UK local by-elections 2013

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Deeside also has an important T&G history (with walking cliché Arthur Deakin being one of the key figures).

[minionofmidas]

Hooray! The Holy Word is back in the best place for it!

[minionofmidas]

Further up on the Wirral is Parkgate

Further downstream, surely.

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Yeah, no village has 7000 people in my book. Anything over half that (and that's generous) will be either a town or a suburb. In this case, suburb.  

[joevsimp]

Definitely not the kind of conversation you should have in any written form whatsoever.

Alex doesn't seem to have suffered very much for it, she was the only green cllr to openly break ranks early on in this mess and is definitely a potential successor for Caroline, I think she was her election agent in 2010 and was definitely her chief volunteer wrangler (she owes me a new pair of boots after that campaign)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Further up on the Wirral is Parkgate

Further downstream, surely.

This is the Parkgate seafront:


If you can find a stream there, I'll let you have downstream.

[doktorb]

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Not all by-election days can be interesting

[minionofmidas]

Further up on the Wirral is Parkgate

Further downstream, surely.

This is the Parkgate seafront:


If you can find a stream there, I'll let you have downstream.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Meh, it also bugs me when Germans use "up" in the sense of north in relation to Germany. Which they do a lot. In Germany south as by the Dee, up is obviously southwards.

[Khunanup]

Further up on the Wirral is Parkgate

Further downstream, surely.

This is the Parkgate seafront:


If you can find a stream there, I'll let you have downstream.

The water does still come up to the prom... twice a year! Park gate does have one thing that is utterly seaside still, a brilliant home made ice cream shop.

Oh, and Andrew, as far as Wirralians are concerned, they don't live on the south bank of the Mersey and the north bank of the Dee, it's west and east banks respectively (and Scousers would say east bank of the Mersey and Welsh Deeside West Bank of the Dee).

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Seven council by-elections will be held on Thursday 25th July 2013, all in London and the south of England.  We start in South London where Labour have a seat to defend in inner city Lambeth and the Lib Dems are affected by a scandal in Kingston upon Thames.  Further down the Waterloo line the Tories will try to hold off all comers in affluent Weybridge.  There are a pair of seats up for election in Essex, one defence each for Labour and the Conservatives, and we finish off with Conservative defences in Northamptonshire and Weston-super-Mare.

TULSE HILL, Lambeth borough council, South London; caused by the death of Labour councillor Ruth Ling at the age of 60.  A former freelance journalist who had lived for a time in Brazil, she had been a relatively long-serving councillor by Lambeth standards, first being elected to Lambeth council in 1994.

A few weeks ago this column previewed a by-election in Brixton Hill ward, whose eastern boundary is the A23 Brixton Hill road.  On the other side of the road is Tulse Hill ward, whose eastern boundary likewise is the A204 Tulse Hill road.  The ward runs frm the heart of Brixton at the northern tip towards Streatham and Tulse Hill proper at the southern end.  The population here is majority non-white with over 36% of the population identifying as black in the 2011 census.

Inner-city wards like this normally have strong Labour support, and such it is here.  There was a by-election here two years ago which saw a small swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats, but that was during the Coalition's short-lived honeymoon period and Labour still polled over 52% of the vote.  At the 2012 GLA elections Ken beat Boris here 62-18; in the list section of that election the Green Party resumed their normal second place in the ward's ballot boxes with 17% to Labour's 60%.

These indicators wouldn't suggest much for the new Labour candidate Mary Atkins to worry about.  Amna Ahmad is standing for the Liberal Democrats, while regular Green candidate Bernard Atwell tries again.  All three candidates give addresses in the local SW2 (Brixton) postal district, and Atkins and Ahmad's publicity describes their employment in the sort of buzzword bingo that gives no clue what they actually do for a living.  This is less of a problem for the Conservative candidate, housing solicitor Tim Briggs who has served in Afghanistan with the Paras.  Another solicitor on the ballot is UKIP's Elizabeth Jones, crossing the road after standing in the Brixton Hill by-election in January.  Adam Buick (SPGB) and Steve Nally (TUSC) will dispute the ward's far-left vote, and independent candidate Valentine Walker is a retired businessman campaigning to save sheltered housing in Lambeth.

Parliamentary constituency: Streatham
GLA constituency: Lambeth and Southwark
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Amna Ahmad (LD)
Mary Atkins (Lab)
Bernard Atwell (Grn)
Timothy Briggs (C)
Adam Buick (SPGB)
Elizabeth Jones (UKIP)
Steve Nally (TUSC)
Valentine Walker (Ind)

July 2010 by-election Lab 1235 LD 745 Grn 256 C 94 UKIP 36
May 2010 result Lab 3232/3186/3160 LD 1764/1748/1668 Grn 759/698/656 C 608/556/503
May 2006 result Lab 1589/1528/1514 Grn 718 LD 582/432/374 C 353/309/306
May 2002 result Lab 1219/1078/1017 Grn 440/333 LD 334/290/285 C 225/215/184 Socialist Alliance 171
May 2012 GLA elections (excludes postal voters)
Mayor: Ken 2156 Boris 628 Grn 340 Paddick 172 Benita 155 UKIP 22 BNP 13
List: Lab 2102 Grn 601 C 354 LD 217 UKIP 67 TUSC 64 CPA 37 BNP 17 EDP 15 House Party 12 Hayat 8 NF 3 Alagaratnam 1



BEVERLEY, Kingston upon Thames borough council, South London; caused by the resignation of the Leader of the Council, Liberal Democrat councillor Derek Osbourne, after he was arrested on suspicion of possessing indecent images of children.

Further out of London on the south-western main line can be found the suburb of New Malden, one of the London surburbs which owes its existence to the railway line and the commuting opportunities that entails.  The commuting profile has created a relatively well-off middle-class ward.  One surprising feature of New Malden is a very high Korean population, many of whom work in the City for Korean companies; the Korean diet is such that Tesco sell more fruit and vegetables per customer in New Malden than anywhere else.  Most of the resident Koreans, of course, won't be eligible to vote in this by-election.

New Malden's Beverley ward, named ultimately after the Beverley Brook, has been Liberal Democrat-held since 1986 and was a very safe Lib Dem ward in the Noughties, although the Conservatives got a swing in their favour at the most recent Kingston council election, held on general election day in 2010.  The ward most recently went to the polls in 2012 for the GLA elections: in the ward's ballot boxes Boris beat Ken 49-27 and the Liberal Democrats had one of their more decent scores in what was a disastrous election for them (the list votes were C 34 Lab 26 LD 16 Grn 11).  Kingston council is having a rash of by-elections (this is the sixth council by-election in the royal borough since 2010) but with no consistent trend emerging.

Defending for the Liberal Democrats is Lesley Heap, a swimming teacher and wife of one of the two remaining ward councillors.  The Conservative candidate is Terry Paton, a former policeman.  Volunteer theatre usher Marian Freeman is standing for Labour, Chris Walker for the Green Party and Michael Watson for UKIP.

Parliamentary constituency: Kingston and Surbiton
Greater London Assembly constituency: South West
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Marian Freedman (Lab)
Lesley Heap (LD)
Terence Paton (C)
Chris Walker (Grn)
Michael Watson (UKIP)

May 2010 result LD 2138/2081/2044 C 1738/1591/1530 Lab 657/566/474 Grn 581 Christian Peoples Alliance 158/139/139
May 2006 result LD 1398/1391/1385 C 972/936/874 Grn 416 Lab 284/275/268 Christian Peoples Alliance 125/93/80
May 2002 result LD 1653/1632/1609 C 945/939/889 Lab 249/236/218 Christian Peoples Alliance 117
May 2012 GLA election (excludes postal voters)
Mayor: Boris 1162 Ken 644 Benita 209 Paddick 152 Grn 129 UKIP 53 BNP 22
List: C 783 Lab 601 LD 375 Grn 264 CPA 94 UKIP 88 BNP 41 EDP 27 TUSC 13 House Party 8 NF 6 Hayat 4 Alagaratnam 2



WEYBRIDGE SOUTH, Elmbridge borough council, Surrey; caused by the resignation of the Deputy Leader of the Council, Conservative councillor Simon Dodsworth, who is emigrating to Dubai.

For the week's third London-area by-election we travel yet further out along the south-western mainline to the suburb of Weybridge.  Another town which grew because of the railway, Weybridge (the point where the River Wey flows into the Thames) is even better off than New Malden; the Times reported in 2008 that the town had six of the ten most expensive streets in the South East region.  All three of Weybridge South's census areas are in the 20% least deprived in England.

Elmbridge council is known for the political strength of Residents Associations, but the Residents do not normally contest Weybridge South which hasn't seen an awful lot of change in its results over the last decade.  The Tories generally win very easily with the Liberal Democrats second, with the exception of the 2008 election which saw Kelvin MacKenzie (yes, *that* Kelvin MacKenzie) stand as an independent campaigning to reduce the cost of car parking.  While MacKenzie did finish second, he lost just as comprehensively as the Lib Dems normally do here and hasn't been seen on a ballot paper since.  May's county election in the wider Weybridge division (which includes St George's Hill) was more interesting: while the Tories held the division they polled just a third of the vote, with a Weybridge Independent candidate finishing as runner-up and outgoing county councillor Ian Lake standing as a UKIP candidate; Lake came fourth, polling 17%.

The Conservative candidate to defend Weybridge South is Richard Knight who, appropriately for such a rich town, owns a wealth management company.  Gillian Solway stands for the Liberal Democrats and defeated county councillor Ian Lake is back on the campaign trail for UKIP.  Labour apparently did select Martin Lister (their 2010 candidate here) to fight the by-election, but he hasn't been successfully nominated and won't appear on the ballot paper.

Surrey county council division: Weybridge
Parliamentary constituency: Runnymede and Weybridge
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Richard Knight (C)
Ian Lake (UKIP)
Gillian Solway (LD)

May 2012 result C 638 LD 173 Lab 107
May 2010 result C 1434 LD 649 Lab 152
May 2008 result C 679 Ind 227 LD 192
May 2006 result C 786 LD 271
June 2004 result C 776 LD 365 Lab 77
May 2002 result C 700 LD 266 Lab 78

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Part II


BRAINTREE EAST, Braintree district council, Essex; caused by the death of Labour councillor Eric Lynch at the age of 69 from bowel cancer.  After a career in health technology, Lynch had first been elected to Braintree council in 2003, and regained his seat at a March 2012 by-election after being defeated in 2011.

Braintree appears to be one of the more determinedly obscure towns in southern England.  It can be found in the rural northern half of Essex, about eleven miles north of the county town, Chelmsford.  The town was originally Roman and is located at the junction of two Roman roads, but it became prosperous in mediaeval times by weaving wool, turning to silk during the Industrial Revolution; the main silk mill here was run by Samuel Courtauld, whose descendants founded the Courtauld Institute of Art in London.  Probably the main reason for outsiders to visit is the designer outlet village of Braintree Freeport.  The town and Freeport both have hourly trains to Liverpool Street (change at Witham on Sundays).

Braintree is in a rural area but this doesn't necessarily translate to strong Tory votes.  The area has had Labour MPs in the past, most famously Tom Driberg in the 1940s and 1950s, when this area was part of the Maldon constituency; more recently Braintree elected a Labour MP in 1997 and (narrowly) in 2001.

Indeed Braintree town is one of the more politically marginal areas.  Braintree East ward (which contains some very deprived parts as well as the Freeport) was fairly safe Labour in 2003, but the Conservatives gained one of the Labour seats in 2007 and held on to it in a June 2008 by-election.  The 2011 election again produced a 2Lab/1C split in what was effectively a photo-finish between the top candidates, and the March 2012 by-election saw a Labour gain from the Conservatives with a good swing in Labour's favour.  The ward is split between two county divisions: in May's elections the Conservatives held Braintree Eastern comfortably but held Braintree Town by just 31 votes over the Labour candidate.

The defending Labour candidate Celia Burne moves here from Braintree Central ward which she had fought in the 2011 election.  The Conservatives are standing a former ward councillor, Jennifer Smith who was the winner of the 2008 by-election but stood down in 2011 shortly after a hairdressing business she owned was prosecuted by her own council.  Computer science graduate Philip Palij, from Coggeshall, tries again after finishing third in the 2012 by-election and being runner-up in Braintree Eastern two months ago.  Another veteran of May's election, John Malam, completes the ballot paper as the Green Party candidate.

Parliamentary constituency: Braintree
Essex County Council divisions: Braintree Town (western part), Braintree Eastern (eastern part)
ONS Travel to Work area: Chelmsford and Braintree

Celia Burne (Lab)
John Malam (Grn)
Philip Palij (UKIP)
Jennifer Smith (C)

March 2012 by-election Lab 554 C 388 UKIP 131 Grn 76 Ind 32
May 2011 result Lab 762/756/710 C 759/691/668 Grn 297
June 2008 by-election C 668 Lab 406 Grn 125 LD 119
May 2007 result Lab 581/541/516 C 546/507/483 UKIP 266 LD 247/244
May 2003 result Lab 597/531/502 C 304 Ind 254/228 LD 219/216



FELSTED, Uttlesford district council, Essex; caused by the disqualification of Conservative councillor David Crome who failed to attend any meetings of the council in six months.

A few miles west of Braintree can be found the village of Felsted, on the north bank of the Chelmer.  While Felsted has a long history, it's probably best known for its public school, which was founded in 1564 by the 1st Lord Rich, Lord Chancellor, on the back of the profits he had made from the Dissolution of the Monasteries.  The Wikipedia list of Old Felstedians is ridiculously long; for our purposes highlights include the former head of state Richard Cromwell and two members of the current House of Commons, Conservative MPs Andrew Tyrie (Chichester) and Charlie Elphicke (Dover).  The Felsted ward also includes the village of Little Dunmow and the tiny parish of Flitch Green, a new housing development on the site of an old sugar beet factory which declared independence from Little Dunmow parish in 2009.  The word "flitch" recalls a strange ancient tradition in Little Dunmow: awarding a flitch of bacon to couples who have been married for a year and a day without regret.  One of the main exports from the ward is English wine: Felsted Vineyard describes itself as the oldest commercial vineyard in East Anglia.

While the Liberal Democrats held both council seats after the 2003 election, this ward has trended strongly towards the Conservatives since then; the Tories defeated the Lib Dems 79-21 at the 2011 election which, like the previous two, was a straight fight.

Defending this by-election for the Conservatives is Marie Felton, a full-time mother from Felsted who has worked in property and in the pharmaceutical industry.  Antionette Wattebot, a retired teacher, is the Liberal Democrat candidate.  The duopoly on candidates here has been broken: UKIP have nominated Alan Stannard, from just outside the ward in Willows Green, a retired City stockbroker who has also run his own taxi business.  The ballot paper is completed by the Labour candidate Yad Zanganah, a dental surgeon.

Parliamentary constituency: Saffron Walden
Essex county council division: Thaxted
ONS Travel to Work Area: Harlow and Bishop's Stortford

Marie Felton (C)
Alan Stannard (UKIP)
Antionette Wattebot (LD)
Yad Zanganah (Lab)

May 2011 result C 1204/1113 LD 320/314
May 2007 result C 924/740 LD 585/554
May 2003 result LD 539/531 C 336/298



THRAPSTON MARKET, East Northamptonshire district council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Michael Finch.

A small town in rural Northamptonshire of about 5,800 souls, Thrapston can be found on the River Nene at the junction of the A14 Kettering-Huntingdon road with the A45/A605 Northampton-Peterborough road.  The town is fairly nondescript and the main feature is the offices of East Northamptonshire district council.  The Thrapston Market ward combines the southern half of the town with the parishes of Denford and Ringstead to the south.

East Northamptonshire is a strongly Conservative local government district and the Conservatives were unopposed here in 2007 when the ward was created.  In 2011, however, while still topping the poll the Tories lost one of the seats in this ward to an independent candidate.  The ward is divided between two county council divisions; in May the Tories held Thrapston county division fairly comfortably although on a low share of the vote, UKIP being second, while the rural parishes form part of Irthlingborough county division where the Tories beat off Labour rather more narrowly.  However, it's probably fair to say that Denford and Ringstead are not the best parts of that division for Labour.

Defending for the Conservatives is Alex Smith.  Thrapston town councillor Val Carter is standing as an Independent.  Joseph Garner stands for UKIP hot from the campaign trail after finishing runner-up to the Conservatives in Thrapston county division in May, and teacher Alex Izycky is the Labour candidate.

Parliamentary constituency: Corby
Northamptonshire county council division: Thrapston (Thrapston parish), Irthlingborough (Denford and Ringstead parishes)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Kettering and Corby

Valerie Carter (Ind)
Joseph Garner (UKIP)
Alex Izycky (Lab)
Alex Smith (C)

May 2011 result C 754/586 Ind 604
May 2007 result 2 C unopposed

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Part III.  This preview is not my work, it's by Andrew Nisbet, who would no doubt be rather sorry if he went to all that trouble and found his work wasn't published.

WESTON-SUPER-MARE NORTH WORLE, North Somerset council; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor.

Weston-super-Mare North Worle is almost entirely made up of new suburbs built in the 1980s and 90s on farmland on the edge of Weston. Situated close to the M5 motorway, this area has lots of young families and commuters. Most of the ward is fairly affluent, with only a few areas of social housing and retirement bungalows. The motte and bailey Castle Batch is a prominent feature in the centre of the ward. Many of the roads are named after people or places of historical interest. At the east end of the ward the roads are named after Somerset county cricketers.
 
Upon its creation in 1999 the ward was won by the Liberal Democrats, who increased their majority in 2003. The top scoring candidate both times was Alan Hockridge, who had a large personal following, and who became leader of the council in 2005, first in coalition with the Conservatives, then with Labour.
Alan Hockridge died suddenly during the 2007 elections which were then deferred. The unpopularity of the outgoing Lib Dem/Labour administration, combined with the loss of Hockridge's personal vote, meant the Lib Dems lost the ward on a huge swing to the Conservatives. The result in 2011 was very similar apart from an increased Labour vote.
 
The Conservative candidate is Richard Nightingale who runs his family's removals and estate agents business. He proposed a plan to develop the town's derelict Tropicana swimming pool, which was turned down by the Conservative administration who decided to demolish it instead. He is now in the ironic position of standing for them.
 
The Liberal Democrat candidate is communications expert Edward Keating who was formerly a councillor for the neighbouring South Worle ward. He has campaigned to get the Tropicana developed as a swimming pool.
 
An Independent candidate is farmer and developer Derek Mead whose company built many of the new houses in the area. He has also been behind a scheme to redevelop the Tropicana. He was previously not allowed to stand as a Conservative for being in his words "too disruptive".
 
The Labour candidate is Denise Hunt who works in local government.
 
The UKIP candidate is local GP Steven Pearse-Danker. He was to have been UKIP's parliamentary candidate in 2010 but was ineligible to stand due to being a Danish citizen.
 
Another Independent is Rachel Ling, who was the Lib Dem candidate in another by-election just 3 months ago.
 
There is also a by-election for Weston-super-Mare Town Council for the Worle East ward, which covers roughly the eastern half of the district ward.

Parliamentary constituency: Weston-super-Mare
ONS Travel to Work Area: Bristol

Denise Hunt (Lab)
Edward Keating (LD)
Rachel Ling (Ind)
Derek Mead (Ind)
Richard Nightingale (C)
Steven Pearse-Danker (UKIP)

May 2011 result C 1293/1183/1101 LD 686/671/609 Lab 600/596/559
June 2007 postponed poll C 946/920/904 LD 513/498/494 Lab 268/234/218 Ind 157 UKIP 154
May 2003 result LD 1356/1236/1143 C 627/610 Lab 268/248/243

[ObserverIE]

Elmbridge, Weybridge South

Con 48.6 (-20.9)
Lib Dem 26.6 (+7.8)
UKIP 24.8 (+24.8)

Braintree, Braintree East (changes in italics since March 2012 by-election)

Lab 46.6 (+4.1) (-0.3)
Con 27.0 (-13.4) (-5.9)
UKIP 19.6 (+19.6) (+8.5)
Green 6.8 (-10.2) (+0.4)

Uttlesford, Felsted

Con 54.1 (-24.4)
Lib Dem 24.6 (+3.1)
UKIP 17.6 (+17.6)
Lab 3.7 (+3.7)

Lambeth, Tulse Hill (changes in italics since July 2010 by-election)

Lab 69.3 (+17.6) (+17.1)
Lib Dem 12.2 (-15.7) (-19.3)
Green 7.8 (-3.6) (-3.0)
TUSC 3.3 (+3.3) (+3.3)
Con 3.3 (-5.7) (-0.7)
UKIP 2.8 (+2.8) (+1.3)
Ind 0.9
SPGB 0.5 (+0.5)

North Somerset, Weston-super-Mare North Worle

Ind Mead 25.5
Con 22.6 (-26.4)
Lab 21.4 (-2.6)
Lib Dem 15.4 (-11.5)
UKIP 10.6 (+10.6)
Ind Ling 4.5

East Northamptonshire, Thrapston Market

Con 43.1 (-9.3)
Ind 22.9
Lab 18.1 (+18.1)
UKIP 15.9 (+15.9)

Kingston-upon-Thames, Beverley

Con 35.1 (+2.7)
Lib Dem 25.9 (-15.9)
Lab 24.4 (+13.1)
UKIP 7.6 (+7.6)
Green 7.0 (-4.6)

[countydurhamboy]

Awful Lib Dem results in London, especially in losing Kingston, I thought they were holding up well in the south west boroughs?

Labour are doing very well though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Kingston by-election was caused by the resignation of the then Leader of the council, a resignation triggered by his arrest for possession of child pornography.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regarding Thrapston, John Dryden was born just up the road.

[countydurhamboy]

The Kingston by-election was caused by the resignation of the then Leader of the council, a resignation triggered by his arrest for possession of child pornography.

Thanks, not surprising then. Awful man.

Turnout in that ward was 42%!

[ObserverIE]

The Kingston by-election was caused by the resignation of the then Leader of the council, a resignation triggered by his arrest for possession of child pornography.

Always toxic for the defending party. I think Labour lost a seat to the Tories in Darlington just before the 2012 local elections in similar circumstances.

[MaxQue]

Wow, someone won with 25%.

[doktorb]

Wow, someone won with 25%.

And *still* people defend FPTP!

[ObserverIE]

Ribble Valley, Littlemoor

Lib Dem 44.9 (+6.8)
Ind 31.0
Con 13.6 (-24.4)
Lab 10.6 (-13.4)

Amber Valley, Codnor and Waingroves

Lab 52.3 (-5.8)
UKIP 23.5 (+9.6)
Con 20.6 (-3.3)
Lib Dem 3.7 (+3.7)

Caerphilly, Penyrheol

PC 51.9 (+8.2)
Lab 30.9 (-3.9)
TUSC 9.7 (+3.2)
Con 7.5 (+7.5)

Worcestershire, St Mary's

Con 28.0 (+2.9)
UKIP 24.6 (-2.8)
Lab 18.8 (-4.6)
IHHC 17.8 (+2.3)
Ind 10.8

Norfolk, Thetford West

Lab 45.2 (+9.9)
UKIP 38.0 (+2.6)
Con 11.9 (-3.4)
Ind 3.3
Green 1.7 (-1.1)

Lib Dem gain Littlemoor from Con
Con gain St Mary's from UKIP
Lab gain Thetford West from UKIP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice result in Thetford.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

More of an explanation now than a preview, and the results have exposed some shocking lack of research, but here goes.

There are six by-elections on 1st August 2013.  Top of the bill is a by-election to the Welsh Assembly for the Isle of Anglesey Ynys Môn constituency, being defended by Plaid Cymru who also have a council-level by-election to defend at the other end of the country in Caerphilly.  In England, UKIP have two recently-gained county council seats to defend in Kidderminster and Thetford, the Tories will try to keep a marginal district council seat in Clitheroe and Labour will seek a successor for a district council seat in Derbyshire.

YNYS MÔN, National Assembly for Wales; caused by the resignation of Plaid Cymru AM Ieuan Wyn Jones to head the new Menai Science Park.  The MP for Anglesey from 1987 to 2001, Jones had served on the Welsh Assembly since its inception in 1999.  He was leader of Plaid Cymru from 2000 to 2012, and served as Deputy First Minister of Wales from 2007 to 2011 as Plaid went into coalition with Labour in the Assembly.

This seat is easy to define: it is Isle of Anglesey and associated islands, of which the most important is Holy Island.  Relatively low-lying compared to much of north Wales, Anglesey's economy is based on agriculture (the island may have the world's northernmost olive grove) and tourism, although there is a fair amount of industry, notably the Wylfa nuclear power station near Amlwch on the north coast; Amlwch itself is an industrial town built to serve major nineteenth-century copper mines on Parys Mountain.  The town of Holyhead on Holy Island is one of the UK's most important ferry ports with more than two million passengers every year using the ferries to and from Dublin and Dun Laoghaire, but the aluminium smelter which formerly underpinned the town's economy (and was the UK's single biggest user of electricity) closed down in 2009.  Back on the main island is RAF Valley, home of a fast jet training school and search and rescue helicopters and
presently employing the Duke of Cambridge, although he is on paternity leave at the moment following the birth of Prince George last week.

While Holyhead and Valley are essentially a self-contained economic unit, much of the eastern half of the island, including the tourist centre of Beaumaris, is within the orbit of the city of Bangor on the mainland, to which Anglesey is connected by two bridges: Thomas Telford's Menai Suspension Bridge, built to carry the London-Holyhead road and the world's first modern suspension bridge, and Robert Stephenson's Britannia Bridge, rebuilt in 1970 following a fire to carry both rail and road traffic to the island.

At the centre of the island is Llangefni, home to the much-maligned county council which became so consumed by infighting and corruption that the Welsh Government suspended its powers in 2011 and appointed commissioners to run the island from Cardiff.  Following new elections in 2013 the councillors are back in control, the majority Independent group running the council in coalition with Labour.

Anglesey is one of the longest-surviving constituencies with unchanged boundaries, the island having formed one constituency since 1885 when the Beaumaris District of Boroughs (one of the more notorious pocket boroughs, controlled by the Viscounts Bulkeley and the Williams-Bulkeley baronets) was abolished.  The first MP for the united island was Richard Davies of the Liberals, a radical nonconformist from a timber-importing family who had sat for the county constituency since 1864 and had recently been appointed Lord-Lieutenant of Anglesey.  Davies retired in 1886, citing opposition to Irish Home Rule, and was replaced by Thomas Lewis, who handed over in 1895 to Sir Ellis Ellis-Griffith, 1st baronet, a barrister who served in Asquith's administration.  (I recently discovered an article by Sir Ellis in the 1925 Daily Mail
Yearbook in which he bemoaned the sparse attendance in the House and the busy workload of modern MPs; an
article which could probably be printed today with very few changes!)  Sir Ellis was defeated in the 1918 election by Sir Owen Thomas who became the island's first Labour MP.  Sir Owen died in 1923 and Labour lost the by-election back to the Liberal candidate Sir Robert Thomas, a ship and insurance broker who had previously been MP for Wrexham from 1918 and lost to Sir Owen in the 1922 general election.  Sir Robert handed over in 1929 to Wales' first female MP, Lady Megan Lloyd George.  Despite (or perhaps because of) Lady Megan's opposition to the National Government she had little trouble being re-elected until after the Second World War, the 1945 election being the first of three hard-fought contests with the Labour candidate, Holyhead town clerk Cledwyn Hughes, who finally emerged victorious in the 1951 election.

Cledwyn Hughes had a long and rather successful political career, peaking in the second Wilson administration in which he served in the Cabinet as Welsh Secretary and Agriculture Minister; later, as Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos, he was leader of the opposition in the House of Lords.  At his first re-election in 1955 both the Conservatives and the Liberals nominated candidates called Hughes to stand against him, which must have been confusing; later, in 1964, all three opposition candidates were called Jones.

Since 1951 Anglesey has settled into an interesting pattern with its election results: no MP who seeks re-election on the island is ever defeated, but no retiring MP has passed the seat on to a candidate of the same party.  So on Cledwyn Hughes' retirement in 1979 Labour (who stood the former Cardiganshire MP Elystan Morgan), lost the seat to Brighton councillor and TA major Keith Best who became the island's first (and so far only) Conservative MP since 1725.  Best proved to be a scandal-prone figure: he was involved in a road accident which killed his PA and, although he was cleared of responsibility for that, he was later fined (and served a few days in prison) after being found guilty of fraud over the BT share allocation.  If anything, Best was more influential after leaving Parliament in 1987, being named by the Guardian in 2003 as one of the hundred most influential people in UK public services: at the time he was chief exec of the Immigration
Advisory Service and chairman of the council of the Electoral Reform Society.

Best was replaced by Ieuan Wyn Jones, the island's first (and so far only) Plaid Cymru MP.  Jones served as the MP until 2001 when he stood down from Wesminster to concentrate on the Assembly; true to form Plaid failed to keep the seat, and since 2001 the MP for the island has been Labour's Albert Owen, a former merchant seaman and CAB advisor who had been runner-up to Jones in the first Assembly election in 1999.

At Senedd level Jones has won all four elections on the island, the closest result coming in 2003 when he was less than nine points ahead of the Conservatives' Peter Rogers, list Assembly member for North Wales in the first Assembly.  Rogers, who had been demoted to an unwinnable position on the list at that election in favour of the fuel tax protestor Brynle Williams, quickly broke with the Conservatives and stood for the island as an independent in the next three Westminster and Senedd elections, finishing runner-up again in the 2007 election at which Jones increased his majority.  Without Rogers on the ballot the Conservatives narrowly took second place from Labour at the 2011 Assembly election.

This is the first by-election to the Assembly since Blaenau Gwent in 2006, and there is a lot at stake: since the 2011 elections Labour have held exactly half of the 60 seats, and a Labour gain in this by-election would give them an absolute majority in the Assembly for the first time.

Defending the seat for Plaid Cymru is the former BBC/S4C newsreader Rhun ap Iorwerth, from the Anglesey hamlet of Llangristiolus.  The Conservative candidate is Rev Neil Fairlamb, the Rector of Beaumaris.  Labour's candidate is Tal Michael from Rhos-on-Sea, ex-Islington councillor, son of the former First Minister of Wales Alun Michael and Labour's candidate in the North Wales Police and Crime Commissioner election last year.  That went well.  The Lib Dems have also selected a candidate from the mainland, Gwynedd (and former Barking and Dagenham) councillor Steve Churchman, re-elected unopposed in the 2012 election by Dolbenmaen division.  Also standing are Nathan Gill, a businessman from Llangefni, for UKIP, and Kathrine Jones, from Bethesda on the mainland, for the Socialist Labour Party.

Rhun ap Iorwerth (PC)
Stephen Churchman (LD)
Neil Fairlamb (C)
Nathan Gill (UKIP)
Kathrine Jones (Soc Lab)
Tal Michael (Lab)

May 2011 result PC 9969 C 7032 Lab 6307 LD 759
May 2007 result PC 10653 Ind 6261 Lab 4681 C 3480 LD 912 UKIP 833
May 2003 result PC 9452 C 7197 Lab 6024 LD 2089 UKIP 481
May 1999 result PC 16469 Lab 7181 C 6031 LD 1630

Westminster results
May 2010 result Lab 11490 PC 9029 C 7744 LD 2592 Ind 2225 UKIP 1201 Chr 163
May 2005 result Lab 12278 PC 11036 Ind 5216 C 3915 LD 2418 UKIP 367 Legalise Cannabis Alliance 232
June 2001 result Lab 11906 PC 11106 C 7653 LD 2772 UKIP 359 Ind 222
May 1997 result PC 15756 Lab 13275 C 8569 LD 1537 Referendum Party 793
Apr 1992 result PC 15984 C 14878 Lab 10126 LD 1891 Natural Law Party 182
June 1987 result PC 18580 C 14282 Lab 7252 SDP/All 2863
June 1983 result C 15017 PC 13333 Lab 6791 SDP/All 4947
May 1979 result C 15100 Lab 12283 PC 7863 Lib 3500
Oct 1974 result Lab 13947 C 7975 PC 6410 Lib 5182
Feb 1974 result Lab 14652 C 8898 PC 7610 Lib 3882
June 1970 result Lab 13966 C 9220 PC 7140 Lib 2013
March 1966 result Lab 14874 C 9576 PC 2596
Oct 1964 result Lab 13553 C 7016 Lib 5730 PC 1817
Oct 1959 result Lab 13249 C 7005 PC 4121 Lib 3796
May 1955 result Lab 13986 Lib 9413 C 3333 PC 2183
Oct 1951 result Lab 11814 Lib 11219 C 6366
Feb 1950 result Lib 13688 Lab 11759 C 3919
July 1945 result Lib 12610 Lab 11529
Nov 1935 result Lib 11227 C 7045 Lab 6959
Oct 1931 result Lib 14839 C 10612
May 1929 result Lib 13181 Lab 7563 U 5917
Oct 1924 result Lib 13407 Lab 7580
Dec 1923 result Lib unopposed
Apr 1923 by-election Lib 11116 Lab 6368 U 3385
Nov 1922 result Lab 11929 Nat Lib 10067
Dec 1918 result Lab 9038 Coalition Lib 8898
Dec 1910 result Lib unopposed
Jan 1910 result Lib 5888 C 2436
1906 result Lib 5356 C 2638
1900 result Lib unopposed
1895 result Lib 4224 C 3197
1892 result Lib 4420 C 2702
1886 result Lib 3727 C 3420
1885 result Lib 4412 C 3462

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

PENYRHEOL, Caerphilly county borough council; caused by the death of Plaid Cymru councillor Anne Collins at the age of 72.  Retired after a long career in the health service, Collins was first elected to Penyrheol community council in 1985 and had been a Caerphilly councillor since 1999, serving as Mayor of Caerphilly in 2008/9.

Ynys Môn isn't the only seat that Plaid have to worry about this week.  One of Wales' rare four-member council divisions, the Penyrheol division covers a series of residential areas in the lower Aber Valley; Pen-yr-heol itself climbing up the eastern hillside of the valley, Trecenydd and Energyln on the other hillside, and the tiny hamlet of Groes-wen.  The division has the same boundaries as the Penyrheol, Trecenydd and Energlyn community council.

This division has been a consistent stronghold for Plaid Cymru for some years, thanks partly to the popularity of local councillor Lindsay Whittle, twice Plaid leader of Caerphilly council and since 2011 a member of the Welsh Assembly for South Wales East.  Whittle consistently beats the alphabet to come of the poll here.  In the 2004 and 2008 elections his Plaid slate won all four seats in the division rather comfortably, but Labour gained one of the seats in 2012 to split the division's representation.

The defending Plaid candidate is Steve Skivens, a retired firefighter from Energlyn who was the defeated Plaid candidate in 2010.  His main opponent will be Labour's Gareth Pratt, a teacher.  Tory candidate Cameron Muir-Jones, from Energlyn, will be looking for a better result than the 24 votes he polled in last year's New Tredegar by-election.  The ballot paper is completed by Jaime Davies for the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition.

Parliamentary and Assembly constituency: Caerphilly
Assembly electoral region: South Wales East
ONS Travel to Work Area: Cardiff

Jaime Davies (TUSC)
Cameron Muir-Jones (C)
Gareth Pratt (Lab)
Steve Skivens (PC)

May 2012 result PC 1361/1196/1110/992 Lab 1074/917/871/851 Ind 398 TUSC 174
May 2008 result PC 1924/1687/1672/1491 Lab 1021/993/913 Ind 628
June 2004 result PC 1753/1549/1472/1384 Lab 1055/1048/1024/840 Ind 479


THETFORD WEST, Norfolk county council; caused by the resignation of newly-elected UK Independence Party councillor Peter Georgiou after it was revealed that he is banned from entering a local supermarket due to shoplifting.

Thetford West, as you might guess, covers the west of the town of Thetford together with a large part of Thetford Forest to the west of the town.  A large market town on the Cambridge-Norwich road and the Ely-Norwich railway line, Thetford was the capital of the Kings of East Anglia during the Heptarchy and the seat of a bishopric, which moved to Norwich during the early twelfth century.  More modern characters commemorated with statues in the town are Thomas Paine, whose statue depicts him holding a copy of his Rights of Man, held upside down; and Capt George Mainwaring of the Warmington-on-Sea home guard.  Many of the outside scenes in the BBC comedy series Dad's Army were filmed in and around Thetford.

County elections in the town have also been funny affairs.  Thetford West division was solidly Labour in 2005, the party polling 48% and the Conservative/Lib Dem opposition being evenly divided.  In 2009 the order of the three parties completely reversed with the Lib Dems finishing on top with 37%, 52 votes ahead of the Conservatives who were themselves only 176 votes ahead of Labour.  But the 2013 result was even stranger: the defending Liberal Democrats crashed to fifth place and the Conservatives were well out of it, the campaign turning into a battle between Labour and UKIP, UKIP coming out on top by just one vote and winning with 35% of the vote.

You really can't get any more marginal than that, and with UKIP having lost a by-election last month in which another of their councillors resigned due to a scandal the omens are not good for them.  Their new candidate is John Newton, who is retired after running a local engineering business for 25 years.  Labour have re-selected Terry Jermy, district and town councillor for Thetford-Saxon ward and still only 27 years old, to try and find the two extra votes he needs to win.  Tristan Ashby, an ex-firefighter and Attleborough town councillor, tries again for the Tories after his third place in May.  The Greens are the third party to reselect their candidate from May, Sandra Walmsley in their case, while the Lib Dem candidate from May Danny Jeffrey is also standing again, but this time as an Independent.

Parliamentary constituency: South West Norfolk
Breckland district council wards: Thetford-Abbey, Thetford-Saxon
ONS Travel to Work Area: Thetford and Mildenhall

Tristan Ashby (C) (tristanashby.info)
Danny Jeffrey (Ind)
Terry Jermy (Lab) (jermysjournal.blogspot.com @CllrTerryJermy)
John Newton (UKIP)
Sandra Walmsley (Grn)

May 2013 result UKIP 814 Lab 813 C 353 CPA 134 LD 122 Grn 64
June 2009 result LD 934 C 882 Lab 706
May 2005 result Lab 2101 C 1268 LD 1027


ST MARY'S, Worcestershire county council; caused by the death of newly-elected UK Independence Party councillor Tony Baker at the age of 69.

For the second UKIP defence this week we travel to a very urban division: St Mary's division covers the western side of the Worcestershire town of Kidderminster.  Fifteen miles north of Worcester, Kidderminster has an interesting mix of industries, with bespoke carpets, solid-fuel rocket motors and luxury yachts all manufactured in the town; the red carpet used at the wedding of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge came from Kidderminster.

Kidderminster is of course associated with the Health Concern movement, opposed to the closure of the casualty department at Kidderminster Hospital, which ran the Wyre Forest district council for several years.  St Mary's, however, is not one of Health Concern's better areas.  In May 2005 the division voted Labour in a close three-way split, Labour being 73 votes ahead of the Conservatives who were themselves only 130 votes ahead of the Lib Dems.  Labour won with just 28% of the vote.  The 2009 election saw a comfortable Conservative gain with the Lib Dems winning a close race for second place ahead of Health Concern and UKIP.  In 2013 UKIP went from fourth to first in another close three-way split, UKIP winning with just 27% of the vote, 50 votes ahead of the Conservatives who were 38 votes ahead of Labour.

Since the May elections UKIP have already lost one of their Worcestershire county council seats in the Stourport-on-Severn by-election after their councillor was revealed to have anti-Semitic and other very dubious stuff on his Facebook; while no-one is at fault for this by-election the party will still have to perform well to hold the seat.  Their new candidate is Peter Willoughby.  The Tories' Nathan Desmond, who was county councillor for the division from 2009 until May, wants his seat back.  Another former county councillor standing is Mumshad Ahmed, who gained the town's St Georges and St Oswald division from the continuing Liberal Party in 2009; however, that was as a Conservative and now Ahmed is standing for Labour, as he did in this division in May.  Health Concern have also renominated their May candidate, Graham Ballinger, and independent candidate Helen Dyke completes the ballot paper.

Parliamentary constituency: Wyre Forest
Wyre Forest district council wards: Habberley and Blakebrook (part); Sutton Park (part)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Kidderminster

Mumshad Ahmed (Lab)
Graham Ballinger (Health Concern)
Nathan Desmond (C)
Helen Dyke (Ind)
Peter Willoughby (UKIP)

May 2013 result UKIP 595 C 545 Lab 507 Health Concern 336 Lib 140 Grn 46
June 2009 result C 817 LD 536 Health Concern 477 UKIP 431 Lab 270
May 2005 result Lab 1279 C 1206 LD 1076 Health Concern 732 Lib 235

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

CODNOR AND WAINGROVES, Amber Valley district council, Derbyshire; caused by the death of Labour councillor George Parkes at the age of 68.  A manager at a Derby metal company, he had first been elected to Amber Valley council in 2010 and served for six years as chairman of Codnor parish council.

"There is in the North a single-line system of tramcars which boldly leaves the county town and plunges off into the black, industrial countryside, up hill and down dale, through the long, ugly villages of workmen's houses, over canals and railways, past churches perched high and nobly over the smoke and shadows, through dark, grimy, cold little market-places, tilting away in a rush past cinemas and shops down to the hollow where the collieries are, then up again, past a little rural church under the ash-trees, on in a bolt to the terminus, the last little ugly place of industry, the cold little town that shivers on the edge of the wild, gloomy country beyond. There the blue and creamy coloured tramcar seems to pause and purr with curious satisfaction. But in a few minutes—the clock on the turret of the Co-operative Wholesale Society's shops gives the time—away it starts once more on the adventure. Again there are the reckless swoops downhill,
bouncing the loops; again the chilly wait in the hill-top market-place: again the breathless slithering round the precipitous drop under the church: again the patient halts at the loops, waiting for the outcoming car: so on and on, for two long hours, till at last the city looms beyond, the fat gasworks, the narrow factories draw near, we are in the sordid streets of the great town, once more we sidle to a standstill at our terminus, abashed by the great crimson and cream-coloured city cars, but still jerky, jaunty, somewhat daredevil, pert as a blue-tit out of a black colliery garden."
- DH Lawrence, 'Tickets, Please!'

Lawrence here was talking about the tram service from Nottingham to Ripley, known as the "Ripley Rattler", which passed through his home town of Eastwood and on to the next stop, the mining village of Codnor on the Nottingham-Matlock road and the last stop before Ripley.  The tram service, and the trolleybus that replaced it in the early 1930s, might have been useful if it had survived, for Codnor has not been bypassed and now suffers severe traffic problems.  In countryside at the edge of the village is the ruined Codnor Castle, a thirteenth-century construction of William Peverel (of the Peak), while the more recent mining legacy - opencast mining still goes on in the area - is commemorated by the Codnor Wheel, one of the late Cllr Parkes' achievements.  The Codnor and Waingroves ward combines Codnor with Waingroves, a suburb of Ripley, and the Cross Hill area on the road to Heanor.

The ward has consistently voted Labour over the last decade, but hasn't always been safe; the Labour majority over the Conservatives was cut to just one vote in 2008 and the Tories were only 22 votes behind at the 2010 election.  As in many industrial areas, the formation of the Coalition led to a large rise in the Labour vote and the 2012 result shows that this ward is now very safe for Labour.

Defending for Labour is Isobel Harry who was Mayor of Ripley in 2004/5.  Another former Mayor of Ripley standing is the Conservatives' Ron Ashton, who lost his district council seat in Ripley and Marehay ward last year.  The UKIP candidate is Garry Smith from Waingroves, and the ballot is completed by the Lib Dems' Keith Falconbridge who gives an address in the Bulwell area of Nottingham.

Parliamentary constituency: Amber Valley
Derbyshire county council division: Heanor Central (Cross Hill); Ripley East and Codnor (rest of ward)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Derby

Ron Ashton (C)
Keith Falconbridge (LD)
Isobel Harry (Lab)
Garry Smith (UKIP)

May 2012 result Lab 825 C 339 UKIP 198 BNP 59
May 2010 result Lab 1159 C 1127 BNP 391
May 2008 result Lab 573 C 572 BNP 228
May 2006 result Lab 676 C 424 LD 183
June 2004 result Lab 1029 C 728
May 2002 result Lab 871 C 430


LITTLEMOOR, Ribble Valley district council, Lancashire; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Christine Conner for personal reasons.  Conner was first elected by Littlemoor ward in 2011 having previously been a councillor for Read and Simonstone ward.

The Littlemoor ward is south-eastern Clitheroe, a mostly residential area at the bottom of Pendle Hill, next to the road which climbs up to the Nick o' Pendle before descending into the treacle-mining stronghold of Sabden.

Clitheroe is generally a strong Lib Dem area, but the party is on the wane here; while the yellows still topped the poll in the 2011 election they lost one of the two seats in this ward to the Tories' Christine Bartrop (as she then was).  Recent by-elections in Clitheroe, and the gain of the town's county council seat from the Lib Dems in May, are further encouraging signs for the local Conservatives.

The by-election is likely to be a close fight between Jean Forshaw for the Conservatives, a first-time candidate, and Clitheroe town councillor Jim Shervey who was the defeated Lib Dem candidate in 2011.  Also standing are Liz Webbe for Labour and independent candidate Steve Rush.

Parliamentary constituency: Ribble Valley
Lancashire county council division: Clitheroe
ONS Travel to Work Area: Blackburn

Jean Forshaw (C)
Steve Rush (Ind)
James Shervey (LD)
Liz Webbe (Lab)

May 2011 result LD 361/305 C 343/321 Lab 226/193
May 2007 result LD 552/496 C 318/311 Ind 111
May 2003 result LD 755/700 C 326 BNP 292

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Really approve of the use of Lawrence, btw.