OR Congressional races 2014

[Miles]

One of my contacts in the LADP, who was actually one of our better operatives, got transferred by the DSCC to Merkley's campaign. Read into that what you will.

[publicunofficial]

Primary Results:



Webhy- 50.4%
Conger- 37.2%
Others- 12.4%

Why did Conger win Deschutes? Olds? Cross-registering Democratic saboteurs?

Conger lives in/represents Deschutes, specifically Bend.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Why did Cook change the ratings on this senate race from solid to likely D, only after all the crap that is happening with the Republican nominee?

[Vosem]

Why did Cook change the ratings on this senate race from solid to likely D, only after all the crap that is happening with the Republican nominee?

I'm getting the vibe that Wehby is getting a significant post-primary bounce right now. I think ultimately it'll fade -- if Wehby wins in November, Republicans have long since won the Senate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why did Cook change the ratings on this senate race from solid to likely D, only after all the crap that is happening with the Republican nominee?

Cook, Sabato, and Rothenberg are the stereotypical used car salesmen of American political analysis.  They sell an overpriced, unreliable, and outdated product (conventional wisdom that's already about two or three months old).  When Wheby first announced, Republicans were talking her up for about a week.  Cook hasn't quite caught up with her implosion yet, but I am sure it'll be listed as safe D in a couple of months.  I bet those three still have NH Senate as a competative race

[Never]

Why did Cook change the ratings on this senate race from solid to likely D, only after all the crap that is happening with the Republican nominee?

Cook, Sabato, and Rothenberg are the stereotypical used car salesmen of American political analysis.  They sell an overpriced, unreliable, and outdated product (conventional wisdom that's already about two or three months old).  When Wheby first announced, Republicans were talking her up for about a week.  Cook hasn't quite caught up with her implosion yet, but I am sure it'll be listed as safe D in a couple of months.  I bet those three still have NH Senate as a competative race

Well, Wehby herself hasn't necessarily imploded. It seems like she has just been quickly attacked by the Democrats based on claims that she is a crazed stalker, and based on the evidence, that seems to be a shaky accusation to pin on a pediatric neurosurgeon. Wehby is surely in a weaker position than she was a few weeks ago, but it is probably a stretch to say that Jeff Merkley is completely assured of victory. At this point, it would seem that Wehby still has a 5-10% chance at winning.

It would appear that this race is indeed Likely D for now. You're probably correct that by fall, it will be Safe D, but a lot can change in just a few months.

[TJ in Oregon]

Cook probably moved the race in the Republican direction because of Wehby winning the Republican Primary. The old rating was probably more Democratic because of the chances of Conger winning the primary. "Likely Democratic" probably does adequately describe the situation at the moment as well as prognosticators' typical "Likely" ratings do. The problem here is that when they say "Likely" they really mean almost certainly barring utter catastrophe. To prognosticators "Lean" really means likely and "Toss-up" means an actual tossup or leaning in either direction.

[publicunofficial]

Cook likes to change his ratings months after everyone else, then say "Clearly this election is moving to X party"

[Miles]

Webhy is being called out for fundraising over the VA's issues.

[RogueBeaver]

WaPo on the race.

[Miles]

Wehby is waffly on ENDA.

[windjammer]

To be honest,
I was quite curious about her chances.
So I'm following her a lot.

And fairly, she's not really charismatic. I start to think the other rep candidate would have been better.

[Miles]

Merkley picked up the fundraising pace; $1.8M raised in Q2 (vs. $1M in Q1) with $3.5M CoH.

[windjammer]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/25/koch-brothers-monica-wehby_n_5622094.html

Interesting, she's running as an ultra conservative in order to get Koch money

[Miles]

*Cringe*

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[Deus Naturae]

Wehby emphasizes national debt in TV ad.

[Miles]

There won't be a debate because Wehby is refusing.

Yeah, compared to earlier this cycle, this race has fallen off the map in terms of (potential) competitiveness.