The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

I'm thinking of using this thread as a reference guide for every clue about who's running and who isn't.  What I mean is, every time one of the potential candidates visits one of the early primary states, or starts a PAC, or is asked about whether they're going to run and gives an evasive answer or something like that, we'd link to the story here.  This would *not* preclude the option of having separated threads about each of those events as well, if people feel like having the separate thread.

For example, "Santorum organizing for 2016":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164914.0

That's certainly worth having its own thread.  So when a story like that comes out, someone starts the thread on that.  But then we'd also link to the story (and the discussion thread) here, since this would be a one stop reference guide for all such developments.  That way, you have one place where you can go, and browse through all the developments, to get a better picture of who's prepping for 2016.

What do you think?

[Mr. Morden]

I have insider information on the Democratic side.

Then post it here.

[Mr. Morden]

I have insider information on the Democratic side.

Then post it here.

No.

Then why did you tell us that you had it?

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I guess I'll start posting tidbits in this thread.....

Dispatch from New Hampshire:

http://www.newburyportnews.com/local/x2120603533/2016-primary-is-just-38-months-off

Hickenlooper "has started to make contact with locals".

Meanwhile, "Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Sen. Mario Rubio of Florida already have asked to be invited to Lincoln Day dinners, and only the serious or foolhardy volunteer to travel to New Hampshire in February."

[Mr. Morden]

OK, in addition to posting the current stuff, I'm going to go back and recap the evidence for and against various potential candidates running in 2016.  There are quite a few potential candidates out there, so I'll do this in stages, updating a couple of candidates at a time, in more or less random order.

Today, I'll recap the situation with two potential Democratic candidates:

Deval Patrick

Patrick is in his second term as governor of MA, and he says he's going to retire at the end of his term in 2014, and "return to the private sector":

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/deval-patrick-i-like-being-the-boss-but-2016-presidential-run-not-happening/

He's already ruled out running for president in 2016:

“If there is a time sometime later to come back and serve in public life, I hope I’m able to do that. Just not going to be in 2016,” he added.

OK, so that would seem to rule him out.  Except that there's a long history of politicians ruling out a run for president, and then going back and changing their minds.  Also, it should be noted that Patrick delivered the keynote address at a June 2012 meeting of the Iowa Democratic Party:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152933.0

and also wrote an op/ed in support of Obama's reelection for the Des Moines Register in August, just before the DNC:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/08/oh-look-its-deval-patrick-in-iowa-132687.html

Patrick is also rumored to be a top prospect for a second term Obama Cabinet post, most likely either Attorney General if Holder leaves, or Secretary of HHS if Sebelius leaves.  Of course, it would be possible to take a Cabinet spot for two years, and then leave the Cabinet to run for president.  If it's a high profile job like Attorney General, it could certain boost Patrick's national profile.

Jack Markell

Everyone knows about Joe Biden's presidential ambitions, but what about his fellow Delawarean, Delaware Gov. Jack Markell?  What, you don't remember the Jack Markell boomlet from September?  Here, I'll remind you.  This was a line in a Politco story, from their DNC coverage:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.msg3413015#msg3413015

"Gov. Jack Markell also may consider a White House run, according to a Democratic source."

AFAIK, that's been the extent of the Jack Markell buzz so far.  Maybe Markell will in fact run.  Or maybe he'll be the Dirk Kempthorne of the 2016 cycle.  Kempthorne was being mentioned as possibly interested in the 2012 GOP presidential nomination…..for all of about one week back in Jan. 2009:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0109/Kempthorne_2012.html

After that, we never heard from him again.  Will Markell be the Kempthorne 2012 of the 2016 race?  Or will he get really ambitious and decide to run, so that he can be the Jim Gilmore 2008 of the 2016 race?

[Mr. Morden]

Today's entry:

Paul Ryan

Ryan has obviously visited both Iowa and New Hampshire a number of times in recent months, but that doesn't mean the same thing for him as it does for others, since IA and NH are both swing states, and Ryan was the party's VP nominee.  (And before that, he was auditioning to be the party's VP nominee.)  So you can't read those visits as necessarily indicating presidential ambition of his own.  So does Ryan actually have presidential ambitions of his own, or is he happy to either remain in the House or serve in someone else's administration (as VP, if Romney had won)?

Ryan has sometimes tried to play down his own political ambitions, but in 2011, he showed some evidence of the presidential bug when he seemed to open the door a crack to a potential presidential run of his own in 2012.  Obviously, he ended up not running, but now that Ryan has played on the national stage, is he ready to run on his own in 2016?  Well, while some of the names being floated as potential candidates in '16 are people who've actually already ruled out a run (but may change their minds), Ryan simply dodges the question:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83744.html

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And then of course, there's the fact that Ryan would like you to know that he really loved the national campaign, especially the part of it that took place in Iowa:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/19/us/politics/paul-ryan-emerges-as-power-broker-in-fiscal-talks.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&pagewanted=2&adxnnlx=1353420757-0xjIeOmIaBqz0xQwcwOV6A

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Would running for president in 2016 mean that Ryan would have to give up his House seat?  Not necessarily.  The filing deadline for House races in WI isn't until June, by which time the GOP presidential nomination will most likely be decided.  So Ryan could run for the GOP nomination, and then switch to the House race if he doesn't win the nom.  (Though if he does win the nom., it'd be White House or bust.)

What's less clear is whether it would be easy for him to retain his chairmanship of the Budget Committee while he's running for president.  Many previous presidential candidates running from Congress have held onto committee chairmanships.  But those were more often than not lower profile committees, not quite as central to the nonstop partisan battles between Congress and the President over taxes and spending.

But will Ryan still be chairman in 2016 anyway?  The GOP has term limits on committee chairmanships.  They're already bending their normal term limit rules to let Ryan stay in place as chairman for the next Congress.  Maybe they're willing to keep doing that.  Alternatively, Ryan could step down as chairman of the Budget Committee in Jan. 2015 to mount a presidential campaign.  He's said to covet the chairmanship of the Ways and Means Committee, but that committee likely won't open up for another few years.  (2018?  2020 or beyond?)  While Ryan is waiting to take over the committee that he's most interested in, he could pass the time by running for president!  

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a 2016 story with a bonanza of tidbits about potential GOP candidates:


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/84110.html

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[Mr. Morden]

OK, today I'll look at two sons of former presidential candidates, Jeb Bush and Rand Paul.

Jeb Bush

In the entry on Ryan, I mention how he (sort of) flirted with running for president himself in 2012.  Same is true of Jeb Bush.  To get some insight into the almost 2012 Bush presidential campaign, and the dynamics of the Bush clan as a whole, read this 7 page New York magazine cover story on Bush, which begins here:

http://nymag.com/news/politics/elections-2012/jeb-bush-2012-10/

Too much in there to quote everything of interest, but here's the most relevant bit on 2012…..which could also be relevant for 2016:

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After deciding against a run in 2012, Bush seemed to resign himself to his political retirement, as he lamented, after Romney had won the nomination:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77137.html

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He seemed to be burning his political bridges, as he criticized the party on immigration, and decried it as being too exclusionary:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77325.html

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As that NY Magazine story notes:

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Bush is also writing a book on immigration:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81111.html

Whether you take that as a sign that he's burning his bridges with the party base, or that he's positioning himself for a run is up to your interpretation.  However, Bush publicly is very much ruling himself in as a potential 2016 candidate.  He visited Iowa last month:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/jeb-bush-heads-to-iowa/

and he's said that he has "not made that decision" on a 2016 run.  And finally, as of today, Politico has reported:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/84110.html

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EDIT: Almost forgot.  Just yesterday, Jeb's son, Jeb Jr., said "I certainly hope so" when asked if his father would run in 2016:

http://thehill.com/video/campaign/268887-jeb-bush-jr-wants-father-to-run-for-president-says-rubio-remark-strange

Rand Paul

Rand Paul got a very early start on campaigning in Iowa.  He began campaigning there in January 2012, just before the 2012 caucuses, as he campaigned for his father:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/01/ron-and-rand-paul-hit-the-trail-a-day-before-iowa-caucuses/

Since then, he's visited the state on his own in May of this year:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/03/watch-rand-cuccinelli-to-iowa-119044.html

and he met with the Iowa delegation at the RNC this August:

http://blogs.courier-journal.com/politics/2012/08/29/is-rand-paul-auditioning-for-iowa-in-2016/

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He also set up his own PAC this year, RAND PAC, which aired several TV ads attacking incumbent congressional Democrats on foreign aid:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82369.html?hp=l2

Of course, any national PAC has the potential to serve as a sort of proto-presidential campaign.

Finally, he's now publicly saying that he's "interested" in a 2016 run:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165218.0

How much more obvious do you want to the tea leaves to get here?

One final note though.  Unfortunately for Paul, he does not have the same luxury that his father had, or that Rubio and Ryan have, in being able to run for president, and then switch back to a reelection campaign if it doesn't work out.  Rand is up for reelection in 2016, and the filing deadline in Kentucky is in February.  So he can't realistically run for president and then wait until the nomination is decided before skipping out to jump into the Senate race.  He'll have to make a decision on the Senate race (most likely) before the nomination is decided.  So if he runs for prez, he's taking the John Edwards route of retiring from the Senate after one term.

[Mr. Morden]

Martin O'Malley

OK, look.  O'Malley's running.  Yes, if Hillary Clinton runs, he'd presumably opt out.  But if she doesn't, he's running.  He started running about 6 months ago, and has been more obvious about it than anyone I've ever seen, this far before the election.  (Especially for someone who still has a day job!)  Do we really need to go through all of the ways in which he's been telling us that he's running?

Well OK, here are a few.  In addition to going on national TV nonstop, he also made it out to New Hampshire way back in June:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/05/alert-omalley-to-new-hampshire-123676.html

then Iowa for the Harkin Steak Fry in September:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/omalley-to-headline-harkin-steak-fry-131265.html?hp=l10

He launched a federal PAC in July:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/omalley-launches-federal-pac-as-national-profile-rises/2012/07/26/gJQADPR6AX_blog.html

And he met with both the Iowa and South Carolina delegations at the DNC:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

He's also been taking several foreign trips, and had a planned trip to Israel (perennial foreign stop for US presidential candidates) cancelled because of the conflict with Gaza:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/omalley-postpones-israel-visit/2012/11/20/42b63576-3321-11e2-bfd5-e202b6d7b501_story.html

(This would have actually been his *third* trip to Israel since taking office as MD governor in 2005.)

I could go on, but what's the point?  How much more clear could O'Malley be making his intentions here?

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris is still only the Attorney General of California….not a position from which one normally launched directly into a presidential campaign.  If she is ever to be included on a national ticket, it'll probably only happen after she's served as either California governor or US Senator.  Neither of CA's senate seats are up until 2016 at the earliest.  *Maybe* Jerry Brown steps down after one term, since he'd be 80 at the end of a hypothetical second term.  In which case *maybe* Harris could win the Democratic nomination for governor, and then go on to win the general election.

But then what?  Is she going to launch a presidential campaign a few months after beginning her first term as governor?  Highly unlikely.  (However, she would probably end up being a 2016 VP shortlister, and potential 2020 presidential candidate.)

So why am I even listing her here?  Because she is technically in the "has not yet ruled out a run for president in 2016" category, as per her comments at the DNC:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/kamala-harris-superstitious-about-presidential-talk/

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Morry Taylor

If Kamala Harris isn't obscure enough of a candidate for you, how about Morry Taylor?  Switching over to the GOP side of the aisle, "the Grizz" ran for the GOP presidential nomination in 1996, and got about 1% of the vote in all the primaries he ran in.  But back in those days, that didn't matter, because he could still get facetime in the debates.  Imagine if the 2012 rules were that lax.  We'd have seen Buddy Roemer, and maybe even Fred Karger in the debates.

Taylor is one of the few candidates who's effectively already announced his candidacy….back in August:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158237.0

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Well, Obama has won.  So time for Grizz-fever.

[Mr. Morden]

More Bush:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/23/us/politics/jeb-bush-in-2016-its-not-too-early-for-chatter.html?pagewanted=all

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[Mr. Morden]

John Hickenlooper

Presidential buzz began early for first term Colorado Gov. Hickenlooper….way back in August 2011, little more than six months into his term:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/62307.html

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Hickenlooper has insisted that he's not interested:

http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_19669660

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He did speak at the DNC though, and David Weigel's convention coverage suggested that Hickenlooper might be open to a run:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/09/07/the_great_race_for_2016.html

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Hickenlooper did joke about the fact that a Hillary Clinton candidacy would drive everyone out of the race except him:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/09/hickenlooper-half-the-field-would-drop-out-if-hillary-134573.html

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He also visited NH in August:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156641.0

and there's reporting here that he's been laying the groundwork there:

http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/new-hampshire-2016-yes-already-e07nmat-180533191.html

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Finally, it should be noted that just a few months ago, Hickenlooper separated from his wife:

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2012-07-31/news/32966436_1_helen-thorpe-presidential-bid-john-hickenlooper

I leave it up to you to speculate on whether that'll matter for any potential presidential hopes.

[Mr. Morden]

Kathleen Sebelius

This one is kind of "out there", though certainly not as far-fetched as Kamala Harris.  Sebelius was rumored to have been interested in a presidential run in the 2000s, but didn't run in 2008, possibly because of Hillary Clinton's candidacy.  She'll be 68 years old on election day 2016, just one year younger than HRC, which is kind of old for a first time presidential candidate.

Sebelius hasn't been making trips to Iowa or New Hampshire, nor has she set up a PAC, or given any of the usual signs of interest in a presidential candidacy.  The one clue that she might still be interested in higher office is that she's been unusually politically active for a sitting member of the Cabinet, to the point that she has been accused of breaking the law:

http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2012-09-12/sebelius-broke-the-law-but-wont-be-punished/

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She also spoke at this year's DNC, which is also highly unusual for a sitting Cabinet secretary.  Is she doing this in part because she has future political ambitions of her own?  We'll have to wait and see.  In any case, the logic of a Sebelius 2016 campaign would be obvious.  She could run on her implementation of Obamacare, and argue that she's best qualified to preside over its expansion with a public option or whatever it is she wants to propose.

Condoleezza Rice



Another woman who's a longshot possibility as a 2016 presidential candidate is Condoleezza Rice.  Rice has never run for office before, nor expressed interest in running for office.  The only clue suggesting that that might change is the fact that, this year, she suddenly decided to get politically active.  She raised money for "ShePAC", a PAC whose goal is the election of "conservative women":

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/25/condoleezza-rice-to-raise-cash-for-gop-women/

She endorsed candidates in several races, and she spoke at the RNC.  Is there some personal political agenda at play here?  Well, it's possible that the game here was to curry favor with Romney, in order to get a job in his administration.  But what job?  She's already been Secretary of State.  What job is higher than that?  Vice President?  Rice consistently said thanks but no thanks:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/80338.html

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And:

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OK, so president?  Again, Rice has consistently said that she's not going to run for anything, ever.  I'm only mentioning her here at all because her sudden burst of political activity got people talking.

[Mr. Morden]

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz has been too busy running for the US Senate to worry about making trips to Iowa or New Hampshire.  However, it's possible that he may run for president in '16, perhaps taking up the spot as the Hispanic candidate in the field if Rubio doesn't run.  While Rubio, Ryan, and others would have to give up their reelection bids if they win the 2016 GOP nomination (since running for the presidency while simultaneously running for a seat in Congress is presumably impractical) Cruz doesn't face that choice, as his seat isn't up until 2018.

So is there any evidence that Cruz is interested?  Just that he really wants you to know that he's eligible to serve as president, should that ever be an issue:

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/11/19/121119fa_fact_lizza?currentPage=all

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[Mr. Morden]

Tom Vilsack

Vilsack ran for the 2008 Democratic nomination for president for all of about two weeks before dropping out.  He's currently the Secretary of Agriculture, so he's obviously a bit constrained in terms of how openly he can lay the groundwork for future political office.  However, while ruling out another bid for governor, he has left the door open for a future run for president, from an interview with the Des Moines Register back in May:

http://www.twylah.com/food_democracy/tweets/199920924173139968

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[Mr. Morden]

"Ted Cruz speech stokes 2016 speculation":

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/11/ted-cruz-speech-stokes-2016-speculation-84436.html

[Mr. Morden]

Scott Walker

Walker's already been elected Wisconsin governor twice, even though he's still in his first term!  It's unusual for a first term governor of a swing state to be dropping hints about interest in a presidential run when he still has to worry about reelection in two years, yet Walker has done exactly that.  In June, he refused to rule out a future presidential run:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=155318.0

And in September, he gave the keynote address at the New Hampshire GOP's convention in Derry:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=160255.0

In a story published last week, Politico name dropped Walker as a pol who "harbors national ambitions":

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/84110.html

Is Walker really interested in a run?  He insists in a new interview that he's not thinking about it:

http://wtaq.com/news/articles/2012/nov/26/governor-walker-insists-hes-not-thinking-about-2016-white-house-run/

but that hardly counts as a denial that he'll end up taking the plunge.  Of course, any potential campaign is complicated by the potential interest of fellow Wisconsinite Paul Ryan.  Ryan is the Cheesehead of the moment, and has significantly greater national name recognition and popularity among the national GOP.  If Ryan runs, Walker presumably opts out.  Walker is young enough, and can afford to wait.  But Ryan is not a certainty to run, so Walker might sieze the opportunity in '16 if Ryan opts out.

Rick Perry

Perry doesn't fit the normal profile of presidential candidates who fail to win the nomination but try again.  If you're a one time frontrunner who fails to win a single primary, you normally are embarrassed into slinking away from the national spotlight, but since Perry dropped out of the 2012 race, he's been hinting nonstop that he might run again in '16.  Just one week after dropping out, several Perry aides suggested that the man might try again:

http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/26/rick-perry-loyalists-hint-at-a-future-presidential-bid-blame-a-lack-of-time-for-candidate-stumbles/

Perry himself suggested that he was "leaning towards" a presidential run in 2016 back in April:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152379.0

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Ummmm……first of all, way to show your confidence in Romney's chances this year, by already talking about the possibility of an open GOP contest in '16 months before the '12 election.  Second of all, I should hope you'd be in the race before the summer of 2016, since all the primaries will be over by then!

If that wasn't enough to undercut Romney, Perry again floated the idea of running in '16 during the Republican National Convention:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158369.0

In October, Perry's legislative director seemed to confirm that Perry would run for reelection as governor:

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2014-statewide-elections/perry-adviser-says-governor-will-run-re-election/

but a spokesman quickly walked that back and insisted that there was no decision on whether Perry would run again for governor, again for president, both or neither.

After the election, Perry seemed to realize "Oh yeah, I have a day job.  Maybe I should stop talking about 2016 for a while".  So he insisted that he didn't want to talk about it, and said "“2016 is multiple lifetimes away":

http://www.statesman.com/news/news/perry-talk-of-2016-presidential-bid-premature/nS2hy/

And now, just a few days ago, Perry told the Rio Grande Guardian that he will "make an announcement about my future political plans" in July:

https://twitter.com/riogguardian/status/273550087131656192

So maybe that means that he's taking a break from 2016 speculation until July, and will then pick up where he left off.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich and Dole took over their respective houses of Congress following the 1994 midterms.  They often butted heads, but it looks like Gingrich might follow in Dole's footsteps by running for president at age 73:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165487.0

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Sorry, that's all I have on Gingrich.  AFAIK, he hasn't dropped any other hints.  To make up for how short my entry on Gingrich is, I direct you to the Political Kombat stage with Romney vs. Gingrich and Paul:

link

[Mr. Morden]

One addendum to yesterday's post: In addition to Perry's frequent public speculation on a future presidential run, he also visited Iowa in August:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/08/perry-returning-to-iowa-131173.html

[Mr. Morden]

Mike Pence

Pence was the de facto leader of a significant branch of the conservative wing of the party within the House during the latter half of the 2000s.  He retired from the GOP House leadership at the end of 2010, and was widely expected to announce a run for either President or Governor.  Not to rehash the whole story (jmfcst can do that for you), but as he was preparing to announce his future political intentions, he kept talking about national issues rather than state issues, suggesting that his heart was really in a presidential race rather than a gubernatorial one:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128741.0

Nonetheless, Pence decided on a gubernatorial run, perhaps concluding that making a direct move from the House of Representatives to the White House was a leap too far.  Under this reading of his actions, he regards his governorship as a stepping stone to an eventual presidential run.  The question then is whether he thinks one term as governor is enough, or if he intends to wait until 2020.  Politico says that Pence "has expressed interest in running" in 2016:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3527577#msg3527577

so we'll have to wait and see.

Rick Santorum

Santorum has been dropping hints about his 2016 intentions, even if he hasn't quite reached the Martin O'Malley level of blatant 2016 politicking.  He dropped out of the 2012 presidential race in April, days after his daughter Bella was hospitalized with a serious medical condition. 

Then in July, he returned to Iowa for a two day "Thank You Iowa" tour:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=154804.0

One noteworthy aspect of the trip was the fact that the invitation thanked Iowans for their "continued" support:



Does "continued" support suggest he'll be asking for their support in a future run?

He later made a trip to Des Moines to appear at the Family Leadership Summit:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=154804.0

In the past week, Santorum has indicated that he's "open" to a 2016 presidential run in two separate interviews (one with The Weekly Standard and one with Piers Morgan):

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/26/santorum-im-open-to-2016-bid/?on.cnn=1

Sounds like Santorum is interested.  While I hate to say it, it should be mentioned that the health of Santorum's daughter could again be a factor in his decisions on his political future.  Hopefully, she'll be healthy enough that it will not be an issue.

Michele Bachmann

Since dropping out of the 2012 presidential race, Bachmann has been busy with her reelection campaign for her House seat.  With that out of the way now, Politico reports "Republican sources said Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) might want to fill the void on the religious right now".  But are these "Republican sources" suggesting that Bachmann herself has expressed interest in 2016, or just guessing that she might be interested?  Politico, why do you toy with us like this?

[Mr. Morden]

Bobby Jindal

Jindal visited Iowa back in November…….of 2008:

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2008/11/24/4431968-bobby-jindals-saturday-in-iowa?lite

At the time, thought to be a sign of interest in Jindal running for president in 2012.  Jindal of course passed on that chance, and put his ambitions on hold until 2016.

More recently, Jindal has visited Iowa several times in 2012, though initially he seemed to be doing it as part of the Romney VP audition process:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/240119-jindal-mcdonnell-to-campaign-for-romney-in-iowa

However, even after Jindal was out of the veepstakes, he kept going back to Iowa….joining Santorum in September on a social conservative bus tour to campaign against the Iowa Supreme Court justices who legalized gay marriage:

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/rick-santorum-bobby-jindal-join-bus-tour-iowa-143532910--election.html

Jindal then hit Iowa yet again in late October, first for a Romney campaign event, and then for the Scott Country Republican Party Reagan Dinner:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/jindal-heads-to-iowa-county-gop-dinner-137194.html?hp=l9

A day later, Jindal campaigned for Iowa GOP congressional candidate John Archer, and then followed that up with a trip to fellow early-ish primary state Florida's pro-life dinner fundraiser:

http://article.wn.com/view/2012/10/24/Jindal_on_the_road_in_Iowa_Florida_for_GOP_events_x/

That was all before the election.  Now that the 2012 election has passed, and Romney's defeat has cleared the way for an open GOP field in 2016, Jindal can *really* get started on the 2016 campaign.  He's been waging a media tour since Election Day, articulating his own vision for the party:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164788.0

Jindal doesn't face any of the logistical problems that potential candidates Paul, Rubio, and Ryan do, in terms of trying to run for president and reelection for their current jobs at the same time.  He's young and term limited out of his current job in 2015.  What else has he got to do if he doesn't run for president?  He's given every indication that running for president is exactly what he intends to do.


OK, I've done blurbs on quite a few Republicans in a row.  Time to take a bit of a break with these two Democrats:

Kirsten Gillibrand

As a young, female US Senator from New York, who occupies the seat previously held by Hillary Clinton, Gillibrand has been the subject of presidential speculation since the moment she was picked by then-Gov. Paterson in 2009.

Throughout 2012, Gillibrand has been publicly urging Hillary Clinton to run in 2016.  E.g.:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=151090.0

Of course, the cynical take on this is that by publicly urging on Clinton, Gillibrand creates the rationale for her own candidacy if Clinton declines to run.  (Not that she would ever put it this bluntly, but the rationale would be something like: "Well, I wanted Hillary to run.  But since she isn't, I should run, as I'm basically 'Hillary Clinton Jr.'")

Is the buzz surrounding Gillibrand a pure media invention, or has she been doing anything on her own to drive it?  Well, she does have two separate PACs:

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2012-10-14/news/34452915_1_clinton-and-cuomo-democratic-candidates-presidential-race

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Beyond that, Gillibrand raised eyebrows at this year's DNC when she was one of a handful of national pols who met with the Iowa delegation:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

That seems like a fairly clear indication that she has national ambitions.  OTOH, it doesn't automatically mean that she expects to fulfil those ambitions as early as 2016, nor does it necessarily mean that it would be done via a run for president.  It's possible that, instead, she intends to simply tease a presidential run in order to help boost her national profile, and put herself on the political map as a VP choice in '16.

More recently, Gillibrand has denied any national ambitions for 2016:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=163060.0

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As I note in that thread, that's a denial, but something of a weasel word denial.  Saying you "plan" to serve your full term is different from a Shermanesque denial that those plans will ever change.

Finally, it's worth noting that while Gillibrand's support of Clinton 2016 implies that Gillibrand herself will not run if Clinton does, it's somewhat less clear if she would be blocked by NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo.  It would be highly unusual for the junior senator from a state to launch a presidential campaign against the state's sitting governor, but never say never.  IMHO, if there turn out to be zero other women running on the Democratic side, then Gillibrand might see an opening that's too hard to resist.

Amy Klobuchar

Like Gillibrand, Klobuchar also met with the Iowa delegation at the DNC:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

declaring to the delegates "I can see Iowa from my porch".

Klobuchar was more active at the DNC than Gillibrand though, meeting with the South Carolina delegation as well.  As David Weigel described it:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/09/07/the_great_race_for_2016.html

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Later that month, Klobuchar took time out from her own non-competitive reelection race to do some campaigning in Iowa….for Christie Vilsack:

http://www.kimt.com/content/localnews/iowanews/story/Klobuchar-and-Vilsack-Tour-Francis-Lauer-Youth/7CWkrJsNDEOu7FitIiHoOw.cspx

More recently, Klobuchar was pressed on whether she had presidential ambitions by Chris Matthews, and she denied any interest:

http://www.minnpost.com/dc-dispatches/2012/11/klobuchar-says-no-early-2016-chatter

Matthews: Would you like to be president?
Klobuchar: I love being the Senator from Minnesota, that’s what I want to do. We have a great state, you should come and visit, Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Matthews: Was that an answer?  A yes or no?
Klobuchar: That was a no.

As in the case of Gillibrand, though, this is hardly the most Shermanesque denial ever, and doesn't really close the door.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico runs a story on the 2016ers meeting with big money Super PAC donors:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/2016-contenders-courting-mega-donors-84497.html?hp=t1

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The story also mentions how many Democratic donors have a distaste for Super PACs, and speculates on the possibility that the 2016ers will have some sort of agreement not to use them during the primaries.

It also speculates on how the possibility of Hillary Clinton running might end up freezing the money on the Democratic side:

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[Mr. Morden]

Ken Cuccinelli

For the past 20 years (going back to Douglas Wilder), every single governor of Virginia has either run for president, or been the object of speculation suggesting that he might run for president.  The window of time it takes for this to happen seems to be shrinking, to the point that it's enveloped yet-to-be-VA Gov. Ken Cuccinelli, negative one years after he was elected.  Yes, Cuccinelli is still merely a candidate for VA governor.  However, he seems to already be taking it for granted that he'll win, as he began laying the groundwork for the move to the national stage with this trip to Iowa:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/virginia-politics/post/cuccinelli-to-headline-gop-dinner-in-iowa/2012/03/28/gIQA5jPDhS_blog.html

Maybe he can restrain himself from making more such trips until after he's already won his gubernatorial race.

Antonio Villaraigosa

Villaraigosa is taking the traditional path to the White House…….getting there from the office of Secretary of Transportation.

What?

Yes, Villaraigosa is rumored to be the leading candidate to replace Ray LaHood as Secretary of Transportation in Obama's second term:

http://www.planetizen.com/node/59345

So Villaraigosa will leave his job as Mayor of Los Angeles (he's term limited anyway), serve in Obama's Cabinet for two years, and then leave the Cabinet to begin his presidential campaign.

Really?  Well, maybe, yeah.  He was the keynote speaker at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Iowa this year:

http://www.scpr.org/blogs/politics/2012/10/19/10603/mayor-villaraigosa-heads-iowa-democratic-dinner/

That comes in addition to his active campaigning for Obama around the country this year.  Villaraigosa also met with the Iowa delegation at the convention this year, along with other potential 2016ers like Klobuchar, O'Malley, and Schweitzer:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

However, that visit may have just been a sign of the Iowa delegation's status, as Villaraigosa was the chairman of the convention.

Which reminds me, if Villaraigosa's campaign gets off the ground, expect this to go viral again:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST-eE4Ud7nw

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a story on Rubio's and Ryan's presidential ambitions, talking specifically about their duelling speeches coming up on Tuesday night at the Jack Kemp Foundation’s awards dinner:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/paul-ryan-and-marco-rubios-makeovers-84544.html?hp=t1

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Some of the most interesting tidbits about each prospective candidate:

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[Mr. Morden]

Brian Schweitzer

Schweitzer for president buzz started at least as far back as the 2008 DNC, when he won praise for his convention speech.  Since then, there've been a series of hints that have been dropped, suggesting that Schweitzer is interested.

One indication comes from the fact that he's a small state governor, yet has spoken out on foreign policy issues, including criticism of Obama's Afghanistan policy from the left:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/09/buzz-building-for-montana-gov-brian-schweitzer-in-2016

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Yes, you read that right.  Schweitzer is friends with a 114 year old man.  (Or 115 now if he's still alive, since that story is from last year.)  Maybe he should introduce him to Roberta McCain.

That article also notes that Schweitzer was already visiting early primary states IA, NH, SC, and FL……back in 2011.  Yes, you read that right as well.  Schweitzer started visiting early primary states 5 years before the presidential election he's running in.  That has to be a record.  He also met with both the Iowa and New Hampshire delegations at this year's DNC:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

What does he say publicly about a run?  Well, he won't confirm that he's going to run for president.  He just wants you to know that he won't run for Congress:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161958.0

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At times, he's thrown cold water on the idea of ever running for another office:

http://mtstreetfighter.com/has-brian-schweitzer-given-up-on-politics/

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But more recently, he's emphasized his love for IA and NH:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/12/02/montana-gov-schweitzer-stokes-2016-intrigue/

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Presumably, he won't definitively confirm or deny his candidacy for some time.  In the meantime, perhaps his supporters will keep entertaining us with ads like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCIFH0XHjyU&feature=player_embedded

[Mr. Morden]

Walker is asked again about 2016, and dodges the question:

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/white-house-gov-walker-dodges-2016-intentions-calls-bipartisanship

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[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a story on Rubio's and Ryan's presidential ambitions, talking specifically about their duelling speeches coming up on Tuesday night at the Jack Kemp Foundation’s awards dinner:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/paul-ryan-and-marco-rubios-makeovers-84544.html?hp=t1

So now they've spoken at this dinner, and you can read a recap here:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/ryan-and-rubio-say-republicans-must-work-on-aiding-middle-class/

They both joked about 2016:

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