Hillary's EV Ceiling

[Human]

Also, why is everyone marking Utah red on their maps? A recent poll has shown Donald Trump ahead by 12 points in Utah during Clinton's peak nationwide:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=242834.0

Donald Trump is still ahead in Utah by 12 points despite the fact that he's behind by 10-12 points nationwide.

[Kingpoleon]

Stop being ing delusional guys. Donald Trump is not losing states like Utah, South Carolina, and especially Indiana.

Yeah, Indiana going for a Democrat would be ridiculous.  Not even in Hillary's wildest dreams should she go for it.  When was the last time it even went for a Democrat?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=241793.0
^^
A recent poll has shown Donald Trump up 14 points in Indiana (better than Mitt Romney).

Also, Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite amongst most people I know. I don't know a single Hillary supporter. Most people I know hate Hillary (sadly).

Let me warn you: Republicans get crushed when they bring up such anecdotal evidence. That's a pollster nobody's heard of, by the way. I wouldn't give it much credibility.

Indiana is the closest state that routinely is under polled. No way of predicting it unless that changes mid-October.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Stop being ing delusional guys. Donald Trump is not losing states like Utah, South Carolina, and especially Indiana.

Yeah, Indiana going for a Democrat would be ridiculous.  Not even in Hillary's wildest dreams should she go for it.  When was the last time it even went for a Democrat?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=241793.0
^^
A recent poll has shown Donald Trump up 14 points in Indiana (better than Mitt Romney).

Also, Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite amongst most people I know. I don't know a single Hillary supporter. Most people I know hate Hillary (sadly).

I live in Indianapolis and almost all of my friends are Millennials.  I could tell you a different set of anecdotes.

That said, yeah, Indiana is in the bag for Trump, sadly.

[Averroës Nix]

If we're really talking about a plausible "ceiling," then I don't think that we can rule out a total Trump collapse, with Clinton taking over 55% of the NPV and Johnson running in the double digits in the most Republican states.

[IceSpear]

States like UT/SC/MT are not going to flip before IN. Are you all assuming Pence is some beloved figure there or something? Because he isn't. At all.

[IceSpear]

Stop being ing delusional guys. Donald Trump is not losing states like Utah, South Carolina, and especially Indiana.

Yeah, Indiana going for a Democrat would be ridiculous.  Not even in Hillary's wildest dreams should she go for it.  When was the last time it even went for a Democrat?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=241793.0
^^
A recent poll has shown Donald Trump up 14 points in Indiana (better than Mitt Romney).

Also, Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite amongst most people I know. I don't know a single Hillary supporter. Most people I know hate Hillary (sadly).

A Republican pollster taken during the time when the race was very close nationally. We already know Indiana will not vote Dem in a close race, but that's not what the question is asking.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

States like UT/SC/MT are not going to flip before IN. Are you all assuming Pence is some beloved figure there or something? Because he isn't. At all.

Trump is uniquely bad for Utah. The state is going to swing left hard, and it's not going to fit at all with whatever the nationwide trend is. Even in a Trump victory scenario, I see him doing significantly worse than McCain in Utah. Johnson should do quite well there. Clinton might be able to eek out a win with something like 40% of the vote. In IN she'd need a majority/strong plurality.

That being said, I do consider UT/MT/IN as being part of Clinton's ceiling. SC isn't.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

States like UT/SC/MT are not going to flip before IN. Are you all assuming Pence is some beloved figure there or something? Because he isn't. At all.

Among the voters Trump needs lock up the state, he is.

[LLR]

405-133

[President Johnson]

Depends on how many votes Gary Johnson gets. If he's around or above 5%, he would take enough votes away from #NeverTrump Republicans to switch a few red states to Hillary.

If Johnson isn't above 3-4%:

375 - 163


If Johnson is at 5% or more; absolute ceiling:

417 - 121

[bedstuy]

420 dude!!!

[nicholas.slaydon]

[elcorazon]

this question is all about what you view as plausible. We all know that the most likely result is clear in about 40 + states. The question isn't about that though. It's about a best possible scenario for Hillary. I mean, given the state of the race and Trump's being a loose cannon, I wouldn't ignore the possibility that it is like 1980 when all but the most partisan of states swung to Reagan. You could see a lot of surprising states swinging to Hillary. Maybe Trump just gets Oklahoma, Alabama, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Idaho, Wyoming, Louisiana, Nebraska & Kansas. I mean this isn't insane in this environment. Most likely the Dakotas, Utah, Alaska, Indiana also remain Republican, but COULD they go for Hillary? maybe? Also the Johnson factor could play a role in a blowout. If Hillary is a near sure thing, you may see some drift to Johnson as a protest against Trump, causing more dominos to fall.

[Orser67]

I just don't think Clinton will do well enough with Southern whites in SC and MS to win those states. She only wins Utah if Trump suffers massive defections to Johnson/McMullin, but I think that's possible.

[136or142]

538

[HAnnA MArin County]

Clinton/Kaine 391 EV
Trump/Pence 147 EV

This, to me, represents the BEST Hillary could ever do, on her best possible day.

Discuss.

I agree with this, though I'm still skeptical about Utah.

[elcorazon]

538

this is actually technically correct

[Nym90]

The Fivethirtyeight polls-plus model gives all of the red states below at least a 10 percent chance of voting for Clinton. This map would produce a 451-87 Clinton victory.

[elcorazon]

The Fivethirtyeight polls-plus model gives all of the red states below at least a 10 percent chance of voting for Clinton. This map would produce a 451-87 Clinton victory.

This is correct unless there's more comments like today's 2nd amendment comment - although I still think Indiana would  swing if all those other states went for Clinton

[AGA]

If we're really talking about a plausible "ceiling," then I don't think that we can rule out a total Trump collapse, with Clinton taking over 55% of the NPV and Johnson running in the double digits in the most Republican states.

WV?

[Dr. Arch]

If we're really talking about a plausible "ceiling," then I don't think that we can rule out a total Trump collapse, with Clinton taking over 55% of the NPV and Johnson running in the double digits in the most Republican states.

WV?

[AGA]

Here are the states on 538's polls-plus model that Clinton has at least a 5% chance of winning:

Utah seems like it should not be here, but the polls-plus model factors in election history.

[ElectionsGuy]

All my 'lean R' states in Clinton's column:

Clinton - 385
Trump - 153

Maybe add Indiana and make it 396.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This only happens if Trump talks about legitimate rape, says that slavery was a good thing, etc....

Clinton 482
Trump 56

Kansas has not been Brownbacked quite enough to be in danger of flipping.  Even if Trump goes full Akin/Duke.

[Sir Mohamed]

Absolute ceiling in a landslide, though unrealistic:

✓ Clinton: 473 EVs.
Trump: 65 EVs.