OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[BuckeyeNut]

I know there used to be one of these, and I have a very specific interest in my state, so why not revive it. This we'll be a space to discuss not only the Governor's race, but the row officers and the state legislature as well.

What we know right now.

Governor

Republicans

All three of the top row officers are top prospects here.

Attorney General and former Senator Mike DeWine is officially in, although he isn't actively campaigning; and Lt. Governor Mary Taylor is finally official, having made a statement before quickly retracting it

Secretary of State John Husted has made a lot of statements to the effect he will run; and Congressman Jim Renacci has been looking at a run, having commissioned a poll. With Renacci or without, this is going to be a crowded primary with big players that could leave the nominee battered and bruised.

Democrats

Prospects here are much more scattered, though there are many.

Youngstown area politician, Senate Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni, is officially in, and the first candidate to announce, thanks to Ryan declining a run. Former Akron-area Congresswoman Betty Sutton has announced a run. Former Cincinnati-area State Representative and failed '14 statewide candidate, Connie Pillich, has also announced and so far is the only candidate with a website. In between Sutton and Pillich former no-name Wayne County Commissioner Dave Kiefer made an announcement, though no one paid any attention at the time.

CFPB Director and former Attorney General Richard Cordray will likely be out of a job soon, and Republicans are already on the attack in case he does announce; State Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill will be aged out of office in '18 and he's mulling a run unless Cordray or former Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner jump in; and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley is "considering" a run.

Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley; former State Senator and failed Secretary of State candidate Nina Turner; and Assistant Secretary of Commerce and former Mayor of Youngstown Jay Williams have all been mentioned as potential candidates, although they're less likely.

Congressman Tim Ryan, after much teasing, is out.

Lt. Governor

I'm not going to speculate on Lt. Governor since it's not something people actively run for.

Attorney General

Republicans

Current Auditor Dave Yost is in.

Democrats

Steve Dettelbach, who resigned as the U.S. Attorney for Northern Ohio in February, is in.

Secretary of State

Republicans

State Representative Dorothy Pelanda is in. State Senator Frank LaRose is also thought to be angling for the job. This could be a down-ballot Kasich v. Trump proxy battle.

Democrats

State Representative Kathleen Clyde seems to be the only Democrat angling for this position. She'd pushed voting rights-related legislation during her tenure, and as the Representative of Kent, has made inroads with various college groups.

Treasurer

Republicans

State Representative Robert Sprauge of Findlay is officially in, having previously served as a County Auditor and Treasurer.

Democrats

State Representative and former ODP Chairman David Leland is rumored to be in the mix.

Auditor

Republicans

Former Senate President Faber has passed on challenging Yost for Attorney General and has declared his intentions to run for Auditor.

Democrats

Lorain Mayor Chase Ritenauer is considering a run.

[BuckeyeNut]

Updated the OP with some thoughts on Lt. Governor and Attorney General candidates.

To be fair to Kingpoleon, Austria has evidently stayed pretty involved in the OH GOP. Treasurer would be a significant step down from Congressman, but if a former Senator can make himself content as Attorney General...

No chance of an Ed FitzGerald comeback, I presume?

And absolutely not.

[BuckeyeNut]

Even though he lost his bid against Pelosi, I'm now of the opinion any exposure is good exposure for Tim Ryan. I know some people think he's a paper tiger, but I'd be more worried of that being true of Cordray who has lost just about as many races as he's won.

[BuckeyeNut]

Even though he lost his bid against Pelosi, I'm now of the opinion any exposure is good exposure for Tim Ryan. I know some people think he's a paper tiger, but I'd be more worried of that being true of Cordray who has lost just about as many races as he's won.

I'm of the opinion that Ryan's whole run against Pelosi was partially based on giving him anti-Pelosi bonafides in a gubernatorial general election.

Definitely could be.

But a small wrench in that scheme now, as Senate Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni has all but announced he's running in '18. Schiavoni, like Ryan, hails from Youngstown, and it would be very hard for him to run in a primary with Ryan. This may indicate Ryan isn't going to run for Governor and plans on sticking in the House, as if he were to retire Schiavoni would be a natural candidate to replace him.

[BuckeyeNut]

So Jay Williams, Tim Ryan, and Joe Schiavoni all three come from Youngstown? Interesting...

Yes, though Williams has said if Ryan gets in, he won't.

[BuckeyeNut]

So Jay Williams, Tim Ryan, and Joe Schiavoni all three come from Youngstown? Interesting...

Yes, though Williams has said if Ryan gets in, he won't.

If Ryan gets in, I could easily see Schiavoni just running for his House seat.

It's definitely possible Schiavoni is just trying to smoke Ryan's true intentions out.

Am I the only who can see Nina Turner if she runs on a "Im a Bernie guy who told Hillary not to ignore you guys" platform?

As winning or as running?

I could definitely see her running, but winning? Not so much. And I say that as a proud Bernie partisan.

Turner would get crushed in a state wide race, though there's definitely a movement to draft her.  Her political future lies in Cleveland, if anywhere.

[BuckeyeNut]

Sherrod really is tops.

State Representative Kathleen Clyde seems to be the only Democrat angling for this position. She'd pushed voting rights-related legislation during her tenure, and as the Representative of Kent, has made inroads with various college groups.

Please, no. She's pretty bad. Also, where do y'all think Mandel will end up?

What do you have against Clyde?

And like Malcolm X, I'm fairly certain Mandel will run against Brown again. He put out an ad with Urban Meyer this summer that, while ostensibly for the Treasury, was totally made to just build up his profile. Could get ugly with Tiberi in the primary as Kasich's guy.

[BuckeyeNut]

Internal GOP politics heating up. Trump Supporter and Stark County GOP Vice-Chair Kate Timken is challenging RPO Chairman Matt Borges.

[BuckeyeNut]

It might just be the alliteration, but the idea of "Lieutenant Governor Lou Gentile" is growing on me.

[BuckeyeNut]

ROTFL at anyone who thinks Mandel could beat Brown.  I'm not even remotely worried about this one if Mandel is the Republican nominee.

I've long felt this way, but after this cycle, I'm taking nothing for granted.

I wonder if Michael Coleman still has any designs on being governor. He ran in 2006 but had some marriage issues that caused him to drop out, and was Lee Fisher's running mate in 2002. I heard rumblings about 2018 when he decided not to run for mayor again, but I haven't heard a peep about him since.

Doubtful. Coleman would probably do better running for Governor "from cover" as Mayor. The city's track record over the last 6 years has been terrific.

One would assume that after today, with the Heartbeat Bill being passed and Kasich warning that a recession could be imminent, things will get interesting. If these two issues really become a problem, especially the recession, I would expect that would advantage the Dems.

They also passed the "Guns Everywhere" Bill. Could energize otherwise apathetic students.

[BuckeyeNut]

Tim Ryan is stoking the flames.

[BuckeyeNut]

I can see two different scenarios for the Ohio Gubernatorial race

1. DeWine and Husted battle it out, and their attacks to eachother get so nasty that a third candidate (either Taylor or Renacci at this point) rises in the polls and gets the nomination.

2. DeWine and Husted battle it out, but are so dominant that it forces the lower tier candidates (again, Taylor and Renacci) to run for something else. I suspect this is where Mandel's primary challenge in the Senate arises.

Honestly, if Renacci doesn't see an opening, I doubt he runs for a lower statewide office. Also, Taylor seems to be the favored candidate of Kasich, even if DeWine and Husted are bigger names.

[BuckeyeNut]

Michael Coleman is the dark horse here if he runs I think he could be the favored to win of Ohio does hit a recession

Coleman's a has-been, 2006 was his last best shot and he couldn't even win the nomination.

Wouldn't call him a "has-been," but his last good chance to run statewide was probably in 2014.

New article out in the Plain Dealer. There's a large group of Bernie supporters, both within and outside of Ohio urging Turner to run. The interesting bit is that they say they'd also support Justice O'Neill were he to run for Governor.

[BuckeyeNut]

Updated the OP with potential Auditor candidates, which rounds out the 2018 state executives.

And while I didn't include him in the update as there's no indication he's considering, I'd love to see Chillicothe Mayor Luke Feeney run for Auditor. He got some national exposure at the DNC, and previously served as city auditor. Another reason I'd like to see Feeney run is because I am a little worried that the Democratic ticket is going to be very NE OH heavy.

Though, at the same time, Democrats have been taking the region for granted as of late.

[BuckeyeNut]

As stated previously, there's a good chance Tiberi will challenge Mandel as the Kasich-candidate.

A new article in the Plain Dealer suggests Faber will not challenge Yost for Attorney General and will instead comfort himself with Auditor. Although it also opens the door to the possibility Trump appoints him as a U.S. Attorney.

[BuckeyeNut]

O'Neill continues to stir up speculation about running for Governor. It would be a real shame to lose the only Democrat on the State Supreme Court, if he did run. Interestingly, leaders of the Run Nina Run group are also supportive of O'Neill.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Ohio GOP is having their election for new chairman today. The new chairman will need 34 votes of the 66 member committee. Shockingly, Trump surrogate and Summit County GOP Vice-Chair Jane Timken is leading Kasich apostle Matt Borges 33-32. One of the Committee members is out sick, and Timken and Borges are now in the midst of negotiations. This is hugely shocking.

EDIT: Timken won. This is a coup against Kasich. This will have ramifications on the '18 primary. Would predict Husted to be the likely winner, now.

[BuckeyeNut]

Not per se, but he's shaping up to be a compromise candidate. Taylor's going to be out the out and out with Trump-ites as Kasich's preferred pick and DeWine's people are liable to be purged.

The Ohio GOP is having their election for new chairman today. The new chairman will need 34 votes of the 66 member committee. Shockingly, Trump surrogate and Summit County GOP Vice-Chair Jane Timken is leading Kasich apostle Matt Borges 33-32. One of the Committee members is out sick, and Timken and Borges are now in the midst of negotiations. This is hugely shocking.

EDIT: Timken won. This is a coup against Kasich. This will have ramifications on the '18 primary. Would predict Husted to be the likely winner, now.

Good or bad for the Dems?

Hesitant "good."  In the arguments for Borges, Timken's inexperience was pushed as a major selling point, and not wrongly. We'll see, obviously. Borges is being kept around in some emeritus position, but he and the Trump wing really don't get a long, so it's a real question if he'll stick around.

[BuckeyeNut]

Yeah, Mayor of CLE seems like the most likely future office for Nina, if any. She didn't just burn bridges with the establishment, but with a lot of the black community, too, as I understand it.

[BuckeyeNut]

Turns out Mary Taylor made a secret endorsement of Timken in the final days before the chairman vote. What a snake in the grass. Kasich must be pissed.

[BuckeyeNut]

I guess we will see. DeWine might now be the de facto Kasich candidate, but just as Trump has organized an ousting of Kasich in the state party, Kasich organized an ousting of DeWine only a few years ago.

I wouldn't make light of county officials. State Legislative candidates run statewide all the time, and they represent fewer people than a fair number of county officials. Knocking Budish is folly, though I doubt he runs. Yes, Fitz sort of soiled the idea of Cuyahoga County Executive running for Goveror, but it is the largest executive position next to the Governor, and Budish was Speaker of the House.

[BuckeyeNut]

True as that may be, Borges did get half the votes. It'll be interesting to see the breakdown as it progresses.

ION: Dettelbach now raising money for an AG race and "Dettelbach for Ohio" has been registered by the Ruppert Co.

[BuckeyeNut]

True as that may be, Borges did get half the votes. It'll be interesting to see the breakdown as it progresses.

ION: Dettelbach now raising money for an AG race and "Dettelbach for Ohio" has been registered by the Ruppert Co.

This might be an office the Democrats in Ohio could pick up. He seems to be a strong candidate on paper. However, going up against a competent State Auditor could be difficult.

I very briefly got to meet Dettelbach, recently. He's got a commanding (positive) presence.

Is there any definitive statement or reason that would explain why Kasich himself isn't going to run for Senate?

The pre-Nov. 8th answer was, "he wants to run for POTUS again in '20, and the Senate would be a major distraction."

The new answer is, "his brand has taken a major hit in Ohio with his non-support of Trumpkins hurting him internally." If he did run, I'm sure Trump would get involved in the primary.

[BuckeyeNut]

Frank LaRose and Mike Duffey might run for statewide office. I would like to see one of them end up as a Governor or Senator eventually.

My OHGOP friends are telling me that LaRose for SecState is almost a done deal.

I told you that might happen here:

I would guess:

Governor: Mike DeWine
Lieutenant Governor: Frank LaRose
Secretary of State: Mike Duffey

Mandel is term limited out. LaRose and Duffey could switch positions. LaRose IIRC has introduced two election reform bills, while Duffey doesn't seem to have much of a record on election bills.

And I told y'all it might happen in the OP.

All kidding aside, I'm not sure what makes LaRose such a lock other than his great personal wealth.

[BuckeyeNut]

I've heard it second hand from a reliable source than Kucinich is going to announce a Gubernatorial run within the next week. Not sure I by it, since I can't find it substantiated anywhere in speculation, but ... it's fun, so I thought I'd throw it out there.