Democratic South Carolina Primary results thread (polls close @7pm ET)

[The Other Castro]

Number of absentee ballots returned so far in the Dem. primary: 52.000

In the GOP primary, it was 62.000 and overall turnout was 750.000

So, 650K turnout is likely today (up more than 100K from 2008).

I would be extremely surprised if turnout was that high. I was thinking more along the lines of 400K.

[The Other Castro]

I believe someone said before that the county to watch for a Sanders win is Pickens. I saw that Charleston is also a potential close county. There was this handy chart on Reddit suggesting that a hypothetical Sanders SC result of 38% would correspond to about a 2.5% win in Pickens and about a 4% loss in Charleston.

[The Other Castro]

I have a feeling this is going to be a bigger Clinton drubbing than I predicted.

[The Other Castro]

I have a feeling this is going to be a bigger Clinton drubbing than I predicted.

I'm still predicting 59-38-3, but this low turnout is sounding really bad for Sanders.

At this rate I'm just hoping he comes within 30 points. Also, exit polls should be coming in 10-20 minutes but CNN says their coverage starts in 1 hour and 10 minutes.

[The Other Castro]

Well, at least I can still find entertainment in Trump sweeping almost all the ST states.  

[The Other Castro]

harry enten saying hillary will get 75% of the vote based on the exit poll data/

Wow, numbers like that could mean that she wins every county.

She probably only needs about 65% to win every county.

[The Other Castro]

With an exit poll like that, it's hard to see Sanders breaking 35%.

[The Other Castro]

This could be an epic 70/30 split tonight

Honestly that seems more likely than a 60/40 split at this point.

[The Other Castro]

Based on CNN's pre-coverage, it looks like the spin will be rooted in Clinton's performance here in relation to Sanders' NH win (22.4%+).

[The Other Castro]

CNN is again pushing the "she needs to win by more than 22 points" narrative.

[The Other Castro]

I wonder what Sanders is going to say tonight, since he can't use that "it's basically a draw" line when he loses by 30 points.

We made up 20 points in two days! Momentum thy name is Sanders.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=230413.0

[The Other Castro]

CNN says Clinton may be attacking Trump as part of her victory speech.

[The Other Castro]

I'm guessing the exit poll toplines will show something like a 67-33 race.

[The Other Castro]

Whites (34%): 58-42 Sanders
Non-Whites (66%): 83-17 Clinton

That looks kind of off...

[The Other Castro]

Holy race gap Batman!

[The Other Castro]

First votes in:

Clinton 304 (89%)
Sanders 39 (11%)

Is Edgefield like 150% Black?

[The Other Castro]

Well, looks like it's time for Sanders to get a spray tan because he needs to get some serious Hispanic margins in future states.

[The Other Castro]

Do these Clinton scores among Blacks indicate anything other than a personality cult ? Low information vote ? I mean dayum !

You're verging on some racism there...

[The Other Castro]

I'm guessing this'll end somewhere around a 37 point lead for Clinton, damnnnnnn.

[The Other Castro]

Yeah, I'm calling it at at least 80-20 now.

Bye, Bernie.

Lol don't worry it will tighten plenty.

[The Other Castro]

The bright side is this calms my fears somewhat about Clinton being unable to generate enthusiasm in a general election. Though she's not my first choice, Trump cannot be president.

[The Other Castro]

Congrats, President Clinton.

[The Other Castro]

Good job Clemson for being the only pollster to come close to the actual result.

[The Other Castro]

Yeah he should probably drop out after March 15th...

[The Other Castro]

Looks like Averroës Nix got the closest prediction, as in he predicted the highest Clinton vote share because nobody even considered the possibility that Clinton could break 70.