GOP Panic in North Carolina

[Xing]

I'm almost tempted to just say to hell with it and allow the Democrats to win just to get rid of McCrory or Burr.

There's absolutely no way Trump can win without NC, though.

[Hammy]

If Trump narrowly loses NC, this is his only path:

Trump 271
Clinton 267

Unlikely, but not impossible.

Is it even possible in this cycle for PA/FL to go R while NC goes D?

[Ronnie]

Looks like the "Solid South" might make a comeback sooner than we thought!

[Dr. Arch]

Looks like the "Solid South" might make a comeback sooner than we thought!

Yes, your party is about to become a Southern party again.

Please no. I like the cold. Colorado will be the only state I'll be able to stand, politically and climatically XD

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The NBA just moved the All-Star game from Charlotte as a direct consequence of their anti-LGBT law. It's a disaster for the state and it's obvious who's to blame.

[Young Conservative]

To illustrate how gerrymandered the NC legislature is, in 2012 Democrats won the popular vote but not only did the R's keep their majority, they kept their SUPERmajority.

Those are the US house seats youre referring to not the state legislature

[Badger]

To illustrate how gerrymandered the NC legislature is, in 2012 Democrats won the popular vote but not only did the R's keep their majority, they kept their SUPERmajority.

Those are the US house seats youre referring to not the state legislature

Is that true PU (heh, heh)? Are you talking US House or State?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I said months ago that HB2 could cripple the NC GOP far more than Trump or anything else every could.



And frankly I am getting sick and tired of every four years, having people come out flailing their arms about the national campaign needing to come to the rescue. Like Tommy Thompson in 2012, saying he expected the top of the ticket to carry him. WTF? Multi-term popular governor is relying on Willard Mittens Romney, to carry him to victory?

Seriously, these people need to get off their butts and make their own case for themselves. And at this stage, that includes Burr as well.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I know the state legislative districts are too gerrymandered to shift the balance of control, but how likely is it that a down ballot disaster could cost the GOP their veto-proof majority in the state chambers? HB2 demonstrated that the NC GOP assembly is more than willing to ram through unpopular bills with no concern for consequences.

[Virginiá]

I know the state legislative districts are too gerrymandered to shift the balance of control, but how likely is it that a down ballot disaster could cost the GOP their veto-proof majority in the state chambers? HB2 demonstrated that the NC GOP assembly is more than willing to ram through unpopular bills with no concern for consequences.

Democrats need to either win a net 5 State Senate seats and/or a net 4 seats in the State House to break the GOP's supermajority by a slim margin.

I didn't look at all of the State House races in 2014 but off the top of my head there are at least a half dozen or more marginal districts where a wave could sweep the incumbents out of office. There are theoretically enough State Senate seats to win, based on 2014 where they were < 55% R, and some closer ones even, but I don't know the particulars of those races/areas and the results of 2012 make me wonder if presidential years might actually be better for Republicans in some districts, considering the results of 2012.

I'm bullish on this though mainly because of the shift in support for each candidate among various demographics and what that could theoretically mean for downballot races, particularly in the suburbs. We don't need many seats at all to break that supermajority in at least the House, so yes I definitely think it's possible this year if Hillary performs well in the state. I do think NC Republicans pushed the envelope too far too quickly, legislative-wise, and I don't expect it to be a good year for them.

Also worth noting is that the legislative maps were thrown out and will be redrawn by 2018, so the GOP probably won't have a supermajority in both chambers by 2019, regardless of what happens in this election.

[dspNY]

I said months ago that HB2 could cripple the NC GOP far more than Trump or anything else every could.



And frankly I am getting sick and tired of every four years, having people come out flailing their arms about the national campaign needing to come to the rescue. Like Tommy Thompson in 2012, saying he expected the top of the ticket to carry him. WTF? Multi-term popular governor is relying on Willard Mittens Romney, to carry him to victory?

Seriously, these people need to get off their butts and make their own case for themselves. And at this stage, that includes Burr as well.

HB2 has hurt McCrory but according to GOP people in NC, McCrory is only down a couple while Trump is down big

[NOT gonna be banned soon]

Graham was right, if we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.

 McGovern and Fraser, but other than that,  Trump

[NOT gonna be banned soon]

Oh great, I just realized that there is a profanity filter