Feb 7th Delhi Assembly elections

[ag]

Interestingly, most of the seats where BJP leads seem to have been taken by AAP last time.

[ag]

Kejriwal takes over 3/4 of the vote in his district, it seems.

[jaichind]

AAP   62   +34
BJP     7   -25
INC     0     -8
INLD   1    +1
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1
Ind     0     -1

This is getting massive.

[jaichind]

What is interesting is the stability of the NDA vote in Delhi Assembly elections since 1998

1998   (BJP+INLD)   35.0%
2003   BJP                35.2%
2008   (BJP+SAD)     36.8%
2013   (BJP+SAD)     34.2%
2015   (BJP+SAD)     34.4%  (so far)

NDA lost every one of these elections (it did win the most seats in 2013 but could not form the government) mostly because INC got the anti-BJP vote in 1998 2003 2008 while AAP got the anti-BJP votes in 2015 with the anti-BJP vote split in 2013.

[ag]

BJP cannot win, unless the secular forces are divided: this is the lesson.

[jaichind]

In Krishna Nagar, with about 40% of the vote counted, Kiran Bedi is behind by around 3%.  She actually made up some ground as the count increase and I still think she should end up winning.

[jaichind]

Kiran Bedi is now ahead by around 1%.  The trend is in her favor.  She should win.  Still, in 2013 the BJP won this district with 58.6% of the vote.  And to barely win as the CM candidate is an embarrassment as she did not even hold on to the BJP vote base.

[ag]

Kiran Bedi is now ahead by around 1%.  The trend is in her favor.  She should win.  Still, in 2013 the BJP won this district with 58.6% of the vote.  And to barely win as the CM candidate is an embarrassment as she did not even hold on to the BJP vote base.

But otherwise it is 66-3-0-1 (INLD). Ridiculous.

[ag]

It will be interestingto see if AAP can move out of Delhi. Its 4 Lok Sabha members, of course, are all from Punjab. But, somehow, they seem to be a better fit elsewhere.

[ag]

Bedi's lead is down to 167 votes.

[ag]

Bedi's lead is down to 167 votes.

She is down by 281 votes. If she looses, BJP may be down to 3 seats.

[ag]

It seems it might turn out to be smthg like 67 AAP, 3 BJP, 0 everybody else. An epic landslide!

Interestingly, of the 3 districts which BJP is likely to take, one is a pick-up from INC (a mostly Muslim district, on top of it: INC and AAP split the vote) and another from AAP. Only one incumbent might survive.

[ag]

When in a multi-party setting, like in India, one party gets 54% of the vote, as AAP is doing this time, FPTP really destroys opposition. 67 AAP vs. 3 BJP looks increasingly likely.

[jaichind]

AAP   67   +39
BJP     3   -29
INC     0     -8
INLD   0   
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1
Ind     0     -1

[jaichind]

Vote share is

                          2013      2014LS     2015

AAP                     29.7%     33.1%    54.3%
BJP+SAD             34.2%     46.6%    32.7%
INC                      24.7%    15.2%      9.7%
BSP                       5.4%       1.2%      1.3%
Independent          2.9%       3.2%      0.5%
INLD                     0.6%                      0.6%

Massive polarization toward AAP while NDA kept its vote base

[jaichind]

BJP only managed to win in

Mustafabad, where INC won in 2013 with INC 38.4 BJP 37.2 AAP 13.5 PECP 6.5.   Now it is BJP 35.4 INC 31.8 AAP 30.2.  PECP merged into AAP since 2013 so we can assume that its 2013 vote share transferred into AAP.  BJP got lucky on this one as the INC candidate seems to be fairly resilient.  If the INC swing toward AAP was similar to rest of Delhi then the AAP would have beaten BJP for sure here too.  In fact what took place here was what the BJP was counting on taking place in lots of districts only it did not take place.  

Rohini where AAP won in 2013 with AAP 43.9 BJP 42.2 INC 12.8 Now it is BJP 50.1 AAP 45.6 INC 2.9.  Note that the 2013 AAP winner had a falling out with AAP and was not renominated.   Most likely the 2013 AAP winner worked to undermine the AAP in this seat which seems to have worked as there was a swing from INC to AAP but also a swing from AAP to BJP.

Vishwas Nagar where  BJP won in 2013 with BJP 38.2 INC 31.5 AAP 25.9.  Now it is BJP  45.3 AAP 37.4 INC 16.1.  Here the BJP seems to have won a seat they actually deserve.  They got a positive swing from 2013 to beat back the AAP who also got a swing from INC.

So if it was not for an unusually strong performance of INC in Mustafabad and AAP infighting in Rohini, the result literally could have been AAP 69 BJP 1.  Wow.

[jaichind]

In the 5 districts where in 2013 the INC won by large margins saw massive swings.  In none of these districts was the BJP likely to win (perhaps Gandhi Nagar) but the swing toward AAP was still huge anyway.  I guess it was the desire of the anti-BJP vote based to make sure the AAP is the largest party.  This time around JD(U) is backing AAP in most places so the JD(U) vote are in 2013 seems to have transferred to AAP.

Okhla.  In 2013 it was INC 36.5 AAP 17.1 BJP 17 BSP 14.9 JD(U) 7.1 LJP 2.7 SP 1.8.  Now it is AAP 62.8 BJP 23.9 INC 12.1 BSP 0.4

Badli.  In 2013 it was INC 45 BJP 25.9 AAP 25.7.  Now it is AAP 51.4 INC 26.4 BJP 19.9

Seelam Pur.  In 2013 it was INC 46.8 BJP 24.9 BSP 13.5 AAP 13.1.  Now it is AAP 51.4 BJP 26.4 INC 21.4 BSP 0.6

Gandhi Nagar. In 2013 it was INC 48.7 BJP 31.8 AAP 16.5.  Now it is AAP 45.4 BJP 38.8 INC 14.5

Chandni Chowk.  In 2013 it was INC 38 BJP 26.1 AAP 22.1 JD(U) 10.2%.  Now it is AAP 49.6 BJP 24.9 INC 24.2

I think we should include Matia Mahal where it was won in 2013 by a JD(U) candidate.  The thing is that this JD(U) won the seat every time since 1993 but changed parties almost each time.  In 1993 and 1998 he won as JD, then in 2003 he won as JD(S), 2008 he won as LJP, and in 2013 he won as JD(U).  In 2015 he ran as INC so this seat if add up his personal vote plus the INC vote should also count as a INC stronghold. 

Matia Mahal.  In 2013 it was JD(U) 31.9 INC 27.8 AAP 26.2 BJP 8.5.  Now it is AAP 59.4 INC 26.8 BJP 11.4

[jaichind]

Of course we have Krishna Nagar where Kiran Bedi, former Anna movement comrade of AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal and the BJP CM candidate,  lost a BJP stronghold. 

In 2013 it was BJP 58.6 INC 22.1 AAP 14.8.  Now it is AAP 48.1 BJP 46.5 INC 4.5

[jaichind]

I made the assertion that the BJP swing to AAP is larger than what the numbers show because some of the 2013 BSP vote actually went to BJP in my view which in turn means the BJP -> AAP swing is larger than what the overall numbers suggests.  Looking deeper into this I concluded that my assertion is partially true.  In places where there is high Muslim concentration, the Dalit based BSP vote did migrate to BJP to some extent even as more of it went to AAP along with the Muslim based AAP vote.  The Dalit-Muslim rivalry did play a role where some Dalits went to BJP to counter the Muslim shift to AAP.  In places where the Muslim vote is small the 2013 BSP vote mostly went directly to AAP.

[ag]

The ontersting thing is what AAP does now. They say they will go for UP. That could confuse things big time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Barnes]

I second the feeling.

Although, I will say that having 67 out of 70 seats is perhaps too large of a majority.  I do think the opposition should be fairly well stocked in order to allow for some debate and discussion, so long as they remain in opposition that is.

[jaichind]

Winning 67 out of 70 seats is one of the most lopsided election victories in Indian assembly election history.  Out of all the significant Indian states (I am excluding tiny and very special states like Sikkim) the only other election that is like this is 1991 Tamil Nadu assembly election in the aftermath of Rajiv Gandhi's assassination.  The perception that the DMK was supporting LTTE which in turn killed Rajiv Gandhi in TN turn the election into a massive tidal wave for AIADMK-INC-ICS alliance.  

In 1991 TN assembly elections AIADMK-INC-ICS won 225 out of 234 seats with 59.8% while the rival DMK-TMK-CPM-JD-CPI won 8 seats with a vote share of 30.1%.  Since this election was a bipolar contest it is more impressive with what AAP accomplished as 2015 Delhi was in theory a 3 way contest between BJP-SAD vs AAP vs INC.

BTW, the 1991 TN massive victory by AIADMK-INC would plant seeds of disaster in 1996 when AIADMK-INC was crushed in a landslide almost as large, where AIADMK-INC was reduced to 4 seats with 27.1% while DMK-TMC-CPI-AIFB won 221 seats with 53.8% which is the other election which is close to the scale of the AAP victory.  This election was a 3 way race with a third front of MDMK-CPM-JD winning 2 seats with 7.9% of the vote as well as a significant 4th front of PMI-AIIC which got 4 seats with 4.6% of the vote. In that sense the 1996 TN assembly election was very similar to the 2015 Delhi assembly election.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Wow, quite something.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This is probably the best election result we've had in a while. If only the AAP could rise all over India, because someone needs to challenge Modi and the Nehru-Gandhis have had their turn for long enough.