Atlas Google Consumer Survey polls megathread

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Can someone repost the link of how to do this?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Can someone repost the link of how to do this?

If you click on the link to cinyc's survey (https://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=aeydlbwif5ppmwicw6exhbb3zy&question=1) it should give you an option to redeem a 50$ coupon, this will lead you to a page where you can construct the survey for 50$ off. Just began a survey of Idaho.

I'm doing a Tennessee poll, then.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

My TN poll is not quite 10% complete yet (and will probably have to be weighted), but the results are really interesting and surprising.  More will come once I have more data to confirm or deny what I am seeing so far.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

These look great, but are those answering the survey able to see who is "sponsoring" it in any way? I would do this if totally anonymous, however I don't want hundreds of people seeing my first/name and email.

No, it is that question that appears when you click on a news story on many websites.  I viewed a sample of my poll.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A little over 20% in.  What I said before appears to have been a false alarm.  The results now are looking interesting and telling, but not nearly as stunning.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A little over 20% in.  What I said before appears to have been a false alarm.  The results now are looking interesting and telling, but not nearly as stunning.

Give us a hint.  Maybe like PPP sometimes does and suggest a D happiness level (or an R happiness level if you prefer).

It can change based on the remaining 80% of the responses, but I would give this a D happiness level of a 2-3 right now (R happiness of a 6-7, L happiness of a 8-9).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How do we weight them, again?  Since it still has a ways to go to get to 333, I was thinking of providing pre-debate and post-debate numbers, along with an overall total.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How do we weight them, again?  Since it still has a ways to go to get to 333, I was thinking of providing pre-debate and post-debate numbers, along with an overall total.

The sample's probably too small to do that.  Even 333 is a somewhat small sample for a poll.  And, after weighting, the 333 is probably going to be even smaller than that, since Google doesn't include demographic data for all respondents.

How to weight these is an interesting question.  They're technically adult polls, and Google's weighting will give you the adult figure.  If you want to weight to RV or LV, start with amdcpus' spreadsheets here:

Template: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10semu5xRZ-D6gG7J3d19asXVMnoCvh7G2RNuySOv_RI/edit?usp=sharing

(Obviously, copy it over to your own spreadsheet in Excel or Google Sheets, first.)

Get the 2012 RV/LV data for Tennessee from Census' website.  Or use my spreadsheet for almost all the info from all states here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11CzmVw3tIIDCDsIQ0QMlKDq45t6RqpKry8rJLwG_In4/edit?usp=sharing

If you want to do a RV weighting, you can get the data to put in amdcpus' amount and total columns (B&C) from Column E for your state of the "by age" tab on my spreadsheet.  You'll have to splt up the 45-64s into 45-54 and 55-64s.  Do that using the data from the Census bureau at the link at the top of my Splitting 45-64s tab in that spreadsheet.  Finally, you'll need to compute the male/female percentage to put in cells F2 and F10 of the template, respectively.  Do that by calculating the male/female percentage for TN in Column C of the By Sex/Race tab of my spreadsheet.  For RV, the percentage turnout by age column should be all 1.  

For a LV spreadsheet, you need to take the percent voted for each subgroup in Column K.  Assuming 65+ is the largest, the formula should be percentage of 18-24s voting/percentage of 65+s voting, in cells G3 and G10, percentage of 25-34s voting/percentage of 65+s voting in cells G4 and G11, etc. You also might want to replace the male/female percentages with the percentage that actually voted, instead of percentage registered.  You don't need to replace the data in columns B and C - the numbers in Column K will do that for you.

Finally, get the PERCENTAGE of age by sex for each candidate by clicking on the relevant boxes, and place that data in columns H, J, L, N, P, etc.  

When done, you can look at my SD spreadsheets to see if yours looks similar:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GqiTvFhwr2uhPdGUx7jKSYPgdRi6nwedHLgkS8PK0DU/edit?usp=sharing

amdcpus' template should then work to weight the data.  It's a bit strange to weight adult data to RV or LV standards - but so be it.

I'll PM amdcpus to make sure my explanation is correct.

Yeah, I probably won't be able to break it down weighted.  My results so far have very little in the way of 65+ voters, so it would produce some really odd results.  Fortunately for this, Southern states usually break on racial lines, not age lines, so having a predominantly 18-34 sample shouldn't be too terrible.  I won't weight it by gender yet, either, but I will post both the male and female numbers, if that sounds good.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Pre-Debate Unweighted Tennessee Numbers:
Trump 46
Clinton 26
Johnson 20
Others 8

Take it with a grain of salt due to the sample size of just under 100 people and the lack of weighting (I couldn't do that because 65+'s were 75% Clinton (3-1), so that would just make it look really weird with a sample based on four people!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Pre-Debate Unweighted Tennessee Numbers:
Trump 46
Clinton 26
Johnson 20
Others 8

Take it with a grain of salt due to the sample size of just under 100 people and the lack of weighting (I couldn't do that because 65+'s were 75% Clinton (3-1), so that would just make it look really weird with a sample based on four people!

Afraid the MoE on the margin is over 20 percentage points, so that result is (barely) within MoE.  Even ignoring weighting (which is a big deal) you'll need a bigger sample.  But thanks for doing this!

And thank you, cinyc, for being such an awesome resource.

I will be getting a bigger sample, but I just thought that the work-in-progress number was interesting enough to post.  I plan to weight it at the end as well (especially if the, as of now, massive gender gap holds up).  Currently, men are Trump +31, while women are dead even.  But, the female sample is still pretty small, as nearly half of women have answered that they are not registered to vote in Tennessee.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump 58
Clinton 25
Johnson 9
Stein 4
De La Fuente 3
Smith 2

This definitely seems like an outlier, but it was similar without weighting for gender and age (54-26-12).  Johnson was doing far better in the first half of the poll, but fell off later (debate effect?).  I will be back soon with crosstabs!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Some Crosstabs (raw data, not reweighted for gender/age):

18-24: Trump +24 over Clinton
25-34: Trump +22 over Johnson (49-27-12 for Clinton)
35-44: Trump +38 over Clinton
45-54: Trump +24 over Clinton
55-64: Trump +18 over Clinton
65+: Trump +53 over Clinton

Age/Gender Unknown: Trump +13 over Clinton (not factored into topline due to not knowing data to control for)

Male: Trump +37 over Clinton (58-21-15)
Female: Trump +26 over Clinton

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump 58
Clinton 25
Johnson 9
Stein 4
De La Fuente 3
Smith 2

This definitely seems like an outlier, but it was similar without weighting for gender and age (54-26-12).  Johnson was doing far better in the first half of the poll, but fell off later (debate effect?).  I will be back soon with crosstabs!

What question did you ask?

What candidate do you plan to vote for in Tennessee for President and Vice President of the United States

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What candidate do you plan to vote for in Tennessee for President and Vice President of the United States

What were the choices?  Did you randomize them?

The names of six candidates on the ballot and their VPs (randomized), with an "I am not registered to vote in Tennessee" option always at the end.  I recalculated all numbers as if the last option didn't exist (e.g. .365/.711 for Trump for 18-24s).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What candidate do you plan to vote for in Tennessee for President and Vice President of the United States

What were the choices?  Did you randomize them?

The names of six candidates on the ballot and their VPs (randomized), with an "I am not registered to vote in Tennessee" option always at the end.  I recalculated all numbers as if the last option didn't exist (e.g. .365/.711 for Trump for 18-24s).

Thanks.  I ended up with 22% not registered in South Dakota in the raw tally of my GCS SD survey.  What was yours?  (I'm wondering what percentage of non-registereds Google usually picks up and how much it varies by state).

26.6%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Atlas Google Consumer Surveys so far:

State	Sponsor	Margin	Weighted to	Dates
Utah	amdcpus	Trump +6	Likely Voters	Oct 12-13
South Dakota	cinyc	Trump +17	Registered Voters	Oct 15-17
Tennessee	ExtremeRepublican	Trump+33	Weighted;Unclear how	?
Idaho	anthony1691	Trump +23	Unweighted	Oct 18-21
Georgia	rafta_rafta	Trump +11	Unweighted	?
Utah	Speed of Sound	Trump +3	Likely Voters	Oct 19-22
Alaska	Moderate Pennsylvanian	Trump+5	Likely Voters	Oct 19-22
Washington	Alcon	Clinton +10	Likely Voters	Oct 21-23

I think I captured them all.  Please help me fill in the question marks.

October 18-20, RV (since that was the screen I employed with the last option)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I was going to run one of Florida or Iowa, but it didn't give me the $50 off coupon.

Unfortunately, the coupon offer seems to be over.

I will probably do another poll this week or next.  Any suggestions?  I prefer doing polls for rarely-polled states.  I'm thinking maybe Nebraska.  If the sample size is large enough, we might be able to guestimate NE-02.

Yeah, I think Minnesota would be interesting.  We really don't have enough polling there.