Could Ron Paul actually win the GOP nomination?

[Korwinist]

Isn't there some rule about needing to win 5 states to be considered for nomination?  And in this case, does "winning" a state just mean getting the most delegates, regardless off how the state voted?

He needs a plurality of delegates from a given state, he doesn't have to necessarily win the straw poll.

Whether it counts as a "Paul win" or not depends on the state rules though. Minnesota, for example, is a clearcut Paul win, the same applying to states with mostly unbound delegates (that'd be Minnesota, Iowa, Maine for sure to him, possibly Washington depending on how well he did/does, and possibly Louisiana and Massachusetts depending on how the rules are dealt with there). Nevada, on the other hand, is considered "Romney" despite the fact that almost the entire delegate slate is filled with Paul backers who will look for whatever out they can on the matter (in other words, abstaining from the first round of voting).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Short answer: no. Long answer: No, but he can seize control of the party apparatus and decide the policy planks.

Romney has enough loony positions to defend without stuff like "return to the gold standard" and "abolish the fed" being party planks.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Short answer: no. Long answer: No, but he can seize control of the party apparatus and decide the policy planks.

It's nice to see some members on this forum still have a sense of humor.

[Purch]

So basically if Ron Paul won you'd have a civil war within the party between the true republicans who follow the platform of the old republican party (The Non-intervention and fiscally responsibility ones) vs the Neo-cons who believe we have enough money to sustain our  agressive foreign policy whiles we're 15 trillion dollars in debt.

Might be the best way to return republicans back to their roots and disconnect them from post-9/11 paranoia .

[Emperor SJoyce]

Short answer: no. Long answer: No, but he can seize control of the party apparatus and decide the policy planks.

It's nice to see some members on this forum still have a sense of humor.

I fail to see any humor in that statement. Paul supporters have already begun seizing control of the party apparatus in states like Alaska, Maine, Nevada, and others, and I could see Paul delegates voting for Romney in exchange for putting in a few of their favored policies, even if they're contrary to Mitt's previous positions; it's sorta like an Etch-a-Sketch, ya know?

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Could he?  Yes.  But the chances are much smaller than what the RP people are saying.

If there's any chance he could, then his chances cannot be much smaller than what the RP people are saying.

I had a guy argue with me that there's a 50:50 chance because there are 2 candidates left.  I explained some basic statistics to him and also informed him that there are more than 2 candidates still in the race.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Could he?  Yes.  But the chances are much smaller than what the RP people are saying.

If there's any chance he could, then his chances cannot be much smaller than what the RP people are saying.

I had a guy argue with me that there's a 50:50 chance because there are 2 candidates left.  I explained some basic statistics to him and also informed him that there are more than 2 candidates still in the race.

Fred Karger LOL.

[Joe Republic]

There are only 380 candidates left in the race.

[Emperor SJoyce]

There are only 380 candidates left in the race.

Including President Emperor Caesar.

[King]

If Ron Paul and his followers do not make a national news headline during convention week, all Paultards should be permabanned for wasting the Atlas Forum's time with their ineffective movement.

One headline is all they need.  He doesn't have to win the nomination.  Put marijuana legalization in the platform.   Boo Romney during his acceptance speech.  Reject the vice presidential choice in favor of Rand Paul.  Anything.  Just do something.

[ChairmanSanchez]

If Ron Paul and his followers do not make a national news headline during convention week, all Paultards should be permabanned for wasting the Atlas Forum's time with their ineffective movement.

One headline is all they need.  He doesn't have to win the nomination.  Put marijuana legalization in the platform.   Boo Romney during his acceptance speech.  Reject the vice presidential choice in favor of Rand Paul.  Anything.  Just do something.

I have an idea....

WERE GONNA BURN DOWN THE FEDERAL EXPRESS!

(If, for whatever reason, this is seen as a threat, its really a South Park joke)

[CathKhan]

So basically if Ron Paul won you'd have a civil war within the party between the true republicans who follow the platform of the old republican party (The Non-intervention and fiscally responsibility ones) vs the Neo-cons who believe we have enough money to sustain our  agressive foreign policy whiles we're 15 trillion dollars in debt.

Might be the best way to return republicans back to their roots and disconnect them from post-9/11 paranoia .

From what I recall, Libertarianism is hardly the "original" form of the GOP. They supported government projects such as a massive trans-continental railroad, government control if personal lives through prohibition, & of course, imperialism. We should stop pretending the Republicans started ff as some great libertarian or paleo-conservative force in the 1860's.

[ajb]

The fact that Romney is struggling to keep control of the nominations process even after effectively winning the nomination says a lot about the successes his campaign has had in getting the grassroots involved in the campaign. This will probably be a bigger problem come November than any embarrassment Ron Paul serves up at the convention.

[Beet]

The Paul forces are planning to take control of the Idaho state convention on June 22 to overturn the results of this Spring's caucus there. With all 32 of Idaho's delegates, I estimate that, up until May 1, the Paul forces have 361 delegates, all anti-Romney forces have 742 delegates, and the pro-Romney forces have only 723 delegates.

Including the May 8 results, the Romney forces have 807 delegates, the Santorum+Gingrich bloc has 393 delegates, and Paul+Unc. has 397 delegates. However, this assumes that the results of the June 1-3 conventions in North Carolina and June 8-9 conventions in Indiana allocate Romney his deserved delegates from these regions.

If Paul seizes the North Carolina state convention, then he comes away with an additional 52 delegates. If he seizes Indiana's state convention, he comes away with all of the state's 46 delegates. In that case, there is no way Romney reaches 1,144 on the first ballot.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

From what I recall, Libertarianism is hardly the "original" form of the GOP. They supported government projects such as a massive trans-continental railroad, government control if personal lives through prohibition, & of course, imperialism. We should stop pretending the Republicans started ff as some great libertarian or paleo-conservative force in the 1860's.

Well of course, they always were a solidly "big government" party except arguably during the half-century c. 1920-1970.  Nevertheless, in comparison to the modern GOP the early version seems quite libertarian or paleo-conservative in many aspects.  It would of course be historically better to take over the Democrats, who were always the more libertarian until the early '30s, but that's not even remotely within the realm of possibility.

[So the Heroes Fall]

The Paul forces are planning to take control of the Idaho state convention on June 22 to overturn the results of this Spring's caucus there. With all 32 of Idaho's delegates, I estimate that, up until May 1, the Paul forces have 361 delegates, all anti-Romney forces have 742 delegates, and the pro-Romney forces have only 723 delegates.

Including the May 8 results, the Romney forces have 807 delegates, the Santorum+Gingrich bloc has 393 delegates, and Paul+Unc. has 397 delegates. However, this assumes that the results of the June 1-3 conventions in North Carolina and June 8-9 conventions in Indiana allocate Romney his deserved delegates from these regions.

If Paul seizes the North Carolina state convention, then he comes away with an additional 52 delegates. If he seizes Indiana's state convention, he comes away with all of the state's 46 delegates. In that case, there is no way Romney reaches 1,144 on the first ballot.

Of course this is assuming the Gingrich and Santorum delegates don't go to Romney. Granted there is evidence there are Paulites embedded within them as well, if Gingrich releases his delegates before the convention Paul will no doubt get a bunch out of Georgia.

[Big Wiggly Style]

BRTD, are you an ironic Paul supporter because he'd lose to Obama or do you legitimately like him?

[So the Heroes Fall]

BRTD, are you an ironic Paul supporter because he'd lose to Obama or do you legitimately like him?

Both. It's well known that Paul is my favorite Republican, he's better than many Democrats on some issues and certainly preferable to any of the joke "moderates" in the modern day GOP. Also God reached me and changed my heart through a die-hard Paulite.

However my support of this has little to do with Paul and rather with how much trouble and headaches his deranged cult is causing for the GOP.

[Dabeav]

BRTD, are you an ironic Paul supporter because he'd lose to Obama or do you legitimately like him?

Both. It's well known that Paul is my favorite Republican, he's better than many Democrats on some issues and certainly preferable to any of the joke "moderates" in the modern day GOP. Also God reached me and changed my heart through a die-hard Paulite.

However my support of this has little to do with Paul and rather with how much trouble and headaches his deranged cult is causing for the GOP.

The GOP went off the Neo-con end with Bush and Cheney.  Ron Paul is the fight to bring it back to it roots of small government and liberty.  Romney is just more of the same, Santorum was too.  BRTD, you're they only one left here from the old school that hasn't gone and turned into a total wackjob.  Phil was always well, Phil.  But there's others on the R side here...wow.  Talk about buying everything the mainstream tells them.

[Beet]

There's a new website here called http://thereal2012delegatecount.com and it's bad news for my man Romney.

1,660 delegates are TBD in upcoming state conventions.

Paul's been able to capture 75%-95% of delegates in conventions thus far. If he comes anything close to that in the state conventions coming up, he will be nominated on the first ballot.

According to the site, Romney only has 322 "hard" delegates (delegates from states that have finished their process). Paul swept 15/15 CD delegates in Virginia, and will likely sweep another 9 on May 19. That wipes out another Romney state.

And this site is being generous to Romney - for example, it assigns him 8 "hard" delegates in Alaska to just 6 for Paul, but someone on this forum noted awhile back that Paul actually has an absolute majority of the Alaska delegates in support, even though some of them are still bound to Romney. At the convention, they'll be abstaining the first round and going Paul on the second round.

If this site is to be believed, the only major states that the Paulites will not be able to hijack is Ohio.

I'm increasingly believing that Paul not only could, but will win the nomination.

[mondale84]

There's a new website here called http://thereal2012delegatecount.com and it's bad news for my man Romney.

1,660 delegates are TBD in upcoming state conventions.

Paul's been able to capture 75%-95% of delegates in conventions thus far. If he comes anything close to that in the state conventions coming up, he will be nominated on the first ballot.

According to the site, Romney only has 322 "hard" delegates (delegates from states that have finished their process). Paul swept 15/15 CD delegates in Virginia, and will likely sweep another 9 on May 19. That wipes out another Romney state.

And this site is being generous to Romney - for example, it assigns him 8 "hard" delegates in Alaska to just 6 for Paul, but someone on this forum noted awhile back that Paul actually has an absolute majority of the Alaska delegates in support, even though some of them are still bound to Romney. At the convention, they'll be abstaining the first round and going Paul on the second round.

If this site is to be believed, the only major states that the Paulites will not be able to hijack is Ohio.

I'm increasingly believing that Paul not only could, but will win the nomination.

LOL GOP

[True Federalist]

Unless the Paultards win the state party chairs in those states, I expect abstaining delegates will find that their votes end up being cast for Romney anyway.

[Beet]

Unless the Paultards win the state party chairs in those states, I expect abstaining delegates will find that their votes end up being cast for Romney anyway.

Right; as I noted in this thread. Romney's best shot (assuming he can't turn it around in getting his people out to the state conventions) may be depending on state party chairs to manage the vote on the floor. Even then it'd be remarkable if there were a majority Paul supporters on the convention floor as Romney was getting nominated.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I fail to see why the Paulites causing an epic embarrassment for the GOP and securing an even more easy re-election for Obama is something to be concerned about.

[Beet]

You have to understand that my #1 issue by far, far, far right now is economic issues (has been since 2008). Obviously I care about legalized pot and strip clubs and all that, but Paul (who btw, is a paleoconservative, not a libertarian, even though many of his supporters are libertarians) and I have a big, fundamental disagreement about core monetary issues. Compared to the difference between Obama and Romney - well, the Paulites are correct that it's much bigger. I think Paul, if he could implement his policies, would tank the economy straight into 15% unemployment, and even if he couldn't he would try. I also recognize that a lot of his ideas are deceptively appealing to people who don't understand economics (which is the 99.9999%). I don't want him to get a big platform.

Now, I really don't think he would win a general. His argument that he didn't author his newsletter for one, is incredibly weak, as are his various denials and changes in position over the years on whether he did or did not. An election with him in it would be incredibly racially polarizing. Also, his congressional record hasn't received scrutiny and if / when it does, I think a big chunk of moderates who currently don't know much about him except that he's a Republican who's libertarian on some social issues and liberal on foreign policy will fall away from him.

But his ideas on economics are so extreme - there's reason why he's rated as the most conservative congressman in decades - that I don't want him getting anywhere near a major party nomination.