LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

McHenry was just named to be Vice Chairman of recruitment for the NRCC.

I was already skeptical that he would run for Senate and this seems to confirm my hunch.

[Sol]

Hoping my representative runs. (Can you guess who?)

[Miles]

Hoping my representative runs. (Can you guess who?)

You're from Boone, IIRC, ergo, Foxx.

Yes, that would be quite nice; she'll lose the Senate race and would be replaced by a (hopefully) less odious Republican in the House.

[Miles]

Joe Biden will be doing a fundraiser this weekend in New Orleans.

The state Republican Party has called on Landrieu to cancel the event citing the VP's gun control efforts. As usual though, her office handled these quibbles diplomatically:

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Last I checked, the Senator has almost $2 million in the bank, though she's a tick behind Cassidy.

[Miles]

I mentioned this in another thread but I think it should be here as well.

The latest survey of the landscape in LA was fromSouthern Media & Opinion Research in September of 2012.

It finds that Senator Landrieu is the most popular statewide official, with 62% giving her at least a "good" rating. For perspective, these are some others:

Landrieu: 62/28
Vitter: 52/21
Jindal: 51/45
Obama: 44/53

Cassidy is at 25/11 with 63% having no opinion of him.

I'm not sure I'd totally buy into these numbers, as the same firm had Romney leading by only 6. However, its polling in the previous two Senate races was pretty accurate; it projected Vitter by 18 in 2010 and showed Landrieu winning by 6 in 2008.

[Bacon King]

Not surprising, everyone in LA 's Landrieu.

[Vern]

Who do you think would run if Coble retired?

[Miles]

Who do you think would run if Coble retired?

Coble has already had a few younger Republicans run against him in the primary over the last few cycles. If he retires, I think there would be a clown car Republican primary.

Guilford County Commissioner Billy Yow ran against him from the far right both in 2010 and 2012; I'm pretty sure he'd run again if he seat was open.

A better candidate, IMO, would be either Senate Majority Leader Phil Berger or his son, Phil Berger Jr, both from Rockingham County. In fact, when Republicans released their original redistricting map, the Democrats accused them of redrawing NC-13 specifically for Berger Jr. Under the modified map, much of that 13th was transferred to Coble's 6th.

Other than the Bergers, most other Republican State Senators in that area only have 1 or 2 terms under their belts.

On the Democratic side, Greensboro mayor Robbie Perkins would probably be the best guy. I don't Democrats would have any other A teamers here.

[Talleyrand]

Vitter: 52/21

...Any explanation for these numbers?

I thought Vitter was a backbencher, although he seems to be a huge joke. Does he still plan to run for Governor in 2015?

[Miles]

Vitter: 52/21

...Any explanation for these numbers?

I thought Vitter was a backbencher, although he seems to be a huge joke. Does he still plan to run for Governor in 2015?

Well, he's done a lot of work on more localized issues, so that helps him.

I'd be surprised if he doesn't run in 2015.

[Mr.Phips]

Who do you think would run if Coble retired?

Coble has already had a few younger Republicans run against him in the primary over the last few cycles. If he retires, I think there would be a clown car Republican primary.

Guilford County Commissioner Billy Yow ran against him from the far right both in 2010 and 2012; I'm pretty sure he'd run again if he seat was open.

A better candidate, IMO, would be either Senate Majority Leader Phil Berger or his son, Phil Berger Jr, both from Rockingham County. In fact, when Republicans released their original redistricting map, the Democrats accused them of redrawing NC-13 specifically for Berger Jr. Under the modified map, much of that 13th was transferred to Coble's 6th.

Other than the Bergers, most other Republican State Senators in that area only have 1 or 2 terms under their belts.

On the Democratic side, Greensboro mayor Robbie Perkins would probably be the best guy. I don't Democrats would have any other A teamers here.

How about former State Senator Tony Forrest?  He represented a state Senate district that had a pretty similar PVI to the current NC-06 before he was swept out in the 2010 wave.  Yes, he dad badly in his quixotic run against Coble, but Coble is a god in that district. 

[Miles]

How about former State Senator Tony Forrest?  He represented a state Senate district that had a pretty similar PVI to the current NC-06 before he was swept out in the 2010 wave.  Yes, he dad badly in his quixotic run against Coble, but Coble is a god in that district. 

Yeah, I forgot about Foriest.

[Miles]

How about former State Senator Tony Forrest?  He represented a state Senate district that had a pretty similar PVI to the current NC-06 before he was swept out in the 2010 wave.  Yes, he dad badly in his quixotic run against Coble, but Coble is a god in that district.  

Yeah, I forgot about Foriest.

I did a bit more research: Foriest's district was 53/46 McCain. Pretty impressive, but NC-06 was 56/43.

[JacobNC]

Who do you think would run if Coble retired?

Coble has already had a few younger Republicans run against him in the primary over the last few cycles. If he retires, I think there would be a clown car Republican primary.

Guilford County Commissioner Billy Yow ran against him from the far right both in 2010 and 2012; I'm pretty sure he'd run again if he seat was open.

A better candidate, IMO, would be either Senate Majority Leader Phil Berger or his son, Phil Berger Jr, both from Rockingham County. In fact, when Republicans released their original redistricting map, the Democrats accused them of redrawing NC-13 specifically for Berger Jr. Under the modified map, much of that 13th was transferred to Coble's 6th.

Other than the Bergers, most other Republican State Senators in that area only have 1 or 2 terms under their belts.

On the Democratic side, Greensboro mayor Robbie Perkins would probably be the best guy. I don't Democrats would have any other A teamers here.

Former State Treasurer Richard Moore is from Granville County.  He would be a good candidate.

[Miles]

LOL.

I don't know if she should run too far with that though.

[Miles]

Civitas puts Hagan's approval at 45/27. That spread is, oddly, much better than the 34/36 that PPP had her at.

[Miles]

Mary is starting out this cycle with $2.53 million in the bank.

[Miles]

This has more to do with NC Congressional history than either of the Senate races, but I'll post it here anyway. I just read a really good diary over at DKE about the NC districts in the 1980's. Its an informative history lesson about the state's political geography and I'd recommend it to those interested in NC.

[Miles]

Senator Landrieu discussing the importance and impact of the Superbowl on the local economy.

[Miles]

Both Landrieu and Hagan are supporting Hagel.

[Miles]

NC Secretary of Labor Cherie Berry has floated the idea of a Senate bid.

Ask any NC poster here, Berry is best known for having her picture in every elevator in the state. This gives her some nice built-in name rec.

Lately, she's been criticized by Democrats when she advocated eliminating the minimum wage.

[Miles]

DefendLA, a preaux-gun group, made a short video featuring all 5 Congressional Republicans taking stances against the President's gun initiatives.

[Miles]

Congressman Howard Coble has been hospitalized after nearly fainting this morning. He's had similar episodes throughout the past few years, but he's generally come out of them well; lets hope that is the case again here.

Congressman Coble is the longest-serving House Republican in NC history; 2014 will be the 30th year since he first ran for Congress (in 1984).

Coble has said previously that he doesn't plan on serving "eternally," so this should be on open-seat watch.

[krazen1211]

http://atr.rollcall.com/louisiana-dardenne-pondering-run-against-landrieu/

Louisiana: Dardenne ‘Pondering’ Run Against Landrieu

[RogueBeaver]

Consensus please. Not a Dardenne fan but apart from Cassidy he's probably the best bet. On flip side, that would leave Vitter a clear path to the gubernatorial nomination. Ugh.