UK General Discussion

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah, if the AV referendum was held now, the Tories wouldn't be so harsh about it...

True. There will be a great many seats in 2015 where (Tory+UKIP)>>Labour

[Leftbehind]

Dodged a bullet as far as I'm concerned. If and when the Right ever do become converts to the cause of electoral reform*, I'll be glad that AV's dead and buried as an option, so they'll have to offer something which doesn't just allow them to use other parties voters as ammunition (meanwhile rewarding those parties with no extra seats).  

*which I'm reasonably optimistic might happen if we're entering 4 party politics for a sustained period, and one which overwhelmingly hinders the Right's chance of governing.

[DC Al Fine]

Dodged a bullet as far as I'm concerned. If and when the Right ever do become converts to the cause of electoral reform*, I'll be glad that AV's dead and buried as an option, so they'll have to offer something which doesn't just allow them to use other parties voters as ammunition (meanwhile rewarding those parties with no extra seats).  

*which I'm reasonably optimistic might happen if we're entering 4 party politics for a sustained period, and one which overwhelmingly hinders the Right's chance of governing.

MMP

[You kip if you want to...]

Dodged a bullet as far as I'm concerned. If and when the Right ever do become converts to the cause of electoral reform*, I'll be glad that AV's dead and buried as an option, so they'll have to offer something which doesn't just allow them to use other parties voters as ammunition (meanwhile rewarding those parties with no extra seats).  

*which I'm reasonably optimistic might happen if we're entering 4 party politics for a sustained period, and one which overwhelmingly hinders the Right's chance of governing.

MMP

Yeah, AV deserved the kicking it got as anyone registered on a site like this should recognise.

MMP or AV+ on the other hand...

[Siloch]

I am not a tory btw (I really couldn't care less what neo-liberal party rules the UK) but the UKIP split is not just bad news for the tories, UKIP are attracting voters from all the parties for example in Rotherham the Labour vote increased by 1.62%, yet the Liberal Democrat vote declined by 13.87% so the idea that Liberal Democrats are naturally swinging to Labour across the board is not correct.

I stand by my opinion, that yes there will be Labour gains in the next election and yes they have a good chance of entering government but it will be with the Liberal Democrats, they will not get a majority no party will, the UKIP surge wont last long either, remember there was a BNP surge in Labour seats during the mid 2000s, nothing came of that. When it comes down to it, you vote for Labour or the Tories or against such.

[You kip if you want to...]

I am not a tory btw (I really couldn't care less what neo-liberal party rules the UK) but the UKIP split is not just bad news for the tories, UKIP are attracting voters from all the parties for example in Rotherham the Labour vote increased by 1.62%, yet the Liberal Democrat vote declined by 13.87% so the idea that Liberal Democrats are naturally swinging to Labour across the board is not correct.

I stand by my opinion, that yes there will be Labour gains in the next election and yes they have a good chance of entering government but it will be with the Liberal Democrats, they will not get a majority no party will, the UKIP surge wont last long either, remember there was a BNP surge in Labour seats during the mid 2000s, nothing came of that. When it comes down to it, you vote for Labour or the Tories or against such.

True, but with the Liberals in such decline, there'll be less space in terms of seats for there to be a hung parliament. For that to happen, you need strong non-Lab/Con force(s) actually winning seats.

[Silent Hunter]

The Labour vote did decline in Eastleigh, so after 3 years of "brutal cuts" as Labour say, they failed to increse their number of supporters, that is pathetic.

Eastleigh Labour vote
2010 - 5,153
2013 - 4,088

Labour is in for a 1992 style shock, not a 1983 style win.

I mean you guys are suggesting that Lib Dem voters will naturally swing to Labour, where did that happen in Eastleigh, lol it didn't.

It's a by-election in a seat Labour hasn't gotten more than 30% of the vote since 1974, so I think you're in danger of drawing too big a conclusion.

[Siloch]

People need to read the whole conversation before they comment. Eastleigh is not the only seat that Liberal Democrats did not swing heavily to Labour, Rotherham is another.

[You kip if you want to...]

People need to read the whole conversation before they comment. Eastleigh is not the only seat that Liberal Democrats did not swing heavily to Labour, Rotherham is another.

While we're drawing such conclusions, I can only assume George Galloway'll win a landslide for Respect in 2015.

[Siloch]

I can only assume George Galloway'll win a landslide for Respect in 2015.

I respect Galloway, he is at least not one of these middle ground boring U-turners that make up 90% of Westminster.

[Leftbehind]

I am not a tory btw (I really couldn't care less what neo-liberal party rules the UK) but the UKIP split is not just bad news for the tories, UKIP are attracting voters from all the parties for example in Rotherham the Labour vote increased by 1.62%, yet the Liberal Democrat vote declined by 13.87% so the idea that Liberal Democrats are naturally swinging to Labour across the board is not correct.

I think that rather ignores 1) that the Conservatives also collapsed in Rotherham and 2) Respect weren't far off surging to third place there. There is little evidence that I've seen to suggest that the UKIP momentum is hitting all three parties equally - more akin to SDP attracting a minority of Tory voters (mostly tactical) but hitting Labour far far harder.  You only need to look at opinion polls and the rise of UKIP to see that whilst Labour have largely remained firm the Tories have plunged to figures that aren't competitive.

Actually, here we are, new Yougov profiling of those polled who said they'd vote UKIP at the next election:

60% are former Tories
15% are former Liberals
12% were already UKIP
7% are former Labour
6% from elsewhere.

Pretty conclusive in my opinion.

I stand by my opinion, that yes there will be Labour gains in the next election and yes they have a good chance of entering government but it will be with the Liberal Democrats, they will not get a majority no party will, the UKIP surge wont last long either, remember there was a BNP surge in Labour seats during the mid 2000s, nothing came of that. When it comes down to it, you vote for Labour or the Tories or against such.

Well sure, if UKIP return 'home' to Tories in time for the election, then things may be narrower, but even then Labour's leads in most polls are greater than the UKIP figures, and they won't all go Tory (3%, remember, were already UKIP voters in 2010 - can't imagine they'd get less than that), so if Labour hold on to their voters then even a re-uniting of the Right wouldn't stop what is now a re-unified Left.

[YL]

A few cherries being picked in this discussion, I think.

Here are the changes in the Labour share in all by-elections (except Belfast W of course) this parliament:
Oldham E & Saddleworth +10.2
Barnsley C +13.5
Leicester S +12.2
Inverclyde -2.2
Feltham & Heston +10.8
Bradford W -20.3
Manchester C +16.4
Corby +9.8
Cardiff S & Penarth +8.4
Rotherham +1.8
Middlesbrough +14.6
Croydon N +8.7
Eastleigh +0.2

Now, most of those are in seats which aren't very similar to those which are going to decide how many Labour MPs there are in the next Parliament, either because Labour has no chance even in a landslide or they're basically safe.  The only real exceptions to that are Oldham E & Saddleworth, which was an ultra-marginal in 2010, Bradford West, which is in a class of its own, and Corby.

Sort of on that topic, who do people think will win Bradford West in the next General Election?

[afleitch]

I am willing to bet that UKIP will have precisely zero MP's returned at the 2015 General Election.

[Leftbehind]

Well it was never a question of how many seats they'd win (if any), it's how they'll impact other parties'.

[Leftbehind]

lol at the Liberals.

link.

[You kip if you want to...]

Cameron telling a stinker at PMQs. Apparently he thinks parents with disabled kids are exempt from the bedroom tax... when they're not (just those who need overnight care).

How can he put through policies like this which he doesn't even understand himself?

[Insula Dei]

Nice article about something I knew nothing about:

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v35/n05/michael-grayshott/short-cuts

[DC Al Fine]

Sort of on that topic, who do people think will win Bradford West in the next General Election?

Galloway marginally.

[Silent Hunter]

Vicky Pryce convicted after retrial - facing prison time

[You kip if you want to...]

Sort of on that topic, who do people think will win Bradford West in the next General Election?

Galloway marginally.

Yeah, it's Galloway's to lose. Definitely has more chance of getting himself rooted in than he did in Bethnal Green.

[You kip if you want to...]

In reference to the Eastleigh conversation, Smithson's helpfully posted the 26 seats Labour need to become the largest party...



Keep in mind that the swing they got in target 22 was 12.7%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It looks as though Daw Mill - the last deep pit in the West Midlands - is done. It'd been under threat for a while anyway (for complicated reasons that had little to do with productivity) but there's now a huge fire underground and that's probably that. Most of the workforce will lose their jobs even if not though.

[YL]

Ashcroft has produced another big (sample size over 20,000) poll, with a focus on "What are the Liberal Democrats for?"

Headline voting intention: Lab 40, Con 32, UKIP 12, LD 9.

People who voted Lib Dem in 2010: LD 38, Lab 35, Con 11, UKIP 9, Green 5.
(The lower figures in the graphic on the web page include don't knows etc.)

Preferred government: Lab 39, Con 30, Lab/LD coalition 18, Con/LD coalition 13
(Among current LD voters: Con/LD 43, Lab/LD 38, Lab 12, Con
(Among 2010 LD voters: Lab 35, Lab/LD 28, Con/LD 23, Con 15)
(Personally, I think I'd still answer this Lab/LD.)

There's a lot more stuff in the tables.

[You kip if you want to...]

Backbenchers saying it's Osbourne churning out the Theresa May/Phil Hammond stuff.

Budget day's gonna be fun this year.

[Silent Hunter]

Budget day's gonna be fun this year.

Especially with the PCS strike.