The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[paul718]

Kathleen Sebelius

This one is kind of "out there", though certainly not as far-fetched as Kamala Harris.  Sebelius was rumored to have been interested in a presidential run in the 2000s, but didn't run in 2008, possibly because of Hillary Clinton's candidacy.  She'll be 68 years old on election day 2016, just one year younger than HRC, which is kind of old for a first time presidential candidate.

I've always had the feeling that President Obama had big plans for Sebelius.  She would've made a better runningmate than Biden, but perhaps he thought she'd have a better profile heading HHS during monumental healthcare reform.  That is, of course, assuming he didn't anticipate so much backlash on Obamacare. 

[Ogre Mage]

In-depth profile of Secretary Clinton, with ample 2016 speculation:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/how-hillary-clintons-past-choices-predict-her-future/2012/11/25/32db2556-3026-11e2-ac4a-33b8b41fb531_story.html

[Mr. Morden]

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz has been too busy running for the US Senate to worry about making trips to Iowa or New Hampshire.  However, it's possible that he may run for president in '16, perhaps taking up the spot as the Hispanic candidate in the field if Rubio doesn't run.  While Rubio, Ryan, and others would have to give up their reelection bids if they win the 2016 GOP nomination (since running for the presidency while simultaneously running for a seat in Congress is presumably impractical) Cruz doesn't face that choice, as his seat isn't up until 2018.

So is there any evidence that Cruz is interested?  Just that he really wants you to know that he's eligible to serve as president, should that ever be an issue:

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/11/19/121119fa_fact_lizza?currentPage=all

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[BM]

Kathleen Sebelius

This one is kind of "out there", though certainly not as far-fetched as Kamala Harris.  Sebelius was rumored to have been interested in a presidential run in the 2000s, but didn't run in 2008, possibly because of Hillary Clinton's candidacy.  She'll be 68 years old on election day 2016, just one year younger than HRC, which is kind of old for a first time presidential candidate.

I've always had the feeling that President Obama had big plans for Sebelius.  She would've made a better runningmate than Biden, but perhaps he thought she'd have a better profile heading HHS during monumental healthcare reform.  That is, of course, assuming he didn't anticipate so much backlash on Obamacare. 

I wonder if Obama would have been scared in to picking her as his running mate if McCain picked Sarah Palin before Biden was announced.

[Ogre Mage]

From what I read, Obama was never in fear of the Palin nomination.  He correctly foresaw she would not be able to transform into a national candidate in so short amount of time -- "I don't care how talented she is, this is really a leap."

[exopolitician]

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz has been too busy running for the US Senate to worry about making trips to Iowa or New Hampshire.  However, it's possible that he may run for president in '16, perhaps taking up the spot as the Hispanic candidate in the field if Rubio doesn't run.  While Rubio, Ryan, and others would have to give up their reelection bids if they win the 2016 GOP nomination (since running for the presidency while simultaneously running for a seat in Congress is presumably impractical) Cruz doesn't face that choice, as his seat isn't up until 2018.

So is there any evidence that Cruz is interested?  Just that he really wants you to know that he's eligible to serve as president, should that ever be an issue:

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/11/19/121119fa_fact_lizza?currentPage=all

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Yuck, I hope not.

[Mr. Morden]

Tom Vilsack

Vilsack ran for the 2008 Democratic nomination for president for all of about two weeks before dropping out.  He's currently the Secretary of Agriculture, so he's obviously a bit constrained in terms of how openly he can lay the groundwork for future political office.  However, while ruling out another bid for governor, he has left the door open for a future run for president, from an interview with the Des Moines Register back in May:

http://www.twylah.com/food_democracy/tweets/199920924173139968

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[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Is Ted Cruz a birther? Just wondering.

[RogueBeaver]

Is Ted Cruz a birther? Just wondering.

No.

[Mr. Morden]

"Ted Cruz speech stokes 2016 speculation":

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/11/ted-cruz-speech-stokes-2016-speculation-84436.html

[Mr. Morden]

Scott Walker

Walker's already been elected Wisconsin governor twice, even though he's still in his first term!  It's unusual for a first term governor of a swing state to be dropping hints about interest in a presidential run when he still has to worry about reelection in two years, yet Walker has done exactly that.  In June, he refused to rule out a future presidential run:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=155318.0

And in September, he gave the keynote address at the New Hampshire GOP's convention in Derry:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=160255.0

In a story published last week, Politico name dropped Walker as a pol who "harbors national ambitions":

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/84110.html

Is Walker really interested in a run?  He insists in a new interview that he's not thinking about it:

http://wtaq.com/news/articles/2012/nov/26/governor-walker-insists-hes-not-thinking-about-2016-white-house-run/

but that hardly counts as a denial that he'll end up taking the plunge.  Of course, any potential campaign is complicated by the potential interest of fellow Wisconsinite Paul Ryan.  Ryan is the Cheesehead of the moment, and has significantly greater national name recognition and popularity among the national GOP.  If Ryan runs, Walker presumably opts out.  Walker is young enough, and can afford to wait.  But Ryan is not a certainty to run, so Walker might sieze the opportunity in '16 if Ryan opts out.

Rick Perry

Perry doesn't fit the normal profile of presidential candidates who fail to win the nomination but try again.  If you're a one time frontrunner who fails to win a single primary, you normally are embarrassed into slinking away from the national spotlight, but since Perry dropped out of the 2012 race, he's been hinting nonstop that he might run again in '16.  Just one week after dropping out, several Perry aides suggested that the man might try again:

http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/26/rick-perry-loyalists-hint-at-a-future-presidential-bid-blame-a-lack-of-time-for-candidate-stumbles/

Perry himself suggested that he was "leaning towards" a presidential run in 2016 back in April:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152379.0

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Ummmm……first of all, way to show your confidence in Romney's chances this year, by already talking about the possibility of an open GOP contest in '16 months before the '12 election.  Second of all, I should hope you'd be in the race before the summer of 2016, since all the primaries will be over by then!

If that wasn't enough to undercut Romney, Perry again floated the idea of running in '16 during the Republican National Convention:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158369.0

In October, Perry's legislative director seemed to confirm that Perry would run for reelection as governor:

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2014-statewide-elections/perry-adviser-says-governor-will-run-re-election/

but a spokesman quickly walked that back and insisted that there was no decision on whether Perry would run again for governor, again for president, both or neither.

After the election, Perry seemed to realize "Oh yeah, I have a day job.  Maybe I should stop talking about 2016 for a while".  So he insisted that he didn't want to talk about it, and said "“2016 is multiple lifetimes away":

http://www.statesman.com/news/news/perry-talk-of-2016-presidential-bid-premature/nS2hy/

And now, just a few days ago, Perry told the Rio Grande Guardian that he will "make an announcement about my future political plans" in July:

https://twitter.com/riogguardian/status/273550087131656192

So maybe that means that he's taking a break from 2016 speculation until July, and will then pick up where he left off.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich and Dole took over their respective houses of Congress following the 1994 midterms.  They often butted heads, but it looks like Gingrich might follow in Dole's footsteps by running for president at age 73:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165487.0

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Sorry, that's all I have on Gingrich.  AFAIK, he hasn't dropped any other hints.  To make up for how short my entry on Gingrich is, I direct you to the Political Kombat stage with Romney vs. Gingrich and Paul:

link

[Lief 🗽]

SHE'S IN!

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/in-the-loop/post/hillary-clinton-jokes-about-future-president/2012/11/30/962b7d94-3b08-11e2-a263-f0ebffed2f15_blog.html

[Paul Kemp]

SHE'S IN!

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/in-the-loop/post/hillary-clinton-jokes-about-future-president/2012/11/30/962b7d94-3b08-11e2-a263-f0ebffed2f15_blog.html

I must be missing something there...

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I don't see any strong hint there. I really don't care though. Can't say I have a strong feeling about what she'll do but I don't think it matters much. She's very popular now but those that think she'd be a slam dunk in 2016 are being foolish.

[SPC]

SHE'S IN!

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/in-the-loop/post/hillary-clinton-jokes-about-future-president/2012/11/30/962b7d94-3b08-11e2-a263-f0ebffed2f15_blog.html

Reminds me of Al Gore's "hint" during the 2006 Oscars.

[Mr. Morden]

One addendum to yesterday's post: In addition to Perry's frequent public speculation on a future presidential run, he also visited Iowa in August:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/08/perry-returning-to-iowa-131173.html

[Mr. Morden]

Mike Pence

Pence was the de facto leader of a significant branch of the conservative wing of the party within the House during the latter half of the 2000s.  He retired from the GOP House leadership at the end of 2010, and was widely expected to announce a run for either President or Governor.  Not to rehash the whole story (jmfcst can do that for you), but as he was preparing to announce his future political intentions, he kept talking about national issues rather than state issues, suggesting that his heart was really in a presidential race rather than a gubernatorial one:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128741.0

Nonetheless, Pence decided on a gubernatorial run, perhaps concluding that making a direct move from the House of Representatives to the White House was a leap too far.  Under this reading of his actions, he regards his governorship as a stepping stone to an eventual presidential run.  The question then is whether he thinks one term as governor is enough, or if he intends to wait until 2020.  Politico says that Pence "has expressed interest in running" in 2016:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3527577#msg3527577

so we'll have to wait and see.

Rick Santorum

Santorum has been dropping hints about his 2016 intentions, even if he hasn't quite reached the Martin O'Malley level of blatant 2016 politicking.  He dropped out of the 2012 presidential race in April, days after his daughter Bella was hospitalized with a serious medical condition. 

Then in July, he returned to Iowa for a two day "Thank You Iowa" tour:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=154804.0

One noteworthy aspect of the trip was the fact that the invitation thanked Iowans for their "continued" support:



Does "continued" support suggest he'll be asking for their support in a future run?

He later made a trip to Des Moines to appear at the Family Leadership Summit:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=154804.0

In the past week, Santorum has indicated that he's "open" to a 2016 presidential run in two separate interviews (one with The Weekly Standard and one with Piers Morgan):

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/26/santorum-im-open-to-2016-bid/?on.cnn=1

Sounds like Santorum is interested.  While I hate to say it, it should be mentioned that the health of Santorum's daughter could again be a factor in his decisions on his political future.  Hopefully, she'll be healthy enough that it will not be an issue.

Michele Bachmann

Since dropping out of the 2012 presidential race, Bachmann has been busy with her reelection campaign for her House seat.  With that out of the way now, Politico reports "Republican sources said Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) might want to fill the void on the religious right now".  But are these "Republican sources" suggesting that Bachmann herself has expressed interest in 2016, or just guessing that she might be interested?  Politico, why do you toy with us like this?

[Mr. Morden]

Bobby Jindal

Jindal visited Iowa back in November…….of 2008:

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2008/11/24/4431968-bobby-jindals-saturday-in-iowa?lite

At the time, thought to be a sign of interest in Jindal running for president in 2012.  Jindal of course passed on that chance, and put his ambitions on hold until 2016.

More recently, Jindal has visited Iowa several times in 2012, though initially he seemed to be doing it as part of the Romney VP audition process:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/240119-jindal-mcdonnell-to-campaign-for-romney-in-iowa

However, even after Jindal was out of the veepstakes, he kept going back to Iowa….joining Santorum in September on a social conservative bus tour to campaign against the Iowa Supreme Court justices who legalized gay marriage:

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/rick-santorum-bobby-jindal-join-bus-tour-iowa-143532910--election.html

Jindal then hit Iowa yet again in late October, first for a Romney campaign event, and then for the Scott Country Republican Party Reagan Dinner:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/jindal-heads-to-iowa-county-gop-dinner-137194.html?hp=l9

A day later, Jindal campaigned for Iowa GOP congressional candidate John Archer, and then followed that up with a trip to fellow early-ish primary state Florida's pro-life dinner fundraiser:

http://article.wn.com/view/2012/10/24/Jindal_on_the_road_in_Iowa_Florida_for_GOP_events_x/

That was all before the election.  Now that the 2012 election has passed, and Romney's defeat has cleared the way for an open GOP field in 2016, Jindal can *really* get started on the 2016 campaign.  He's been waging a media tour since Election Day, articulating his own vision for the party:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164788.0

Jindal doesn't face any of the logistical problems that potential candidates Paul, Rubio, and Ryan do, in terms of trying to run for president and reelection for their current jobs at the same time.  He's young and term limited out of his current job in 2015.  What else has he got to do if he doesn't run for president?  He's given every indication that running for president is exactly what he intends to do.


OK, I've done blurbs on quite a few Republicans in a row.  Time to take a bit of a break with these two Democrats:

Kirsten Gillibrand

As a young, female US Senator from New York, who occupies the seat previously held by Hillary Clinton, Gillibrand has been the subject of presidential speculation since the moment she was picked by then-Gov. Paterson in 2009.

Throughout 2012, Gillibrand has been publicly urging Hillary Clinton to run in 2016.  E.g.:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=151090.0

Of course, the cynical take on this is that by publicly urging on Clinton, Gillibrand creates the rationale for her own candidacy if Clinton declines to run.  (Not that she would ever put it this bluntly, but the rationale would be something like: "Well, I wanted Hillary to run.  But since she isn't, I should run, as I'm basically 'Hillary Clinton Jr.'")

Is the buzz surrounding Gillibrand a pure media invention, or has she been doing anything on her own to drive it?  Well, she does have two separate PACs:

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2012-10-14/news/34452915_1_clinton-and-cuomo-democratic-candidates-presidential-race

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Beyond that, Gillibrand raised eyebrows at this year's DNC when she was one of a handful of national pols who met with the Iowa delegation:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

That seems like a fairly clear indication that she has national ambitions.  OTOH, it doesn't automatically mean that she expects to fulfil those ambitions as early as 2016, nor does it necessarily mean that it would be done via a run for president.  It's possible that, instead, she intends to simply tease a presidential run in order to help boost her national profile, and put herself on the political map as a VP choice in '16.

More recently, Gillibrand has denied any national ambitions for 2016:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=163060.0

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As I note in that thread, that's a denial, but something of a weasel word denial.  Saying you "plan" to serve your full term is different from a Shermanesque denial that those plans will ever change.

Finally, it's worth noting that while Gillibrand's support of Clinton 2016 implies that Gillibrand herself will not run if Clinton does, it's somewhat less clear if she would be blocked by NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo.  It would be highly unusual for the junior senator from a state to launch a presidential campaign against the state's sitting governor, but never say never.  IMHO, if there turn out to be zero other women running on the Democratic side, then Gillibrand might see an opening that's too hard to resist.

Amy Klobuchar

Like Gillibrand, Klobuchar also met with the Iowa delegation at the DNC:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

declaring to the delegates "I can see Iowa from my porch".

Klobuchar was more active at the DNC than Gillibrand though, meeting with the South Carolina delegation as well.  As David Weigel described it:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/09/07/the_great_race_for_2016.html

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Later that month, Klobuchar took time out from her own non-competitive reelection race to do some campaigning in Iowa….for Christie Vilsack:

http://www.kimt.com/content/localnews/iowanews/story/Klobuchar-and-Vilsack-Tour-Francis-Lauer-Youth/7CWkrJsNDEOu7FitIiHoOw.cspx

More recently, Klobuchar was pressed on whether she had presidential ambitions by Chris Matthews, and she denied any interest:

http://www.minnpost.com/dc-dispatches/2012/11/klobuchar-says-no-early-2016-chatter

Matthews: Would you like to be president?
Klobuchar: I love being the Senator from Minnesota, that’s what I want to do. We have a great state, you should come and visit, Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Matthews: Was that an answer?  A yes or no?
Klobuchar: That was a no.

As in the case of Gillibrand, though, this is hardly the most Shermanesque denial ever, and doesn't really close the door.

[Lief 🗽]

Allen West

"And always remember, Abraham Lincoln only served one term in Congress, too." - Allen West, in an NPR interview.

[Meeker]

If you guys liked Herman Cain, wait until you see Morry Taylor. This is going to be great.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If you guys liked Herman Cain, wait until you see Morry Taylor. This is going to be great.

He will be the biggest joke in political history, hands down. Dan Quayle has a better shot at the 2016 nomination.

Anyway, Gary Johnson has said he will run again.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico runs a story on the 2016ers meeting with big money Super PAC donors:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/2016-contenders-courting-mega-donors-84497.html?hp=t1

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The story also mentions how many Democratic donors have a distaste for Super PACs, and speculates on the possibility that the 2016ers will have some sort of agreement not to use them during the primaries.

It also speculates on how the possibility of Hillary Clinton running might end up freezing the money on the Democratic side:

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[Mr. Morden]

Ken Cuccinelli

For the past 20 years (going back to Douglas Wilder), every single governor of Virginia has either run for president, or been the object of speculation suggesting that he might run for president.  The window of time it takes for this to happen seems to be shrinking, to the point that it's enveloped yet-to-be-VA Gov. Ken Cuccinelli, negative one years after he was elected.  Yes, Cuccinelli is still merely a candidate for VA governor.  However, he seems to already be taking it for granted that he'll win, as he began laying the groundwork for the move to the national stage with this trip to Iowa:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/virginia-politics/post/cuccinelli-to-headline-gop-dinner-in-iowa/2012/03/28/gIQA5jPDhS_blog.html

Maybe he can restrain himself from making more such trips until after he's already won his gubernatorial race.

Antonio Villaraigosa

Villaraigosa is taking the traditional path to the White House…….getting there from the office of Secretary of Transportation.

What?

Yes, Villaraigosa is rumored to be the leading candidate to replace Ray LaHood as Secretary of Transportation in Obama's second term:

http://www.planetizen.com/node/59345

So Villaraigosa will leave his job as Mayor of Los Angeles (he's term limited anyway), serve in Obama's Cabinet for two years, and then leave the Cabinet to begin his presidential campaign.

Really?  Well, maybe, yeah.  He was the keynote speaker at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Iowa this year:

http://www.scpr.org/blogs/politics/2012/10/19/10603/mayor-villaraigosa-heads-iowa-democratic-dinner/

That comes in addition to his active campaigning for Obama around the country this year.  Villaraigosa also met with the Iowa delegation at the convention this year, along with other potential 2016ers like Klobuchar, O'Malley, and Schweitzer:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

However, that visit may have just been a sign of the Iowa delegation's status, as Villaraigosa was the chairman of the convention.

Which reminds me, if Villaraigosa's campaign gets off the ground, expect this to go viral again:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST-eE4Ud7nw

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a story on Rubio's and Ryan's presidential ambitions, talking specifically about their duelling speeches coming up on Tuesday night at the Jack Kemp Foundation’s awards dinner:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/paul-ryan-and-marco-rubios-makeovers-84544.html?hp=t1

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Some of the most interesting tidbits about each prospective candidate:

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[Mr. Morden]

Brian Schweitzer

Schweitzer for president buzz started at least as far back as the 2008 DNC, when he won praise for his convention speech.  Since then, there've been a series of hints that have been dropped, suggesting that Schweitzer is interested.

One indication comes from the fact that he's a small state governor, yet has spoken out on foreign policy issues, including criticism of Obama's Afghanistan policy from the left:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/09/buzz-building-for-montana-gov-brian-schweitzer-in-2016

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Yes, you read that right.  Schweitzer is friends with a 114 year old man.  (Or 115 now if he's still alive, since that story is from last year.)  Maybe he should introduce him to Roberta McCain.

That article also notes that Schweitzer was already visiting early primary states IA, NH, SC, and FL……back in 2011.  Yes, you read that right as well.  Schweitzer started visiting early primary states 5 years before the presidential election he's running in.  That has to be a record.  He also met with both the Iowa and New Hampshire delegations at this year's DNC:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

What does he say publicly about a run?  Well, he won't confirm that he's going to run for president.  He just wants you to know that he won't run for Congress:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161958.0

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At times, he's thrown cold water on the idea of ever running for another office:

http://mtstreetfighter.com/has-brian-schweitzer-given-up-on-politics/

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But more recently, he's emphasized his love for IA and NH:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/12/02/montana-gov-schweitzer-stokes-2016-intrigue/

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Presumably, he won't definitively confirm or deny his candidacy for some time.  In the meantime, perhaps his supporters will keep entertaining us with ads like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCIFH0XHjyU&feature=player_embedded