There's actually some pretty astonishing results beyond the "omfg Trump won"
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  There's actually some pretty astonishing results beyond the "omfg Trump won"
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Author Topic: There's actually some pretty astonishing results beyond the "omfg Trump won"  (Read 3694 times)
Beet
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« Reply #25 on: November 09, 2016, 06:47:12 AM »

If Hillary wins the popular vote, I will consider her the winner of the election, as more people voted for her than Trump.
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2016, 06:48:53 AM »

Did anybody see that Trump got 22% in Queens and 17% in Brooklyn
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #27 on: November 09, 2016, 06:49:48 AM »

If Hillary wins the popular vote, I will consider her the winner of the election, as more people voted for her than Trump.

You matter.
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Lachi
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« Reply #28 on: November 09, 2016, 06:53:01 AM »

I was REALLY surprised that trump obliterated Clinton that badly in Indiana #RIPNORTHWESTDEMADVANTAGE
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Sbane
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« Reply #29 on: November 09, 2016, 06:54:01 AM »

If Hillary wins the popular vote, I will consider her the winner of the election, as more people voted for her than Trump.

You matter.

Not my President.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #30 on: November 09, 2016, 06:55:27 AM »

If Hillary wins the popular vote, I will consider her the winner of the election, as more people voted for her than Trump.

You matter.

Not my President.
He is now. Say it with me PRESIDENT-ELECT DONALD JOHN TRUMP
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Sbane
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« Reply #31 on: November 09, 2016, 06:56:52 AM »

If Hillary wins the popular vote, I will consider her the winner of the election, as more people voted for her than Trump.

You matter.

Not my President.
He is now. Say it with me PRESIDENT-ELECT DONALD JOHN TRUMP

The person who got the most votes should win.
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iBizzBee
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« Reply #32 on: November 09, 2016, 06:58:12 AM »

If Hillary wins the popular vote, I will consider her the winner of the election, as more people voted for her than Trump.

You matter.

Not my President.
He is now. Say it with me PRESIDENT-ELECT DONALD JOHN TRUMP

More like dictator-elect.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #33 on: November 09, 2016, 07:11:05 AM »

Clinton is now ahead by more than 100,000 in the popular vote.

Even more remarkable, California just surpassed Vermont as the more Democratic state. Or is about to surpass as there are still more votes to be counted there, and they both now stand at Clinton +28.5%. California is now officially the second most Democratic state in the US, after Hawaii! Who would have thought that back in 2000, when W was seriously campaigning and advertising there seeing it as a battleground he had a shot at seriously attempting to win.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #34 on: November 09, 2016, 07:18:38 AM »

The swing map for this election, both on the state and county level, is going to look pretty amazing. I never thought Trump could win because even the Republicans I knew were repulsed by him. As it turns out, they were very representative of urban Republicans across the country, but completely the opposite of rural Republicans.
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Storebought
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« Reply #35 on: November 09, 2016, 07:20:56 PM »

The county results in TX: Clinton carrying Ft Bend (Sugar Land) but losing Jefferson (Beaumont). Emblematic of the entire election.

That, and the hilarity of the "winner" of this election getting fewer raw votes than Mitt Romney.
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emailking
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« Reply #36 on: November 09, 2016, 07:21:45 PM »

How about this one: Florida was actually close and don't tell me that we all didn't think that it was over if Clinton won it. However, in the end, Florida was not decisive. Think about that for a minute: Trump would have won WITHOUT FLORIDA. How freakin' crazy is that? The map overall really played us. Trump was superstrong in the midwest/rustbelt just like he said he would be.

If he'd lost Florida he may also have lost PA and MI, just by whatever change would be needed to realize that alteration. It couldn't happen in a vacuum. It could very well have been decisive. We'll never know for sure.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #37 on: November 09, 2016, 07:48:45 PM »

The swing in NOVA was astonishing.
Loudoun C+16
Fairfax C+36
Arlington C+60

2012:
Loudoun O+4
Fairfax O+19
Arlington O+40

If all you gave me was these three counties, I would think that the democratic candidate would be winning by 15 points. But Clinton getting obliterated in rural VA and lower black turnout in the SE stopped her from expanding the VA margin past +5.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #38 on: November 09, 2016, 07:54:12 PM »

Hamilton county being under 60% R is a little concerning. In all past elections it has been in the highest few GOP percentages in the state, in this election it was in the lower half.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #39 on: November 09, 2016, 07:59:21 PM »

As of right now, this is the ranking of the states from most Democratic to most Republican:

(D.C.: Clinton +88.7%)
1. Hawaii: C +32.2%
2. Vermont: C +28.5%
3. California: C +28.3%
4. Massachusetts: C +27.6%
5. Maryland: C +25.2%
6. New York: C +21.2%
7. Washington: C +18.7%
8. Illinois: C +16.0%
9. Rhode Island: C +14.6%
10. New Jersey: C +12.8%

11. Connecticut: C +12.4%
12. Delaware: C +11.5%
13. Oregon: C +10.2%
14. New Mexico: C +8.3%
15. Virginia: C +4.7%
16. Maine: C +3.0%
17. Colorado: C +2.6%
18. Nevada: C +2.4%
19. Minnesota: C +1.4%
20. New Hampshire: Trump +0.1%

21. Michigan: T +0.3%
22. Wisconsin: T +1.0%
23. Pennsylvania: T +1.1% (tipping point state)
24. Florida: T +1.4%
25. North Carolina: T +3.8%

26. Arizona: T +4.2%
27. Georgia: T +5.7%
28. Ohio: T +8.6%
29. Texas: T +9.1%
30. Iowa: T +9.4%

31. South Carolina: T +15.6%
32. Alaska: T +15.7%
33. Utah: T +16.9%
34. Mississippi: T +18.2%
35. Missouri: T +19.1%
36. Indiana: T +19.3%
37. Louisiana: T +19.7%
38. Kansas: T +21.9%
39. Montana: T +23.1%
40. Tennessee: T +26.2%

41. Arkansas: T +26.6%
42. Nebraska: T +27.2%
43. Alabama: T +28.3%
44. Idaho: T +30.1%
45. Kentucky: T +29.8%
45. South Dakota: T +29.8%
47. North Dakota: T +36.3%
48. Oklahoma: T +36.4%
49. West Virginia: T +42.2%
50. Wyoming: T +47.6%

Pennsylvania is currently projected to be the tipping point state, though there's virtually no difference between Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at the moment.

OR, CA, WA, and CO status will likely change on the chart since in heavily VbM states, there is still a lot of the vote yet to be counted (Regardless of whatever one reads in terms of 100% of precincts reporting).

Typically, these last votes tend to favor Democrats, so I wouldn't be surprised to see these four states bump up a few notches, and possibly a couple other states where a significant number of ballots are still being counted and will be counted post ED.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #40 on: November 09, 2016, 08:03:50 PM »

The largest County in Texas (Harris County) at +12 Dem PVI, and the largest margin a Democrat has received since 1964.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #41 on: November 09, 2016, 08:09:26 PM »

The swing in NOVA was astonishing.
Loudoun C+16
Fairfax C+36
Arlington C+60

2012:
Loudoun O+4
Fairfax O+19
Arlington O+40

If all you gave me was these three counties, I would think that the democratic candidate would be winning by 15 points. But Clinton getting obliterated in rural VA and lower black turnout in the SE stopped her from expanding the VA margin past +5.

Back when those polls came up that showed Trump edging Clinton here, I specifically stated rural turnout was needed to best Clinton here. And, given what we know now, very nearly did. Don't discount the GOP here anytime soon again.
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VPH
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« Reply #42 on: November 09, 2016, 10:40:29 PM »

-The magnitude of the blue collar county swing was massive; just look at Trumbull County, OH wow
-Great Plains states where I had assumed Clinton would do alright in swung hard right
-The spread between downballot Dems like Bullock, Justice, and Peterson and their constituents on a presidential level was huge
-Evan McMullin failing to win a county and coming third in UT
-Texas and Arizona both closer than Iowa or Ohio
-The degree to which suburbs in some places swung to Hillary
-Jill Stein's third best state was Kansas
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bilaps
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« Reply #43 on: November 09, 2016, 10:53:02 PM »

How about this one: Florida was actually close and don't tell me that we all didn't think that it was over if Clinton won it. However, in the end, Florida was not decisive. Think about that for a minute: Trump would have won WITHOUT FLORIDA. How freakin' crazy is that? The map overall really played us. Trump was superstrong in the midwest/rustbelt just like he said he would be.

Don't want to be a monday morning quertarback but I was writing all along that if polls are wrong by just a couple of points nationaly and swing goes to Trump's favor nobody can guarantee what map would look like. It happened, Trump train came.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #44 on: November 09, 2016, 11:06:21 PM »

California's vote is down about 4 million from 4 years ago. (Giving you a case of Trump losing 61-33 instead of Romney losing 60-37, but he was a half million votes closer to Hillary.)

The national vote looks to have declined from 129 million to 126 million this time, so the drop in the national vote is entirely down to California, with the other 49 states and D.C. flat to slightly up.

Bernie Sanders looks to have gotten 10% in Vermont purely from write-in votes.

The combined third party vote looks like it'll be around 5%.

The high level of third party support means in 41 states there's a ballot-qualified party that is not the Democrats or Republicans.
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jfern
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« Reply #45 on: November 09, 2016, 11:08:38 PM »

California's vote is down about 4 million from 4 years ago.

Yes, our vote totals crash about 4 million every Presidential election until they finish counting them.
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StateBoiler
fe234
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« Reply #46 on: November 09, 2016, 11:10:17 PM »

If Hillary wins the popular vote, I will consider her the winner of the election, as more people voted for her than Trump.

This isn't 2000. In 2000, Gore beat Bush in the popular vote and had a candidate in Nader that took the state wins away from him that would've voted for Gore before Bush.

Here, Gary Johnson logically took more votes from Trump than Clinton and had higher support than Nader did. And Evan McMullin, unlike Johnson and Jill Stein, was a purely reactionary anti-Trump candidacy. The gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the national popular vote is less than half of what Evan McMullin got in very partial ballot access.

People don't vote based on the national popular vote. If they did, their votes would change.
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StateBoiler
fe234
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« Reply #47 on: November 09, 2016, 11:11:58 PM »

California's vote is down about 4 million from 4 years ago.

Yes, our vote totals crash about 4 million every Presidential election until they finish counting them.

Politico says 100% reporting. Right now not counting write-in votes they have 8.92 million votes recorded. In 2012, they had 13.05 million votes.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #48 on: November 09, 2016, 11:14:10 PM »

California's vote is down about 4 million from 4 years ago.

Yes, our vote totals crash about 4 million every Presidential election until they finish counting them.

True.... would not be surprised to see Clinton winning the national popular vote by 1.5-2.0 Million while losing the Presidential Election.....

National disgrace if so, and time to abolish the Electoral College, either that or West Coast succession....
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Desroko
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« Reply #49 on: November 09, 2016, 11:14:17 PM »

California's vote is down about 4 million from 4 years ago.

And how much will it be down by once they actually finish counting the ballots?
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