Who will control the NJ and VA legislatures at the end of the night?

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I haven't heard much about the local races much at all.  Can Christie or McAuliffe's victories affect the balance of power in their states' respective legislatures?

[windjammer]

New Jersey state senate. Based on the 2012 presidential results

Sen district   PVI   INC
29   36   D
28   31   D
31   30   D
34   30   D
35   30   D
20   28   D
33   25   D
32   22   D
15   21   D
17   21   D
5   18   D
37   17   D
22   16   D
19   15   D
6   13   D
7   12   R
36   12   D
4   10   D
18   9   D
2   8   D
14   6   D
27   5   D
3   4   D
11   4   R
38   3   D
1   2   D
8   2   R
16   2   R
12   -5   R
21   -5   R
25   -6   R
13   -7   R
26   -7   R
39   -7   R
9   -8   R
23   -8   R
40   -8   R
10   -9   R
24   -12   R
30   -15   R

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The VA Senate isn't up for election until 2015, and right now it's split 20/20.  The only change would be through a special election for the seats of Ralph Northam and whichever one of the AG candidates win.  The VA House doesn't have enough competitive races to come anywhere near Democrat control.

Edit: though the VA Senate will switch hands through the switch in party of the Lt. Gov.

[windjammer]

State house virginia: based only pn 2012 results
District   INC   pvi (seulement 2012)
71   DEM   34
69   DEM   33
89   DEM   29
92   DEM   29
70   DEM   28
90   DEM   27
77   DEM   26
95   DEM   26
49   DEM   24
80   DEM   24
74   DEM   23
46   DEM   22
63   DEM   21
57   DEM   19
45   DEM   17
47   DEM   17
38   DEM   15
53   DEM   15
43   DEM   14
11   DEM   13
44   DEM   13
36   DEM   12
48   DEM   12
52   DEM   11
79   DEM   11
39   DEM   10
75   DEM   10
37   DEM   9
86   REP   9
2   REP   8
35   DEM   8
41   DEM   7
81   REP   6
87   REP   5
93   REP   5
13   REP   4
29   REP   3
50   REP   3
100   DEM   3
31   REP   2
8   REP   1
32   REP   1
42   REP   1
94   REP   1
12   REP   0
51   REP   0
14   REP   -2
27   REP   -2
28   REP   -2
34   REP   -2
84   VAC   -2
85   REP   -2
10   REP   -4
40   REP   -4
60   REP   -4
21   REP   -5
54   REP   -5
62   REP   -5
73   REP   -5
83   REP   -5
67   REP   -6
72   REP   -6
61   REP   -7
76   REP   -7
99   REP   -7
16   REP   -8
26   REP   -8
88   REP   -8
91   REP   -8
30   REP   -9
33   REP   -9
68   REP   -9
20   REP   -10
58   REP   -10
64   REP   -10
96   REP   -10
18   REP   -11
55   REP   -11
59   REP   -11
82   REP   -11
7   REP   -12
17   REP   -12
78   VAC   -12
98   REP   -12
22   REP   -14
24   REP   -14
56   REP   -14
66   REP   -15
4   DEM   -16
9   REP   -16
19   IND   -16
15   REP   -17
65   REP   -17
23   REP   -18
6   REP   -19
25   REP   -19
5   REP   -22
97   REP   -22
1   REP   -25
3   REP   -27

[ElectionsGuy]

VA Senate isn't up for re-election, but the House is. Out of the 3 chambers that are up, I think the NJ House and Senate will stay democratic (but GOP might pick up seats in both) and the Virginia House will stay republican for certain.

[Hifly]

The GOP will have a one to two seat advantage in the VA Senate after the election.

[windjammer]

And Northam,Herring,Obenshain's districts are safe.

[windjammer]

The GOP will have a one to two seat advantage in the VA Senate after the election.

I'm sorry Hifly but even if the Pubs could have competitive candidates, it's D+6 Herring and Northam's district!

[windjammer]

And New Jersey house districts based only on the 2012 results:
House district   PVI   INC
29   36   2D
28   31   2D
31   30   2D
34   30   2D
35   30   2D
20   28   2D
33   25   2D
32   22   2D
15   21   2D
17   21   2D
5   18   2D
37   17   2D
22   16   2D
19   15   2D
6   13   2D
7   12   2D
36   12   2D
4   10   2D
18   9   2D
2   8   2R
14   6   2D
27   5   2D
3   4   2D
11   4   2R
38   3   2D
1   2   2D
8   2   2R
16   2   2R
12   -5   2R
21   -5   2R
25   -6   2R
13   -7   2R
26   -7   2R
39   -7   2R
9   -8   2R
23   -8   2R
40   -8   2R
10   -9   2R
24   -12   2R
30   -15   2R

[MalaspinaGold]

The GOP will have a one to two seat advantage in the VA Senate after the election.

I'm sorry Hifly but even if the Pubs could have competitive candidates, it's D+6 Herring and Northam's district!

Well, at the end of the night, there will not have been special elections for replacements.

[Hifly]

I meant that immediately after the election the Pubs will control the Senate- the special elections for Herring's and Northam's districts won't be for months!

[Skill and Chance]

I meant that immediately after the election the Pubs will control the Senate- the special elections for Herring's and Northam's districts won't be for months!

Obenshain + Northam winning = tie and D control through Northam from day 1, though.  There has been a lot of talk about Republican chances in Northam's and Herring's districts in a special.  Could Democrats make a play for the Obenshain district in a special if he wins?

[windjammer]

I meant that immediately after the election the Pubs will control the Senate- the special elections for Herring's and Northam's districts won't be for months!

Obenshain + Northam winning = tie and D control through Northam from day 1, though.  There has been a lot of talk about Republican chances in Northam's and Herring's districts in a special.  Could Democrats make a play for the Obenshain district in a special if he wins?

No way, his district is R+11.

[Skill and Chance]

I meant that immediately after the election the Pubs will control the Senate- the special elections for Herring's and Northam's districts won't be for months!

Obenshain + Northam winning = tie and D control through Northam from day 1, though.  There has been a lot of talk about Republican chances in Northam's and Herring's districts in a special.  Could Democrats make a play for the Obenshain district in a special if he wins?

No way, his district is R+11.

But he is from the mountains.  Is it a Blue Doggish R+11?  Democrats still have a 60% Romney state senate seat in coal country.

[windjammer]

I meant that immediately after the election the Pubs will control the Senate- the special elections for Herring's and Northam's districts won't be for months!

Obenshain + Northam winning = tie and D control through Northam from day 1, though.  There has been a lot of talk about Republican chances in Northam's and Herring's districts in a special.  Could Democrats make a play for the Obenshain district in a special if he wins?

No way, his district is R+11.

But he is from the mountains.  Is it a Blue Doggish R+11?  Democrats still have a 60% Romney state senate seat in coal country.

Obenshain was first elected in 2004, so...

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I meant that immediately after the election the Pubs will control the Senate- the special elections for Herring's and Northam's districts won't be for months!

Obenshain + Northam winning = tie and D control through Northam from day 1, though.  There has been a lot of talk about Republican chances in Northam's and Herring's districts in a special.  Could Democrats make a play for the Obenshain district in a special if he wins?

No way, his district is R+11.

But he is from the mountains.  Is it a Blue Doggish R+11?  Democrats still have a 60% Romney state senate seat in coal country.

Obenshain's district is in Shenandoah (not a part of coal country now, if it ever was) and has been voting Republican for a long time.  It looks like Ford even carried the area against Carter.

[Meeker]

I suspect the Democrats will have a few gains in the Virginia House of Delegates, but they won't come close to taking control of the chamber. Republicans may net a seat or two in one of the New Jersey chambers, but there are far fewer districts there than in Virginia (40 vs. 100), and fewer than ten of those forty districts could really be considered competitive. Christie would have to have really incredible coattails for the GOP to make real gains.

I hadn't thought about the repercussions for the Virginia State Senate if Northam and Herring both win. Now I almost don't want Herring to win. After the 2009 election they had the special election to fill Cuccinelli's seat in mid-January. I'm assuming a similar timeline would take place for Herring and Northam's vacancies. Article: http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2010-01-13/news/36840852_1_absentee-voters-virginia-democrats-virginia-senate

[icowrich]

The GOP will have a one to two seat advantage in the VA Senate after the election.

I'm sorry Hifly but even if the Pubs could have competitive candidates, it's D+6 Herring and Northam's district!

Well, at the end of the night, there will not have been special elections for replacements.

After election night nothing will have changed.  After the inauguration in January 8, you might see a 2 seat advantage for the GOP, as that is also the first day of the new legislative session.  Interestingly, the special election could be held as early as December, in which case the new candidates could take their seats before inauguration day.  In that case, assuming Dems win both seats, there would be no shift in power.

Even if the election were held later, I can't imagine it making that much a difference, since anything passed in those few days or weeks could be vetoed by the governor.  New legislation could then be passed after the new members were seated.

The only scenario where I can imagine this being a big deal would be if Cuccinelli won the governorship, but the Dems won both of the other seats.  In that (unlikely) scenario, Cuccinelli could elect to have a February special election (ensuring a GOP majority in both houses for at least a month) and then pass a flurry of bills before the new senators could take their seats.

The odds of a Cuccinelli win coupled with a Northam and Herring loss are, of course, remote.

[Mr.Phips]

Not a single seat changes in either New Jersey chamber.  Democrats gain three of four seats in the Virginia House of Delegates.

[Hifly]

Not a single seat changes in either New Jersey chamber.  Democrats gain three of four seats in the Virginia House of Delegates.

This is basically what I think will happen.