu 65.24% 61.86% 70.43% 70.11%
Taoyuan County 60.15% 62.26% 59.95% 56.04%
Greater Taipei 58.41% 58.80% 56.65% 54.13%
Naotou County 57.63% 60.33% 56.84% 57.11%
Greater Taichung 55.32% 56.18% 54.12% 53.88%
Penghu County 54.35% 56.42% N/A 50.88%
Changhwa County 53.51% 56.53% 54.34% 51.55%
Yilan County 47.47% 53.38% 49.82% 43.48%
Greater Kaoshiung 46.58% 48.39% 47.69% 41.62%
Pingdong County 44.87% 51.98% 43.00% 42.45%
Yunlin County 44.19% 54.34% 44.35% 40.98%
Greater Jiayi 43.88% 47.07% 43.83% 41.16%
Greater Tainan 42.28% 46.46% 35.48% 37.51%
Total 54.37% 56.29% 54.02% 49.90%
00 to 12 swing
Region total del Urban del town del rural del
Greater Jinmen -4.83% N/A -4.25% -5.89%
Hualian County -4.13% -2.15% -6.78% -4.61%
Taidong County -7.06% -5.49% -7.98% -8.04%
Miaoli County -5.15% -2.60% -4.70% -6.83%
Greater Hsintsu -3.96% -3.87% -2.00% -4.57%
Taoyuan County -5.95% -5.48% -4.93% -7.31%
Greater Taipei -4.30% -3.84% -7.54% -8.31%
Naotou County -7.58% -7.92% -6.25% -9.42%
Greater Taichung -7.54% -6.08% -8.81% -10.25%
Penghu County -8.60% -8.16% N/A -9.56%
Changhwa County -6.06% -4.76% -5.89% -6.83%
Yilan County -5.22% -3.96% -5.43% -5.65%
Greater Kaoshiung -6.66% -5.65% -8.00% -8.99%
Pingdong County -8.48% -5.83% -8.08% -9.72%
Yunlin County -8.53% -4.09% -7.90% -10.55%
Greater Jiayi -7.13% -4.73% -9.25% -8.87%
Greater Tainan -6.68% -6.81% -6.44% -7.62%
Total -5.70% -4.74% -6.10% -7.97%
The trend of Pan-Blues gaining relatively in urban areas since 2000 which itself was a realigning election of Blue strength in urban areas and weakness in rural areas have continued. What is bad for Pan-Greens is that the % of the vote that is in urban areas are going up and rural areas down.