Wisconsin Megathread

[Virginiá]

Before the 2018 elections new state boundaries have to be redrawn so there will be more Dems in office soon. Unless the state Republicans get their way, they're suing in court that they should be allowed a chance to redraw the boundaries again (aka to make them just as bad in different ways).

It is actually standard practice to let the legislature have a chance to redraw it at least once. Personally I think it's a insanely stupid idea, regardless of the legal (or other) justifications. If the legislature is still controlled entirely by the same party/most of same people who rigged the maps in the first place, they are just going to try and do it again. It happens almost every time, and when it doesn't, it's usually because they bickered between themselves so much that the court had to step in.

That being said, I believe the plaintiffs have submitted a range of ideas for the court to consider in regards to redrawing requirements to avoid giving the GOP a chance to gerrymander again. Not sure if any will be accepted, but maybe. If WIGOP gerrymanders again, there can always be another lawsuit immediately after 2018 elections (or possibly before).

Finally, it's not guaranteed that SCOTUS will even uphold this ruling. It's not just another gerrymandering case. This was ruled as unconstitutional partisan gerrymandering, and a scotus ruling could have wide implications. Hopefully Kennedy will cross over and support a new standard for partisan gerrymandering and we can begin to break up GOP maps across the country before summer 2020.

[Virginiá]

They don't have the power to ban him, and either krazen is diligently skirting the line on what is acceptable or no one is reporting the posts that would eventually get him banned.

I mean, if this was my forum he'd have been gone long ago because I know what he is doing, and in the long run he's a very clear net negative for the place whose sometimes decent contributions are consistently outweighed by his clear lack of respect/disdain for us. But that's not how the system works here, which I have to say isn't necessarily a bad thing. It can be frustrating like this but it can also prevent moderators/admins from getting carried away with pruning users as they seek to build a perfect forum environment, which in the end could sometimes be just as harmful for the forum.

[Virginiá]

Why this state can't just confine its elections to even numbered years with a spring primary and a November general election is beyond me.

Not even just Wisconsin, but many others with abysmal turnout as well. Elections should take place every 2 years on the same date, from federal to local races. Other setups only reduce the voice of the people and end up costing the state a lot more money.

The only real benefit to off-off-year elections like these that I can see is it gives us Atlas folk something to talk about

[Virginiá]

It is undeniable that a Constitutional Convention would be an easy way for a dictator to seize power. If you get, say, twenty-six delegates in your inner circle elected, assuming each state elects one delegate, you could easily become an absolute monarch.

But 3/4th of the states would have to ratify those amendments. It would take very wide consensus for a dictator to seize power.

[Virginiá]

Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016

Which states? I couldn't find any for Wisconsin/Michigan. There are ones for Illinois in like March and one for Iowa in August. The IA poll didn't seem that out of step with what you might expect then.

[Virginiá]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

Dems currently lead the generic legislative ballot 44-41, if that's any indication.

Which means nothing with the current gerrymander. In fact, Democrats had won the legislative race popular vote or lost it narrowly this whole time, and they're down dozens of seats anyways.

Unless SCOTUS rules against partisan gerrymandering and orders the Assembly map redrawn (the effects of which may not be felt until the 2020 election), the real action is in the state Senate, right? Is it conceivable that Democrats could build even a bare majority for themselves if 2018 and 2020 are both favorable to them?

Also, it's worth mentioning that if Democrats did have a wave-like performance in Wisconsin, it could knock out Walker and maybe a row office or two. That would ensure a more fair round of redistricting in 2021-2022.

[Virginiá]

Third terms are often difficult for voters to swallow.

The candidate is also much more likely to get caught in an unfavorable midterm environment, given that after 8 years, the White House usually changes hands (at least in the modern era). Walker has always had the benefit of a riled up Republican base, as he ran under Obama, whose midterms were just plain brutal to Democrats. The only debatable election was Walker's recall, which iirc was in June 2012, where Obama was still about as popular as he was in Nov 2010.

Now Walker has to run in a midterm under a deeply unpopular Republican president who has almost single-handedly riled up the Democratic Party in ways not seen since 2006, or perhaps even generations, depending on how you view the surge of activism and political engagement on the left. So I think it is fair to say that Walker is in for the toughest election of his career.

[Virginiá]

Well well well....turns out Scott Walker's Foxconn boondoggle will now cost $4.5 billion (up from $3 billion). Bye bye Walker

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Walker is such an idiot

From the party of fiscal responsibility, my dudes.

[Virginiá]

I know this isn't a thread for discussing the Senate race, but thoughts on this?

Mostly hype/hot air IMO, but kinda odd how much conservative groups are spending here.

Not much evidence that a few million in ads 10-11 months out from the election will have even a small impact on the result. They are just lighting money on fire. No one is going to remember any of this a month from now, let alone in November.

[Virginiá]

Early ads did pretty well at destroying the popularity of Pryor, Landrieu, Hagan, etc. in 2014.

Is there actual evidence that was the (or a major) reason for their defeat, or was it just the case that there were early ads, and it so happened that the race tightened later on, and they lost, so people just assumed it was because of the ads? Looking at the NC polls from 2014, Hagan's weakening in October through election day seems more consistent with an intensifying election where voters started making their minds up. Otherwise not much else seemed to change.

I don't think I've seen a single study that showed political ads really have much impact at all, at least on high-profile races, and when they do, it is short-term only, and wears off within a couple weeks. I used to put a lot more stock into them, but over the past 2 years, it has been really hard to find a very clear-cut instance where they played a notable part.

[Virginiá]

Crap I really want to see what Mondale originally wrote. Someone PM me please!

I only removed the tweet bbcode from some people's posts. I'm still unsure of what happens when a ton of people keep quoting the same embedded tweets causing it to load like 6-12 times every time a user views the page. Although it's different context, imgur blocked Atlas because people were using it a lot. I think Twitter alluded to similar viewing limits in their API documentation.

[Virginiá]

A "quasi-nonpartisan" Supreme Court race and local races don't change the fact that Walker's approval actually took a bounce early this year and as much as people hate him, they're not that motivated to turn him away. (Remember the stupidity that was the recall?)

A caveat being that his elections mostly took place under a Democratic president whose popularity was middling at best and comfortably unpopular at worst. Who is president at the time of these elections does in fact matter, even for gubernatorial elections. It's why Republicans won almost 1,000 legislative seats under Obama, and gained Govs offices in each midterm. It's why they so easily held the House for 6+ years and flipped the Senate to great effect in 2014. Walker has never seemed like a particularly overpowering candidate. He won comfortably - in two waves and a recall in 2012 (June, not November), but never blew his opponent out of the water. So what happens if November is as bad for Republicans as it was for Democrats in, say, 2010 or 2014?

My point being that I think maybe you aren't addressing the orange elephant in the room - a presidential elephant that is always in the room for every partisan (and sometimes even non-partisan) election this country has. 2018's Wisconsin gubernatorial election will not be based entirely on candidate quality, for better or worse.

[Virginiá]

I do recall seeing it mentioned that Walker/Republicans do want to risk Democrats reducing their majorities any further in case SCOTUS forces them to redraw their maps. They want as many seats as possible when/if that comes, in case anyone bucks leadership. I can't recall if that was an opinion or heard as actual reasoning from one or more Republican legislators.

[Virginiá]

I just love it when Republican politicians publicly speak out against Democratic efforts to fight Republican gerrymanders as some sinister scheme to rig the system in their favor.

They could just say nothing and not look like hypocrites. But nope, they have to chime in on everything, even their own corruption, and try to spit-shine it so they can act like they are honest and fair.

[Virginiá]

The seat she’s filling, was it previously held by a Repub or Dem?

Republican

[Virginiá]

First of all, he’s the incumbent and has had a long history of contrasting himself against the crime rates and ghettoes of Milwaukee as well as union workers in order to win over the suburbs. Second of all, Dems couldn’t even recall him during the nadir of his governorship. Third, thanks to the alt-right and Trump, Walker now looks more moderate.

It should be clear by now that this election cycle will be much worse for just about all Republicans than 2012 was. I mean, if you truly do not believe it will, then I don't even know what to say. Almost nothing that has happened since 2016 has been anything other than an example that a great many people are pissed off and are voting for anyone but Republicans. They don't care about contrasts.

Incumbents do have an advantage, but that is usually weakened in waves, and after 8 years, an incumbent's track record can also begin to turn against them if they are not popular. I dunno what Walker's current approvals are, but last I saw, they weren't through the roof. He went from unpopular to middling, which isn't exactly the biggest help in a bad election cycle.

[Virginiá]

!!!

Foxconn to cut back initial investment in $10bn Wisconsin plant

This'll roll over well.

The $10 billion investment is still the same but...:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So this reduces the local jobs effect, which arguably already wasn't worth the huge investment from Wisconsin.

Companies from abroad must love America for "investment." There are so many morally bankrupt politicians desperate to cling to power that they'll plow however much taxpayer money into subsidies and cash bribes to get JOBS JOBS JOBS, regardless of how useful/feasible the whole scheme is, or how much more efficient it would have been to just put the taxpayer money into more direct investments. And to sweeten the pot, American voters are so stupidly partisan that they'll rarely ever get rid of these worthless morons who make these deals in all but the worst situations, so these investments are safe !

At some point society needs to adjust the way we teach our economic system to children to factor in the politicians that funnel massive million/billion dollar bribes to corporations to generate mediocre jobs that pay less than what the public investment cost. It's become a major component of our broken system.

[Virginiá]

Since this went way over 2k, the last 20 pages has been merged with a newer megathread and this one is now locked.

New thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=302354.0