British Columbia provincial election 2013

[MaxQue]

NDP leads by 465, with 7 boxes to come in V-Point Grey (Clark's riding)

[MaxQue]

Still 7 boxes to report, but NDP leads by 316.

[MaxQue]

5 boxes left, NDP leads by 408 votes in Point Grey.

[LastVoter]

How the f uck did this happen?

[DINGO Joe]

So, for those who really don't follow Canada, can anyone give a brief history of bad polling in Canada?  From reading this thread, it doesn't seem like there was the slightest reason to expect anything like this.  And despite an apparent history of bad polling, the posters here, who seem quite knowledgeable and  follow this day in day out, seemed to take the polls as as gospel, which given their consistency seemed reasonable except....

[Holmes]

Wow. Haha. Wow. I wasn't following this election because of school, then work, but wooooooooow.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, for those who really don't follow Canada, can anyone give a brief history of bad polling in Canada?  From reading this thread, it doesn't seem like there was the slightest reason to expect anything like this.  And despite an apparent history of bad polling, the posters here, who seem quite knowledgeable and  follow this day in day out, seemed to take the polls as as gospel, which given their consistency seemed reasonable except....

I was a little hesitant, ever since last year's Alberta election which was just as big of a surprise.

While I went to bed nearly in tears, I can say I feel smug at least about Clark losing her seat. LOL. It's been a while since that has happened (Premier loses seat despite winning election).

The Swing to the Liberals was 0.62% which should have actually netted them 0 seats. However, they gained a net 2 seats. Elections with small swings result in both parties gaining seats, the Liberals gained 6 and the NDP 4. Biggest pick up for the Liberals was Surrey-Fleetwood (5.64% needed). Vancouver-Point Grey was the biggest for the NDP (5.05% needed).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 1992 election over here all over again. Sh!t, sh!t, sh!t.

[minionofmidas]

All the Canadian pollster's with all their staff should be taken out and shot.

One should be symbolically pardoned.

[DC Al Fine]

So, for those who really don't follow Canada, can anyone give a brief history of bad polling in Canada?  From reading this thread, it doesn't seem like there was the slightest reason to expect anything like this.  And despite an apparent history of bad polling, the posters here, who seem quite knowledgeable and  follow this day in day out, seemed to take the polls as as gospel, which given their consistency seemed reasonable except....

Canadian voters are much more "swingy"

[DC Al Fine]

So by-election for Clark or will she step down?

[RogueBeaver]

So by-election for Clark or will she step down?

By-election, obviously. She pulled off a miracle and certainly deserves it. Like Charest, she should've chosen discretion over valour and run somewhere safer even if away from home (is VPG even her home base?). Some people suggested a heavy break of undecideds to the Grits.

[DC Al Fine]

So by-election for Clark or will she step down?

By-election, obviously. She pulled off a miracle and certainly deserves it. Like Charest, she should've chosen discretion over valour and run somewhere safer even if away from home (is VPG even her home base?). Some people suggested a heavy break of undecideds to the Grits.

Her home base is Port Moody, which isn't much better than VPG. Still, I'm surprised she didn't give  an MLA from some place like Kelowna so she could have a safe seat. She's going to have to now anyways.

[Hatman 🍁]

All the Canadian pollster's with all their staff should be taken out and shot.

One should be symbolically pardoned.

I hope you are referring to me

[DC Al Fine]

All the Canadian pollster's with all their staff should be taken out and shot.

One should be symbolically pardoned.

I hope you are referring to me

He certainly wasn't referring to Forum.

[RogueBeaver]

I guess Forum is the provincial pollster we rely on now.

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess Forum is the provincial pollster we rely on now.

I agree. It's funny how you were bashing them not to long ago. But they were the closest in both BC and Alberta.

[RogueBeaver]

Once could be a fluke. Twice not so much. But I'll eat crow with just about everyone else.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have some ideas as to what went wrong:

*"Silent majority" - a large percentage of centre-right people who don't care about politics that much, don't follow it to a high degree, don't do polls, but get out to vote. I think there is a higher percentage of people like this in BC and Alberta. From my times as an interviewer at EKOS, I can tell you that BC and Alberta are the most hostile provinces to pollsters.

*Undecideds went Liberal - seems to me that just like in Alberta, there were lots of undecideds, and they broke heavily to the devil they knew- the Liberals. One thing that pollsters could have done is look at how the undecideds were leaning and extrapolate for all undecideds. It's risky business, but I think it would have been more accurate in this case.

*Lying respondents - with the Liberals so unpopular and using dirty campaign tactics (well, negative ads), respondents were less likely to admit voting Liberal. Perhaps respondents in BC and Alberta are more likely to lie anyways due to just being hostile/distrustful of pollsters. That might account for why the lied in online surveys and IVR surveys.

[RogueBeaver]

All our politicians should also discard the quaint notion that one can remain entirely positive, or more accurately that one can let attacks go unanswered. All jugular all the time, period.

[Hatman 🍁]

All our politicians should also discard the quaint notion that one can remain entirely positive, or more accurately that one can let attacks go unanswered. All jugular all the time, period.

Maybe. But there is a certain nobility to being entirely positive. Maybe it's better to be positive and lose then to be negative and win.

[Krago]

The NDP lost because they didn't make implementation of a Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) fair voting system the centerpiece of their campaign.

[Sorry, couldn't keep a straight face.]

[Hatman 🍁]

Another reason for wrong polls: low voter turnout. Perhaps Disaffected voters chose to stay home rather than vote NDP?

[RogueBeaver]

Voter turnout was 52%.

[Qavvavak]

Another reason for wrong polls: low voter turnout. Perhaps Disaffected voters chose to stay home rather than vote NDP?

Maybe reason this news headline "Voters with Indian Status cards turned away from polling station"

note: cant post the link here to over 20 posts. but you can go google from above title.