Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 24, 2014, 06:21:42 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Presidential Election Trends (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King)
| | |-+  Predictions of Future Electoral Votes and Trends of States
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Predictions of Future Electoral Votes and Trends of States  (Read 1444 times)
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7606
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -7.65

P P
View Profile
« on: June 20, 2013, 05:44:18 am »
Ignore

I want to make predictions of the amount of electoral votes each state will have based on current growth and estimates. After that we can have a discussion on the states that are currently losing/gaining population and how they can affect the trends of their politics. So, feel free to make your predictions and talk about different states/trends.

 State                 Electoral Votes Now              Electoral Votes 2020                     Gain
Alabama                          9                                      8                                     -1
Alaska                             3                                     3                                      0
Arizona                           11                                    12                                     +1
Arkansas                         6                                      6                                      0
California                         55                                    55                                     0
Colorado                          9                                     10                                     +1
Connecticut                     7                                      7                                      0
Delaware                         3                                      3                                      0
D.C.                                3                                     3                                       0
Florida                            29                                    31                                     +2
Georgia                           16                                    17                                     +1
Hawaii                             4                                      4                                      0
Idaho                              4                                      4                                      0
Illinois                             20                                    18                                    -2
Indiana                            11                                   11                                     0
Iowa                               6                                      6                                      0
Kansas                             6                                     6                                      0
Kentucky                          8                                     8                                      0                                                                                                                                               
Louisiana                          8                                      8                                      0
Maine                              4                                      4                                      0
Maryland                          10                                    10                                     0
Massachusetts                  11                                    11                                     0
Michigan                          16                                    14                                     -2
Minnesota                        10                                    10                                      0
Mississippi                        6                                       5                                      -1
Missouri                           10                                     10                                     0
Montana                           3                                      4                                      +1
Nebraska                          5                                       5                                      0
Nevada                            6                                       6                                      0
New Hampshire                  4                                       4                                      0
New Jersey                       14                                     14                                     0
New Mexico                      5                                        5                                      0
New York                         29                                      27                                    -2
North Carolina                   15                                      17                                    +2
North Dakota                    3                                        3                                      0
Ohio                                18                                      16                                    -2
Oklahoma                          7                                       7                                      0
Oregon                             7                                       7                                      0
Pennsylvania                     20                                      18                                   -2
Rhode Island                      4                                       3                                     -1
South Carolina                    9                                       9                                      0       
South Dakota                     3                                       3                                      0
Tennessee                         11                                     11                                     0
Texas                               38                                      41                                    +3
Utah                                 6                                       7                                      +1
Vermont                            3                                       3                                      0
Virginia                             13                                      14                                    +1
Washington                       12                                      13                                    +1
West Virginia                      5                                        4                                     -1                                       
Wisconsin                          10                                      10                                    0
Wyoming                            3                                        3                                     0

Again, these are just guesses and are not meant to be taken seriously.
Logged

2014 Senate Prediction
2014 Governor Predictions

Endorsements:

WI-1: Paul Ryan
Gov/Lt. Gov: Scott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch
AG: Tom Nelson
SoS: None
Treasurer: Matt Adamczyk
Ballot Measure: No
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31199
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2013, 05:55:01 am »
Ignore

Here's my guess for the 2030s electoral map.

« Last Edit: June 20, 2013, 05:57:38 am by Formerly Californian Tony »Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7606
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -7.65

P P
View Profile
« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2013, 05:59:29 am »
Ignore

Here's my guess for the 2030s electoral map.



I would say that's on target, I know this is stupid but how do you post a map?
Logged

2014 Senate Prediction
2014 Governor Predictions

Endorsements:

WI-1: Paul Ryan
Gov/Lt. Gov: Scott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch
AG: Tom Nelson
SoS: None
Treasurer: Matt Adamczyk
Ballot Measure: No
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31199
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2013, 06:31:57 am »
Ignore

Use this tool (http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php) to edit State colors and shades. You have to edit the image code manually for EV numbers though.
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7606
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -7.65

P P
View Profile
« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2013, 06:45:51 am »
Ignore

Use this tool (http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php) to edit State colors and shades. You have to edit the image code manually for EV numbers though.

Ok, thanks for the tool, but how do you edit the code? I see it here as the map link but how would you edit it?
Logged

2014 Senate Prediction
2014 Governor Predictions

Endorsements:

WI-1: Paul Ryan
Gov/Lt. Gov: Scott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch
AG: Tom Nelson
SoS: None
Treasurer: Matt Adamczyk
Ballot Measure: No
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2335
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.87, S: -2.09

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2013, 08:17:58 am »
Ignore

this is my prediction on how states will gain and lose electoral votes over the next 7 or so years.


CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1
Logged

What if in 2012, in this debate at the one minute mark, Governor Rick Perry had hit Governor Romney?  What would had happened, would the race had changed completely?  Find out in my new tl, based on one I had at one time, "The Punch Watched Around The World."
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7606
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -7.65

P P
View Profile
« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2013, 08:36:43 am »
Ignore

this is my prediction on how states will gain and lose electoral votes over the next 7 or so years.


CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1

Rhode Island might actually have 3 electoral votes for the first time in history!
Logged

2014 Senate Prediction
2014 Governor Predictions

Endorsements:

WI-1: Paul Ryan
Gov/Lt. Gov: Scott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch
AG: Tom Nelson
SoS: None
Treasurer: Matt Adamczyk
Ballot Measure: No
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4394
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: June 20, 2013, 10:10:53 am »
Ignore

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166668.msg3562947#msg3562947


State               2010    2020  Change   N  +-  Margin Increase  8-Ball.
Alabama            6.737   6.506  -0.231   7   =     -18     191   Getting real close.
Alaska             1.117   1.169   0.052   1   =     271      99
Arizona            8.999   9.332   0.333   9   =     110     748   Still a possibility.
Arkansas           4.129   4.033  -0.096   4   =     351     151
California        52.369  53.356   0.987  54  +1      -2    3630   50/50.
Colorado           7.087   7.550   0.462   8  +1     -54     743   Not sure on 8th.
Connecticut        5.049   4.785  -0.263   5   =    -229      73
Delaware           1.358   1.381   0.023   1   =      94      88
Florida           26.435  27.673   1.238  28  +1    -190    2399   Somewhat safe for one.
Georgia           13.627  14.055   0.429  14   =     311    1076  
Hawaii             1.976   2.031   0.055   2   =     363     148
Idaho              2.260   2.270   0.010   2   =     176     129   3 not getting closer.
Illinois          18.043  17.012  -1.031  17  -1     338     200   Sure loss.
Indiana            9.128   8.791  -0.337   9   =    -241     241
Iowa               4.312   4.167  -0.145   4   =     247     123
Kansas             4.042   3.949  -0.092   4   =    -355     149
Kentucky           6.120   5.926  -0.194   6   =    -339     185
Louisiana          6.392   6.344  -0.048   6   =     107     313   Stops the bleeding.
Maine              1.933   1.809  -0.124   2   =    -251       4   Safe until 2050.
Maryland           8.131   8.215   0.084   8   =     201     510
Massachusetts      9.217   9.145  -0.073   9   =     253     449
Michigan          13.902  12.906  -0.996  13  -1    -338      -1   Sure loss.
Minnesota          7.472   7.386  -0.087   7  -1      72     343   Long shot to keep 8.
Mississippi        4.201   4.007  -0.194   4   =     371      79
Missouri           8.433   8.025  -0.408   8   =     347     148
Montana            1.478   1.472  -0.006   1   =      20      72   Will Bakken help?
Nebraska           2.615   2.606  -0.010   3   =     -88     133   Safe for now.
Nevada             3.829   3.908   0.079   4   =    -323     269   Not even a solid 4.
New Hampshire      1.917   1.813  -0.104   2   =    -255      19   Safe until 2050.
New Jersey        12.369  11.912  -0.457  12   =    -340     328
New Mexico         2.937   2.887  -0.050   3   =    -307     120   Losing ground.
New York          27.244  26.427  -0.817  26  -1       1     869   50/50 on loss of seat.
North Carolina    13.413  13.759   0.346  14  +1    -227    1001   14 is in the bag.
North Dakota       1.070   1.159   0.090   1   =     279     129
Ohio              16.224  15.108  -1.116  15  -1     268      34   One is certain.
Oklahoma           5.297   5.298   0.001   5   =     144     290
Oregon             5.408   5.431   0.023   5   =      42     313   Needs to heat it up.
Pennsylvania      17.862  16.942  -0.920  17  -1    -373     274   In the bag Wink
Rhode Island       1.562   1.449  -0.112   1  -1      38     -10   Pretty much a lock.
South Carolina     6.521   6.647   0.126   7   =    -126     453
South Dakota       1.249   1.280   0.031   1   =     178      89
Tennessee          8.935   8.954   0.019   9   =    -366     504
Texas             35.350  38.459   3.110  39  +3     -50    4322   3rd is not in the bag.
Utah               3.917   4.198   0.281   4   =     224     430   Faster than neighbors.
Vermont            1.012   0.959  -0.053   1   =     454       1
Virginia          11.258  11.568   0.310  12  +1     -76     855   Somewhat safe.
Washington         9.466   9.834   0.368  10   =    -276     801
West Virginia      2.652   2.483  -0.169   2  -1       8      11   Could still save 3rd.
Wisconsin          8.010   7.669  -0.340   8   =    -146     177   OK until 2030
Wyoming            0.937   0.954   0.017   1   =     458      59


If these projections hold up, New York might not lose a seat for the first time since the 1940 census when they stayed at 45 (47 EC votes).
« Last Edit: June 20, 2013, 10:16:43 am by Senator Gass3268 »Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7606
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -7.65

P P
View Profile
« Reply #8 on: June 20, 2013, 11:32:53 am »
Ignore

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166668.msg3562947#msg3562947


State               2010    2020  Change   N  +-  Margin Increase  8-Ball.
Alabama            6.737   6.506  -0.231   7   =     -18     191   Getting real close.
Alaska             1.117   1.169   0.052   1   =     271      99
Arizona            8.999   9.332   0.333   9   =     110     748   Still a possibility.
Arkansas           4.129   4.033  -0.096   4   =     351     151
California        52.369  53.356   0.987  54  +1      -2    3630   50/50.
Colorado           7.087   7.550   0.462   8  +1     -54     743   Not sure on 8th.
Connecticut        5.049   4.785  -0.263   5   =    -229      73
Delaware           1.358   1.381   0.023   1   =      94      88
Florida           26.435  27.673   1.238  28  +1    -190    2399   Somewhat safe for one.
Georgia           13.627  14.055   0.429  14   =     311    1076  
Hawaii             1.976   2.031   0.055   2   =     363     148
Idaho              2.260   2.270   0.010   2   =     176     129   3 not getting closer.
Illinois          18.043  17.012  -1.031  17  -1     338     200   Sure loss.
Indiana            9.128   8.791  -0.337   9   =    -241     241
Iowa               4.312   4.167  -0.145   4   =     247     123
Kansas             4.042   3.949  -0.092   4   =    -355     149
Kentucky           6.120   5.926  -0.194   6   =    -339     185
Louisiana          6.392   6.344  -0.048   6   =     107     313   Stops the bleeding.
Maine              1.933   1.809  -0.124   2   =    -251       4   Safe until 2050.
Maryland           8.131   8.215   0.084   8   =     201     510
Massachusetts      9.217   9.145  -0.073   9   =     253     449
Michigan          13.902  12.906  -0.996  13  -1    -338      -1   Sure loss.
Minnesota          7.472   7.386  -0.087   7  -1      72     343   Long shot to keep 8.
Mississippi        4.201   4.007  -0.194   4   =     371      79
Missouri           8.433   8.025  -0.408   8   =     347     148
Montana            1.478   1.472  -0.006   1   =      20      72   Will Bakken help?
Nebraska           2.615   2.606  -0.010   3   =     -88     133   Safe for now.
Nevada             3.829   3.908   0.079   4   =    -323     269   Not even a solid 4.
New Hampshire      1.917   1.813  -0.104   2   =    -255      19   Safe until 2050.
New Jersey        12.369  11.912  -0.457  12   =    -340     328
New Mexico         2.937   2.887  -0.050   3   =    -307     120   Losing ground.
New York          27.244  26.427  -0.817  26  -1       1     869   50/50 on loss of seat.
North Carolina    13.413  13.759   0.346  14  +1    -227    1001   14 is in the bag.
North Dakota       1.070   1.159   0.090   1   =     279     129
Ohio              16.224  15.108  -1.116  15  -1     268      34   One is certain.
Oklahoma           5.297   5.298   0.001   5   =     144     290
Oregon             5.408   5.431   0.023   5   =      42     313   Needs to heat it up.
Pennsylvania      17.862  16.942  -0.920  17  -1    -373     274   In the bag Wink
Rhode Island       1.562   1.449  -0.112   1  -1      38     -10   Pretty much a lock.
South Carolina     6.521   6.647   0.126   7   =    -126     453
South Dakota       1.249   1.280   0.031   1   =     178      89
Tennessee          8.935   8.954   0.019   9   =    -366     504
Texas             35.350  38.459   3.110  39  +3     -50    4322   3rd is not in the bag.
Utah               3.917   4.198   0.281   4   =     224     430   Faster than neighbors.
Vermont            1.012   0.959  -0.053   1   =     454       1
Virginia          11.258  11.568   0.310  12  +1     -76     855   Somewhat safe.
Washington         9.466   9.834   0.368  10   =    -276     801
West Virginia      2.652   2.483  -0.169   2  -1       8      11   Could still save 3rd.
Wisconsin          8.010   7.669  -0.340   8   =    -146     177   OK until 2030
Wyoming            0.937   0.954   0.017   1   =     458      59


If these projections hold up, New York might not lose a seat for the first time since the 1940 census when they stayed at 45 (47 EC votes).

Out of Curiosity, how are the house seats calculated (numbers for 2010/2020)? What numbers are used? Or is it only known by the census bureau?
Logged

2014 Senate Prediction
2014 Governor Predictions

Endorsements:

WI-1: Paul Ryan
Gov/Lt. Gov: Scott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch
AG: Tom Nelson
SoS: None
Treasurer: Matt Adamczyk
Ballot Measure: No
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9558
Latvia


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: June 20, 2013, 12:28:12 pm »
Ignore

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166668.msg3562947#msg3562947


State               2010    2020  Change   N  +-  Margin Increase  8-Ball.
Alabama            6.737   6.506  -0.231   7   =     -18     191   Getting real close.
Alaska             1.117   1.169   0.052   1   =     271      99
Arizona            8.999   9.332   0.333   9   =     110     748   Still a possibility.
Arkansas           4.129   4.033  -0.096   4   =     351     151
California        52.369  53.356   0.987  54  +1      -2    3630   50/50.
Colorado           7.087   7.550   0.462   8  +1     -54     743   Not sure on 8th.
Connecticut        5.049   4.785  -0.263   5   =    -229      73
Delaware           1.358   1.381   0.023   1   =      94      88
Florida           26.435  27.673   1.238  28  +1    -190    2399   Somewhat safe for one.
Georgia           13.627  14.055   0.429  14   =     311    1076  
Hawaii             1.976   2.031   0.055   2   =     363     148
Idaho              2.260   2.270   0.010   2   =     176     129   3 not getting closer.
Illinois          18.043  17.012  -1.031  17  -1     338     200   Sure loss.
Indiana            9.128   8.791  -0.337   9   =    -241     241
Iowa               4.312   4.167  -0.145   4   =     247     123
Kansas             4.042   3.949  -0.092   4   =    -355     149
Kentucky           6.120   5.926  -0.194   6   =    -339     185
Louisiana          6.392   6.344  -0.048   6   =     107     313   Stops the bleeding.
Maine              1.933   1.809  -0.124   2   =    -251       4   Safe until 2050.
Maryland           8.131   8.215   0.084   8   =     201     510
Massachusetts      9.217   9.145  -0.073   9   =     253     449
Michigan          13.902  12.906  -0.996  13  -1    -338      -1   Sure loss.
Minnesota          7.472   7.386  -0.087   7  -1      72     343   Long shot to keep 8.
Mississippi        4.201   4.007  -0.194   4   =     371      79
Missouri           8.433   8.025  -0.408   8   =     347     148
Montana            1.478   1.472  -0.006   1   =      20      72   Will Bakken help?
Nebraska           2.615   2.606  -0.010   3   =     -88     133   Safe for now.
Nevada             3.829   3.908   0.079   4   =    -323     269   Not even a solid 4.
New Hampshire      1.917   1.813  -0.104   2   =    -255      19   Safe until 2050.
New Jersey        12.369  11.912  -0.457  12   =    -340     328
New Mexico         2.937   2.887  -0.050   3   =    -307     120   Losing ground.
New York          27.244  26.427  -0.817  26  -1       1     869   50/50 on loss of seat.
North Carolina    13.413  13.759   0.346  14  +1    -227    1001   14 is in the bag.
North Dakota       1.070   1.159   0.090   1   =     279     129
Ohio              16.224  15.108  -1.116  15  -1     268      34   One is certain.
Oklahoma           5.297   5.298   0.001   5   =     144     290
Oregon             5.408   5.431   0.023   5   =      42     313   Needs to heat it up.
Pennsylvania      17.862  16.942  -0.920  17  -1    -373     274   In the bag Wink
Rhode Island       1.562   1.449  -0.112   1  -1      38     -10   Pretty much a lock.
South Carolina     6.521   6.647   0.126   7   =    -126     453
South Dakota       1.249   1.280   0.031   1   =     178      89
Tennessee          8.935   8.954   0.019   9   =    -366     504
Texas             35.350  38.459   3.110  39  +3     -50    4322   3rd is not in the bag.
Utah               3.917   4.198   0.281   4   =     224     430   Faster than neighbors.
Vermont            1.012   0.959  -0.053   1   =     454       1
Virginia          11.258  11.568   0.310  12  +1     -76     855   Somewhat safe.
Washington         9.466   9.834   0.368  10   =    -276     801
West Virginia      2.652   2.483  -0.169   2  -1       8      11   Could still save 3rd.
Wisconsin          8.010   7.669  -0.340   8   =    -146     177   OK until 2030
Wyoming            0.937   0.954   0.017   1   =     458      59


If these projections hold up, New York might not lose a seat for the first time since the 1940 census when they stayed at 45 (47 EC votes).

Out of Curiosity, how are the house seats calculated (numbers for 2010/2020)? What numbers are used? Or is it only known by the census bureau?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huntington%E2%80%93Hill_method
Logged

ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7606
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -7.65

P P
View Profile
« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2013, 12:10:01 am »
Ignore

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166668.msg3562947#msg3562947


State               2010    2020  Change   N  +-  Margin Increase  8-Ball.
Alabama            6.737   6.506  -0.231   7   =     -18     191   Getting real close.
Alaska             1.117   1.169   0.052   1   =     271      99
Arizona            8.999   9.332   0.333   9   =     110     748   Still a possibility.
Arkansas           4.129   4.033  -0.096   4   =     351     151
California        52.369  53.356   0.987  54  +1      -2    3630   50/50.
Colorado           7.087   7.550   0.462   8  +1     -54     743   Not sure on 8th.
Connecticut        5.049   4.785  -0.263   5   =    -229      73
Delaware           1.358   1.381   0.023   1   =      94      88
Florida           26.435  27.673   1.238  28  +1    -190    2399   Somewhat safe for one.
Georgia           13.627  14.055   0.429  14   =     311    1076  
Hawaii             1.976   2.031   0.055   2   =     363     148
Idaho              2.260   2.270   0.010   2   =     176     129   3 not getting closer.
Illinois          18.043  17.012  -1.031  17  -1     338     200   Sure loss.
Indiana            9.128   8.791  -0.337   9   =    -241     241
Iowa               4.312   4.167  -0.145   4   =     247     123
Kansas             4.042   3.949  -0.092   4   =    -355     149
Kentucky           6.120   5.926  -0.194   6   =    -339     185
Louisiana          6.392   6.344  -0.048   6   =     107     313   Stops the bleeding.
Maine              1.933   1.809  -0.124   2   =    -251       4   Safe until 2050.
Maryland           8.131   8.215   0.084   8   =     201     510
Massachusetts      9.217   9.145  -0.073   9   =     253     449
Michigan          13.902  12.906  -0.996  13  -1    -338      -1   Sure loss.
Minnesota          7.472   7.386  -0.087   7  -1      72     343   Long shot to keep 8.
Mississippi        4.201   4.007  -0.194   4   =     371      79
Missouri           8.433   8.025  -0.408   8   =     347     148
Montana            1.478   1.472  -0.006   1   =      20      72   Will Bakken help?
Nebraska           2.615   2.606  -0.010   3   =     -88     133   Safe for now.
Nevada             3.829   3.908   0.079   4   =    -323     269   Not even a solid 4.
New Hampshire      1.917   1.813  -0.104   2   =    -255      19   Safe until 2050.
New Jersey        12.369  11.912  -0.457  12   =    -340     328
New Mexico         2.937   2.887  -0.050   3   =    -307     120   Losing ground.
New York          27.244  26.427  -0.817  26  -1       1     869   50/50 on loss of seat.
North Carolina    13.413  13.759   0.346  14  +1    -227    1001   14 is in the bag.
North Dakota       1.070   1.159   0.090   1   =     279     129
Ohio              16.224  15.108  -1.116  15  -1     268      34   One is certain.
Oklahoma           5.297   5.298   0.001   5   =     144     290
Oregon             5.408   5.431   0.023   5   =      42     313   Needs to heat it up.
Pennsylvania      17.862  16.942  -0.920  17  -1    -373     274   In the bag Wink
Rhode Island       1.562   1.449  -0.112   1  -1      38     -10   Pretty much a lock.
South Carolina     6.521   6.647   0.126   7   =    -126     453
South Dakota       1.249   1.280   0.031   1   =     178      89
Tennessee          8.935   8.954   0.019   9   =    -366     504
Texas             35.350  38.459   3.110  39  +3     -50    4322   3rd is not in the bag.
Utah               3.917   4.198   0.281   4   =     224     430   Faster than neighbors.
Vermont            1.012   0.959  -0.053   1   =     454       1
Virginia          11.258  11.568   0.310  12  +1     -76     855   Somewhat safe.
Washington         9.466   9.834   0.368  10   =    -276     801
West Virginia      2.652   2.483  -0.169   2  -1       8      11   Could still save 3rd.
Wisconsin          8.010   7.669  -0.340   8   =    -146     177   OK until 2030
Wyoming            0.937   0.954   0.017   1   =     458      59


If these projections hold up, New York might not lose a seat for the first time since the 1940 census when they stayed at 45 (47 EC votes).

Out of Curiosity, how are the house seats calculated (numbers for 2010/2020)? What numbers are used? Or is it only known by the census bureau?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huntington%E2%80%93Hill_method

Thanks, still confusing but at least I know the formula.
Logged

2014 Senate Prediction
2014 Governor Predictions

Endorsements:

WI-1: Paul Ryan
Gov/Lt. Gov: Scott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch
AG: Tom Nelson
SoS: None
Treasurer: Matt Adamczyk
Ballot Measure: No
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 297
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.48, S: 0.87

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2013, 11:56:16 am »
Ignore

Anyone up for doing 2030?
Logged
memphis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15055


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -3.83


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2013, 12:34:34 pm »
Ignore

Are you guys using data or just pulling numbers out of your R-MI?
Logged

I cannot do anything good under my own power. 
I will get up and move around every now and then so I reduce the chances to get hit with another Grade 8 headache in the morning.
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2335
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.87, S: -2.09

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2013, 12:48:31 pm »
Ignore

2010


2020


2030
Logged

What if in 2012, in this debate at the one minute mark, Governor Rick Perry had hit Governor Romney?  What would had happened, would the race had changed completely?  Find out in my new tl, based on one I had at one time, "The Punch Watched Around The World."
Redban
Full Member
***
Posts: 123


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2013, 02:15:47 pm »
Ignore

Poor Northeast!

I definitely think Texas will hit 40 electoral votes.
Logged
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 297
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.48, S: 0.87

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2013, 03:49:45 pm »
Ignore

Are you guys using data or just pulling numbers out of your R-MI?

I was hoping for someone to use data to make the numbers.
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4661
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2013, 08:59:03 pm »
Ignore

http://

Here are the recent trend averages of the last 4 elections. Trends don't go on forever but can sometimes be enough to close a battleground state.
Logged

Immortal Sockhead
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31199
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2013, 06:15:26 am »
Ignore

Anyone up for doing 2030?

Mine was 2030.
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 297
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.48, S: 0.87

View Profile
« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2013, 10:29:48 pm »
Ignore

Anyone up for doing 2030?

Mine was 2030.

Did you use data to get your EV numbers or was it a guess?
Logged
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31199
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #19 on: June 29, 2013, 04:34:27 am »
Ignore

Anyone up for doing 2030?

Mine was 2030.

Did you use data to get your EV numbers or was it a guess?

A mix of both. I compared the growth rates of the past 5 censuses and used them to guesstimate the 2020 and 2030 ones. There's certainly. a lot of subjectivity involved, but I think I'm not too far from what will actually happen.
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines