Early 2016 Base Map

[JRP1994]

70% = Solid
50% = Likely
30% = Leaning

Any dissenters?

Generic Democrat:   253
Generic Republican: 206

[JerryArkansas]

Move Arkansas to Likely, without obama, we will go back left some.  Also PA to TossUp and VA to Leaning DEM.  Also NC to Tossup, and maybe soon Leaning DEM.

Here is my map

Dem      245
 
Rep      191
 

[opebo]

I think you got it just about exactly right, except for the shadings, particularly the shading in Maine.  But I do think it is quite possible VA could be lean Dem and/or PA tossup, its very close in both cases.

As for Arkansas, its really solid except for some possible Hillary effect, who can say if that would actually materialize or not..

[JRP1994]

Move Arkansas to Likely, without obama, we will go back left some.  Also PA to TossUp and VA to Leaning DEM.  Also NC to Tossup, and maybe soon Leaning DEM.

Here is my map

Dem      245
 
Rep      191
 

That's possible. Your map represents a slightly more optimistic scenario for the Democrats than mine  - I really don't see them expanding their map that much beyond 2016, unless it's a Hillary blowout. Georgia, for example - the Democratic Party of Georgia only has $15,000 on hand. It's going to take a lot of work to make GA competitive, even in a wave election.

I think you got it just about exactly right, except for the shadings, particularly the shading in Maine.  But I do think it is quite possible VA could be lean Dem and/or PA tossup, its very close in both cases.

As for Arkansas, its really solid except for some possible Hillary effect, who can say if that would actually materialize or not..

Interesting.. Arkansas and Missouri are fairly similar demographically, but MO has a PVI of R+5, while Arkansas has a PVI of R+14. Do you think that Hillary's popularity in AR might manifest itself more significantly in Missouri?

[free my dawg]

[The Free North]

VA will be a swing state, especially if you consider Iowa and NH to be ones as well. Not having a black on the ticket may decrease turnout significantly in democratic parts of virginia.

[opebo]

Interesting.. Arkansas and Missouri are fairly similar demographically, but MO has a PVI of R+5, while Arkansas has a PVI of R+14. Do you think that Hillary's popularity in AR might manifest itself more significantly in Missouri?

No, not really.  I don't think she's all that popular in Missouri.  I think Arkansas is just the kind of extremely overlooked woebegone place where people might, rarely, set aside their ideological/racial/cultural preferences to vote for someone they perceive as 'connected to them' or 'having them in mind'.  Missouri is really much more of a standard Midwestern state, with a large city/rural+right-leaning suburbs balance that is in my opinion much more stable.

[eric82oslo]

I would say that Pennsylvania is a toss-up, New Hampshire is leaning Democratic and Nevada is likely or even solid Democratic. Otherwise I agree.

I think I would put Texas as likely and not solid Republican, but it all comes down to the outcome of the 2014 election probably. If Hispanic turnout doesn't increase in 2014 and Republicans win another landslide in that election, I guess that Texas is more or less gone in 2016 as well. Although a Texas Hispanic VP could change that equation.

This is my map actually:

Dem: 266 EVs
Rep: 224 EVs
Toss-up: 48 EVs

I only have 4 true toss-up states: Pennsylvania, Iowa, Virginia and Colorado. I probably should have added Florida as well, but something tells me that Florida will go Democratic in 2016. No state has more 65+ voters than Florida, and Hillary is really beyond huge in that age group. Plus almost no politician has more starpower among latinos than her. Usually Florida would be a toss-up, but with Hillary I don't think it will be.

Thus I have 5 lean Democratic states and 4 lean Republican states, those being Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. The lean Democratic states are Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota and possibly Michigan. I have 4 likely Republican states; Alaska, Montana, Texas and Missouri. Actually I would personally be much more surprised if Missouri would go Democratic (even for Hillary) than if Texas did the same. So Missouri is borderline solid in my opinion. Oregon is somewhere between likely and solid Democratic.

[illegaloperation]

Dem 252
Rep 206
Tos 80

[Supersonic]

Safest bet:

[Space7]

I eliminated "Tossups" entirely from the equation. This map assumes no blowout victory.

New Jersey is only "Likely" with Christie, otherwise it's "Solid".

[barfbag]

http://

This far in advance, I think we should leave as many states blank as possible.

[ElectionsGuy]

Based off 2012 Elections Here's my map:  >70% = Safe  >50% = Strong/Likely   Toss-Up = Lean R/Lean D
This is NOT assuming any candidates or anything. Anything that leans is in toss-up mode for now.

[opebo]

Barf, Waukeesha, why do you post those overly Republican-biased maps?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

This is my map:

I decided to put North Carolina in Lean R, because in 2012 NC was actually more Republican than Minnesota was Democratic, and I had put MI, MN and NV in Lean D. I put South Carolina and Mississippi in Solid R because while it may appear they are winnable for Democrats, their extremely low elasticity scores make it more likely for a Democrat to carry a Dakota than Mississippi, and it's more likely a Democrat will carry Texas than South Carolina.

So overall, a fairly optimistic map for Republicans, but not too optimistic.

[ElectionsGuy]

Barf, Waukeesha, why do you post those overly Republican-biased maps?

Mine is not partisan, it is completely based off a the trends of states and the 2012 election. It just seems partisan because we've had many more D victories so it seems ridiculous to put Michigan as a lean D instead of Strong D, etc. My map is assuming a tie in the popular vote.

[barfbag]

Barf, Waukeesha, why do you post those overly Republican-biased maps?

I felt like I left it as open as I could. It's 2013. Which GOP states of mine would you have as toss up?

[opebo]

Barf, Waukeesha, why do you post those overly Republican-biased maps?

Mine is not partisan, it is completely based off a the trends of states and the 2012 election. It just seems partisan because we've had many more D victories so it seems ridiculous to put Michigan as a lean D instead of Strong D, etc. My map is assuming a tie in the popular vote.

Yes, Michigan as lean-D is reasonable, but you put it as a tossup!

Barf, Waukeesha, why do you post those overly Republican-biased maps?

I felt like I left it as open as I could. It's 2013. Which GOP states of mine would you have as toss up?

None of them, buddy.  But you put Washington as a toss-up!

[ElectionsGuy]

Barf, Waukeesha, why do you post those overly Republican-biased maps?

Mine is not partisan, it is completely based off a the trends of states and the 2012 election. It just seems partisan because we've had many more D victories so it seems ridiculous to put Michigan as a lean D instead of Strong D, etc. My map is assuming a tie in the popular vote.

Yes, Michigan as lean-D is reasonable, but you put it as a tossup!

Read My Message! I originally said that anything that leans is in Toss-Up mode for now, then I crossed that off and said Toss-Up = Lean D/Lean R.

[barfbag]

Barf, Waukeesha, why do you post those overly Republican-biased maps?

Mine is not partisan, it is completely based off a the trends of states and the 2012 election. It just seems partisan because we've had many more D victories so it seems ridiculous to put Michigan as a lean D instead of Strong D, etc. My map is assuming a tie in the popular vote.

Yes, Michigan as lean-D is reasonable, but you put it as a tossup!

Barf, Waukeesha, why do you post those overly Republican-biased maps?

I felt like I left it as open as I could. It's 2013. Which GOP states of mine would you have as toss up?

None of them, buddy.  But you put Washington as a toss-up!

Along with MI, MN, OR, ME, DE, and NJ I'd have to at this point. It's 2013 and 3 and a half years away from the general election. It's just too early.

[opebo]

Yes, Michigan as lean-D is reasonable, but you put it as a tossup!

Read My Message! I originally said that anything that leans is in Toss-Up mode for now, then I crossed that off and said Toss-Up = Lean D/Lean R.

Well, thanks for the explanation. 

Along with MI, MN, OR, ME, DE, and NJ I'd have to at this point. It's 2013 and 3 and a half years away from the general election. It's just too early.

It really isn't too early to know that its about 98+% likely Washington's going D and Georgia's going R.

[Consciously Unconscious]

90% is solid
60% is likely
30% is lean
Grey is tossup

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, Michigan as lean-D is reasonable, but you put it as a tossup!

Read My Message! I originally said that anything that leans is in Toss-Up mode for now, then I crossed that off and said Toss-Up = Lean D/Lean R.

Well, thanks for the explanation. 

Your Welcome.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

[opebo]

Michigan's a tossup while North Carolina leans Republican?  Utter biased nonsense.

Here's a much more realistic map, removing all tossups: