Eternal Sunshine of the Democratic Mind

[The Other Castro]

^ Thank you lol. Also, my future posts with county-level maps are courtesy of Gass3268, who was a great help.

[The Other Castro]

Steve

November 3rd, 2020

10:02 PM

The Harris campaign didn’t have it under control, Steve Bullock feared, as he saw some of the early returns come in from the Midwest. That was the agonizing part, seeing Trump lead in must win states and not knowing whether that was going to change or stay the same. Someone tried to show him something about a projection needle from The New York Times suggesting that Michigan and Wisconsin were complete tossups, but Steve didn’t care to see anything like that. Over the last 20 minutes, New Mexico was called for Harris and Missouri for Trump, and the 10 PM closings awarded Utah and Montana to Trump while Nevada and Iowa were deemed too early to call. Steve had no idea what was taking some of the states so long to report, while others were adding up their votes rather quickly.

Florida: 95% in, Harris 50%, Trump 48%
Virginia: 82% in, Harris 49%, Trump 48%
North Carolina: 81% in, Trump 50%, Harris 48%
Ohio: 67% in, Trump 51%, Harris 46%
Texas: 65% in, Trump 50%, Harris 46%
Colorado: 53% in, Harris 50%, Trump 45%
Georgia: 45% in, Trump 57%, Harris 40%
New Hampshire: 41% in, Harris 49%, Trump 47%
Pennsylvania: 34% in, Harris 55%, Trump 42%
Wisconsin: 28% in, Trump 51%, Harris 46%
Michigan: 24% in, Trump 49%, Harris 48%

Obviously Harris wasn’t going to lose Wisconsin by five while winning Pennsylvania by 13, but the reporting pattern of these states was still discombobulating and annoying. At least she had finally taken the lead in Virginia, and was showing some surprising strength in Texas given how much of the vote had already come in. Steve Bullock was optimistic about his own race as well, with the polls having just closed in Montana for his senate race against Steve Daines. Given the 52-48 Senate, Democrats hoped to gain at least two seats and take the majority under a Harris presidency.

In addition to Montana, Democrats were feeling good about Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. Jared Polis was matching Harris’ mid-sized lead so far, and Anthony Foxx was outperforming her by a good four to five points. They felt best in Maine, however, where Susan Collins’ retirement had opened up an easy path for Democrat Chellie Pingree. They had unfortunately been unable to persuade Mark Begich to run for his old seat in Alaska, and likewise settled for less than top recruits in Iowa, Georgia, and the Arizona special election.

Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 118 Electoral Votes
Kamala Harris/John Hickenlooper - 109 Electoral Votes
Uncalled - 226 Electoral Votes

[Duke of York]

Amazing timeline this is. This is beginning to feel like 2016 all over again. Michigan and Wisconsin are worrisome but Florida and Pennsylvania  look good.

[King Lear]

If I’d be seeing these results in real life I’d assume Trump would be on track for reelection.

[America Needs R'hllor]

If I’d be seeing these results in real life I’d assume Trump would be on track for reelection.

You'd assume that even if Harris was leading in all 50 states by a 90% margin

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Trump at 48% in Va. with 82% of the vote counted? Fake news

P.S. ill be sad if this TL ends with this election night coverage but it will have been worth it

[Da2017]

The resuits in Texas should be a concern to the Republicans going forward, whether Harris wins or lose.  Looks like Florida is about in. If she wins Florida she probably will flip one of the rust belt states at least.

[The Other Castro]

Trump at 48% in Va. with 82% of the vote counted? Fake news

P.S. ill be sad if this TL ends with this election night coverage but it will have been worth it

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If I’d be seeing these results in real life I’d assume Trump would be on track for reelection.

You'd assume that even if Harris was leading in all 50 states by a 90% margin

And you'd point that out, like the rest of the panicking Atlas Dems, (btw we should try and get those fake post things like the "Atlas in 1861" thread to see how the forum is reacting to this), in a desperate effort to reassure yourself that everything is alright

[King Lear]

I know I should be more patient, but I really want another update.

[Mike Thick]

I know I should be more patient, but I really want another update.

We all do too, but you don't need to post about it every other day

[The Other Castro]

Daniel

November 3rd, 2020

11:09 PM

“Jesus Christ just f**king call Florida already,” Daniel Lopez muttered aloud, letting the stress of the night get the better of him. Kamala Harris' campaign manager needed at least something to tide him over while the wait continued over the closer states. The past hour thankfully produced wins for Harris in Virginia and Colorado, though they unsurprisingly lost Ohio. Their flirtation with the margin in Texas was brought to an end as well when the state was called for Trump, though even some of their most optimistic models didn’t have it this narrow. The 11 PM states also failed to shocked anyone, with Harris winning California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington, while Trump carried Idaho.

Daniel tried not to show it, lest the rest of the staff catch his contagious anxiety, but he had no idea what was going to happen. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were way too close, much closer than they were prepared for. On the other hand, they had a 500 vote lead in Arizona with over half of the vote in. The vote counting was agonizingly slow in Nevada with nothing reporting yet, but he doubted that it was in trouble given the favorable numbers he was seeing in Arizona and California.

Pennsylvania: 68% in, Harris 50%, Trump 48%
New Hampshire: 59% in, Harris 49%, Trump 47%
Arizona: 58% in, Harris 48%, Trump 48%
Wisconsin: 57% in, Trump 50%, Harris 47%
Michigan: 48% in, Harris 49%, Trump 48%
Iowa: 40% in, Harris 55%, Trump 42%
Georgia: 49% in, Trump 56%, Harris 42%

How did they still not have any numbers in Maine, Minnesota, or Nevada yet? One of his staffers told him that the officials in those states had technical difficulties, and were going to release huge dumps of votes soon, but this hold up was ridiculous. Sh*t, OK, what do we need, what do we need, Daniel kept repeating in his head. Making sure that nobody saw him, he quietly pulled up 270towin.com for some quick math. He was confident they were going to take Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine and its 1st district, and probably Minnesota. That was...261 electoral votes. The number stared back at Daniel, sending him into a brief existential crisis. It wasn’t enough, not yet at least. It would be amazing if they were to somehow rebound in North Carolina, and-

“Hey, Dan, AP just called North Carolina. It’s gone.”

Well, sh*t. Iowa and Alaska were probably non-starters, despite how deceptively favorable the early numbers were. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona all had at least nine electoral votes, so they only needed to win one of them. But they were all so goddamn close. Assuming the rest of the states went as Daniel expected, this was going to be a long night. A burst of clapping and yelling suddenly filled the room. Daniel turned around to see big check marks next to pictures of Kamala Harris and the state of Florida filling their TV screens.

Daniel sighed with relief, closed his laptop, and went to get himself a drink from the bar.  

Kamala Harris/John Hickenlooper - 238 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 193 Electoral Votes
Uncalled - 104 Electoral Votes

[Gass3268]

North Carolina is always a tease.

[Da2017]

Not looking good for trunp with Florida called.

[MycroftCZ]

Go Kamala!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Fuck.

[Devout Centrist]

I'm going to guess Trump wins. The vote dumps from Minnesota, Maine, and others are going to show him with leads in one of those states. In addition, it looks like he can still eek out a victory in the Midwest

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Fuck yes.

[MAINEiac4434]

Madam President.

[Mycool]

One of my favorite threads on here.

[Mike Thick]

Prediction: Harris wins the popular vote by substantially more than Hillary did but still loses

[Duke of York]

Prediction: Harris wins the popular vote by substantially more than Hillary did but still loses

I wont be very happy if it turns out like that. I predict that Nevada will go blue as will New Hampshire  and Minnesota and i suspect an upset in Arizona.

[libertpaulian]

I honestly think you should have given her Ohio.  Black turnout in the cities would have tipped it to her.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Madam President.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I honestly think you should have given her Ohio.  Black turnout in the cities would have tipped it to her.

The fact that Trump carried Ohio to me signals that his numbers among whites are through the roof, which is why places like MN are in play once again. I think Puerto Ricans tipped Florida (atlas) red, an outcome unique to ‘Flarda.