Which two GOP candidates would create the longest primary? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 10:28:15 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Which two GOP candidates would create the longest primary? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Which two GOP candidates would create the longest primary?  (Read 2072 times)
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,440
United States


« on: April 27, 2014, 03:10:35 PM »

I asked a similar question a few weeks back.

Copying and pasting from there, it seemed Rand Paul gets into a lot of fault lines...

Jeb VS Paul:
Security state VS Civil Liberties
Compassionate Conservative VS Small Government
Establishment VS Outsider
Elder Statesman VS Newcomer (Paul's political career began after Bush's tenure as Governor ended.

Christie VS. Paul:
Accomplishment VS Vision
Bipartisanship VS Ideological Purity
Bush Appointee VS Ron Paul's son
Ruthlessness VS Morals

Walker VS Paul:
Accomplishment VS Vision
Political Expertise VS Outsider (Scott Walker has been in elected office since he was 26.)
A career exclusively in Wisconsin VS A career in DC
Firm opposition to Democrats VS Outreach
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,440
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2014, 11:32:36 PM »

The scenario with the longest primary could be a three way race, where it's even tougher for one Republican to get fifty percent.

The final three that could get those results would be Chris Christie VS Rand Paul VS Mike Huckabee.

You'd have the establishment with Christie (assuming he's the last man standing in that primary), social conservatives and evangelicals with Huckabee, and fiscal conservatives and libertarians with Rand Paul.

Christie's a relatively new face, while Rand Paul could emphasize that he didn't work in the Bush administration, and Huckabee would avoid having a record to criticize since 2006.
Huckabee would play up the minister angle running against a libertarian and the bridgegate guy.
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,440
United States


« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2014, 05:03:41 PM »

A Huckabee/Paul primary could very well go all the way to the convention.

Not really, Huckabee supporters are generally in the anti-establishment wing of the party, making them more favorable to Paul.
It would be an interesting match-up. Huckabee and Paul are both southern insurgents, but they appeal to different parts of the grassroots. Huckabee is socially conservative and fiscally moderate. He believes in an active government, albeit one more interested in conservative policies. Rand Paul has some radical views on social issues, but is much more fiscally conservative.

There could be a scenario in which these two are the top candidates, and none of the establishment candidates manages to break out. Let's say Huckabee wins Iowa big, with Rand Paul in second place. Rand Paul blows out New Hampshire, with Huckabee in second place. Walker gets third place in Iowa, and Christie gets third place in New Hampshire, so neither has significant momentum heading in to the later states.

What could make this a longer primary is that neither Paul or Huckabee is the top choice of the establishment. So business types might wait on the sidelines until one of the two emerges as the least bad option.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 13 queries.