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Author Topic: Predictions of Future Electoral Votes and Trends of States  (Read 2678 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: June 20, 2013, 05:44:18 am »
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I want to make predictions of the amount of electoral votes each state will have based on current growth and estimates. After that we can have a discussion on the states that are currently losing/gaining population and how they can affect the trends of their politics. So, feel free to make your predictions and talk about different states/trends.

 State                 Electoral Votes Now              Electoral Votes 2020                     Gain
Alabama                          9                                      8                                     -1
Alaska                             3                                     3                                      0
Arizona                           11                                    12                                     +1
Arkansas                         6                                      6                                      0
California                         55                                    55                                     0
Colorado                          9                                     10                                     +1
Connecticut                     7                                      7                                      0
Delaware                         3                                      3                                      0
D.C.                                3                                     3                                       0
Florida                            29                                    31                                     +2
Georgia                           16                                    17                                     +1
Hawaii                             4                                      4                                      0
Idaho                              4                                      4                                      0
Illinois                             20                                    18                                    -2
Indiana                            11                                   11                                     0
Iowa                               6                                      6                                      0
Kansas                             6                                     6                                      0
Kentucky                          8                                     8                                      0                                                                                                                                               
Louisiana                          8                                      8                                      0
Maine                              4                                      4                                      0
Maryland                          10                                    10                                     0
Massachusetts                  11                                    11                                     0
Michigan                          16                                    14                                     -2
Minnesota                        10                                    10                                      0
Mississippi                        6                                       5                                      -1
Missouri                           10                                     10                                     0
Montana                           3                                      4                                      +1
Nebraska                          5                                       5                                      0
Nevada                            6                                       6                                      0
New Hampshire                  4                                       4                                      0
New Jersey                       14                                     14                                     0
New Mexico                      5                                        5                                      0
New York                         29                                      27                                    -2
North Carolina                   15                                      17                                    +2
North Dakota                    3                                        3                                      0
Ohio                                18                                      16                                    -2
Oklahoma                          7                                       7                                      0
Oregon                             7                                       7                                      0
Pennsylvania                     20                                      18                                   -2
Rhode Island                      4                                       3                                     -1
South Carolina                    9                                       9                                      0       
South Dakota                     3                                       3                                      0
Tennessee                         11                                     11                                     0
Texas                               38                                      41                                    +3
Utah                                 6                                       7                                      +1
Vermont                            3                                       3                                      0
Virginia                             13                                      14                                    +1
Washington                       12                                      13                                    +1
West Virginia                      5                                        4                                     -1                                       
Wisconsin                          10                                      10                                    0
Wyoming                            3                                        3                                     0

Again, these are just guesses and are not meant to be taken seriously.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2013, 05:55:01 am »
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Here's my guess for the 2030s electoral map.

« Last Edit: June 20, 2013, 05:57:38 am by Formerly Californian Tony »Logged

ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2013, 05:59:29 am »
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Here's my guess for the 2030s electoral map.



I would say that's on target, I know this is stupid but how do you post a map?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2013, 06:31:57 am »
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Use this tool (http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php) to edit State colors and shades. You have to edit the image code manually for EV numbers though.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2013, 06:45:51 am »
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Use this tool (http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php) to edit State colors and shades. You have to edit the image code manually for EV numbers though.

Ok, thanks for the tool, but how do you edit the code? I see it here as the map link but how would you edit it?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2013, 08:17:58 am »
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this is my prediction on how states will gain and lose electoral votes over the next 7 or so years.


CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2013, 08:36:43 am »
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this is my prediction on how states will gain and lose electoral votes over the next 7 or so years.


CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1

Rhode Island might actually have 3 electoral votes for the first time in history!
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Governor Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: June 20, 2013, 10:10:53 am »
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http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166668.msg3562947#msg3562947


State               2010    2020  Change   N  +-  Margin Increase  8-Ball.
Alabama            6.737   6.506  -0.231   7   =     -18     191   Getting real close.
Alaska             1.117   1.169   0.052   1   =     271      99
Arizona            8.999   9.332   0.333   9   =     110     748   Still a possibility.
Arkansas           4.129   4.033  -0.096   4   =     351     151
California        52.369  53.356   0.987  54  +1      -2    3630   50/50.
Colorado           7.087   7.550   0.462   8  +1     -54     743   Not sure on 8th.
Connecticut        5.049   4.785  -0.263   5   =    -229      73
Delaware           1.358   1.381   0.023   1   =      94      88
Florida           26.435  27.673   1.238  28  +1    -190    2399   Somewhat safe for one.
Georgia           13.627  14.055   0.429  14   =     311    1076  
Hawaii             1.976   2.031   0.055   2   =     363     148
Idaho              2.260   2.270   0.010   2   =     176     129   3 not getting closer.
Illinois          18.043  17.012  -1.031  17  -1     338     200   Sure loss.
Indiana            9.128   8.791  -0.337   9   =    -241     241
Iowa               4.312   4.167  -0.145   4   =     247     123
Kansas             4.042   3.949  -0.092   4   =    -355     149
Kentucky           6.120   5.926  -0.194   6   =    -339     185
Louisiana          6.392   6.344  -0.048   6   =     107     313   Stops the bleeding.
Maine              1.933   1.809  -0.124   2   =    -251       4   Safe until 2050.
Maryland           8.131   8.215   0.084   8   =     201     510
Massachusetts      9.217   9.145  -0.073   9   =     253     449
Michigan          13.902  12.906  -0.996  13  -1    -338      -1   Sure loss.
Minnesota          7.472   7.386  -0.087   7  -1      72     343   Long shot to keep 8.
Mississippi        4.201   4.007  -0.194   4   =     371      79
Missouri           8.433   8.025  -0.408   8   =     347     148
Montana            1.478   1.472  -0.006   1   =      20      72   Will Bakken help?
Nebraska           2.615   2.606  -0.010   3   =     -88     133   Safe for now.
Nevada             3.829   3.908   0.079   4   =    -323     269   Not even a solid 4.
New Hampshire      1.917   1.813  -0.104   2   =    -255      19   Safe until 2050.
New Jersey        12.369  11.912  -0.457  12   =    -340     328
New Mexico         2.937   2.887  -0.050   3   =    -307     120   Losing ground.
New York          27.244  26.427  -0.817  26  -1       1     869   50/50 on loss of seat.
North Carolina    13.413  13.759   0.346  14  +1    -227    1001   14 is in the bag.
North Dakota       1.070   1.159   0.090   1   =     279     129
Ohio              16.224  15.108  -1.116  15  -1     268      34   One is certain.
Oklahoma           5.297   5.298   0.001   5   =     144     290
Oregon             5.408   5.431   0.023   5   =      42     313   Needs to heat it up.
Pennsylvania      17.862  16.942  -0.920  17  -1    -373     274   In the bag Wink
Rhode Island       1.562   1.449  -0.112   1  -1      38     -10   Pretty much a lock.
South Carolina     6.521   6.647   0.126   7   =    -126     453
South Dakota       1.249   1.280   0.031   1   =     178      89
Tennessee          8.935   8.954   0.019   9   =    -366     504
Texas             35.350  38.459   3.110  39  +3     -50    4322   3rd is not in the bag.
Utah               3.917   4.198   0.281   4   =     224     430   Faster than neighbors.
Vermont            1.012   0.959  -0.053   1   =     454       1
Virginia          11.258  11.568   0.310  12  +1     -76     855   Somewhat safe.
Washington         9.466   9.834   0.368  10   =    -276     801
West Virginia      2.652   2.483  -0.169   2  -1       8      11   Could still save 3rd.
Wisconsin          8.010   7.669  -0.340   8   =    -146     177   OK until 2030
Wyoming            0.937   0.954   0.017   1   =     458      59


If these projections hold up, New York might not lose a seat for the first time since the 1940 census when they stayed at 45 (47 EC votes).
« Last Edit: June 20, 2013, 10:16:43 am by Senator Gass3268 »Logged

ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: June 20, 2013, 11:32:53 am »
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http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166668.msg3562947#msg3562947


State               2010    2020  Change   N  +-  Margin Increase  8-Ball.
Alabama            6.737   6.506  -0.231   7   =     -18     191   Getting real close.
Alaska             1.117   1.169   0.052   1   =     271      99
Arizona            8.999   9.332   0.333   9   =     110     748   Still a possibility.
Arkansas           4.129   4.033  -0.096   4   =     351     151
California        52.369  53.356   0.987  54  +1      -2    3630   50/50.
Colorado           7.087   7.550   0.462   8  +1     -54     743   Not sure on 8th.
Connecticut        5.049   4.785  -0.263   5   =    -229      73
Delaware           1.358   1.381   0.023   1   =      94      88
Florida           26.435  27.673   1.238  28  +1    -190    2399   Somewhat safe for one.
Georgia           13.627  14.055   0.429  14   =     311    1076  
Hawaii             1.976   2.031   0.055   2   =     363     148
Idaho              2.260   2.270   0.010   2   =     176     129   3 not getting closer.
Illinois          18.043  17.012  -1.031  17  -1     338     200   Sure loss.
Indiana            9.128   8.791  -0.337   9   =    -241     241
Iowa               4.312   4.167  -0.145   4   =     247     123
Kansas             4.042   3.949  -0.092   4   =    -355     149
Kentucky           6.120   5.926  -0.194   6   =    -339     185
Louisiana          6.392   6.344  -0.048   6   =     107     313   Stops the bleeding.
Maine              1.933   1.809  -0.124   2   =    -251       4   Safe until 2050.
Maryland           8.131   8.215   0.084   8   =     201     510
Massachusetts      9.217   9.145  -0.073   9   =     253     449
Michigan          13.902  12.906  -0.996  13  -1    -338      -1   Sure loss.
Minnesota          7.472   7.386  -0.087   7  -1      72     343   Long shot to keep 8.
Mississippi        4.201   4.007  -0.194   4   =     371      79
Missouri           8.433   8.025  -0.408   8   =     347     148
Montana            1.478   1.472  -0.006   1   =      20      72   Will Bakken help?
Nebraska           2.615   2.606  -0.010   3   =     -88     133   Safe for now.
Nevada             3.829   3.908   0.079   4   =    -323     269   Not even a solid 4.
New Hampshire      1.917   1.813  -0.104   2   =    -255      19   Safe until 2050.
New Jersey        12.369  11.912  -0.457  12   =    -340     328
New Mexico         2.937   2.887  -0.050   3   =    -307     120   Losing ground.
New York          27.244  26.427  -0.817  26  -1       1     869   50/50 on loss of seat.
North Carolina    13.413  13.759   0.346  14  +1    -227    1001   14 is in the bag.
North Dakota       1.070   1.159   0.090   1   =     279     129
Ohio              16.224  15.108  -1.116  15  -1     268      34   One is certain.
Oklahoma           5.297   5.298   0.001   5   =     144     290
Oregon             5.408   5.431   0.023   5   =      42     313   Needs to heat it up.
Pennsylvania      17.862  16.942  -0.920  17  -1    -373     274   In the bag Wink
Rhode Island       1.562   1.449  -0.112   1  -1      38     -10   Pretty much a lock.
South Carolina     6.521   6.647   0.126   7   =    -126     453
South Dakota       1.249   1.280   0.031   1   =     178      89
Tennessee          8.935   8.954   0.019   9   =    -366     504
Texas             35.350  38.459   3.110  39  +3     -50    4322   3rd is not in the bag.
Utah               3.917   4.198   0.281   4   =     224     430   Faster than neighbors.
Vermont            1.012   0.959  -0.053   1   =     454       1
Virginia          11.258  11.568   0.310  12  +1     -76     855   Somewhat safe.
Washington         9.466   9.834   0.368  10   =    -276     801
West Virginia      2.652   2.483  -0.169   2  -1       8      11   Could still save 3rd.
Wisconsin          8.010   7.669  -0.340   8   =    -146     177   OK until 2030
Wyoming            0.937   0.954   0.017   1   =     458      59


If these projections hold up, New York might not lose a seat for the first time since the 1940 census when they stayed at 45 (47 EC votes).

Out of Curiosity, how are the house seats calculated (numbers for 2010/2020)? What numbers are used? Or is it only known by the census bureau?
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« Reply #9 on: June 20, 2013, 12:28:12 pm »
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http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166668.msg3562947#msg3562947


State               2010    2020  Change   N  +-  Margin Increase  8-Ball.
Alabama            6.737   6.506  -0.231   7   =     -18     191   Getting real close.
Alaska             1.117   1.169   0.052   1   =     271      99
Arizona            8.999   9.332   0.333   9   =     110     748   Still a possibility.
Arkansas           4.129   4.033  -0.096   4   =     351     151
California        52.369  53.356   0.987  54  +1      -2    3630   50/50.
Colorado           7.087   7.550   0.462   8  +1     -54     743   Not sure on 8th.
Connecticut        5.049   4.785  -0.263   5   =    -229      73
Delaware           1.358   1.381   0.023   1   =      94      88
Florida           26.435  27.673   1.238  28  +1    -190    2399   Somewhat safe for one.
Georgia           13.627  14.055   0.429  14   =     311    1076  
Hawaii             1.976   2.031   0.055   2   =     363     148
Idaho              2.260   2.270   0.010   2   =     176     129   3 not getting closer.
Illinois          18.043  17.012  -1.031  17  -1     338     200   Sure loss.
Indiana            9.128   8.791  -0.337   9   =    -241     241
Iowa               4.312   4.167  -0.145   4   =     247     123
Kansas             4.042   3.949  -0.092   4   =    -355     149
Kentucky           6.120   5.926  -0.194   6   =    -339     185
Louisiana          6.392   6.344  -0.048   6   =     107     313   Stops the bleeding.
Maine              1.933   1.809  -0.124   2   =    -251       4   Safe until 2050.
Maryland           8.131   8.215   0.084   8   =     201     510
Massachusetts      9.217   9.145  -0.073   9   =     253     449
Michigan          13.902  12.906  -0.996  13  -1    -338      -1   Sure loss.
Minnesota          7.472   7.386  -0.087   7  -1      72     343   Long shot to keep 8.
Mississippi        4.201   4.007  -0.194   4   =     371      79
Missouri           8.433   8.025  -0.408   8   =     347     148
Montana            1.478   1.472  -0.006   1   =      20      72   Will Bakken help?
Nebraska           2.615   2.606  -0.010   3   =     -88     133   Safe for now.
Nevada             3.829   3.908   0.079   4   =    -323     269   Not even a solid 4.
New Hampshire      1.917   1.813  -0.104   2   =    -255      19   Safe until 2050.
New Jersey        12.369  11.912  -0.457  12   =    -340     328
New Mexico         2.937   2.887  -0.050   3   =    -307     120   Losing ground.
New York          27.244  26.427  -0.817  26  -1       1     869   50/50 on loss of seat.
North Carolina    13.413  13.759   0.346  14  +1    -227    1001   14 is in the bag.
North Dakota       1.070   1.159   0.090   1   =     279     129
Ohio              16.224  15.108  -1.116  15  -1     268      34   One is certain.
Oklahoma           5.297   5.298   0.001   5   =     144     290
Oregon             5.408   5.431   0.023   5   =      42     313   Needs to heat it up.
Pennsylvania      17.862  16.942  -0.920  17  -1    -373     274   In the bag Wink
Rhode Island       1.562   1.449  -0.112   1  -1      38     -10   Pretty much a lock.
South Carolina     6.521   6.647   0.126   7   =    -126     453
South Dakota       1.249   1.280   0.031   1   =     178      89
Tennessee          8.935   8.954   0.019   9   =    -366     504
Texas             35.350  38.459   3.110  39  +3     -50    4322   3rd is not in the bag.
Utah               3.917   4.198   0.281   4   =     224     430   Faster than neighbors.
Vermont            1.012   0.959  -0.053   1   =     454       1
Virginia          11.258  11.568   0.310  12  +1     -76     855   Somewhat safe.
Washington         9.466   9.834   0.368  10   =    -276     801
West Virginia      2.652   2.483  -0.169   2  -1       8      11   Could still save 3rd.
Wisconsin          8.010   7.669  -0.340   8   =    -146     177   OK until 2030
Wyoming            0.937   0.954   0.017   1   =     458      59


If these projections hold up, New York might not lose a seat for the first time since the 1940 census when they stayed at 45 (47 EC votes).

Out of Curiosity, how are the house seats calculated (numbers for 2010/2020)? What numbers are used? Or is it only known by the census bureau?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huntington%E2%80%93Hill_method
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2013, 12:10:01 am »
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http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166668.msg3562947#msg3562947


State               2010    2020  Change   N  +-  Margin Increase  8-Ball.
Alabama            6.737   6.506  -0.231   7   =     -18     191   Getting real close.
Alaska             1.117   1.169   0.052   1   =     271      99
Arizona            8.999   9.332   0.333   9   =     110     748   Still a possibility.
Arkansas           4.129   4.033  -0.096   4   =     351     151
California        52.369  53.356   0.987  54  +1      -2    3630   50/50.
Colorado           7.087   7.550   0.462   8  +1     -54     743   Not sure on 8th.
Connecticut        5.049   4.785  -0.263   5   =    -229      73
Delaware           1.358   1.381   0.023   1   =      94      88
Florida           26.435  27.673   1.238  28  +1    -190    2399   Somewhat safe for one.
Georgia           13.627  14.055   0.429  14   =     311    1076  
Hawaii             1.976   2.031   0.055   2   =     363     148
Idaho              2.260   2.270   0.010   2   =     176     129   3 not getting closer.
Illinois          18.043  17.012  -1.031  17  -1     338     200   Sure loss.
Indiana            9.128   8.791  -0.337   9   =    -241     241
Iowa               4.312   4.167  -0.145   4   =     247     123
Kansas             4.042   3.949  -0.092   4   =    -355     149
Kentucky           6.120   5.926  -0.194   6   =    -339     185
Louisiana          6.392   6.344  -0.048   6   =     107     313   Stops the bleeding.
Maine              1.933   1.809  -0.124   2   =    -251       4   Safe until 2050.
Maryland           8.131   8.215   0.084   8   =     201     510
Massachusetts      9.217   9.145  -0.073   9   =     253     449
Michigan          13.902  12.906  -0.996  13  -1    -338      -1   Sure loss.
Minnesota          7.472   7.386  -0.087   7  -1      72     343   Long shot to keep 8.
Mississippi        4.201   4.007  -0.194   4   =     371      79
Missouri           8.433   8.025  -0.408   8   =     347     148
Montana            1.478   1.472  -0.006   1   =      20      72   Will Bakken help?
Nebraska           2.615   2.606  -0.010   3   =     -88     133   Safe for now.
Nevada             3.829   3.908   0.079   4   =    -323     269   Not even a solid 4.
New Hampshire      1.917   1.813  -0.104   2   =    -255      19   Safe until 2050.
New Jersey        12.369  11.912  -0.457  12   =    -340     328
New Mexico         2.937   2.887  -0.050   3   =    -307     120   Losing ground.
New York          27.244  26.427  -0.817  26  -1       1     869   50/50 on loss of seat.
North Carolina    13.413  13.759   0.346  14  +1    -227    1001   14 is in the bag.
North Dakota       1.070   1.159   0.090   1   =     279     129
Ohio              16.224  15.108  -1.116  15  -1     268      34   One is certain.
Oklahoma           5.297   5.298   0.001   5   =     144     290
Oregon             5.408   5.431   0.023   5   =      42     313   Needs to heat it up.
Pennsylvania      17.862  16.942  -0.920  17  -1    -373     274   In the bag Wink
Rhode Island       1.562   1.449  -0.112   1  -1      38     -10   Pretty much a lock.
South Carolina     6.521   6.647   0.126   7   =    -126     453
South Dakota       1.249   1.280   0.031   1   =     178      89
Tennessee          8.935   8.954   0.019   9   =    -366     504
Texas             35.350  38.459   3.110  39  +3     -50    4322   3rd is not in the bag.
Utah               3.917   4.198   0.281   4   =     224     430   Faster than neighbors.
Vermont            1.012   0.959  -0.053   1   =     454       1
Virginia          11.258  11.568   0.310  12  +1     -76     855   Somewhat safe.
Washington         9.466   9.834   0.368  10   =    -276     801
West Virginia      2.652   2.483  -0.169   2  -1       8      11   Could still save 3rd.
Wisconsin          8.010   7.669  -0.340   8   =    -146     177   OK until 2030
Wyoming            0.937   0.954   0.017   1   =     458      59


If these projections hold up, New York might not lose a seat for the first time since the 1940 census when they stayed at 45 (47 EC votes).

Out of Curiosity, how are the house seats calculated (numbers for 2010/2020)? What numbers are used? Or is it only known by the census bureau?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huntington%E2%80%93Hill_method

Thanks, still confusing but at least I know the formula.
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vern1988
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« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2013, 11:56:16 am »
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Anyone up for doing 2030?
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memphis
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« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2013, 12:34:34 pm »
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Are you guys using data or just pulling numbers out of your R-MI?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2013, 12:48:31 pm »
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2010


2020


2030
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« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2013, 02:15:47 pm »
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Poor Northeast!

I definitely think Texas will hit 40 electoral votes.
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vern1988
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« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2013, 03:49:45 pm »
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Are you guys using data or just pulling numbers out of your R-MI?

I was hoping for someone to use data to make the numbers.
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barfbag
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« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2013, 08:59:03 pm »
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http://

Here are the recent trend averages of the last 4 elections. Trends don't go on forever but can sometimes be enough to close a battleground state.
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« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2013, 06:15:26 am »
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Anyone up for doing 2030?

Mine was 2030.
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vern1988
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« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2013, 10:29:48 pm »
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Anyone up for doing 2030?

Mine was 2030.

Did you use data to get your EV numbers or was it a guess?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #19 on: June 29, 2013, 04:34:27 am »
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Anyone up for doing 2030?

Mine was 2030.

Did you use data to get your EV numbers or was it a guess?

A mix of both. I compared the growth rates of the past 5 censuses and used them to guesstimate the 2020 and 2030 ones. There's certainly. a lot of subjectivity involved, but I think I'm not too far from what will actually happen.
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