Map of Trump support by district (South, Appalachia and the industrial North)

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/upshot/donald-trumps-strongest-supporters-a-certain-kind-of-democrat.html?_r=0
https://twitter.com/UpshotNYT/status/682541605191073792

The Civis estimates are based on interviews with more than 11,000 Republican-leaning respondents since August.

Mr. Trump’s best state is West Virginia, followed by New York. Eight of Mr. Trump’s 10 best congressional districts are in New York, including several on Long Island. North Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana and South Carolina follow.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wow, if not for the TRUMP hotel and casino in Las Vegas, I'd be getting pretty nervous actually about his chances.

Thanks for sharing though. This is amazing.

[Tender Branson]

AR should be wayyy more Trumpish than what the map shows ... (unless Cruz is strong there).

[HillOfANight]

His strength in the South is blunted only by Ted Cruz in Texas and Mike Huckabee in Arkansas.

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Proud of you, NC-07.

[pbrower2a]

How weak his support is in Utah, Wyoming, the district including Mesa, Arizona, and southeastern Idaho (Mormon country)!

I can understand Texas (Cruz).

[Holmes]

Since August though? A bit outdated.

Also that Remington poll had MO-07 as TRUMP'S worst district in Missouri and here it's one of his best. So district level polling is pretty crappy.

[Mr. Morden]

Someone should really plot the correlation between Trump support and the PVI of the congressional district in question, since it's highly important to the delegate allocation.  Does Trump do better or worse in heavily Democratic districts as opposed to Republican ones?

[Tender Branson]

His strength in the South is blunted only by Ted Cruz in Texas and Mike Huckabee in Arkansas.

I think Huckabee will drop out right after IA, but does it mean he's still going to be on the AR ballot or not ? I guess it would depend if the ballots for AR have been printed by then or not ...

[mencken]

Someone should really plot the correlation between Trump support and the PVI of the congressional district in question, since it's highly important to the delegate allocation.  Does Trump do better or worse in heavily Democratic districts as opposed to Republican ones?

Where does congressional district allocation matter? Based on the map it looks like Trump could easily win all of the delegates in some of the Super Tuesday states.

[Devils30]

I have doubts about Trump support in NY, the NYC area has more educated GOP voters and upstate has trended Dem unlike Appalachia.

[HillOfANight]

Someone should really plot the correlation between Trump support and the PVI of the congressional district in question, since it's highly important to the delegate allocation.  Does Trump do better or worse in heavily Democratic districts as opposed to Republican ones?

https://twitter.com/UpshotNYT/status/682584768320520192
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/682593463746072576

Less affluence, less education correlated with Trump support, as well as "measures of racial animus, like IAT or Google searches"



Specifically about "heavily Democratic districts", just looking at California or Atlanta, doesn't look like it. But back to their point about "racial animus", usually the more black % a state is, the less whites are likely to support Dems, which shows up here in the South, and maybe New York as well (or his NY connections).

[Bacon King]

Someone should really plot the correlation between Trump support and the PVI of the congressional district in question, since it's highly important to the delegate allocation.  Does Trump do better or worse in heavily Democratic districts as opposed to Republican ones?

I believe that only applies to Democratic primaries - as far as I can tell, all districts in a state are always worth the same amount of delegates for that state's GOP nomination contest

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I have doubts about Trump support in NY, the NYC area has more educated GOP voters and upstate has trended Dem unlike Appalachia.

Just because he does well with that group nationally doesn't mean the trend extends to his home state where the personality just fits the entire culture.

[Bacon King]

Also here's a different measurement of GOP primary support by Congressional district:

https://www.isidewith.com/map/AGdm/2016-republican-primary#z5

[HillOfANight]

http://www.peachpundit.com/2015/12/31/closing-out-2015-trump-support-remains-strong/

Analysis of Trump support in GA. Basically, where Democrats are dominant (Atlanta, black belt), Republicans are more moderate (they have lots of black neighbors).

However, elsewhere in Georgia, where Atlanta is seen as icky, Trump does better.

[Skye]

lol at Utah. I guess Mormons really aren't attracted to Trump.

[Bismarck]

It's odd that Indiana 8 is Trumps worst of the rural Indiana districts. I would've guessed that'd be his best.

[Mr. Morden]

Someone should really plot the correlation between Trump support and the PVI of the congressional district in question, since it's highly important to the delegate allocation.  Does Trump do better or worse in heavily Democratic districts as opposed to Republican ones?

I believe that only applies to Democratic primaries - as far as I can tell, all districts in a state are always worth the same amount of delegates for that state's GOP nomination contest

No, you don't understand.  It's precisely because each district is worth the same number of delegates that the distribution of a candidate’s support is so important.  If all of a Republican candidate’s support is in heavily Democratic districts, then they can win a large number of delegates from a relatively small number of votes.  That’s part of why McCain won so many delegates in 2008, even while getting less than 50% of the popular vote in the primaries.  He swept most of the urban districts, with the small number of GOP voters in those districts.  If Huckabee’s national %age of the vote had been swapped with McCain’s, Huckabee would have won far fewer delegates than McCain did IRL, because Huck’s voters were largely in rural areas where they were wasted.  Lots and lots of voters required to win the rural districts.

We’ve talked about this many times on this forum, but here’s a recap from 538:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-primary-rules-might-doom-carson-and-cruz/

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[mencken]

Someone should really plot the correlation between Trump support and the PVI of the congressional district in question, since it's highly important to the delegate allocation.  Does Trump do better or worse in heavily Democratic districts as opposed to Republican ones?

I believe that only applies to Democratic primaries - as far as I can tell, all districts in a state are always worth the same amount of delegates for that state's GOP nomination contest

No, you don't understand.  It's precisely because each district is worth the same number of delegates that the distribution of a candidate’s support is so important.  If all of a Republican candidate’s support is in heavily Democratic districts, then they can win a large number of delegates from a relatively small number of votes.  That’s part of why McCain won so many delegates in 2008, even while getting less than 50% of the popular vote in the primaries.  He swept most of the urban districts, with the small number of GOP voters in those districts.  If Huckabee’s national %age of the vote had been swapped with McCain’s, Huckabee would have won far fewer delegates, because Huck’s voters were largely in rural areas where they were wasted.  Lots and lots of voters required to win the rural districts.

We’ve talked about this many times on this forum, but here’s a recap from 538:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-primary-rules-might-doom-carson-and-cruz/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump gets 40% in Alabama's 7th, about the same as the rest of the state. He gets 30-34% in Georgia's four Democratic districts, slightly lower than in the rest of the state. In Massachusetts the district delegates are allocated based on statewide percentages. In Tennessee's urban districts he receives 36% and 42%, about average for the state but lower than the Appalachian districts. I figure Texas is Cruz country so that would be a futile exercise. Not sure if Virginia's redistricting will occur before the primary but Trump gets 30%, 32%, and 38% in Virginia's three Democratic districts, once again far less than his Appalachian numbers. So far it looks like Trump only has a slight handicap going into the SEC primaries.

After that only Louisiana matters as far as district numbers go-Trump's 38% in New Orleans is not that much lower than the rest of the state. Following that comes Mississippi, where Trump once again gets 38%, average for the state. Florida is winner-take-all, which might have made sense in an era where Bush or Rubio seemed competent enough to win their home state. The first state where Trump looks like he could lose based on district disparities is Illinois, where he gets 25-32% in the heavily Democratic districts but gets low 30s in the collar counties and Egypt. Trump gets 29% and 33% in Missouri's urban districts, lower than the 33-39% in the rest of the state.

It is wishful thinking to believe that a few extra delegates in Virginia, Illinois, and Missouri are going to be enough to overcome Trump sweeping the overwhelming majority of the first 30 states.

[VPH]

Did they not even poll Kansas? I find it exceedingly hard to believe that Trump isn't catching on here...

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/682630368365776896

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[HillOfANight]

This is cool too. Carson peaks in November, then Cruz starts to pick up some steam. Huckabee clutches on to Arkansas.

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Even with all those interviews, it's not enough to get a good sample for each district. So they extrapolated from those surveys using demographics for small areas.

https://civisanalytics.com/blog/data-science/2015/12/31/republican-primary-in-one-gif/

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Did they not even poll Kansas? I find it exceedingly hard to believe that Trump isn't catching on here...

The color scale used for this map exaggerates the differences.  27% is in the lightest shade, 38% is in the darkest.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even with all those interviews, it's not enough to get a good sample for each district. So they extrapolated from those surveys using demographics for small areas.

For those that don't understand what this means, it means that the figures are trash believed only by the gullible.