Likelihood to win the nomination
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Author Topic: Likelihood to win the nomination  (Read 13065 times)
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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E: -1.42, S: -0.52

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« Reply #50 on: February 24, 2016, 07:05:43 PM »
I've decided to leave my odds alone.

Quote from: Wulfric on February 21, 2016, 09:00:51 PM
KING TRUMP 46
Rubio 25
Cruz 20
Kasich 8
Carson 1

Clinton 87
Sanders 13
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Orser67
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« Reply #51 on: February 24, 2016, 07:16:06 PM »
trump 80
Rubio 15
Cruz 3
Kasich 1
Other 1

Clinton 95
Sanders 5
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #52 on: February 24, 2016, 07:35:00 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 21, 2016, 02:15:16 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 10, 2016, 07:46:34 PM
Clinton 65
Sanders 35

Cruz 45
TRUMP 40
Rubio 10
Brokered Convention 5

Update following yesterday's failed stumpings on both sides:

Clinton 90
Sanders 5
Other 5

TRUMP 60
Rubio 35
Other 5

Post-Nevada

TRUMP 67
Rubio 30
Other 3
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mencken
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« Reply #53 on: February 24, 2016, 07:55:09 PM »
McCain and Romney were both at 80% in the betting markets after similar victories in the key contest prior to Super Tuesday (Florida and Michigan, respectively). I'll dock Trump down to 75%, simply because he would be such a departure from the traditional nominee. On the other hand, I don't really see a plausible path to a majority for Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich, so 25% goes to a Pre-Convention Deal.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #54 on: February 24, 2016, 07:58:43 PM »
Rubio 50
Trump 40
Cruz  5
Other 5

Clinton 90
Sanders 9
Other 1
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #55 on: February 25, 2016, 08:47:34 AM »
Quote from: Maxwell on February 24, 2016, 05:36:16 PM
Post-Nevada

93% Trump
2% Rubio
2% Kasich
1% Cruz
2% WTF BROKERED CONVENTION

Yeah, and

Clinton 90
Sanders 10
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Volrath50
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E: -3.35, S: -5.57

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« Reply #56 on: February 25, 2016, 08:52:06 AM »
Trump 70
Rubio 23
Other (Brokered con, Carson reveals he is Jesus, etc): 4
Cruz 3
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #57 on: February 25, 2016, 08:55:29 AM »
« Edited: February 25, 2016, 09:01:57 AM by Sanders beats Rubio! »
Clinton 49.99 Sanders 50.01
Trump 65
Rubio 34.9
all others .1

edit: General Election Democrat 66 Republican 34 (odds not results)
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #58 on: February 27, 2016, 08:23:49 PM »
Clinton goes back above 90% in my odds for the first time in a LONG while:

Clinton 92%
Sanders 8%
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #59 on: February 27, 2016, 08:29:12 PM »
Clinton 90 (+5)
Sanders 10 (-5)

Trump 60 (+10)
Rubio 29 (-1)
Cruz 10 (-9)
Kasich 1 (nc)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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E: -7.87, S: -3.83

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« Reply #60 on: February 27, 2016, 08:30:41 PM »
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 21, 2016, 02:25:55 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 10, 2016, 04:16:58 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 08, 2016, 12:39:19 AM
Dem:

80% Hillary
20% Bernie


GOP:

35% Trump
30% Cruz
10% Rubio
8% Christie
7% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

75% Hillary
25% Bernie


GOP:

55% Trump
25% Cruz
10% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

90% Hillary
10% Bernie


GOP:

70% Trump
20% Rubio
5% Cruz
5% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

80% Trump
13% Rubio
2% Cruz
5% Someone else
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #61 on: February 27, 2016, 08:37:46 PM »
80% Trump
10% Rubio
6% Cruz
3% Kasich
1% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick (Romney)

Rating: Likely Trump

91% Clinton
9% Sanders

Rating: Likely/Safe Clinton
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #62 on: February 27, 2016, 08:41:30 PM »
Post-Christie, Post-SC

98% Trump
1% Rubio
1% Weird Brokered Convention

99.5% Clinton
0.5% Sanders

It would really take something amazing for there not to be a Trump v. Clinton general election at this point in time.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #63 on: February 27, 2016, 08:42:01 PM »
Quote from: Sanders beats Rubio! on February 25, 2016, 08:55:29 AM
Clinton 49.99 Sanders 50.01
Trump 65
Rubio 34.9
all others .1

edit: General Election Democrat 66 Republican 34 (odds not results)
Clinton's odds just went up with her "yuge" win tonight. I would like to modify my prediction.
It is now 53% Clinton and 47% Sanders.
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Xing
xingkerui
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E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #64 on: February 27, 2016, 08:42:49 PM »
Trump 85%
Rubio 10%
Cruz 5%

Clinton 95%
Sanders 5%
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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E: 7.35, S: 5.57


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« Reply #65 on: February 27, 2016, 08:54:47 PM »
Trump- 60%
Rubio- 35%
Other- 5%

Clinton- 99.7%
Biden/Craziness- 0.2%
Sanders- 0.1%
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #66 on: February 27, 2016, 08:55:37 PM »
Clinton: 88% (+3)
Sanders: 12% (-3)

I'll move it up to 95 if she performs like she did tonight on Super Tuesday.
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trickmind
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« Reply #67 on: February 27, 2016, 08:58:15 PM »
Trump - 89%
Kasich - 5%
Brokered Convention/Smoke Filled Room: 5%
Rubio - 1%

Hillary - 98%
Biden (if Hillary gets indicted or something) - 1.5%
Sanders -.5%
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #68 on: February 28, 2016, 12:10:28 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 24, 2016, 07:35:00 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 21, 2016, 02:15:16 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 10, 2016, 07:46:34 PM
Clinton 65
Sanders 35

Cruz 45
TRUMP 40
Rubio 10
Brokered Convention 5

Update following yesterday's failed stumpings on both sides:

Clinton 90
Sanders 5
Other 5

TRUMP 60
Rubio 35
Other 5

Post-Nevada

TRUMP 67
Rubio 30
Other 3

Post-South Carolina

Clinton 97
Other 2
Sanders 1
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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E: -1.42, S: -0.52

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« Reply #69 on: March 01, 2016, 11:44:37 PM »
After a bad night for Sanders:

Clinton 97
Sanders 3
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #70 on: March 02, 2016, 02:03:07 AM »
Clinton: 92% (+4)
Sanders: 8% (-4)

Trump: 80% (+/- 0)
Cruz: 12% (+4)
Rubio: 8% (-4)
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #71 on: March 02, 2016, 02:26:20 AM »
Clinton 92 (+2)
Sanders 8 (-2)

Trump 69 (+9)
Rubio 20 (-9)
Cruz 10 (nc)
Kasich 1 (nc)
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Orser67
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #72 on: March 02, 2016, 02:56:30 AM »
Quote from: Orser67 on February 24, 2016, 07:16:06 PM
trump 80
Rubio 15
Cruz 3
Kasich 1
Other 1

Clinton 95
Sanders 5

trump 75
Rubio 15
Cruz 5
Kasich 3
Other 2

Clinton 95
Sanders 5
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jaichind
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« Reply #73 on: March 02, 2016, 08:00:41 AM »
trump 85
Rubio   5
Cruz    3
Other   7

Clinton 92
Sanders 8
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,935
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

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« Reply #74 on: March 02, 2016, 12:27:34 PM »
KING TRUMP 45
Cruz 26
Rubio 20
Kasich 3
Carson 0
Brokered Convention alternate "compromise nominee" 6
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